Year 1 for Leach at TT / WSU

[Go Budaw]

2000 at Texas Tech and 2012 at Washington State...

- 19 total games against Power 5 teams (including BYU)
- Scored 17 points or less TEN times in those 19 games
- Scored 7 points or less in 5 of those 19 games, over 25% of the time
- Averaged just 21.8 PPG in those 19 games
- Also scored 13 points in a game against North Texas, and 24 in a game against FCS Eastern Washington
- Averaged 25 points a game against 4 G5 schools to start the season in 2000

All along, there has been an absolute mountain of evidence that this system doesn’t work very well in Year 1. Just about all of us (myself included) chose to ignore it. Not even to mention that all of the above results happened without a global pandemic taking a giant **** on the offseason preparation for either of those teams. We thought a grad transfer from Stanford somehow wouldn’t basically be a true freshmen in this offense, just like everyone else. We all thought it would be Minshew part II, completely disregarding that Minshew ran the same system in high school, and he was the only one learning a new playbook at WSU in 2018.

I’m not excusing last night by any means....you can’t have three times as many interceptions as you do points in any game and expect to not catch a ton of hell, under any circumstances. And obviously it’s frustrating when you compare the results to what Mullen did in Year 1 and to what Kiffin is doing. But, this is who we hired. For better or worse, there’s going to be a lengthy, likely multi-year process to get this offense to where it needs to be. Hopefully there will be enough sporadic success in the short term to keep this first year from being a complete throwaway, but either way we’re probably gonna have to be patient. After firing the last guy after only 2 seasons, there’s no way Leach isn’t getting at least 3. At least we can already see most of the effort and conditioning issues have been resolved. Still need to reign in some discipline problems with penalties.

 

[johnson86-1]

2000 at Texas Tech and 2012 at Washington State...

- 19 total games against Power 5 teams (including BYU)
- Scored 17 points or less TEN times in those 19 games
- Scored 7 points or less in 5 of those 19 games, over 25% of the time
- Averaged just 21.8 PPG in those 19 games
- Also scored 13 points in a game against North Texas, and 24 in a game against FCS Eastern Washington
- Averaged 25 points a game against 4 G5 schools to start the season in 2000

All along, there has been an absolute mountain of evidence that this system doesn’t work very well in Year 1. Just about all of us (myself included) chose to ignore it. Not even to mention that all of the above results happened without a global pandemic taking a giant **** on the offseason preparation for either of those teams. We thought a grad transfer from Stanford somehow wouldn’t basically be a true freshmen in this offense, just like everyone else. We all thought it would be Minshew part II, completely disregarding that Minshew ran the same system in high school, and he was the only one learning a new playbook at WSU in 2018.

I’m not excusing last night by any means....you can’t have three times as many interceptions as you do points in any game and expect to not catch a ton of hell, under any circumstances. And obviously it’s frustrating when you compare the results to what Mullen did in Year 1 and to what Kiffin is doing. But, this is who we hired. For better or worse, there’s going to be a lengthy, likely multi-year process to get this offense to where it needs to be. Hopefully there will be enough sporadic success in the short term to keep this first year from being a complete throwaway, but either way we’re probably gonna have to be patient. After firing the last guy after only 2 seasons, there’s no way Leach isn’t getting at least 3. At least we can already see most of the effort and conditioning issues have been resolved. Still need to reign in some discipline problems with penalties.

Not only that, we are sucking in the way that you would expect us to suck (on offense; defense has obviously been a pleasant surprise).

Our WRs are dropping balls. Our qb and wrs aren’t in the same page against zone. We knew we didn’t have a an ready and now that it turns out kostello isn’t it, we are going to struggle at the most important position on the field.

The thing I am seeing on offense that does have me really concerned is UK getting pressure with3. Our OLine shouldn’t be ******, especially against UK. That’s coaching/scheme.

 

[RocketDawg]

Has Leach ever had a game where the offense failed to score at all, other than last night?

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

That's all well and good but here are the points scored by a Leach team when facing a drop 8 rush 3 defense of the caliber he'll face every week from here on out this season:

2013 Apple Cup: 17
2014 Apple Cup: 13
2015 Apple Cup: 10
2016 Apple Cup: 17
2017 Apple Cup: 14
2018 Apple Cup: 15
2019 Apple Cup: 13
2020 Arkansas: 14
2020 Kentucky: 2

That's an average of 12.7 points per game. The scheme change and the virus have a part to play for sure, but there's ample evidence that his teams can't beat that defense even when his players are steeped in his system. We are not likely to see anything but that defense the rest of the year. If anything this is an indictment of both Leach & Pellini.

