Yeah drops happen. Just not this often.
- Thread starter paindonthurt_
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That’s a ******** formula and it’s really misleading information. The reason why Fitzgerald’s is high is because of so few completions. He has so few completions not because of a bevy of drops but because he’s inaccurate AF. If he completes 10 passes and has 2 drops that’s 2/12= 16%. What if he’s 10/27 like he pretty much was against Kansas State? 10/27 with 2 drops and people are blaming receivers? Smh if you have 2 drops on 27 passes that’s pretty good for college.
And I think the reason why Fitzgerald is high is because of the elevated levels of THC in today's marijuana.***
Jesus I can’t believe I’m saying this but I agree to a point. The only thing this shows is KY and AL WR’s are doing a fantastic job of catching the ball. Here are completions for comparison. Of course Fitz has quadruple drops to Tua’s vs 7/8’s completions.
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Not that I am saying Fitz is Elway, but when John Elway came to the NFL, WR’s were having trouble catching the ball because he threw so hard and they were dropping passes and getting the “Elway Cross”, a cross - shaped bruise from the tip of the ball when they caught a pass with their body.... The Broncos told the WR’s to either catch the ball or they would get new WR’s....
I love Fitz, but the receiver could be 6 yards away and he is going to cannon the ball in there. I don't care if it's OBJ, he is not going to catch as high of a percentage of Fitz' passes as he would Tua's. Think you are on to something preach...
Seriously? If you wear these (see below), you should catch anything. Also, receivers didn't wear gloves much during Elway's early years.
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One less drop vs Florida and we are likely 5-1 and ranked in top 20, maybe top 15.
Probably a couple important drops vs Kentucky that could have turned that game around, too. A drop on 1st and 10 on our own 20 when we still make the first down is one thing, but a drop on 3rd and 10 at the 50 forcing us to punt is another.
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving
Didn't realize how amazing the cowboy WRs were and how bad Aaron Rodgers is
I see why it was done that way, but it can still be misleading. It's not the percentage of passes thrown that are dropped. That would be largely meaningless, because it would be skewed by all of the passes that weren't catchable (over or underthrown, etc.). It's calculating the percentage of catchable balls that are dropped (catchable = completions + drops).
But if you dig deeper, and use the available stats and this drop %, you can find the percentage of catchable balls thrown (completions + drops / attempts).
As some might have guessed, Fitzgerald is ranked last at 59.3%. He's one of only two QBs in the SEC who throws a catchable ball less than 60% of the time (the other is Burrow of LSU). Tua leads the league at 74.8%.
If anyone can complain, it's Guarantano of Tennessee. His catchable ball % is 73.6% (2nd in the league), but his drop % is the 3rd highest in the league.
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It's not a ******** formula. It doesn't change the fact that Fitz is the worst passer in the conference. But I can't believe the number of posters who keep getting triggered every time our receivers are criticized. They're easily the worst group in the league, and the worst we've had since the Croom era. The bottom line is, if you can reach the ball, you have to catch it. Fitz throws enough bad passes, we don't need our receivers dropping the good ones he does throw. And yes, the drops hurt us. Like MedDog points out, if Osiris Mitchell catches that pass against Florida, we're 5-1, ranked in the top 15 and everything is fine in Bulldogland.
It seems to be the cool thing to blame Fitz but look what he's dealing with. He throws a lot of passes that are just bad but some of you act like it has to hit them in the numbers or they can't catch it. Good receivers make plays. They fight for the ball when it's in the air. Even on balls that aren't thrown well. Remember Moulds? Taite didn't exactly throw beautiful passes all the time.
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What this tells me is that there's a good correlation between talent at QB and talent at WR. Doing a little bit of excel analysis can get me a trendline (with a 25% R-squared value, so take it with a grain of salt) which shows more talented QBs (higher catchable pass percentage which is (comp+drops)/total) have receviers with lower drop percentages. The big surprise here is Terry Wilson. By these metrics he's only marginally less talented than Fromm and his receiver group is likewise marginally less talented. Both QBs line up almost on the trendline. According to the trendline, Fitz is significantly less talented than our receivers, but he's not the worst. That title belongs to Joe Burrow of LSU. He's as talented (within the margin of error) as Fitz, but his receivers are middle of the pack in the SEC. The three SEC QBs who are most talented compared to their receiver groups are Bentley, Guarantano, and Ta'amu. But for State, we're untalented all around. Sad situation.
One thing I want to see is this broken out by targets and distance. I said receivers above because I have no idea if it's RBs, WRs, or TEs dropping (or catching) the passes and what distance the passes are going. I would also have to factor out "strategic" drops, e.g. dropping an inbounds pass while going to the ground in a 2-minute offense situation. In that case a drop is actually the better course of action for the receiver.
