Will Rogers

[Dawgg]

I know we keep saying Rogers needs to take more risks and shots downfield...

and I think there's a lot of truth to that.

That being said, this time last year, we were complaining about Costello being TOO loose and risky with the ball.

Maybe someday before I leave this mortal coil, we will find a quarterback that takes the right amount of risk with his throws.

 

[Cooterpoot]

I'll say it. Rogers would be a great #2 or G5 QB possibly. But he's a system guy whose system isn't doing much. Not sure he'd do much in another system.

 

[thatsbaseball]

His "shots downfield" all look like Hail Mary's to me.

 

[8dog]

Can you analyze the next Cowboys game? Because it was totally different. Which is the whole point. They are running what they need to run to win given the situation/personnel.

Also they played one of the best dlines in the NFL. We played a team that gave up 650 yds to Ark st which had EIGHT! Pass catchers with a reception of 20 yds or greater

 

[She Mate Me]

I hear ya… but if we won this game 29-24 I would still be wondering why the 17 we don’t have a goal line package, why we don’t take easy points, and why Rogers only throws downfield when we are losing.

You'll get no disagreement from me on any of these points.

 

[rynodawg]

If Memphis was the defending national champs, with a high ranked defense,, that would be more of an apples to apples comparison.

 

[She Mate Me]

So are you saying he don't thrown to the check down alot? 2 of top 3 in receptions are RB and the top receiver was WMarks up until the last game so it's not completely false. And comparing his stats to Graham Harrell up to this point is ridiculous. He probably has better stats than what a ton of great QB's had up to this point. That don't mean ****. He is missing the "it" factor that is needed for QB's in this system. (See Minshew) An overwhelming will to win at all costs. He just don't have it. He is at best a CUSA QB.

Why are you asking what I'm saying when I pretty clearly typed what I'm saying? You said "we have a QB that most of the time hits the check down", which is false. He hits the check down RB about 30% of the time, not most of the time.

And hitting the check down is a major part of this offense. They are basically long handoffs to RBs who hopefully have room to operate a bit.

Comparing a true sophomore to other good QBs when they were sophomores is perfectly reasonable.

 

[047Dog]

From SEC web page:

Passing Yards

NAME	YDS
Will Rogers, QB	1083
Matt Corral, QB	997
Connor Bazelak, QB	897
Max Johnson, QB	863
Bryce Young, QB	811
Complete Leaders

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Yes and what many in this thread have been saying all along is look beyond those numbers, beside the fact that “ohhh Weeeel is #1”

Rogers has 67 more completions than Corral for 86 more yards. Also, Corral’s team is currently averaging over 250 rush yards per game. The huge difference between Rogers and the rest of the league QBs is that his passing yardage accounts for about 95% of his team’s total yardage. When you look at it as a whole, his numbers are pedestrian.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

You are missing a little context pawpaw.

Memphis gave up 680 yards against Arkansas State in their last game
Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl and gave up 350 yards against the Chiefs in their last game. All 22 starters returned for Tampa Bay by the way.

FYI, Memphis is currently ranked 127th in total defense. They are giving up 574yds per game through 3 games. 468 yards for State... 20% below the average and closer to Nicholls State in offensive output than Arkansas State.

In case you were wondering, LA Tech is 114th in total defense. 435 yards given up to State. 578 to SMU. 594 to Southeastern La.

We did put up 316 against NC State though, thats considerably more than Furman and about 40 yards more than USF... The 115th ranked offense in the country.


8.38 YPCompletion is absolute garbage in college by the way. For the season, Mississippi State is averaging 8.9 YPCompletion, 118th in the country. The rushing game is somehow better at 2.7 YPCarry which is 112th in the country. It is the least explosive offense on earth. TOP is good though, 20th in the country without running the ball.

