These 2 Doctors sound like they know their stuff .- WATCH
- Thread starter jackbaddawg
- Start date
Can't wait for the usual suspects to put their two cents in and tell us how these Doctors are ignorant and going to cost lives.
They could have passed for a couple of those reporters based on some of the questions. They seemed disappointed**
There’s definitely a mindset shift happening from actual doctors and not just theorists or scientists.
Yep....you are hearing more people support this idea. It was the unknown of how many would die and that there was no known cure or vaccine to this point that caused so much fear. But I am ready to move forward and get people back to work.....with safeguards.
I didn't watch it all, but I am guessing where they are, it's much safer to open than in places in the Northeast. One of the things that is not getting covered is the different mutations or strains of the virus. Most of the US has a milder strain that seems to have started on the west coast and spread around. It's probably like the Flu.
New York was mainly infected from the strain that came out of Europe... That's why you are seeing death rates much higher in NYC and New Jersey than in other parts of the country. Same with southern Europe.
Can we lockdown the nasty version and try to develop some kind of herd immunity with the milder strains? Keep all of the vulnerable protected everywhere.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8237849/Coronavirus-mutated-Strains-evolved-far-deadlier-spread-Europe-New-York.html
New York was mainly infected from the strain that came out of Europe... That's why you are seeing death rates much higher in NYC and New Jersey than in other parts of the country. Same with southern Europe.
Can we lockdown the nasty version and try to develop some kind of herd immunity with the milder strains? Keep all of the vulnerable protected everywhere.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8237849/Coronavirus-mutated-Strains-evolved-far-deadlier-spread-Europe-New-York.html
A lot of other doctors think they are full of ****.
Personally, I buy the conclusion that there are a lot more folks that have or had the virus than we've officially quantified. But when 2 docs take a non-random sample (sick people coming in to their clinics, obviously skewed towards sick people) and apply that to a general population, it makes me question their intelligence or motives. Being right for the right reasons is important too. Be skeptical of these guys and follow the money.
Personally, I buy the conclusion that there are a lot more folks that have or had the virus than we've officially quantified. But when 2 docs take a non-random sample (sick people coming in to their clinics, obviously skewed towards sick people) and apply that to a general population, it makes me question their intelligence or motives. Being right for the right reasons is important too. Be skeptical of these guys and follow the money.
Fauci said a couple of weeks back that the virus wasn't showing any evidence of mutation.
I don't believe that death rates are higher in NYC because it's a different strain of the virus. I believe death rates are higher because of the density of the population.
I think theses guys made some good points and I don’t necessarily disagree with them, but I think they omitted an important detail which biases their whole case.
650,000 tested in NY State 250,000 tested positive 37,000 have died.
The numbers that he used are from a few days ago but we can still use them.
He said the number is 39% of tested actually 38.4 have the virus which is correct.
250,000 / 650,000 = 38.4%
20,000,000 X 39 % = 7.8 million NY Population tested positive.
My only problem with what he said, is for all his talk about data and extrapolating... he extrapolated the cases but didn’t extrapolate the deaths. If these are the numbers he wants to hang his argument on, then take it all the way out...
Deaths would not be 19,000 if 7.8 million people were positive.
650,000 people tested 19,000 have died that is 19,000/650,000 = 2.9%
7,8000,000 X 2.9% = 226,200 deaths of those who contract the virus.
In the U.S that number would be 320,000,000 X 39% =124,000,000positive
124,000,000 X 2.9% is 3,619,200... deaths nationwide.
I’m sure he is smart enough to have figured these numbers, yet he failed to point it out. Why?
650,000 tested in NY State 250,000 tested positive 37,000 have died.
The numbers that he used are from a few days ago but we can still use them.
He said the number is 39% of tested actually 38.4 have the virus which is correct.
250,000 / 650,000 = 38.4%
20,000,000 X 39 % = 7.8 million NY Population tested positive.
My only problem with what he said, is for all his talk about data and extrapolating... he extrapolated the cases but didn’t extrapolate the deaths. If these are the numbers he wants to hang his argument on, then take it all the way out...
Deaths would not be 19,000 if 7.8 million people were positive.
