Dr Fauci has been quoted

[SheltonChoked]

We've got pretty good data from Iceland. We've got good'ish data from other places that allow some predictions. Certainly not ideal, but we have to work with the information we have.

Those are words from "The Lancet" so argue with them.

Still, you keep using a 0.4% CFR, I have not seen that in a medical paper. Just your "adjusted math".

 

[paindonthurt_]

So you are saying don’t self quarantine?

 

[L4Dawg]

Who the hell do you associate with or are you just full of **** once again? You know "less than 30" people who have had the virus, yet you know "several" who have died. That would imply a death rate well into the double digits. You know "more than 10, less than 30" people who have had the virus. Yet total cases in MS is only 9,908 as of today. That's 0.3% of the population. So, if you know 1,000 people, you should know about 3 who have had the virus. Personally, I know 2, a husband & wife. His is about like a bad case of the flu, hers is very minor.

Lucky them. I live in a hotspot with a lot of dead. I've never seen obits coming that fast here, ever. Thank God it's slowed down some. Not all of them we know are here either.

 

[SheltonChoked]

They don’t have Amazon, CVS, Sams Club and other delivery services where your parents live? Do they not have a local church or agency that can assist them with grocery deliveries?

I completely forgot about the Edinburg Costco****

I thought you went to MSU.

They live in rural MS in counties that have exploded in cases over the past 2 weeks...

They have Amazon, but delivery times takes weeks and they cannot get meat, vegetables, or fruit.

No CVS.

No Sam's Club.

No local delivery service.

They do have a local Church with a bunch of other old people.

Again, if it were not for selfish, Idiot ********, they could go to the store themselves at low risk.

But there are too many that are too concerned about being a selfish *******.

If I cannot trust you to wear a mask, I cannot trust you to protect them in any way. So I assume you have it. And we have to shut down the world.

So, 17 you, "Lee". Selfish MF.

 

[johnson86-1]

Those are words from "The Lancet" so argue with them.

And their numbers aren't inconsistent with what I am saying. I suspect .4% will be within the estimate based on the size of the population. Also that's a very unrepresentative sample. You have typically older passengers and relatively young crew. Not sure how all that shakes out.

Still, you keep using a 0.4% CFR, I have not seen that in a medical paper. Just your "adjusted math".

Here's something indicating .1 to .2 IFR, although it relies on antibody tests. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Here's something estimating 1.3% IFR when you ignore asymptomatic people. So if 1/2 the people are asymptomatic, that would be about .65%.

Here's something estimating .75%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1
He's something with a range of .39 to 1.33% www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1

Here's something with references to different estimates of the CFR and IFR. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

A lot of these may be circular and point back to the same data, and we may not have great data for a while, but we have to use what we have.

 

[RocketDawg]

Who the hell do you associate with or are you just full of **** once again? You know "less than 30" people who have had the virus, yet you know "several" who have died. That would imply a death rate well into the double digits. You know "more than 10, less than 30" people who have had the virus. Yet total cases in MS is only 9,908 as of today. That's 0.3% of the population. So, if you know 1,000 people, you should know about 3 who have had the virus. Personally, I know 2, a husband & wife. His is about like a bad case of the flu, hers is very minor.

His numbers do seem like an exaggeration, but who knows? I don't know anybody, or even know the names of anybody, who have tested positive. I don't even know anybody, period, who has been tested.

Remember though - Mississippi may only have 9900 cases, but they only test people who have symptoms. Those without symptoms may (or may not) be much higher. You can't just walk in and say you want to be tested, without symptoms.

 

[mount lefroy]

No, the standards recognized the need for adjustment based on local conditions. Mississippi has had about .3% of its population test positive. Let's say three times that many people actually have it or have had it, to account for limited testing and asymptomatic cases. That's around 1% of the population. You want Mississippi to stay locked down over that, but a state with ten times as many active infections per capita should be able to open as long as they used to have even more?

Sound public policy has to recognize reality. The reality is people aren't going to stay locked up for months on end. In hindsight, we made a mistake, granted an understandable one, locking up places with low infection rates. Now when infection rates do start to move up, people will probably hesitate to go back under lock down.

