These 2 Doctors sound like they know their stuff .- WATCH

[horshack.sixpack]

I don't believe there is any merit in this. You would need continuous testing of all negative people to be sure they didn't turn positive. That is not a reasonable response. It's a virus. Be cautious for the sake of everyone. High risk people be really cautious/stay home if you are that concerned. Move on. It's time.

 

[Hump4Hoops]

I mostly agree with you, save for a big caveat

I don't believe there is any merit in this. You would need continuous testing of all negative people to be sure they didn't turn positive. That is not a reasonable response. It's a virus. Be cautious for the sake of everyone. High risk people be really cautious/stay home if you are that concerned. Move on. It's time.

It's time for some people.

If we really are sitting at <10% of our population currently infected, do you want to crank that number to 80% over the course of a few weeks? Absolutely not. Getting back out there needs to be slow and methodical, infecting the remaining population bite by bite, taking into account the long incubation period, and being more vigilant than ever to protect the vulnerable.

 

[Dawgg]

Can't wait for the usual suspects to put their two cents in and tell us how these Doctors are ignorant and going to cost lives.

You said you'd be surprised if there would be over 10k-20k fatalities. You have no credibility. 17 off.

 

[ckDOG]

My take is this. If you have to get back to work, like really have to or your family is going to starve, well you have to do what you have to do. The public will not safe guard enough to be even a small percentage safe in returning to work. People will get complacent after about a week. Grandma is going to catch it. Children do get sick from it, they are just less susceptible to the worst of what is can do. I haven't seen any evidence that children cannot pass this thing on at the same rate as anyone else. I would be interested in seeing where you pulled that from. Sounds a lot like when people were suggesting that black people cannot get it. If you are human, and haven't had it before, you can contract it. Simple as that.

So people go back to work, the numbers start rising exponentially again, and we have to shut it down again. We shut the entire state down when we had 1 known case. Now we have 1000s. Seems to me people have a very short memory and just feel like it is cool to go out and about. Science truth is going to smack them in the face. Regardless of age or whatever safeguards you take. Exposed long enough, and you will catch it.

No, it's not twitter speculation. I have a connection via the MD wife who is Columbia/Oxford trained in epidemiology who is chasing this down. She's 50+ articles and papers in and is making some interesting observations. She's acknowledged a lot of bias in the data, but she's observing lower transmission rates to children and very very low transmission rates from children to adults. It's not concrete, but I suspect you will see this getting a lot of attention sooner than later. Maybe it's bunk, maybe it's not. We will see.

I agree there's no getting away from the science and we could end up getting smacked in the face by this even worse than the first, but we could also ease back into it with some balance of success and acceptable damage as well. When the state was shut down with 1 case, how do you know it was actually 1 and not hundreds or thousands? It's a little misleading to say we got to 1 to where we are
today. The science is the science, but it's also been for the most part blind with the lack of pervasive testing. Lots of assumption has occurred and we are just now getting to the point where we feel more comfortable about quantifying current exposure and the first legitimate looks at historical exposure points toward a significant number.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

It's time for some people.

If we really are sitting at <10% of our population currently infected, do you want to crank that number to 80% over the course of a few weeks? Absolutely not. Getting back out there needs to be slow and methodical, infecting the remaining population bite by bite, taking into account the long incubation period, and being more vigilant than ever to protect the vulnerable.

Admittedly I don't think that anyone has any real idea of % exposure to date. I may be Pollyanna, but I think that the vast majority of people would continue to perform necessary hygiene practices to substantially limit a huge, sudden outbreak, even if the powers that be reverted completely to pre-virus policies. Then again, perhaps I'm putting too much faith in common sense...

 

[ChupacabraDawg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfL...mdVugRfRRI-2eUUc6ueTOvdAbWrHMUEaFeaJnZ6LLwEqc

Seems to be well thought out but I’d like to point out the argument about 37,000-60,000 flu deaths per year is telling... its per YEAR. Covid has killed that many in 2.5 months. Let’s make that comparison in December. I think they make good points but I hate that comparison bc it’s apples and oranges at this point.

 

[birdawg]

Fauci said a couple of weeks back that the virus wasn't showing any evidence of mutation.

I don't believe that death rates are higher in NYC because it's a different strain of the virus. I believe death rates are higher because of the density of the population.