 

[johnson86-1]

That's all well and good but here are the points scored by a Leach team when facing a drop 8 rush 3 defense of the caliber he'll face every week from here on out this season:

2013 Apple Cup: 17
2014 Apple Cup: 13
2015 Apple Cup: 10
2016 Apple Cup: 17
2017 Apple Cup: 14
2018 Apple Cup: 15
2019 Apple Cup: 13
2020 Arkansas: 14
2020 Kentucky: 2

That's an average of 12.7 points per game. The scheme change and the virus have a part to play for sure, but there's ample evidence that his teams can't beat that defense even when his players are steeped in his system. We are not likely to see anything but that defense the rest of the year. If anything this is an indictment of both Leach & Pellini.

That’s not the only time he faced a drop 8 defense. It’s not like teams in the PAC12 don’t scout. They knew what Washington did. It is a concern, but we won’t know until we have time to get our qb and WRs on the same page.

 

[coach66]

Our OL was not recruited to be elite pass rush

Guys they were smash mouth running game guys and it shows. Our wide receivers are not elite and our QB is not athletic and one dimensional and a terrible decision maker. A few of the reasons we suck on offense and will continue to suck until we have the right guys at all positions.

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

It is the Pedro Cerrano syndrome. You remember Cerrano, dude from the movie Major League - now spokesman for All State Insurance - he could hit Home Runs every time they pitched a Fast Ball to him. But, if they pitched a Curve Ball he was 17ed.

We all watched the LSU game, we saw good Offensive execution, a ton of yards, and a bunch of points...against Man To Man coverage on Defense. But as soon as Arkansas played Zone Defense against us we were 17ed.

That's my concern with Leach right now, his system is not getting beat by superior talent right now - instead his system is getting beat schematically / Xs and Os. Now I know he is an Offensive Genius (mainly because he himself keeps telling us that he is) but he needs to figure out a concept to beat 3-8 Zone Defense to actually prove that he is in fact an Offensive Genius.

View attachment 18217

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

Guys they were smash mouth running game guys and it shows. Our wide receivers are not elite and our QB is not athletic and one dimensional and a terrible decision maker. A few of the reasons we suck on offense and will continue to suck until we have the right guys at all positions.

That’s supposed to be Leach’s mo though. Take under rated guys and make the offense work.

 

[Hump4Hoops]

It feels like Leach is a bad Paper Scissors Rock player

Leach keeps throwing scissors, and all his opponent has to do is throw rock. No rushing threat = no deep ball opportunities.

 

[Maroonthirteen]

That’s supposed to be Leach’s mo though. Take under rated guys and make the offense work.

Exactly. The current DC didn't recruit his players. But they are playing lights out.

Leach is running the same 8 plays he has ran for 18 years. Defenses have solved him and read every play before it happens. It isn't the players.

As far as run block vs pass block OLs.... State has never been able to cherry pick OL. We take any 6'3+ 300lb kid we can find and plug them in. Leach better figure it out.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

It’s the only time he faced that scheme from a defense that approximated SEC talent.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Leach has been extremely successful at his previous head coaching jobs, greatly elevating traditional non-powers. He will probably do the same thing here.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

It’s the only time he faced that scheme from a defense that approximated SEC talent.

So Washington of all teams has SEC-caliber talent, but no one else in Pac-12 does? Give me a break...

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

Exactly. The effort the last two games on offense are what will be noticed by the type of recruits he needs and they are going to be second guessing whether they can be successful against SEC defenses if the come here. These performances could scare a lot of QB and WR guys away. He will have to get OL recruits from outside of Mississippi because the type he needs don’t exist here.

 

[Go Budaw]

It’s the only time he faced that scheme from a defense that approximated SEC talent.

********. You think Washington is more talented year in and year out than Oregon, Stanford, USC?

 

[The Usual Suspect]

The BIG XII is trash in football. I wouldn’t go by anything related to TT.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Okay, if I’m wrong, just show me 9 games where a defense employed that tactic and Leach torched them. I’ve given 9 examples where he can’t break 20 against it. Surely if I’m wrong there will be many examples to the contrary. Go for it. Show them to me. Otherwise you’re full of it.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Okay, if I’m wrong, just show me 9 games where a defense employed that tactic and Leach torched them. I’ve given 9 examples where he can’t break 20 against it. Surely if I’m wrong there will be many examples to the contrary. Go for it. Show them to me. Otherwise you’re full of it.

