Probably the most comprehensive analysis you will see in one place.

[mount lefroy]

I don’t understand where the tens of millions number comes from? Have that many people even been infected world wide? This is where I feel like some people are getting lost and ignoring the warnings. People are throwing these numbers out there without any real basis.

multiply 330 million by .04

 

[msstate7]

multiply 330 million by .04

Currently at 315000 documented cases 4 months in. To stick with the .04 death rate, you have to assume that 315000 is the correct denominator. To get to 330 million cases by December 31st, there would have to be 1.16 million cases every day till then.

Personally, I think there are many more cases than the documented ones, which makes the .04 death rate much lower.

 

[birdawg]

We definitely could be a lot stricter with our quarantine.

This admin, like all prior, is letting state governments make those calls, while the fed government is removing red tape so states have more flexibility to do what's best for their citizens. To suggest we're putting all of our eggs in one basket (the vaccine) and displacing strict quarantine as a result is simply not true.

 

[EagleDawg97]

I just don’t see the jump from a couple hundred US deaths to the several millions some are predicting. That would seem to assume nothing we are doing would have any positive effect. Surely the social distancing, cancellation of basically everything not deemed essential, work on treatments, and work on a vaccine, will move the needle in our favor?

I guess I just believe a little more in the American spirit to overcome obstacles.

 

[ronpolk]

Currently at 315000 documented cases 4 months in. To stick with the .04 death rate, you have to assume that 315000 is the correct denominator. To get to 330 million cases by December 31st, there would have to be 1.16 million cases every day till then.

Personally, I think there are many more cases than the documented ones, which makes the .04 death rate much lower.

Exactly! Making an assumption that every person in the US is going to get this is pretty outrageous.

I don’t want to be lumped in the group that things this is not serious but I don’t like the tens of millions of deaths being thrown out there. Seems like an extreme scenario that is not necessarily presented as extreme.

 

[ronpolk]

And that’s the catch. Do you shut it down for let’s just be optimistic and say 5-6 months and just destroy the economy to nothing or do you just let it happen. It’s not pleasant any way you slice it.

I don’t think you can shut it down for 5 or 6 months. I think a real shutdown could last 3 weeks a month tops. Outside of that, business is bankrupt and unemployment is through the roof.

 

[40 acres and a mule]

NT

 

[Cow College]

Which data point presented in the article do you dispute?

mortality rate of 4% is made up. Currently one in 78 US citizens has died that has gotten it. Also the reproduction number is closer to 1.5 than 2.4

 

[40 acres and a mule]

Try this analysis. Warning: those who are convinced millions will die won't like it. https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

I am in no way stating the virus is not serious. I am following all the guidelines just like most everyone else. I am getting up in years so I am supposed to be one of the most at risk. I just wish there was less hysteria. We have gone from a nation with "Nothing to fear but fear itself", to one who who hoards toilet paper.

 

[mount lefroy]

Currently at 315000 documented cases 4 months in. To stick with the .04 death rate, you have to assume that 315000 is the correct denominator. To get to 330 million cases by December 31st, there would have to be 1.16 million cases every day till then.

Personally, I think there are many more cases than the documented ones, which makes the .04 death rate much lower.

are you accounting for the exponential increases? it doesnt increase steadily. BUT your point is valid in that there can be more cases than we think or that we properly reduce the amount of people catching the virus. But we havent done that. I think a good bit more have contracted it as you suggest, but not on the order that would drop the death rate significantly. it takes time for the virus to run it's course and those who have it now can still be among the deaths that havent been counted.

the death rate right now is .042

EtA: i think the original estimate was that 40-60 percent get the virus. so from that math....

330 million x 50% catch virus = 165 million x .04 = 6.6 million die.

Still high and frightening. I dont think we will go there. But I fear we are only in round 1 of this thing and the fall will bring about more quarantine.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

mortality rate of 4% is made up. Currently one in 78 US citizens has died that has gotten it. Also the reproduction number is closer to 1.5 than 2.4

The mortality rate will remain low as long as critical cases have access to respirators. Once/if you cross that threshold it will skyrocket. It's what happened in Wuhan and is currently taking place in Northern Italy.

We need to throw the kitchen sink at NYC area right now and have everyone else follow the rules for a few weeks to keep the numbers as low as possible elsewhere.

