More research: Possible destinations

[615dawg]

Vanderbilt's win locked down all 11 SEC bowl tie-ins.

Playoff: Alabama
Sugar: LSU for argument's sake
Citrus: Florida for argument's sake

TaxSlayer, Outback, Belk, Music City, Liberty, Texas: Some combo of Auburn, Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, A&M, Tennessee

Birmingham: South Carolina
Independence: Vanderbilt

Mississippi State cannot go to a traditional SEC tie-in. So what's available?

Guaranteed vacancies:

Cactus. vs a Big 12 team (Pac 12 will not supply a team). Chance to play a 6 or 7 win Big 12 team at the Arizona Diamondbacks stadium.


Cactus bid apparently goes to MWC if Pac 12 does not have enough teams.

Las Vegas. Mountain West vs. Pac 12. The Pac 12 does not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill this spot. This bowl is played at UNLV. This is where we are projected.

Bahamas. No AAC team available. vs. MAC team. Sponsored by Popeyes Chicken and Biscuits. Played in a 15,000 seat soccer stadium.

Armed Forces. Navy has already accepted. The Big 12 will not fulfill their bid. North Texas (the other APR guarantee) is being projected there. It is played at TCU, so North Texas may be the preferred pick.

C-USA has one more eligible team than spots. So it's North Texas, Mississippi State and an unnamed C-USA team going after the three above spots. Bahamas has a deal with C-USA coming up next year, as in Conference USA has purchased the bowl game. I expect the unnamed C-USA team to go to Nassau, but it is a conformed vacancy.

Possible vacancies:

Hawaii. Hawaii will get the bid if they beat Massachusetts tonight. If UMass wins, Hawaii is open. This will be a C-USA opponent. This bowl is played at Aloha Stadium. If Hawaii loses, Texas is the next APR team.

Arizona. If South Alabama or UL Monroe loses, this spot opens up. This will be a Mountain West opponent. This bowl is played at the University of Arizona.

Heart of Dallas. vs C-USA team. The Big Ten may not be able to fulfill this bid, depending on the number of teams in NY6 games. If they get 3 as expected, this spot is open.

 

[civildawg88]

Would love vegas

 

[Utah_Chaney]

Vegas would be a cool spot to land. Easy trip from out here.

 

[Bulldogg31]

At this point are we 100% in?

 

[Utah_Chaney]

I've learned nothing is ever 100%, but all the signs are pointing to yes.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

We are being projected to Las Vegas by some sites.

 

[Shamoan]

Against whom?

 

[tatedog]

Do they actually think Las Vegas can accommodate all the degenerate gamblers we would bring?

 

[Utah_Chaney]

Do they actually think Las Vegas can accommodate all the degenerate gamblers we would bring?

I think they'd be more than happy to accommodate.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Google Flights has a $187 round trip, non-stop New Orleans-Las Vegas flight leaving on Friday Dec. 16 and returning Sunday Dec. 18.

 

[615dawg]

We are being projected to Las Vegas by some sites.

Ive seen that. The one rule that I have not been able to clarify is the one about a conference tie-in being required to take a 5-7 team. If that's the case, the Heart of Dallas could choose someone like USM and send North Texas somewhere else to fulfill their tie-ins. In that case, Vegas would be the only opening unless Hawaii, USA or ULM lose.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Against whom?

Wyoming I believe

 

[InTheIttaBenaHotSun]

I'm all for playing in Fort Worth but not if it's against Navy or any team that runs the triple option. I still have nightmares about our trip to the Orange Bowl two years ago.

 

[Carbaryl]

Against whom?

Vs the winner of the Wyoming/SD State game next weekend.

 

[notoriousD_O_G]

Thanks for all of your work on this

 

[LawDawg97]

If it were Heart of Dallas (my choice)

You could see Dak play Monday night Dec. 26 and the bowl the next day Dec. 27. Save the money on the vegas flight and buy Cowboys tickets.

 

[615dawg]

Traditionally the Mountain West champion. San Diego State (9-3) plays Wyoming (8-4) next week in their championship game.

But, technically, the LV bowl just has the first pick, and 10-2 Boise State is a sexy pick against an SEC team.

Wyoming scores a lot a points, but they were blown out by Nebraska. They scored 66 in a loss this season. Wyoming won the ahead to head with Boise, and Boise's loss to Air Force Friday knocked them out of the championship game.

San Diego State spent some time in the Top 25 and has already beaten Wyoming this season. They beat Cal but lost to South Alabama. They can put some points up too, but they have a decent defense.

 

[Shooter McGavin.sixpack]

If ULL wins and gets to 6 wins there will be more eligible sun belt teams than spots. What bowl will they go to?

 

[civildawg88]

You could see Dak play Monday night Dec. 26 and the bowl the next day Dec. 27. Save the money on the vegas flight and buy Cowboys tickets.

That would be pretty cool

 

[pDigital32Dawg]

615, you the real MVP

 

[civildawg88]

What would have happened if we beat south Alabama and ended up 6-6? Wouldn't the sec have more bowl eligible teams than bowl tie ins?

 

[rynodawg]

More than likely, the Birmingham Bowl would have picked us over USC and Vanderbilt due to proximity.

Getting Las Vegas or Dallas instead isn't a bad consolation.

 

[00Dawg]

A few scenario notes:

ULL and USA are both Sun Belt teams, and that conference has 5 bowl tie-ins with 4 teams already eligible.
If both ULL and USA lose, the Camellia Bowl could be the open slot, as it's bowl payout is a spectacularly low $100k, or it could be the Arizona Bowl due to distance from most bowl-eligible Sun Belt teams.

Assuming both win, which appears likely, the Sun Belt pecking order would probably put ULL in Montgomery, making the likely selection order:
USA/USM for slots 1 and 2 (USM is not an option for the Heart of Dallas Bowl)
UNT (for 5-7 teams, the bowl selection is left up to the team, in order of APR rating)
Mississippi State

Bowls expected to be open:
Las Vegas Bowl vs MWC
Bahamas Bowl vs MAC
Armed Forces Bowl vs Navy
Heart of Dallas Bowl vs C-USA (It's a given that 3 Big 10 teams are going NY6 at this point, the question is if you get 4 in, and I think the answer is a definitive yes, which opens up this slot.)

In play if one or both of ULL and USA lose:
Arizona Bowl
Camellia Bowl

Those bowl in descending order of payout:
Las Vegas Bowl: $1.35 million
Heart of Dallas Bowl: $1.1 million
Armed Forces Bowl: $675k
Bahamas Bowl: $400k
Camelia Bowl: $100k
Arizona Bowl: unknown


Random thoughts:
How does geography vs payout play into this?
USM already caught hell for their bowl trip to Hawaii in 2011, so do they pass up double the money to take a trip to Fort Worth over Las Vegas?
How does the C-USA future tie-in with the Bahamas Bowl factor in? Will the conference push USM to take an island vacation?
What about USA and UNT? If USA gets the Heart of Dallas Bowl, does North Texas take the money of Vegas?

 

[BulldogBlitz]

You could see Dak play Monday night Dec. 26 and the bowl the next day Dec. 27. Save the money on the vegas flight and buy Cowboys tickets.

that'd pretty much rule.

 

[13thEagle]

The nola bowl gets first pick of the belt teams. Given their past history of ticket sales its a good bet that bowl would want Laffy against us. That is what we are hearing.
The heart of dallas bowl isnt bad. i enjoyed watching my team in the cotton bowl. It is 100x cleaner and nicer than legion field.
I could see you guys there vs La Tech