Why is everyone scared that Saban will be focused and kill us?

Smoked Toag

Redshirt
Jul 15, 2021
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History does not back that up. One big thing, they have not played two road games in a row very many times since Saban became dominant.

Here's some of how they followed up losses:

2010: Road loss to South Carolina, mediocre performance at home vs. a bad Ole Miss
2011: Loss to LSU at home, didn't play well in Starkville the next week vs. 6-6 MSU
2012: Nothing to really compare, had a patsy after A&M loss
2013: Follow up Kick Six loss with a loss to Oklahoma in bowl
2014: Road loss to Ole Miss with a one point win over a mediocre Arkansas team on the road
2015: Nothing to compare, patsy after Ole Miss loss
2016: Dominant all year
2017: Follow up Auburn loss with natty, but let's be real, they go rejuvenated by their surprise entrance in the playoffs
2018: Dominant all year
2019: Follow up their LSU with a fairly lackluster game in Starkville vs. a team that is falling apart
2020: Overpowering all year
2021: We'll see, but haven't played well on the road, so what evidence is there that they'll play BETTER when playing 2 in a row?

So outside the years where they were just plumb better than everyone, the evidence points toward them being flat yet again. I don't know that they've ever truly been 'up' when playing in Starkville, as the margin of error is determined largely on how good we play. 2014 is the year I am looking at, as that's the last time Bama has been vulnerable (and of course no one took advantage). Very similar team as this year, defense is wobbly, QB isn't super great, and their offense is largely the tailback. And if nothing else they probably had better talent back then (Henry, Cooper).

Not to mention Saban is looking old and beat down lately. He might be becoming human again.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
60,228
31,266
113
Last week means nothing on Saturday. If anything, it shows that Alabama isn't as dominant a team as they usually are. We'll probably lose. But what happened last week won't have anything to do with it. And heck, we might even win.
 

FQDawg

Senior
May 1, 2006
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Counterpoint: they haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since his first season in 2007.
 

Smoked Toag

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Jul 15, 2021
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Last week means nothing on Saturday. If anything, it shows that Alabama isn't as dominant a team as they usually are. We'll probably lose. But what happened last week won't have anything to do with it. And heck, we might even win.
Sequencing of the schedule means a great deal. As I showed, they simply haven't had to play many good teams in back to back road games over the past 10 years.
 

Smoked Toag

Redshirt
Jul 15, 2021
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Counterpoint: they haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since his first season in 2007.
Fair, but again, the true opportunities haven't been there for that to happen as much, and they rarely play great after a loss, even if they do win.

I'm not trying to say we will beat them, but we have a fighting chance. This won't be a beating unless we just do not show up.
 

MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
7,316
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I think most of our fans just won't believe we can beat Bama again until we actually do it. 2007 was a long time ago, our freshman class hadn't even started Kindergarten the last time we beat Bama. And the majority of our losses in that time have been total beatdowns. The "playing Bama after a loss" narrative is not actually as bad as many people think it is, but it's easy to use in our case when we haven't had success against them in forever.

I think we have a better than zero percent chance of winning, but it's not high. It will require us catching a few breaks that we ordinarily do not get against them.
 

GloryDawg

Heisman
Mar 3, 2005
20,564
19,149
113
Just like last week Saban was on the sideline and not on the field. He can't make the plays for his guys.
 
Aug 22, 2012
2,761
1
31
Last week means nothing on Saturday. If anything, it shows that Alabama isn't as dominant a team as they usually are. We'll probably lose. But what happened last week won't have anything to do with it. And heck, we might even win.

Our defense better strap in because I'm sure their O-Line will come out with something to prove. We need to control the ball and get a few turnovers to even be in the game in the fourth.
 

SKYHAWKdawg

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2019
124
0
0
Not worried about Saban....more concerned with the self inflicted stuff. I have this vision of Metchie running down the middle of the field with no maroon jersey in the area code or a dropped pass in the endzone. Don't think bama gives up a consecutive K/O return for 6. Thanks aggies.
 

hdogg

Senior
Nov 21, 2014
1,205
789
113
Based on the small amount of the game I saw, I say we blitzz every play on defense.
But otherwise... they never lose twice.
 
Sep 1, 2011
2,507
211
63
Counterpoint: they haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since his first season in 2007.

