Let's do a little math, shall we. At 33%, you score 1 pps, the same as shooting 50% from 2. You know who shoots 50% from 2?? Only the top 85 field goal percentage players in the NCAA. If your best shooter is shooting 33%, it is a problem. If your 3rd or 4th option to shoot a 3 is shooting 33%, you are fine.
Did you read my post?? Grady was a career 35% 3pt shooter when he transferred to UK, and most people called him a shooter. We can talk about slumps all day, but the truth is, every shooter has them. If you are going to subtract the slumps of the guys last year, then let's subtract the slumps from all guys going forward. I used last year's team because the conversation was centered on the offensive end. The issue after the injuries last year wasn't so much the offensive end, it was the defensive end. We lost in the first round, not because we couldn't score, but because we couldn't keep them from scoring.
The reason we looked like the best team in the country for a period of time was because we were putting the absolute clamps on people. We beat UT like a drum in Rupp because we forced them to turn the ball over a lot, which allowed us to get out in transition where we killed them. Getting out in transition meant we scored quickly, which led to a high number of possessions and we looked great. Injuries made us less effective on the defensive end, and we ceased looking like the best team in the nation. Which brings me to this point, know why we were able to beat LSU and Alabama without TyTy and Wheeler?? Mainly because we had to play Brooks and Toppin together (one of them at the 3), which made us a better defensive team with the size. We beat LSU shooting a combined 2-12 from 3, which included a banked 3 from Toppin. Fans would have crucified Cal, but he really probably should have stuck with that type of line-up going forward when you only had 4 perimeter players and 3 of the 4 were battling issues.
Actually Grady was a career 36.6% (rounds to 37%) 3pt shooter before coming to UK. He only made less than 37% in 1 of his 4 seasons (37, 34, 37, 38). And he improved that at UK to 41%, even after his late season slump.
That is why I am optimistic for Reeves, who made I think 39.8% (40%) last year, BUT was much worse the year before (I think low 30's). For Grady I think the increase was due to him not having to be "the man" to get a bucket at UK, where he was just one of the options, so he probably took better quality shots (although every game it seemed like there was 1 WTF shot that he made). Reeves also will be a contributor instead of "the guy", so hopefully he too can maintain near 40%.
Of course Fredrick we know can shoot, if he can stay off the trainers table, is our 1st 3pt option.
I see Reeves our 2nd. And Wallace our 3rd.
After that I would not be surprised if the 4th option was (in order) Toppin, Livingston, Collins, Oscar, Wheeler.
Ware should just try to master a FT first, and Theiro won't play much.
Wheeler made a good % after mid-January (41%), but keep in mind that was just 12 made. And I think 2 of those were banked in (LUCK), but even subtracting those 2 that still put him at 34% which I would take. BUT 29 attempts is still a small sample size, looking at the confidence interval around 35% with 29 attempts we would be 90% confident his true 3pt % is between 20% & 50% which is a huge range. But still I would be ok with anything in the 30's from Wheeler. But his form is SO BAD, and his shot is SO FLAT, I think his true % is really in the 20's.
And you are probably right (in retrospect) about the line-up make up late in the year.