650,000 people tested 19,000 have died that is 19,000/650,000 = 2.9%
7,8000,000 X 2.9% = 226,200 deaths of those who contract the virus.
In the U.S that number would be 320,000,000 X 39% =124,000,000positive
124,000,000 X 2.9% is 3,619,200... deaths nationwide.
I’m sure he is smart enough to have figured these numbers, yet he failed to point it out. Why?
I think this is good discussion. I don't know that I agree with everything they say, and a lot of medical professionals don't either, and there is a lot of napkin math going on here. There are a lot of invalid comparisons to the flu. This virus is deadly not because of the mortality rate, but because the rate at which it spreads. It is much easier for this virus to reach the more vulnerable.
That said, the discussion is good to have. It's time to have a controlled opening now that we have data. The shutdown was right to have because the worst case scenario was catastrophic and there was no scientific argument that said it wouldn't be true. Now we do know that social distancing works, population density matters, and who the vulnerable are is becoming more clear.
What we need now is a lot less sunshine pumping versus doomsdaying. Our government experts should be talking about the reality of the situation more clearly. Things like:
1. This is much less deadly than we originally feared
2. It is still very deadly to a vulnerable portion of our population
3. We are still very early in the infection and it's likely that less than 10% of the population has been infected
4. We won't have a vaccine until late 2021 at the earliest
5. The only way forward is to accept that it will spread and we will do our best to control it and protect the vulnerable by social distancing, limiting unnecessary exposure, and hygienic measures
6. This means more than half of our population will have this by the end of the year, but the overwhelming majority of people will recover safely
7. Many, many people will not recover and we have to do our best to advance science to support them medically and also financially with the burden of medical debts
There is good and bad news in all of this. People don't need to hear this will be out of here by Memorial Day. They need to hear that we will be battling this for a long time, but that we will be okay as long as we come together. It's not a cold, it's not the flu, but it's not a death sentence. We don't have miracle cures yet, but we can protect the people would would need them.
That said, the discussion is good to have. It's time to have a controlled opening now that we have data. The shutdown was right to have because the worst case scenario was catastrophic and there was no scientific argument that said it wouldn't be true. Now we do know that social distancing works, population density matters, and who the vulnerable are is becoming more clear.
What we need now is a lot less sunshine pumping versus doomsdaying. Our government experts should be talking about the reality of the situation more clearly. Things like:
1. This is much less deadly than we originally feared
2. It is still very deadly to a vulnerable portion of our population
3. We are still very early in the infection and it's likely that less than 10% of the population has been infected
4. We won't have a vaccine until late 2021 at the earliest
5. The only way forward is to accept that it will spread and we will do our best to control it and protect the vulnerable by social distancing, limiting unnecessary exposure, and hygienic measures
6. This means more than half of our population will have this by the end of the year, but the overwhelming majority of people will recover safely
7. Many, many people will not recover and we have to do our best to advance science to support them medically and also financially with the burden of medical debts
There is good and bad news in all of this. People don't need to hear this will be out of here by Memorial Day. They need to hear that we will be battling this for a long time, but that we will be okay as long as we come together. It's not a cold, it's not the flu, but it's not a death sentence. We don't have miracle cures yet, but we can protect the people would would need them.
I believe the death rates are higher in New York because they are coding any death that occurs to the Wuhan Virus ...financial incentive and all
I agree with this generally and agree with what David Katz said on Bill Maher. I also think Trump's phase plan is reasonable. Vulnerable populations need to be careful, and people just have to be prepared to go in and out of phases if the hospital systems get overwhelmed. We can't view going back a phase as a failure; it's just a natural part of the dealing with the virus.
The doctors in the video are applying their own testing results to the general population, which is ridiculous. That said, the NY data Katz shared suggest a lot of people have had COVID without knowing it. I think we need to begin to reopen things and keep a close eye on what happens to the hospitals once we do that. If they're not overwhelmed over 3-4 weeks, then go to the next phase. There are other considerations than death by COVID.
So Doctors don't like being out of work?
So people are choosing not to go to the ER if they don't have to. Are they dying as a result?
So people are choosing not to go to the ER if they don't have to. Are they dying as a result?