Countercounterpoint: Until last week, Saban had never lost to a former assistant. There are always firsts, but may not be this weekend, who knows.
 

mcdawg22

Heisman
Sep 18, 2004
13,594
11,949
113
History does not back that up. One big thing, they have not played two road games in a row very many times since Saban became dominant.

Here's some of how they followed up losses:

2010: Road loss to South Carolina, mediocre performance at home vs. a bad Ole Miss
2011: Loss to LSU at home, didn't play well in Starkville the next week vs. 6-6 MSU
2012: Nothing to really compare, had a patsy after A&M loss
2013: Follow up Kick Six loss with a loss to Oklahoma in bowl
2014: Road loss to Ole Miss with a one point win over a mediocre Arkansas team on the road
2015: Nothing to compare, patsy after Ole Miss loss
2016: Dominant all year
2017: Follow up Auburn loss with natty, but let's be real, they go rejuvenated by their surprise entrance in the playoffs
2018: Dominant all year
2019: Follow up their LSU with a fairly lackluster game in Starkville vs. a team that is falling apart
2020: Overpowering all year
2021: We'll see, but haven't played well on the road, so what evidence is there that they'll play BETTER when playing 2 in a row?

So outside the years where they were just plumb better than everyone, the evidence points toward them being flat yet again. I don't know that they've ever truly been 'up' when playing in Starkville, as the margin of error is determined largely on how good we play. 2014 is the year I am looking at, as that's the last time Bama has been vulnerable (and of course no one took advantage). Very similar team as this year, defense is wobbly, QB isn't super great, and their offense is largely the tailback. And if nothing else they probably had better talent back then (Henry, Cooper).

Not to mention Saban is looking old and beat down lately. He might be becoming human again.
Here is some history. If we combined our (State’s) scores for the last 6 years against Alabama and put them in last years game, we’d still lose 41-40.
 
Nov 12, 2007
25,971
10,124
113
Counterpoint: they haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since his first season in 2007.

I'm pretty sure we still don't have the talent to beat them for four quarters but there is a first time for everything. I can promise you that every coach who knows or thinks he may have to face them was paying attention and watching everything that Texas A&M did because it wasn't some fluke play like running a FG miss back for a TD, aTM dominated Bama the whole first half and most of the end of the game when it counted.
 

RotorHead

Senior
Mar 26, 2019
706
577
93
2012 - W vs Kentucky (27-14)
2013 - L vs LSU (59-26)
2014 - W vs Tx A&M (48-31)
2015 - W vs Mizzou (31-13)
2016 - L vs Aub (38-14)
2017 - W vs BYU (35-10)
2018 - L Vs LSU (19-3)
2019 - L vs Ten (20-10) & L vs Ala (38-7)
2020 - L vs Ala (41-0), L vs UGA (31-24), and L vs Aub (24-10)

After 9 seasons and 12 post-bye week games, MSU has won 4 times after a week off.
 

BigDawg0074

Senior
Oct 12, 2016
1,367
718
113
Bama looked unprepared for half of that game and they made atypical mistakes. The past has no effect Saturday’s game but we should expect Bama to be more focused this week and reduce some of the mistakes. Unfortunately MSU will probably need Bama to make some key mistakes in order for State to win. The ideal situation would be for State to consistently move the ball, keep Bama guessing, and punish them when they take defensive risks.
 

Seinfeld

All-American
Nov 30, 2006
11,595
7,790
113
I appreciate y’all’s wool, but let’s just say that I’ve got my list of honey dos dusted off for Saturday just in case
 

Pilgrimdawg

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2018
1,799
2,320
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Alabama was not ready last week and neither were the SEC officials. Im sure they got a stern reprimand from the Birmingham front office on Monday. The SEC officials will be in rare form this week with a clear focus on protecting the cash cow from any further risk of missing out on the playoffs.
 

Bill Shankly

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2020
2,095
0
0
Maybe because he will? Also, the SEC will NEVER allow Bama to lose two straight. The only way we win is if we are good enough to beat them by 20 to overcome the refs. We aren't.
 
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Ghostman

Sophomore
Nov 28, 2002
8,138
107
43
Bama has struggled on the road so far this year. No reason that shouldn't continue this week.
 

Maroonthirteen

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
1,975
0
0
As this week has progressed, State fans have seemed to focus on a baseball scrimmage rather than the football game.
 
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