Density of population has zero impact on death rate, but it does impact infection rate. If the death rate is higher in NYC than other places, then there is either a mutation in NYC or hospitals there are being more liberal about covid as cause of death.

 

[ckDOG]

Or higher infection rate spread hospital resources thin

Density of population has zero impact on death rate, but it does impact infection rate. If the death rate is higher in NYC than other places, then there is either a mutation in NYC or hospitals there are being more liberal about covid as cause of death.

Thin resources may provide lower quality care and drive up death rates compared to similar demographics in other areas with better quality of care. NYC hospitals got nailed by a lot very quickly.

 

[LandsurveyorDawg]

Lets do a little math lesson shall we. Which number is closest to the true value: A) 20k fatalities. B) 2.2 Million fatalities? You can think about that as you are 17'ing yourself.

 

[Hubcitydog]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start-easing-the-coronavirus-lockdowns/

 

[Hubcitydog]

I’ve said it several times now but no one promoting contact tracing has answered. With a prevalence already of 10% and a R0 of about 6- contact tracing won’t be of any benefit whatsoever. There are other reasons too (like asymptomatic infectious) but we don’t even have to go that far.

But im sure Archdog has it all figured out.

 

[BriantheDawg]

Wow. 50 posts in and not a single mention of commie YouTube taking down this video. God forbid there be any kind of rebuttal to what the WHO and CCP are propagating. Wake up people. 1A rights are being squashed right now & it seems no one is even paying attention or noticing.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

6 months from now we will all look back at this and realize how ridiculous it is. It's no more deadly than a bad flu season. Vaccine ? Did we get one for SARS ? Do we really have one for the flu ? Not really. Its hit or miss at best. My rights do not stop due to your fear. If ya scared stay home and hide from a virus

 

[My Bru]

6 months from now we will all look back at this and realize how ridiculous it is. It's no more deadly than a bad flu season. Vaccine ? Did we get one for SARS ? Do we really have one for the flu ? Not really. Its hit or miss at best. My rights do not stop due to your fear. If ya scared stay home and hide from a virus

Speaking of fear, where's deadheaddawg lately? He's not looking too hot after his passionate devotion to the 100% surety that COVID was about to wipe us out.

 

[WilCoDawg]

Kind of like skydiving, right?

 

[LandsurveyorDawg]

No doubt. Deadheaddawg has left the building. What is sad is he is probably upset that it wasn't as devastating as he was prognosticating.

 

[johnson86-1]

Put it this way, if we go back to work I will switch every single investment I have to as conservative as I can get it, until the second stay at home order has been issued. Let the market drop another 45% below 21k then go really high risk to catch the wave back up to 25k.

You need to go ahead and move everything to cash or maybe precious metals if you really believe that, because if you believe we are going to shut down until we can get numbers manageable enough to do contact tracing or until vaccine or whatever it is you think the end game is, we are going to double our losses regardless.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I hope everybody noticed that YouTube removed the video for being opposed to party standards....oh wait. Community standards. Not one of our medical experts that are presented to us have been anywhere near correct. Don't you find it odd that Florida and California are around 11 or 1200 deaths and NY is around 16000 ??

 

[LandsurveyorDawg]

I noticed Youtube removed the video. They are all the time removing videos or de-monitizing conservative viewpoints. But whats funny is this shouldn't even be about politics but about statistics. If you differ from the liberal stance people like Dawgg will come tell you that you have no credibility and to 17 off.

 

[MrKotter]

Doctor's are equal to car mechanics with this pandemic. Sure, they know a lot about how to fix a certain part of the car, but what we need to be listening to are the automotive engineers (scientist).
Doctor's bless them, but this issue is way above their pay grade as is this conversation for anyone not a scientist that deals with infectious diseases.

If someone could find me a doctor that has developed a single working solution to any major diseases, I will revise my statement. Doctor's treat the disease, scientist will find a long term solution. Anything to the contrary is just massive misinformation.

.

This is beyond stupid.

 

[LandsurveyorDawg]

I agree, beyond stupid.

 

[Bucky Dog]

Put it this way, if we go back to work I will switch every single investment I have to as conservative as I can get it, until the second stay at home order has been issued. Let the market drop another 45% below 21k then go really high risk to catch the wave back up to 25k.

If we don’t go back to work, conservative or not, you can kiss all of your investments goodbye. Who generates wealth in this country? It’s damn sure not the government, it’s the people and businesses. Do you think the government can just keep printing money for a year and everyone stay at home??