One thing I want to see is this broken out by targets and distance. I said receivers above because I have no idea if it's RBs, WRs, or TEs dropping (or catching) the passes and what distance the passes are going. I would also have to factor out "strategic" drops, e.g. dropping an inbounds pass while going to the ground in a 2-minute offense situation. In that case a drop is actually the better course of action for the receiver.
A 50% passer + a poor pass blocking OL + Receivers who jog routes, don't aggressively go for ball, and drop passes that hit them in hands or numbers = SHATTY PASS OFFENSE
Run the damn ball 90% of the time and wear their DL, LBs, and safeties butts out and 10% of the time have Fitz play action and chunk it through the goalpost and 10 rows into the stands to scare the crap out of them. This is how we HAVE to win. There is no Aaron Rodgers on our roster, but we have NFL caliber runners and run blocking OL.
Run the damn ball 90% of the time and wear their DL, LBs, and safeties butts out and 10% of the time have Fitz play action and chunk it through the goalpost and 10 rows into the stands to scare the crap out of them. This is how we HAVE to win. There is no Aaron Rodgers on our roster, but we have NFL caliber runners and run blocking OL.
I would argue that last year's was just as bad, if not worse. The early Mullen years had decent WRs but they were all under 6ft tall - it was like a roster full of slot guys. Now we've got some height but they're too slow or can't catch.
Other than a handful of guys, we've mostly had WRs that wouldn't start for decent SEC teams. Bumphis, Arceto Clark, Chris Smith, Malcolm Johnson, Fred Ross, Wilson, Jameon Lewis, Fred Brown. That's 8 guys in the last 10 years that would probably start for other SEC teams. But that's all I can think of. Probably could add Jordan Thomas as a TE, maybe Joe Morrow or Donald Gray... I think Guidry will come around and end up being pretty good.
Our WR talent has been pitiful for a LONG time. In the history of MSU football, we basically sign less than one WR per year that should be starting in the SEC. Hopefully JoMo can do better than that.
Other than a handful of guys, we've mostly had WRs that wouldn't start for decent SEC teams. Bumphis, Arceto Clark, Chris Smith, Malcolm Johnson, Fred Ross, Wilson, Jameon Lewis, Fred Brown. That's 8 guys in the last 10 years that would probably start for other SEC teams. But that's all I can think of. Probably could add Jordan Thomas as a TE, maybe Joe Morrow or Donald Gray... I think Guidry will come around and end up being pretty good.
Our WR talent has been pitiful for a LONG time. In the history of MSU football, we basically sign less than one WR per year that should be starting in the SEC. Hopefully JoMo can do better than that.
I was thinking of Eric Moulds the whole time I was reading this thread, glad I wasn't the only one.
I remember during the Croom years, I was randomly watching some midwest team (maybe Purdue) and they were throwing/catching 50-yard passes consistently. And they weren't even a good team. I was thinking "why can't we do that"? Instead, I was just grateful when we actually caught the ball. That's no way to live.
Then Mullen came, and things got better... Then Dak led us to the promised land...
And now I'm back to just being grateful when we catch the ball. And it's no way to live... aGain.
Taite also had a terrible completion percentage even with Moulds. Drops are a function of both how accurate your QB is and how good your receivers are. We are absolutely terrible in both areas. So, it’s not surprising at all that we are worst in the SEC in this stat.
The other thing is it’s crazy how fondly we remember Moulds, who has been gone for 22 years now. Not that he wasn’t good, but every other SEC team has had a minimum of about 2 or 3 Eric Moulds caliber receivers in the time since we had him, and many of them have had way more. Speaks to how terrible our WR recruiting has been for about 25 years.
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In obvious passing situations, Fitz is usually running for his life before he can get his feet set.
OL pass blocking is an issue for us keeping a clean pocket for QB. But my concern is with the RPO style offense. QBs have to throw the ball without setting their feet. You are usually rolling out and reading a pass defender, so you fling the ball instead of setting and throwing. Favre, Vick, Manziel, Tarkenton, Flutie, Cunningham, etc. all would have thrived in an RPO offense, but it takes a special gunslinger. JoMo has to find that guy.
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And I can find 20 or 30 examples of
non catchable balls he has thrown to support my argument. So.....
non catchable balls he has thrown to support my argument. So.....
Weak comparison. First off, that lists number of drops, not percentage. Indianapolis is near the top of that list, but Luck is throwing it 55-60 times a game. Secondly, drops are a function of the receiver AND the QB. If either is bad, they can happen. Also, the Cowboys WR’s 100% suck, but not necessarily because they can’t catch. They just can’t get open.
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