Your numbers are almost assuredly off because one would expect deaths at hospitals to be much higher than in the population, as there are not bodies "rotting in the streets" dead of Covid-19. Those seriously ill enough with it to actually die have gone to the hospitals.
For your math to work, we'd have to assume there are 200,000+ dead bodies in NY nobody knows about.
You are correct on this. Thank the CDC and cares act for this. Therefore we really don't know the true number of deaths. Also, talked to a friend in NYC, when this first hit they had a ton of rush on the hospitals with people panicking and thinking they may have the virus that is one reason they were so overwhelmed to begin with as well as not having enough tests
Doctor's are equal to car mechanics with this pandemic. Sure, they know a lot about how to fix a certain part of the car, but what we need to be listening to are the automotive engineers (scientist).
Doctor's bless them, but this issue is way above their pay grade as is this conversation for anyone not a scientist that deals with infectious diseases.
If someone could find me a doctor that has developed a single working solution to any major diseases, I will revise my statement. Doctor's treat the disease, scientist will find a long term solution. Anything to the contrary is just massive misinformation.
For the record, we are not getting back to normal until we have herd immunization, a vaccine, or so widespread testing we can test people weekly and start tracing their contact to others. Could people go back to work, sure. But they are at risk. No matter your politics, the federal government should already have built facilities that should be pumping out test and testing machines by the 100s of thousands if not millions per day. 20 billion dollars a week testing would be the lowest I would have projected from Jan 1 this year. No one could convince me we couldn't repurpose the 1000s of closed off Wal-Marts across the country in a matter of weeks to start producing testing machines and tests.
All you need is an open floor plan, power, lighting, and the equipment to mass produce. The way wal-marts are designed, they are almost exactly the same in every town. So to test weekly, we need 300 million produced a week, or maybe 150 million every week so we can test every two weeks.
Every employer in the country should have set up as safe as they can facilities to get workers back. My mom's factory set up every station to maximize each worker's clear area. They are not allowed to sit together at lunch. They have their temp tested as they enter. Is all of that the best situatoin, well no. But it is a good step in the right direction to get people back on the lines producing.
If the food supply chain gets' broken, we are in for a world of hurt.
Well said.
Open up where it makes sense. Wear masks. Keep distance. Keep the vulnerable protected (that's on everyone, don't breathe on grandma even if you think you aren't sick). Pull back if it hospitals get overwhelmed.
There is also speculation (based on prelim data) that children may be a viral dead end for this thing. They don't get sick from it often and, more importantly, it doesn't appear they are passing it on like the rest of the population does. If this is true, we are even closer to the end than most think.
Open up where it makes sense. Wear masks. Keep distance. Keep the vulnerable protected (that's on everyone, don't breathe on grandma even if you think you aren't sick). Pull back if it hospitals get overwhelmed.
There is also speculation (based on prelim data) that children may be a viral dead end for this thing. They don't get sick from it often and, more importantly, it doesn't appear they are passing it on like the rest of the population does. If this is true, we are even closer to the end than most think.
Any way you slice it, the federal government hasn't done its job. Testing is its failure. They could have addressed it, but chose not to. let's say they wasted 20 billion a week trying to get testing widespread. If anything, it would have been cheaper every single week than the loss of production we are seeing right now.
Just imagine if a democrat didn't pursue literally every single possible solution to fix what we need during a pandemic. Nothing has changed in our needs. We need testing, so large the world has never seen the scope and complexity. Literally nothing has been done to address it, going on 6 months and 20 days since they heard of this bug. I will give them a reprive on the first 2 months because China may have contained this thing. But they moment it got out, we should have moved swiftly. 20 billion a week seems cheap compared to the combined 12 trillion we have spent to date.
Just imagine if a democrat didn't pursue literally every single possible solution to fix what we need during a pandemic. Nothing has changed in our needs. We need testing, so large the world has never seen the scope and complexity. Literally nothing has been done to address it, going on 6 months and 20 days since they heard of this bug. I will give them a reprive on the first 2 months because China may have contained this thing. But they moment it got out, we should have moved swiftly. 20 billion a week seems cheap compared to the combined 12 trillion we have spent to date.