I've been charting these numbers in excel for the last 16 days. They have trended upwards. Unless one wants to lie about what the numbers really are (and they are actually worse because of people who have not reported their illness to a hospital) they have progressively risen since the last week of April.

The job now is to not have an outbreak that causes us to overwhelm hospitals and cause us shut down with martial law. The only other example we have is the spanish flu and it had a second spike worse than the first. The fact that we havent contact tested in Mississippi should tell you that many have not been exposed. I want all states to do what is best for their citizens. But mississippi in particular, it needs to follow the professional advice and trend downwards for 14 days. It has to do with population density as to whether a number trend is acceptable or not. What is true in New York isnt true for Mississippi. But to aggravate the situation based on the theory of economic death is to ignore the proof of actual viral death. That is just plain ignorance.

 

[Hubcitydog]

Pretty sure fauci jumped the shark today. I’ll echo Rand- he is not the only person to decide what we do.

 

[MrKotter]

17 that guy. Nothing more than a lifer politician.

Finally seeing the light?

 

[RocketDawg]

Good. So you understand that if you go get the products off the shelves of a store where a large number of people are touching the same products and are milling around you, that is increasing the chances you are going to bring it to your dad?

The fewer people out and about stimulating our economy, decreases the chance that someone will give it to you or the products you bring to him.

His parents have to eat. Where else is he supposed to get food for them if he doesn't go to the store?

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Yep,

Rand Paul kicked him in the teeth today.

One must watch all of Paul's comments to get the full story.

I've seen segments that take it out of context.

 

[dog12]

I'll take "What do ****** human beings say" for $1,000, please Alex.

No one should have to force you to be considerate of other people. In a better world, it would be everyone's default position. We're all in this together after all.

Are you trying to hurt my feelings?

 

[dog12]

So which laws do you support?

What are you talking about?

 

[Bulldawg77]

I completely forgot about the Edinburg Costco****

I thought you went to MSU.

They live in rural MS in counties that have exploded in cases over the past 2 weeks...

They have Amazon, but delivery times takes weeks and they cannot get meat, vegetables, or fruit.

No CVS.

No Sam's Club.

No local delivery service.

They do have a local Church with a bunch of other old people.

Again, if it were not for selfish, Idiot ********, they could go to the store themselves at low risk.

But there are too many that are too concerned about being a selfish *******.

If I cannot trust you to wear a mask, I cannot trust you to protect them in any way. So I assume you have it. And we have to shut down the world.

So, 17 you, "Lee". Selfish MF.

You from leake county?? So am i

 

[dorndawg]

That the same Rand who set up his own ophthalmology "certification" because he couldn't get certified by the real one?

 

[OneParticularHarbor]

Southern Miss asks what a stadium 1/3 full is.

We’ve been social distancing for years. But we do sell beer.

 

[engie]

I've been charting these numbers in excel for the last 16 days.

Why would you bother doing this when the MSDH posts 4-6 better graphs updated daily? Plus covidtrackingproject on testing and worldometers on testing/positive rates.

The job now is to not have an outbreak that causes us to overwhelm hospitals

View attachment 16156
Per Covid19, Mississippi has 5733 total beds available. 341 ICU beds available.

More testing, more positives, basically constant hospitalizations, severe cases(ICU), and ventilators.
View attachment 16157

We've basically got 10k positives here now in 100k tests. That number is going to be between 1/25 and 1/75 the actual number of people that have had it adding in asymptomatic and mild cases that weren't tested. Between 250,000 and 750,000 Mississippians have had it and beaten it IMO. That's between 8% and 25% of the entire state having been exposed if my assumptions end up being correct. If that's anywhere close to true -- you can see why I don't believe waiting on a vaccine is a feasible approach. If we're at 25% exposure, which I admit I don't believe we're quite that high, we're a couple of months at most from herd immunity.

These numbers of positives are going to go up quite a bit IMO because they are testing literally everyone in retirement and nursing homes now. The Guard was by Granny's assisted living facility today.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

I completely forgot about the Edinburg Costco****

I thought you went to MSU.