The truth still is we have to get back to work as quickly and safely as possible with precautions everywhere. And, we have to accept this is not going away and we will have to assume the risks and know there will be tens to hundreds of thousands of deaths until there is a vaccine. We cannot dent the right to work and let our economy crash!

 

[The Fatboy]

If this link is correct then YouTube has removed the video. Cliff's notes?

 

[dorndawg]

This is beyond stupid.

It's a reality-based statement, so of course we have some who don't like that sort of thing. Long-winded posts on covid from orthopedic surgeons are a hoot.

 

[Hubcitydog]

As opposed to long winded covid posts from those with less knowledge of disease, epidemiology, etc? That orthopedist at least took graduate level public health classes. The idea that doctors dont know **** unless they have a PhD in public health or do more bench research than patient care is laughable on its own, it’s even worse that people with no knowledge of any of it preach their superior knowledge in the area.

ETA- I didn’t watch this one and don’t know how well thought out it is - it does sound a bit sketchy based on posts in this thread- I’m addressing archdogs dubmass statement about doctors’ knowledge that you seem to be echoing here.

 

[dorndawg]

Doctors are also well-known for their ability to take criticism of their profession*

 

[LandsurveyorDawg]

We see what the "Academic Experts" came up with. They said 2.2 Million Covid Deaths. This was the biggest failure is the history of this country. If everyday working people failed that bad they would be fired and blackballed from their given professions.

 

[LandsurveyorDawg]

Some cliff notes and the original video. https://www.turnto23.com/news/coron...-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

By the way Elon Musk liked their take. We all know of stupid he is. **

 

[Hubcitydog]

Most can take criticism fine. That has nothing to do with the idea that those with no training know more than those that do have training. Most of the people espousing this right now let their political bias show.

 

[My Bru]

We see what the "Academic Experts" came up with. They said 2.2 Million Covid Deaths. This was the biggest failure is the history of this country. If everyday working people failed that bad they would be fired and blackballed from their given professions.

Ain't that the truth. We've failed on every last part of this, except the government's closing of the borders. But it's a new and unknown threat, so that's to be expected. No need to blame anyone.

The reason dorndawg and his ilk are such insufferable pricks is that they think they are right and just keep saying it, when there's no evidence to back them up at best, and as time goes on it seems their viewpoint was pretty far off the mark. AND, they are blaming the government (for the political part of it).

 

[bulldoghair]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=2s&v=...F_vnsOkk4TRCZk24Locri1hnIzESgxmESnSMjYpZ69jks

 

[My Bru]

So people go back to work, the numbers start rising exponentially again, and we have to shut it down again. We shut the entire state down when we had 1 known case. Now we have 1000s. Seems to me people have a very short memory and just feel like it is cool to go out and about. Science truth is going to smack them in the face. Regardless of age or whatever safeguards you take. Exposed long enough, and you will catch it.

Couple of corrections here:

1) We aren't going to "shut it down again". There will be riots if that happens (like we almost had now before they started opening it back up).
2) We shut the state down because everybody else did, not because we had 1 case. It was a panic, from just about everyone. I trust we've learned our lesson on that.

 

[johnson86-1]

Exactly. Doctor's have no expertise to solve this issue. It would be comical that this entire post was even posted, except it is really sad. I am guessing the OP graduated from MSU, and saw this video and thought..... damn this makes perfect sense to me. I would add, there is a possibility that an UM engineer could one day be in charge o NASA. Its very slim, but it could happen. Doctor's knowing how to fix this virus couldn't happen. Like 0.00000000% chance.

**** guys, this is science. Science doesn't give a crap what side you vote or whether you understand or believe its findings. Scientific truths do not require people to believe or understand. They just ARE, then they are revised based on new information, and then they ARE again. That is how science works. Nothing is completed or perfect, but they get more complete and closer to perfect every single experiment.

You sure are being smug when you aren't even understanding what they are saying. They aren't talking about solving the issue. They are talking about weighing tradeoffs. Some of what they say is patently ridiculous (I think; it certainly sounds like they are taking the veyr unrepresentative sample of people who get tested and using that to extrapolate how many people in the population have had the virus already; maybe that's just confusing b/c of the poor sound quality though), but they do have the benefit of seeing impacts to their business and also seeing some of the frontline impacts from the virus.

