OT: Weekly Market Update

[Jeffreauxdawg]

We have eeked back into the uptrend. If we stay in it, new all time highs by the end of the July.... With 30+ million people drawing unemployment compared to 1.5 million in February.

I am also posting the Nasdaq and Russell so you can see that big cap tech (Apple, Amazon, Google, FB, and Microsoft) are really carrying the market.

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I also have all of the big sector ETFs that will show what is lagging behind and might present value vs the sectors that are priced rather handsomely to say the least.

Leaders

Technology ETF (XLK)
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Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)
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Healthcare ETF (XLV)
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Retail ETF (XRT)
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Laggards

Energy ETF (XLE)
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Financials ETF (XLF)
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Transportation ETF (XTN)
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Industrials ETF (XLI)
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Consumer Staples ETF (XLP)
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These might help you identify some sectors to go shop for individual stocks in... If you are a value Investor, don't discount the leading sectors, use the ticket to go investigate the holdings... For example Consumer discretionary is a leader because it's weighted nearly 25% to Amazon now, but Starbucks is in there too at 25% below it's highs.

Also, I like to think through investments by looking at sectors. For example. Tesla is now the most valuable auto company in the world even though it sells 8% of the vehicles Toyota sells, is nowhere near as well run, and is a long way off on quality. That makes me think the market really believes electric vehicles will take over sooner than later... Not good for oil stocks. So yes, energy looks like a value, but Tesla valuations say otherwise... Happy hunting.

See you next week when the S&P 500 hits 5000!

 

[57stratdawg]

Seems like we’re more or less headed sideways outside of tech. I’m sure there will be some short term movement with earnings reports coming up, but everyone is watching headlines as much as guidance and performance.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Seems like we’re more or less headed sideways outside of tech. I’m sure there will be some short term movement with earnings reports coming up, but everyone is watching headlines as much as guidance and performance.

That makes sense, but I won't put anything past this market.
The only thing that is somewhat logical to me is with bond rates so low and money printing do vast, the market is treating Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and FB as bonds or some kind of inflation hedges....

I mean FB is almost back to all time highs as advertisers bail and the president is out to destroy them. I might invest in emus... Seems safer.

 

[rynodawg]

I FOMO’d a decent amount back into Tesla, with stop limits this time that I update as it goes up to absurd levels. Sold earlier this year, thinking that luxury car sales would take a hit during a recession.

Will be interesting to see what happens with unemployment, and with retail spending, when the extra $600/wk runs out.

 

[Seinfeld]

It will be interesting. Many have been questioning the current definition of “unemployed” for several months now, and I think we’re about to quickly find out just how many of the 30M people have been working the system since April. Considering the fact that congress doesn’t seem to even be considering an extension of the $600/wk extra benefit, something tells me that they have substantial data in front of them that indicates a high level of abuse.

That said, there’s obviously some form of additional stimulus coming, so while it may look different from the last round, money’s going to be pumped out again.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Small caps are most representative of main street....

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Small caps are most representative of main street....

They are much more indebted than large caps and before the pandemic, about 40% of them were not profitable. I wonder if there is a sector that would really take it in the chin when they start defaulting....

 

[Seinfeld]

I didn’t want to start an entirely new thread on this since we’re still in the same week, so I’m just bumping this one, but are there any signs at all that Tech and the Nasdaq will be slowing down?

I was getting tired last week from having money sitting around and doing nothing in a couple real estate funds, so I moved over to ARKW and OGIG and good lord... it just seems to keep reaching for another peak every day. Any reasons to be nervous about continuing to ride those guys?

 

[rynodawg]

I like ARK investments, have some in ARKK, but am hesitant to put any more in right now. As you know they are just riding Tech prices up to the moon at the moment. I’m ready to sell at first sign the market no longer considers Tech the only safe haven,

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I didn’t want to start an entirely new thread on this since we’re still in the same week, so I’m just bumping this one, but are there any signs at all that Tech and the Nasdaq will be slowing down?

I was getting tired last week from having money sitting around and doing nothing in a couple real estate funds, so I moved over to ARKW and OGIG and good lord... it just seems to keep reaching for another peak every day. Any reasons to be nervous about continuing to ride those guys?

Everything is pretty much running on speculation at this point (gambling.) ARKW has its 2 biggest positions in TSLA and SQ, and both of those are currently valued at 10x revenue or more. So with that in mind, if sales remained the same, it would take 10 years of never paying employees, rent, suppliers, or anything else to break even. TSLA has not finished a year with actual profits yet, probably would have this year, but who knows now.

OGIG is more into the FANGMAN stocks. Just as extended in there own right, but at least profits and track records are there.

Growth stocks don't need to be analyzed the way value stocks do, but I would have to say we are pretty 17ing extended right now. I have been active in growth stocks for a long time and can tell you that picking stocks in this world are about 3 things... Earnings growth, institutional support, and overall market trend.

So to answer your question, yes there is a buttload of risk factors, but it doesn't seem to matter right now. Everyone is discounting the risks because sticks are the only game in town. My advice is draw your line in the sand on what you are willing to risk losing and put a stop order in at that level. If it moves up lock in your profits.

If you are long term interested in growth stock investing, Bill O'Neil's How To Make Money in Stocks is a must read. He is the Buffet/Graham of growth stock investing. Investors.com is the website for research on growth stock investing.