Mixed bag. There's obviously a decrease of non emergency activity (people with cold/flu that just need rest and fluids, not emergent care). Folks having strokes, heart attacks, detached retinas, you name it, are toughing it out to avoid the ER. That's clearly not a healthy practice and likely leading to avoidable death/long term harm.
No, there are not bodies in the street because 39% of the population of New York state, would have to have the virus to hit 200K deaths and fortunately that has not happened.
Those are the doctors numbers. Not Mine. Although I did check them and its correct. He just didnt continue to extrapolate the numbers he used to support his argument, which in my opinion showed his bias. I do believe there are other factors that impact those numbers but with New York being the state that has implemented the most thorough testing, it presents an interesting picture.
Those are the doctors numbers. Not Mine. Although I did check them and its correct. He just didnt continue to extrapolate the numbers he used to support his argument, which in my opinion showed his bias. I do believe there are other factors that impact those numbers but with New York being the state that has implemented the most thorough testing, it presents an interesting picture.
So the two guys that own a doc in the box chain in Bakersfield CA and graduated from the powerhouse medical schools of Loma Linda and Western University of Health Sciences... That's who figured it all out. Got it.
Next thing you know an Ole Miss engineer will be in charge of NASA.
Next thing you know an Ole Miss engineer will be in charge of NASA.
My take is this. If you have to get back to work, like really have to or your family is going to starve, well you have to do what you have to do. The public will not safe guard enough to be even a small percentage safe in returning to work. People will get complacent after about a week. Grandma is going to catch it. Children do get sick from it, they are just less susceptible to the worst of what is can do. I haven't seen any evidence that children cannot pass this thing on at the same rate as anyone else. I would be interested in seeing where you pulled that from. Sounds a lot like when people were suggesting that black people cannot get it. If you are human, and haven't had it before, you can contract it. Simple as that.
So people go back to work, the numbers start rising exponentially again, and we have to shut it down again. We shut the entire state down when we had 1 known case. Now we have 1000s. Seems to me people have a very short memory and just feel like it is cool to go out and about. Science truth is going to smack them in the face. Regardless of age or whatever safeguards you take. Exposed long enough, and you will catch it.
Exactly. Doctor's have no expertise to solve this issue. It would be comical that this entire post was even posted, except it is really sad. I am guessing the OP graduated from MSU, and saw this video and thought..... damn this makes perfect sense to me. I would add, there is a possibility that an UM engineer could one day be in charge o NASA. Its very slim, but it could happen. Doctor's knowing how to fix this virus couldn't happen. Like 0.00000000% chance.
**** guys, this is science. Science doesn't give a crap what side you vote or whether you understand or believe its findings. Scientific truths do not require people to believe or understand. They just ARE, then they are revised based on new information, and then they ARE again. That is how science works. Nothing is completed or perfect, but they get more complete and closer to perfect every single experiment.
If testing gets to where it needs to be, and we can actively track people that are positive, most people could potentially get back to a near normal level. Or maybe a reduced normal level.
Until then, the second we turn things back on, we risk getting right back into the same situation we were in March 9th. From all indications, shutting down a second time would be terrible to the economy and the stock market. I would be willing to bet, the stock market would double it's current losses the moment a second (reinstated) stay at home order would be issued.
Put it this way, if we go back to work I will switch every single investment I have to as conservative as I can get it, until the second stay at home order has been issued. Let the market drop another 45% below 21k then go really high risk to catch the wave back up to 25k.
No way NY is coding everything to Covid-19. His use of the term Wuhan, is evidence enough to know that is ********. They may be coding major breathing issues to it, but to say every death is just stupid.
Also note, when people started dying there, they didn't even have test to test the patients. Major failure on our part not having a test ready and out. No urgency.
That is not how extrapolation works. Those are potential numbers if you let it run its course unchecked in the same manner the original numbers were generated. that is a what if. Which is useful if we refuse to change how we are going to do business moving forward. NY is particularly interesting case due to the density in which they live and travel day to day.
Testing helps, but it's not how we get through this.
We don't have the ability or will to do large scale contact tracing like Korea or Vietnam, so we're not going to stop the spread in its tracks like that. Testing is good for allowing decision-makers to know if too many are getting infected too quickly or not, and will be great for making regionally-based decisions over flat policy.