Everybody (except Bo Pelini) runs that defense against him. Usually his teams execute well enough to crack it.

Several of those Apple Cups were played in blizzards (not making excuses, just stating facts), which had more to do with the losses than a defensive scheme that other schools had employed less successfully. Also, his teams got unlucky some and also choked with a bid in the Pac-12 Championship Game on the line.

 

[patdog]

It's funny how the Leach apologists' tune has changed. All I heard all summer long was how much more talented our offense is than either the TT or WSU offenses he started off with, which is true. Score 17 points? How many times did those offenses not score 17 points in TWO games combined? How many times did those offenses get shut the 17 out? How many times did those offenses go 20 straight possessions without scoring a point?

 

[Ibdancin]

That's all well and good but here are the points scored by a Leach team when facing a drop 8 rush 3 defense of the caliber he'll face every week from here on out this season:

2013 Apple Cup: 17
2014 Apple Cup: 13
2015 Apple Cup: 10
2016 Apple Cup: 17
2017 Apple Cup: 14
2018 Apple Cup: 15
2019 Apple Cup: 13
2020 Arkansas: 14
2020 Kentucky: 2

That's an average of 12.7 points per game. The scheme change and the virus have a part to play for sure, but there's ample evidence that his teams can't beat that defense even when his players are steeped in his system. We are not likely to see anything but that defense the rest of the year. If anything this is an indictment of both Leach & Pellini.

Horseshack shite!

You seem to be suggesting that for YEARS and YEARS everybody was so damn stupid to not run a zone defense. That they were so damn stupid not to study Washington's defense even.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Are we sure that everyone ran that scheme? We know for a fact that Peterson & Lake did at Washington. We know for a fact that Arkansas & Kentucky did the same.

And are we sure that the teams included in everyone approximated SEC caliber talent on defense? If he torched Oregon State with it, I'm not sure that's the same thing.

What I'm saying is that there are 9 examples of teams with talented defenses running that scheme and absolutely shutting Leach down. I'm still waiting on one or two examples to the contrary.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

I'm suggesting that there are 9 examples where we know two things: the team ran the scheme AND the team had a somewhat talented defense.

I'm happy to eat crow if you can show me several examples where Leach's offense succeeded against a talented defense that dropped 8 consistently.

 

[Ibdancin]

Guys they were smash mouth running game guys and it shows. Our wide receivers are not elite and our QB is not athletic and one dimensional and a terrible decision maker. A few of the reasons we suck on offense and will continue to suck until we have the right guys at all positions.

So much RIGHT in this.

1- KJ is not going to run. Even if he does, he's too slow. But yes, watch the film of other QBs in his system and you will see they do and are allowed to run and we need that mentality by the QB in my opinion. it would give that extra elements.

2- WRs are great in man. But they have not had any time facing a zone. Nor has KJ.


3- That OL will grow. The edge guys are young. Cross got beat many times and was pounding his fist.


They will get there and we will excel.

 

[Go Budaw]

The BIG XII is trash in football. I wouldn’t go by anything related to TT.

The point is that this offense didn’t even work well against those “trash football” defenses in Year 1. So, we really have no idea about the long term prospects of it working here, and won’t know for awhile if it can.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

They might be. I don't know if Oregon, Stanford or USC had talented defenses or not. I don't know if they ran the same scheme as Washington did.

It's tangential but Washington has just as many Playoff appearances (1) as those three programs combined. So it's not crazy to say they might've been the most talented defense in the Pac-12 under Peterson. I haven't done the research but it's not an off-the-wall assumption.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Yeah I thought the talent gap between Wazzu and the PAC-12 was greater than MSU and the SEC. But maybe it's not. 16 points in 8 quarters against, I REPEAT, the two worst defenses we'll face this year has got me questioning everything.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Here's a table of the number of defensive players Pac-12 and SEC schools have had drafted over the last 8 years. Admittedly, Washington was a little higher than I expected, but in line with lots of other Pac-12 defenses where Leach performed well against. I've also included Leach's record against each team, along with the 2015-2019 record, since the first 3 years he lost a whole lot of games transitioning them from a beyond godawful team to a good Air Raid team.

Outside of Alabama, Florida, and LSU, the remaining SEC defenses aren't particularly more talented the Pac-12 ones. So it's reasonable to think Leach's scheme can be as successful against the rest of the SEC as it was against the Pac-12. And Leach has already beaten one of those big 3.