I will hold out judgement on Rogers and the offense for a few more weeks, but up until now, we have considerably underperformed teams like Southeastern LA, SMU, and Arkansas State against the same defenses.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Good comparison wrap it dog. But Dallas probly had 150 rushing yards too. Will needs to go downfield more. That 2 play touchdown was beautiful and could probly have happened every time we had the ball

Good Comparison? Dubmass.

One guy played the defending Super Bowl champs who returned the entire starting 22. The other guy played a middle of the pack AAC team with the 127th (out of 130) ranked defense. It would be a good comparison if Rogers had done it against Alabama.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Coach him up then *******. Maybe we shoulda hired you as a coach. You seem to be an expert. Bama will kick our *** for sure. I don't think our true sophomore QB is ready for that yet.

 

[MSUDC11]

From SEC web page:

Passing Yards

NAME	YDS
Will Rogers, QB	1083
Matt Corral, QB	997
Connor Bazelak, QB	897
Max Johnson, QB	863
Bryce Young, QB	811
Complete Leaders

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It’s not a volume issue, it’s an efficiency issue. We pass the ball more than anyone else in the country so we dang sure better be near the top in passing yards. But the QBR and yards per attempt numbers are not nearly as kind to Will.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

I didn’t watch the NCST game, but I watched all of La Tech and a good bit of Memphis game (1st quarter at home) and then the 4th quarter once I got to Ole Miss game and they had it on during lightning delay). And there appear to be 2 major things that are keeping this offense from taking off:

1. Red Zone efficiency. I don’t know if the stats back it up or not, but it seems to mostly work between the 20’s, but when the field shrinks, it gets much more difficult.

2. State is seeking to really struggle when they get off schedule. And it’s often self-inflicted. But when it’s working, it’s really working. But it seems like if you get a false start on a 2nd and 4, the punter might as well start warming up. It’s weird.

If I were to add a 3rd thing it would be that you’re going to have to take 2-3 shots a game downfield, to stress the defense. I understand teams are running a drop 8 which makes it more difficult, and they’re going to continue to do it until you make them stop. But there are opportunities down the field, Rogers just isn’t seeing them or isn’t trusting himself to turn it loose.

You guys are absolutely going to upset someone this year. Maybe a couple teams. The defense is too good and the offense will improve. It has to. Knowing our luck it’ll be us you upset with Atlanta on the line, lol

 

[FrontRangeDawg]

We pass the ball 85% of the time. It is not impressive for him to have 1,083 passing yards. Corral and Bazelak are damn close, and those teams run the ball effectively. They also score a lot. I would argue that, given the percentage of passes we call, he should have 1,300-1,400 yards (that's based on a 8.5 yd/attempt). Rogers doesn't have the arm strength or the vision to quickly ID his receivers. The reason it's important is that every defense KNOWS that he's not really looking at his receivers unless they are on a bubble screen or dragging directly in front of him, so they can stay close in and give up the field for the big play that is never coming. It's not working. I want it to, but it's not.

2021 Stats
Corral 43-65 997 yds 10.39/attempt 9 TDs
Rogers 122-163 1083 yds 6.6/attempt 8 TDs

 

[Ralph Cramden]

My point earlier was saying most teams also have rushing yardage to add to it. Will would need 15 or 1600 yards to equal OM yardage. Om has a 3 pronged rushing attack as well where we have Wills numbers and about 40 yards rushing. Our passing stats should be ridiculous and if we ever start winning they will have to be. Its our whole offense.

 

[dawgstudent]

Can you analyze the next Cowboys game? Because it was totally different. Which is the whole point. They are running what they need to run to win given the situation/personnel.

Also they played one of the best dlines in the NFL. We played a team that gave up 650 yds to Ark st which had EIGHT! Pass catchers with a reception of 20 yds or greater

Winner is 8dog.

 

[CadaverDawg]

I thought this was interesting. 9 attempts of 20+ in 150+ attempts. Seems a little less than ideal. Is that on Leach or Will? Wouldn't think Leach would tell him not to throw deep if guys are open.