They live in rural MS in counties that have exploded in cases over the past 2 weeks...

They have Amazon, but delivery times takes weeks and they cannot get meat, vegetables, or fruit.

No CVS.

No Sam's Club.

No local delivery service.

They do have a local Church with a bunch of other old people.

Again, if it were not for selfish, Idiot ********, they could go to the store themselves at low risk.

But there are too many that are too concerned about being a selfish *******.

If I cannot trust you to wear a mask, I cannot trust you to protect them in any way. So I assume you have it. And we have to shut down the world.

So, 17 you, "Lee". Selfish MF.

Hold on there pal... I’m 52, diagnosed with Heart Failure in July 2019 with an EF of 25%.. on top of that I have had cancer twice and have permanently scarred lungs from a nasty bout of Histoplasmosis when I was younger... so I fit in the “at risk group”.....thru diet, exercise and meds my heart function is back up to somewhat normal and I still work and pay a shitload of taxes....however, I am not going to live in fear of this virus and let it rob me of the quality of my life here on earth waiting on a vaccine that may not come anytime soon.. I wear a mask when I go out, I wash my hands and use sanitizer, but I did that (except mask) before the virus because I travel for work and shake a lot of hands.....I am a long way from being “a selfish MF” but I believe every day on this earth is a gift and one of us is the next to go virus or not.... so 17 you and grow a set.

 

[mount lefroy]

His parents have to eat. Where else is he supposed to get food for them if he doesn't go to the store?

Not sure I understand your question. The point is that the fewer number of infected people going to the store and interacting with him reduces the chance of infection. Lessening restrictions increases that number.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

That’s right IF youre wearing a sealed respirator mask like an N95. If you’re just wearing a cloth mask just to stop your cough then it’s not necessary to shave.

 

[dog12]

Because your recklessness my kill others. We have laws all over the place trying to stop stupid behavior like driving the left lane because it can kill others and at a much lower rate that 1%.

Is there a law that requires me to wear a mask?

 

[Hubcitydog]

All of this but next time add the deaths by date showing that it is now wiping out nursing home patients(it separates death by nh and non nh). I’ll leave it to you, I think this is like debating religion and no one is likely to be swayed from their position on either side at this point. Good luck.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Is there a law that requires me to wear a mask?

No. I wear a mask when I go into the store. But not for me.

I think about all of those hourly workers that actually are exposed to everyone and everything... I think about how they could be at home collecting a big fat unemployment check, but instead choose to work. I think about how scared some of them are because they may be at real risk. I want them to feel a little better knowing that I am doing my part.

So I overcome my ego and I look in the mirror and put my ****** $3 cut up t-shirt mask (sorry Rocket and whoever else bought the ones I did) on and head on in.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

High quality one-liner. I’ve got it saved in my signature & it might even replace Donna Ladd’s remarks about the Clarion-Ledger and Ole Miss.

 

[mount lefroy]

That the same Rand who set up his own ophthalmology "certification" because he couldn't get certified by the real one?

Well, you have to take that certification in it's proper context.

Or something like that.

 

[johnson86-1]

I've been charting these numbers in excel for the last 16 days. They have trended upwards. Unless one wants to lie about what the numbers really are (and they are actually worse because of people who have not reported their illness to a hospital) they have progressively risen since the last week of April.

The job now is to not have an outbreak that causes us to overwhelm hospitals and cause us shut down with martial law. The only other example we have is the spanish flu and it had a second spike worse than the first. The fact that we havent contact tested in Mississippi should tell you that many have not been exposed. I want all states to do what is best for their citizens. But mississippi in particular, it needs to follow the professional advice and trend downwards for 14 days. It has to do with population density as to whether a number trend is acceptable or not. What is true in New York isnt true for Mississippi. But to aggravate the situation based on the theory of economic death is to ignore the proof of actual viral death. That is just plain ignorance.

They are trending upward from a minuscule number while our hospitals are mostly empty. We have been locked down when the risk of overrunning our hospitals was low, and if we do bump up against that threshold, people who have already been hammered financially to shut down while hospitals were empty may not be inclined to do it again.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

let's not forget about people that are not being seen by doctors and not getting diagnosed for things other than COVID-19.