 

[Go Budaw]

It's funny how the Leach apologists' tune has changed. All I heard all summer long was how much more talented our offense is than either the TT or WSU offenses he started off with, which is true. Score 17 points? How many times did those offenses not score 17 points in TWO games combined? How many times did those offenses get shut the 17 out? How many times did those offenses go 20 straight possessions without scoring a point?

I don’t know which “apologists“ you are referring to, but since the reply is to me I’ll tell you I certainly never said that (nor do I really consider myself a Leach apologist anyway). All talent is relative to the competition. It doesn’t matter if we have twice as much talent as Washington State or Tech on offense because we know the SEC West has 10x the talent of the Big 12 and Pac 12 North teams. Mathematically there’s some hyperbole there, but you get the drift. The ultimate question is can it succeed against defenses that have more talent than our offense, which is what we are going to face more often than not on our SEC schedule. History says it can, but we are going to have to get the WR’s and QB on the same page and fix the OL issues before we really know. The repetition required to iron out all the nuance of when WR’s break off routes and sit in a zone, how blocking assignments are adjusted, etc. seem to take some time.

 

[Ibdancin]

Gotta love the calls for the guys job already! LOL!


You know, it's a great idea to replace the coach every 3 games. Talk about great for recruiting!

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Thank you for this.

He does already have a win against a big boy but he has two losses against teams with lower rankings while only scoring 16 points. If you can guarantee we're gonna see success like his 2015-2019 run then that makes these losses easier to swallow but as a lifelong state fan, I'm skeptical.

 

[anon1787432961]

4 year plan people.

 

[PineGroveBully]

Beats tenureplan, though I believe he could have coached us to pay dirt at least once last night.

 

[patdog]

According to your chart, the Kentucky defense is real close to the worst defense in either league. That’s not really making me feel better about things.

 

[Ibdancin]

Beats tenureplan, though I believe he could have coached us to pay dirt at least once last night.

Leach coached us to pay dirt 2 or more times last night.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

According to your chart, the Kentucky defense is real close to the worst defense in either league. That’s not really making me feel better about things.

No, yesterday was the mother of all **** sandwiches. There's no spinning that.

I'm just disagreeing with the fact that the Leach offense is inherently incapable of succeeding in the SEC.

 

[patdog]

So far, the results tend to show otherwise. If freaking Kentucky can shut us down so easily, we’re in big trouble. I’m seeing the mist simplistic & predictable offense I’ve seen in a long time. SEC defenses will eat that up. But if any more play press man coverage with little safety help, we will absolutely torch them for 500+ yards.

 

[Mobile Bay]

It is the Pedro Cerrano syndrome. You remember Cerrano, dude from the movie Major League - now spokesman for All State Insurance - he could hit Home Runs every time they pitched a Fast Ball to him. But, if they pitched a Curve Ball he was 17ed.

We all watched the LSU game, we saw good Offensive execution, a ton of yards, and a bunch of points...against Man To Man coverage on Defense. But as soon as Arkansas played Zone Defense against us we were 17ed.

That's my concern with Leach right now, his system is not getting beat by superior talent right now - instead his system is getting beat schematically / Xs and Os. Now I know he is an Offensive Genius (mainly because he himself keeps telling us that he is) but he needs to figure out a concept to beat 3-8 Zone Defense to actually prove that he is in fact an Offensive Genius.

View attachment 18217

The problem isn't the scheme. The problem is our offensive line is playing like they are all drunk on Jobu's rum. If five people can't block three, than nothing else matters.

 

[patdog]

Pretty sure you don’t get to count the snapper snapping the ball 40 yards behind the punter as “coaching us to pay-dirt twice.”

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Pretty sure you don’t get to count the snapper snapping the ball 40 yards behind the punter as “coaching us to pay-dirt twice.”

If our receivers could catch balls that hit them in the hands, we would have had 14 points instead of 2 of our interceptions yesterday.

Would, coulda, shoulda, sure. But that was successful scheme and poor execution.

 

[Ibdancin]

Pretty sure you don’t get to count the snapper snapping the ball 40 yards behind the punter as “coaching us to pay-dirt twice.”

I'm not. I'm talking inside their redzone and passes being made to the wrs in the endzone.


3 times.... in fact.



It's not Leach's fault Wally did not catch the pass that hit him in both hands. That's 1.

It's not Leach's fault that Mitchell allowed the ball to be taken away from him in the end zone. That's 2.

It's not Leach's fault that KJ over threw an open guy in the back of the endzone... That's 3.


Just like it's not Leach's fault that Cam dropped 3 passes.



Again. it's not the scheme. It's inconsistencies that we have had under 3 coaches. 3 staffs. At least they are being addressed now.