ETA: Didn't see the thread DS started on this. My apologies

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

Why are you asking what I'm saying when I pretty clearly typed what I'm saying? You said "we have a QB that most of the time hits the check down", which is false. He hits the check down RB about 30% of the time, not most of the time.

And hitting the check down is a major part of this offense. They are basically long handoffs to RBs who hopefully have room to operate a bit.

Comparing a true sophomore to other good QBs when they were sophomores is perfectly reasonable.

I just watched a highlight video of GHarrell in his sophomore year....not even close to what we are seeing. You have to be a major sunshine pumper to miss what's wrong with this offense. Did he throw to RB? yes...some. But he also took many chances downfield. He wasn't afraid of throwing an interception like our QB is.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

Will is a sophomore and has a 145 QBR

Here's Matt Corral as a sophomore:
2019 Mississippi RebelsMatt Corral #2Passing Split Statsthrough 01/13/2020

• 2021
• 2020
• 2019
• 2018

Split	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
All Games	10	178	105	59.0	1362	7.7	6	3	131.02	17.8	136.2
at Home	6	125	77	61.6	999	8.0	5	1	140.33	20.8	166.5
on Road/Neutral Site	4	53	28	52.8	363	6.8	1	2	109.04	13.3	90.8
in Wins	3	56	39	69.6	520	9.3	4	0	171.21	18.7	173.3
in Losses	7	122	66	54.1	842	6.9	2	3	112.57	17.4	120.3
vs. Conference	6	86	51	59.3	729	8.5	4	2	141.21	14.3	121.5
vs. Non-Conference	4	92	54	58.7	633	6.9	2	1	121.49	23.0	158.3
vs. Ranked (AP)	3	36	18	50.0	195	5.4	1	1	99.11	12.0	65.0
vs. Unranked (AP)	7	142	87	61.3	1167	8.2	5	2	139.10	20.3	166.7
vs. FBS (I-A)	9	148	84	56.8	1123	7.6	4	3	125.37	16.4	124.8
vs. FCS (I-AA)	1	30	21	70.0	239	8.0	2	0	158.92	30.0	239.0
vs. FBS Winning	5	94	50	53.2	585	6.2	1	2	104.71	18.8	117.0
vs. FBS Non-Winning	4	54	34	63.0	538	10.0	3	1	161.28	13.5	134.5
vs. FBS Power 5	7	127	73	57.5	995	7.8	4	2	130.54	18.1	142.1
vs. FBS non-Power 5	2	21	11	52.4	128	6.1	0	1	94.06	10.5	64.0
in August/September	4	114	68	59.6	844	7.4	4	1	131.67	28.5	211.0
in October	2	33	20	60.6	257	7.8	0	1	119.97	16.5	128.5
in November	4	31	17	54.8	261	8.4	2	1	140.40	7.8	65.3
in December/January	0	0	0	-	0	-	0	0	-	-	-

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Ive seen this comparison a lot, and I get it. But it’s truly irrelevant, when you consider the offense Corral was in. It was horrendous.

There’s no doubt that Corral has grown tremendously, heck he looks way better this year than last, and he was good last year. And it’s obviously reasonable to assume Rogers will grow as well. But to try and compare Corral’s numbers in a Rich Rod (or Longo) offense versus Rogers in Leach’s offense is apples to oranges. There’s just not much of any correlation, other than just general development. Corral held a clipboard and watched Plumlee run the same 4 plays over and over, most of the season. Now he’s the betting favorite in Vegas for the Heisman. There’s a whole lot more to that than just practicing and maturation. That’s coaching and play calling. Which it’s presumed Rogers won’t experience.

 

[forestdepth]

My kids go to Brandon Highschool. My son was a Freshman when Will was a Senior. When Will was in highschool one half he kids thought he sucked at QB and the other half thought he was what they needed. So it is not surprising that's what's going on here. I want to keep him at QB. I wish he had a little more speed which would have helped on those two point conversions but on the other hand if our two RB's were healthy we might have been able to get the ball in the end zone at least once.