 

[MrKotter]

Nm

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I saw in I think the Washington Post that an estimated 45,000 Americans will attempt suicide because of depression related to Covid19/Economy. How they came up with that number, I have no idea.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

You would only need to self quarantine if you are sick or know you have been exposed to the virus.

 

[SheltonChoked]

And their numbers aren't inconsistent with what I am saying. I suspect .4% will be within the estimate based on the size of the population. Also that's a very unrepresentative sample. You have typically older passengers and relatively young crew. Not sure how all that shakes out.


Here's something indicating .1 to .2 IFR, although it relies on antibody tests. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Here's something estimating 1.3% IFR when you ignore asymptomatic people. So if 1/2 the people are asymptomatic, that would be about .65%.

Here's something estimating .75%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1
He's something with a range of .39 to 1.33% www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1

Here's something with references to different estimates of the CFR and IFR. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

A lot of these may be circular and point back to the same data, and we may not have great data for a while, but we have to use what we have.

Looks like you made up 0.4%... Just like I thought.

The only one that is close you use the extreme lower end based on only Chinese data that many on here tout as completely false.

The last link has a CFR below 1 for those stalwarts of truth Russia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Ghana, Djibouti, and Oman...

So do the math with the higher end numbers....

 

[SheltonChoked]

So you're for forcing drug companies back to the US and end our support of those companies and the research being done in China? Who do you think caused all those companies etc. to move to China? Because you're going to get into politics.

Drug companies went to China and India for the same reasons that clothing companies went to China and India...

So the American consumer "chose" them to go there for lower prices...

 

[SheltonChoked]

Hold on there pal... I’m 52, diagnosed with Heart Failure in July 2019 with an EF of 25%.. on top of that I have had cancer twice and have permanently scarred lungs from a nasty bout of Histoplasmosis when I was younger... so I fit in the “at risk group”.....thru diet, exercise and meds my heart function is back up to somewhat normal and I still work and pay a shitload of taxes....however, I am not going to live in fear of this virus and let it rob me of the quality of my life here on earth waiting on a vaccine that may not come anytime soon.. I wear a mask when I go out, I wash my hands and use sanitizer, but I did that (except mask) before the virus because I travel for work and shake a lot of hands.....I am a long way from being “a selfish MF” but I believe every day on this earth is a gift and one of us is the next to go virus or not.... so 17 you and grow a set.

I'm not living in fear, but knowing that by simple measures, we can re start the economy and get back to almost normal.

If you do all that, I take back the selfish MF directed at you.

And you should be pissed at the selfish ******* that is trying to kill you as well.

Funny, it took getting you pissed for you to admit, you chose to follow Fauci's health recommendations as well....

 

[SheltonChoked]

Is there a law that requires me to wear a mask?

Is there a law that says you have to be a selfish *******?

 

[WilCoDawg]

Here’s an actual article on how not getting back out there is killing/will kill people. Most people in the States are in this position, but it’s still possible for some. (I almost linked a similar article from Fox News, but I know there’s some who would scoff at the article not for the actual story, but from where it came.)
https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...years-the-coronavirus-could-erase-those-gains

 

[WilCoDawg]

Please remember that the test kits coming out of China have proven to be less than accurate. They may test 100,000 people, but having you or I look at people and guessing who is positive will have a similar rate of accuracy.

 

[WilCoDawg]

No one is going to answer your question because no one knows and they haven’t thought about it unfortunately. No one has thought about doing this until summer 2021 waiting for a vaccine. By that point, EVERYONE will be of the same mindset screaming “17 it! Let me out of this house!”

 

[Cooterpoot]

Drug companies went to China and India for the same reasons that clothing companies went to China and India...

So the American consumer "chose" them to go there for lower prices...

Wrong answer, but you've been wrong in the thread. Nothing new there.

 

[SheltonChoked]

Wrong answer, but you've been wrong in the thread. Nothing new there.

So educate me then? If not for lower prices, like everything else from steel to pacifiers, why?

 

[TBone.sixpack]

You seem like you are close to coming unhinged. Breathe.