 

[J-Dawg]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...-an-epidemiologist-but-the-rise-of-the-corona

A smart man by the name of Bill Gates says the Imperial College model (which this article and countless others are based off of) is “too negative” and that their parameters were flawed and based on incomplete data.

If social distancing wasn’t going to work, then why do almost all legitimate health organizations and professionals continue to pound that into our heads (along with suppression for hot spot areas)? If the only way to stop this thing was a worldwide 18 month lockdown, then why aren’t we doing it?

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

One of the things I do not see talked about is that based on historic averages 65% -75% of the ICU beds are already occupied by sick people without Covid 19. If 10% of confirmed cases require hospitalization and 5% need critical care (both very low numbers based on data to date, because we are only testing the at risk population for the most part,) then at 30,000 confirmed cases in NYC area, we need 1500 ICU beds. There are currently about 2100 and they are 80% full. New York is headed for trouble.

The other thing that is scary to me is once we pull through this initial outbreak, it will likely slow down in the summer, but ratchet back up in the October/November timeline if it has not been completely eradicated by then. (Not necessarily to the London Model, but t makes sense that if most of the world hasn't developed immunity and it hangs around in the northern hemisphere and probably exacerbates in the southern hemisphere this summer, it will be back when it gets cold again.)

The nightmare scenario is if this fall/winter return coincides with a 2017-18 type flu season. It would be catastrophic. The best piece of luck we had in this whole deal is when it started... If the Chinese wet market story is true... Good thing it happened in December and not September or October. It's much better to deal with a respiratory outbreak in March/April than December/January.

Between now and the end of fall, I hope we find a great antiviral or therapeutic treatment. Not enough time for a vaccine... It's too risky to inject an entire population with an untested vaccine. In the meantime we should stock up big-time on ventilators, ppe, and all the other necessary items.

I would also look at mass education for some kind of short term respiratory therapist program. Take all of the recently unemployed and give them a chance to take a crash course on how to staff up for the next outbreak if it happens. Since we are already going $2 trillion deep in this disaster, I figure another $50 bn for 350k extra ventilators and people to operate them is chump change to insure against another and potentially bigger shutdown/bailout. Not to mention all of the lives that could be saved.

 

[Misfit]

You should have shut up long before you did. As an independent who loves my country and doesn't trust either political party, what I see is a president who routinely fabricates, refuses to believe our own intelligence reports, and screams fake news everytime the press truthfully reports anything that shows him in a negative light. And I don't watch any tv news service and don't get my news from CNN.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Even if we get a handle on it, it will return after the combination of international flights being reinstated and the possibility of mutations which could lead to altered tropisms. That is why a non-vaccine therapeutic option is so important. It could be Remdesivir in combination with chloroquine which I think we will see high efficacy with. We have to find an alternative to extended mass shutdowns, period. There's only so many economic shocks that the governments of the world can paper over with bond buying.

 

[Todd4State]

This admin, like all prior, is letting state governments make those calls, while the fed government is removing red tape so states have more flexibility to do what's best for their citizens. To suggest we're putting all of our eggs in one basket (the vaccine) and displacing strict quarantine as a result is simply not true.

All I'm saying is that our quarantine could have been stricter.

 

[jakldawg]

I saw the "medium.com" part and was thinking it might lead to "the other" widely circulated article that has been spread rapidly online (which I'm sure there's a catchy term for...maybe something co-opted from science...I'll ask around, maybe I'll get it then) especially on certain social media platforms.
Anyway, here's an actual UW biology professor debunking it point-by-point.
So, stay safe. Avoid people, wash your hands and don't let some Pollyanna tech-bro Dunning-Kruger your parents and grandparents into the ICU.

 

[birdawg]

All I'm saying is that our quarantine could have been stricter.

Ok. It sounded like you were saying Trump was putting everything into vaccination which was displacing other solutions, since that was the question I posed

 

[J-Dawg]

My neighbor threw a party yesterday. It’s going to take stricter measures for a quarantine to work.

Agreed that that is ignorant of your neighbors, but how many of your neighbors didn’t throw a party? Minus children playing outside, our neighborhood of 100 houses has been eerily quiet.

Remove the subjects and it’s the same argument that’s made for banning all guns. Letting a minuscule % of cases that verify an argument dictate the fate of the vast majority of cases that don’t.