Probably the most comprehensive analysis you will see in one place.
- Thread starter DesotoCountyDawg
- Start date
Seems countries South of the Equator
are not experiencing near the #cases, as those North of it.
Yes, they have it, but much more limited.
are not experiencing near the #cases, as those North of it.
Yes, they have it, but much more limited.
Most people South of the equator don’t have the means to travel like they do in the north. That’s got to be at least part of it.
It's summer down there, now. Not sure if the heat has anything to do with it. I know our virus' tend to calm down in the summer.
I think that’s being driven by the weather / season. It’s been warmer down there. That’s part of the reason people are optimistic it’ll die down as we enter summer.
It’s likely that heat and humidity have some effect. It’s also true that there were fewer people traveling to these countries early in the start of the epidemic and they are just a few weeks behind. We can only pray the weather has some effect.
Social distancing, which is mitigation, is worthless and just delays the inevitable crash of their healthcare system by a handful of weeks. Tens of millions will still die.
That's the big takeaway.
No to mitigation.
Yes to supression.
That's the big takeaway.
No to mitigation.
Yes to supression.
You speaking of world wide?
This is what they reported in China. (not sure what you can trust).
This is what they reported in China. (not sure what you can trust).
Total Confirmed Cases
81,008
Active cases
Recovered cases
Fatal cases
81,008
Active cases
6,013
Recovered cases
71,740
Fatal cases
3,255
Interesting article. There is currently a Dengue fever outbreak going on in Latin America. In 2019 they saw 20% more cases than the previous high which occurred in 2015. I wonder if this will affect the course of Covid-19 in any way.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...ses-are-hitting-record-highs-in-latin-america
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...ses-are-hitting-record-highs-in-latin-america
China currently has an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1). Though it rarely infected humans, this can destroy poultry industries. They have already started killing thousands of chickens in an attempt to get in front oft this. Something to keep an eye on.
Yes it is but it’s going off what data we know. There’s so much we don’t know because of limited testing. Japan and S Korea have done a great job of reducing their infection rate.
We need to dramatically ramp up testing. We can test fewer that 10,000 people a day right now. Even if we got it to 100,000 a day, it would take nine years to test everybody in America.
As a country, we need to get testing up to 5 million tests per day to have a chance.
As a country, we need to get testing up to 5 million tests per day to have a chance.
I don’t understand where the tens of millions number comes from? Have that many people even been infected world wide? This is where I feel like some people are getting lost and ignoring the warnings. People are throwing these numbers out there without any real basis.
They've moved toward suppression in California and New York. People in other areas have dramatically reduced social activity.
If the death rate of known cases (4.2%) is correct, you'd have to have 235,589,614 cases. Currently, 4 months in, we have 306,677 known cases. If you operate on the premise that we have more cases than have been recorded, then the death rate is lower and you'd have to have even more than 235.5 million cases worldwide
ETA... my math was to get to 10,000,000 deaths
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Read the article. The mortality rate will climb exponentially when the health care system gets overloaded and runs out of ICU beds. Patient that needs to go to ICU + no room and no doctors to care for them = dead. Pretty simple. That goes for someone with coronavirus, heart attack, a fall down the stairs, cancer, gunshot wound, or anything else. We are quickly headed that direction as the number of new cases continues to double every 3 days. Somewhere between 2,500 - 3,000 Americans are in ICU beds as we speak due to COVID-19, and there are only up to 100,000 beds in the country (and that’s after converting other rooms over to ICU rooms). 2,700 could turn into 100,000 and thus completely topple the health care system in about 3 weeks time if we don’t do something drastic right the 17 now.
I don't think we can even begin to detail the many cultural differences between those two countries and our own that make it possible for their governments to issue requests for behavioral change that are actually heeded. Also, frankly, the level of cultural diversity in some countries is a huge disadvantage in large scale implementation. There are going to be large groups in a very diverse country that are inherently distrustful of whichever group is in power, no matter who/which group it is.
Our population is so divided in so many ways -- and we've been so trained to focus on the differences -- that I truly fear that we cannot mount a unified resistance to an actual threat (as opposed to the fabricated political threat crisis du jour).
I'm afraid we hit a perfect storm of a legitimate threat, two waves of lies from China, and a 50% domestic distrust of an openly hostile prevailing news media.
I'll shut up now. Sorry.
When hospitals fill up with those that have contracted it (We only have 1M hospital beds in a country of 330M.) Once those beds fill up and ER’s are running over, where do car wreck victims, heart attack and stroke patients go? Will they be seen in time to save their lives? I’m hoping we can stretch this out long enough that it doesn’t come to that but it’s easy to see how a pandemic could end up having more victims that don’t catch the virus than victims actually afflicted with it.
I did read the article and I’ve read several others that suggest millions of deaths in the US. But I don’t understand how we go from hundreds of thousands infected worldwide to tens of millions dead in the US. That sounds like an outrageous number put out there to sensationalize the subject.
In the summary of the article, it says tens of millions will be infected and many will die. I didn’t think I read in there where this was predicting tens of millions to die.
I think the article did a good job. I agree that shutting things down seems to be the best path forward. I’m just scared of the economic impact and I think most reasonable people should be.
And that’s the catch. Do you shut it down for let’s just be optimistic and say 5-6 months and just destroy the economy to nothing or do you just let it happen. It’s not pleasant any way you slice it.
Speaking in general terms, most of the countries south of the equator are places where malaria is much more common than north of the equator. As a consequence, medications (such as chloroquine) to prevent the spread of malaria are more commonly taken there. This would *suggest* that chloroquine and possibly other related malaria medications could possibly hold hope of being effective in some ways against coronovirus. It’s certainly not *proof* but could point in that direction.
I’m not a doctor but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
I’m not a doctor but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
My neighbor threw a party yesterday. It’s going to take stricter measures for a quarantine to work.
Less than 1 billion people live in the Southern Hemisphere. The other 6.5 billion live in the northern hemisphere.
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