Wow, this is eye opening. Imagine being a senior QB at a high school in MS and the team is divided on if you’re the guy or not. He’s now a starting QB in the SEC West. That is frightening.

 

[Drebin]

This is not any kind of argument about our QBs strengths and weaknesses, fitness to be the starter or ability to find and hit receivers 20 yards away.

But 3 games into a season we have a QB who has thrown for nearly 1,100 yards, completing 122 passes at a 75% clip, with 8 TDs and 1 interception.

And it feels like more than half the fanbase wants him benched. I don't know the answer, but I do find that pretty amazing.

A more accurate description of what our fan base does too much is take someone's honest criticism of a player and interpret that to mean they hate him or want him benched. That's particularly true with the sheep over at Jean's, and it's becoming more and more true here too.

It's possible to offer a honest assessment of how he's played while at the same time understand that he's the best we have right now. I think that's where most rational people are with will right now.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I think where a lot of the "sunshine pumpers" as they are called here take offense to some of the criticism is just the incredibly dumb statements that go overboard in their attack. Constantly saying he can't throw the ball over 5 yards is just ridiculous. I agree that he does not throw it 20 to 30 yards downfield nearly often enough. Or the comment that 90% of the time he dumps it to the backs. I always wonder if they even watch the games. Or that if you have a positive statement you need to go to Genespage. Thats a dubmass statement as you guys like to say. Is it against the rules to say dumbass ?? True enough this offense is frustrating about half of every game. It does show more promise than last year. The fact it hums in the 4th quarter is even more frustrating because you know it can all game.

 

[Drebin]

I think where a lot of the "sunshine pumpers" as they are called here take offense to some of the criticism is just the incredibly dumb statements that go overboard in their attack. Constantly saying he can't throw the ball over 5 yards is just ridiculous. I agree that he does not throw it 20 to 30 yards downfield nearly often enough. Or the comment that 90% of the time he dumps it to the backs. I always wonder if they even watch the games. Or that if you have a positive statement you need to go to Genespage. Thats a dubmass statement as you guys like to say. Is it against the rules to say dumbass ?? True enough this offense is frustrating about half of every game. It does show more promise than last year. The fact it hums in the 4th quarter is even more frustrating because you know it can all game.

I haven't seen one serious comment here or anywhere stating that Will can't throw the ball past five yards. When you say stuff like that, you're no better than the people you're criticizing.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

You should reread some posts then. I have seen it. May just be hyperbole but anyone paying attention knows better. We can all agree we want fewer short passes and more long 20 to 30 yard passes. And its totally his decision. He runs this offense. But he is capable of throwing the ball. Also the statement about the backs catching all the passes. Or let me say that's the ones that I think are stupid comments. But we all see what we wanna see. I see the offense working good at times and that frustrates me even more. I know we could do the 2 play scoring drive at almost anytime, if they execute

 

[Drebin]

You should reread some posts then. I have seen it. May just be hyperbole but anyone paying attention knows better. We can all agree we want fewer short passes and more long 20 to 30 yard passes. And its totally his decision. He runs this offense. But he is capable of throwing the ball. Also the statement about the backs catching all the passes. Or let me say that's the ones that I think are stupid comments. But we all see what we wanna see. I see the offense working good at times and that frustrates me even more. I know we could do the 2 play scoring drive at almost anytime, if they execute

Link 'em. Criticizing him for checking down to five yard throws, or for only averaging about five yards per throw, isn't the same thing as "he can't throw past five yards." We all recognize he can throw the ball down the field. His issues are a lack of arm strength relative to most QBs and his lack of confidence to take chances with the football.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Definitely isn't able to throw 30 yard darts and hell no im not looking up dubmass comments and linking them. I don't need to prove what I saw...lol. He needs a little more Brett Favre in him but it is what it is. And the fact that this team is very young is another problem. Its not even open to debate but only one way to fix that.