Shutting down everything until a vaccine is widely available is not realistic, the best we can hope for is helpful treatment. It still all comes down to flattening the curve. Once we feel like our hospitals and general populace is prepared and will not be overwhelmed, we'll need to start having people go back out there and start catching it. Not everyone all at once, or flatting the curve will have been for nothing. Just one segment at a time. Piece by piece, we have to let the virus chew through our population, making many very sick and killing some. You'd hope to have the most vulnerable stay as distant as possible, so that many of them could benefit from herd immunity as one of the last potentially-exposed groups.
That's how we get through this - and I'm afraid we lack the discipline to do it right. It sucks, but that's where we are.
We don't have the ability or will to do large scale contact tracing like Korea or Vietnam, so we're not going to stop the spread in its tracks like that. Testing is good for allowing decision-makers to know if too many are getting infected too quickly or not, and will be great for making regionally-based decisions over flat policy.
Shutting down everything until a vaccine is widely available is not realistic, the best we can hope for is helpful treatment. It still all comes down to flattening the curve. Once we feel like our hospitals and general populace is prepared and will not be overwhelmed, we'll need to start having people go back out there and start catching it. Not everyone all at once, or flatting the curve will have been for nothing. Just one segment at a time. Piece by piece, we have to let the virus chew through our population, making many very sick and killing some. You'd hope to have the most vulnerable stay as distant as possible, so that many of them could benefit from herd immunity as one of the last potentially-exposed groups.
That's how we get through this - and I'm afraid we lack the discipline to do it right. It sucks, but that's where we are.
Good to know you two clowns know more that those two medical doctors using science and statistics to rationalize their stance. But hey lets trust the "Experts" whose models claimed that 2.2 Million Americans were going to die....
Shutting it down initially makes sense because 1) you have to gauge the severity, 2) you have to give hospitals time to prepare, and 3) you have to get testing capabilities. Once that's in place, hospital capacity becomes the most important thing to pay attention to. Daily new cases doesn't matter as much if we've just expanded testing to people who are less severely ill. The number of cases requiring hospitalization is much more meaningful. There's going to be a delay between contracting COVID and getting severe enough symptoms to require hospitalization, so we do need to reopen in steps to make sure we don't overwhelm the hospital systems. But as long as we're not overwhelming them, we need to continue to expand what we're allowing people to do.
So you haven't read the CARES act I take it? Not being a smart ***. Also you haven't read that the CDC also is stating to code deaths as covid?
Why do you think deaths are down all across the country in most all health issues? Cause they are being coded as COVID. Also it's why most of the mortality numbers cannot be taken seriously
Case-fatality rate trends down as more and more tests uncover more and more missed/asymptomatic/recovered cases. There are multitudes MORE missed positive cases than there are missed deaths due to COVID, by shear volume and by percentage.
It'll be here any day now if we don't start opening some sectors and areas of the country.
One thing these two doctors were spot on about was herd immunity. We won't get there if we all stay sheltered at home.
"We need testing, so large the world has never seen the scope and complexity." <---read this
Then this-> "Literally nothing has been done to address it, going on 6 months and 20 days since they heard of this bug. I will give them a reprive on the first 2 months because China may have contained this thing. But they moment it got out, we should have moved swiftly."
And tell me by what metric can you make the claim that everything hasn't been balls to the wall for fixing the testing shortage since any sense of the scope of this virus was known? That first statement clearly tells why testing hasn't caught up.
OK, then let's for arguments sake say there are 1/4 of fatalities "not being counted" in the population. That's still 50,000 deaths that authorities would have no idea about. It's just not plausible. You seem to be missing that, though there have probably been other deaths not attributed to Covid-19 that may have been related to the virus, the number is exponentially less than the amount you want to extrapolate based on deaths at the hospitals. Again, consider that people who are close to dying from this virus are experiencing symptoms that would drive them to their doctors and hospitals, thus are counted in the fatality rate. We should expect that the rate will be higher at the hospital than in the public precisely because the vast majority of people who get sick enough to be threatened are going to the hospital.
Using a sample of likely sick people to draw conclusions upon a general population is neither science nor statistics. It's cherry picking.
They might be right, but it's based on gut feeling and they haven't supported it in any way a statistician would be comfortable with.
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