Putting aside how the OM administration handled the investigation, and putting aside the lack of institutional control charge, for anyone who can make the comparison: how much have schools been punished that cheated similarly to how Ole Miss did? How were the coaches who got 'failure to monitor' treated? And if the LOIC sticks, what is the least a program has ever gotten for it?
Ole Miss has the 'honor' of being the first school in football to go before the COI under the new matrix. It's also odd because some of the charges will be using the old standards, so anything under Nutt's watch will fall there.
As far as the 'failure to monitor' I believe given the number of coaches involved in allegations, it will be pretty stiff. I think Freeze will get at least a one year suspension for that alone. However, he is named in a Level 1 violation for improper recruiting (allegation 5, sections e, j, and o). The COI, under the new matrix, has already handed out show cause decisions to other coaches at other schools for less. I will be absolutely shocked if he isn't given a show cause.
As for the rest, according to the matrix the football program is getting nuked if it all holds up. I personally think they could go in the neighborhood of 60 scholarships and still not max out the penalties. But honestly, who knows?