Do they need to be modeling the virus? Probably not (although apparently we couldn't identify anybody capable of providing a useful model with the lack of information we had). But neither does Fauci need to be making the decisions on tradeoffs between different types of harms. This is an extremely complex problem and having the type of specialized expertise to be useful in predicting the behavior of the virus almost by definition means you are too specialized to have a good background on making tradeoffs between different health and economic harms, including what you are doing to things like food supply chains.

 

[L4Dawg]

Admittedly I don't think that anyone has any real idea of % exposure to date. I may be Pollyanna, but I think that the vast majority of people would continue to perform necessary hygiene practices to substantially limit a huge, sudden outbreak, even if the powers that be reverted completely to pre-virus policies. Then again, perhaps I'm putting too much faith in common sense...

When it comes to health care practices and hygiene ALWAYS think the worst of the public. It's just a fact.

 

[Bulldawg77]

Seems to be well thought out but I’d like to point out the argument about 37,000-60,000 flu deaths per year is telling... its per YEAR. Covid has killed that many in 2.5 months. Let’s make that comparison in December. I think they make good points but I hate that comparison bc it’s apples and oranges at this point.

This statement is false. Why? Because we don't know the ACTUAL death numbers due to Covid. Ever wonder why cancer and all other deaths have gone down since the pandemic?? It's because they are coding all deaths as covid if they die in a hospital. CARES act actually pays 20% more for Medicaid for all all covid deaths. So they aren't gonna waste a test on the dead just codes them as covid
This is a big reason why we have so many deaths. Until we get actual numbers of those that passed due to covid you can not compare

 

[patdog]

Ever wonder why cancer and all other deaths have gone down since the pandemic??

You got a link to any facts to support this statement?

 

[fishwater99]

This statement is false. Why? Because we don't know the ACTUAL death numbers due to Covid. Ever wonder why cancer and all other deaths have gone down since the pandemic?? It's because they are coding all deaths as covid if they die in a hospital. CARES act actually pays 20% more for Medicaid for all all covid deaths. So they aren't gonna waste a test on the dead just codes them as covid
This is a big reason why we have so many deaths. Until we get actual numbers of those that passed due to covid you can not compare

^^^This

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

This statement is false. Why? Because we don't know the ACTUAL death numbers due to Covid. Ever wonder why cancer and all other deaths have gone down since the pandemic?? It's because they are coding all deaths as covid if they die in a hospital. CARES act actually pays 20% more for Medicaid for all all covid deaths. So they aren't gonna waste a test on the dead just codes them as covid
This is a big reason why we have so many deaths. Until we get actual numbers of those that passed due to covid you can not compare

Cite your source. Here's one that disagrees.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/how-many-people-have-died-in-nyc-during-the-covid-pandemic

Per the city, a total of 18,551 people died of all causes between March 11 and April 13, of 2020.

Those deaths fall into two broad buckets: COVID and non-COVID. The COVID tally stands as of this writing at 10,367, while the non-COVID death total for that time period is 8,184.

Based on data from 2013-2017 the projected total of 5155.2 deaths expected for New York City from March 11-April 13, 2020. The reality was 18,551 deaths.

This points to two things. A lot of people died from Covid19 and a lot of people probably died of other issues because they didn't/couldn't get care. Those cases are not being coded as Covid19.

This thing is a big enough mess, we don't need people making up **** without any facts.

ETA. If you want it in more scientific form... Try this one.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.20073551v1

 

[ckDOG]

What are they doing with folks dying at home?

This statement is false. Why? Because we don't know the ACTUAL death numbers due to Covid. Ever wonder why cancer and all other deaths have gone down since the pandemic?? It's because they are coding all deaths as covid if they die in a hospital. CARES act actually pays 20% more for Medicaid for all all covid deaths. So they aren't gonna waste a test on the dead just codes them as covid
This is a big reason why we have so many deaths. Until we get actual numbers of those that passed due to covid you can not compare

I will have to do some digging but I did read a few weeks ago that deaths at home in NYC were significantly up. What is the city doing with those? No clue here.

If the 20% statement is true, there's certainly a motivator for coding everything covid. Shouldn't the claims be public info? Seems like it could be easily verified...

 

[patdog]

Thanks. About what I figured. Another probably cause of the increase in non-COVID deaths is there are probably a fair number of people who died from the disease that were never officially diagnosed, so the number of COVID deaths is more likely understated than overstated.