You make some good points and the concern, I think, is relatively justified; but we’ve had episodes like this before in recruiting. There seems to be a lot of credence placed on the idea of a kid “favoring” UK in such a way as to make a UK pick somewhat predictable for fans, as if the predictable quality is normative. The reality is, none of us saw Bam coming (early on), or Gabriel, or SKJ, or Briscoe, or Murray, or Ulis, or Skal. Monk was a coin flip; so was Booker. Ulis came out of nowhere in a short period of time following Mudiay’s flip. The rumor mill was not kind to the idea of Randle playing with the twins and up until a few weeks before he selected UK in the spring, few of us saw him as realistically UK-bound. In fact, of UK’s last thirteen five star recruits – dating back to spring of ’13 and excluding the guys UK landed this fall – only Towns, Lyles, and Fox fit the criteria of being a UK lean for extended periods of time. Three of the remaining ten were coin flips: Randle, Booker and Monk; and seven of the remaining ten came out of nowhere following semi-short recruitments or recruitments that were not considered UK leanings: SKJ, Gabriel, Briscoe, Bam, Ulis, Murray, Labissiere.
Young is as much a UK-lean as Knight was (Florida, UConn) or Wall (Baylor) or the Harrison twins (Maryland). There was doubt in all of those recruitments and two of those guys picked UK very late in the process (Wall, Knight). If UK lands Young and Alexander, Calipari is essentially one semi-surprise commitment away from alleviating all the concern your post is exhibiting. All it would take is for one of Knox, Diallo, Walker to change direction (not unheard of when one considers the aforementioned list of players) or for UK to surprise some folks with a Green commitment and/ or establishing winter inroads with wings like M.J. Walker, Brian Bowen, Kris Wilkes, etc. to supplement Young. Really, landing a guy like Knox changes everything from a concern level. You surround him with Young, Alexander, a grad transfer or two, and the wing positions (Knox/Washington) and the interior (Humphries, SKJ, Richards, possibly Bamba) become UK’s strength next season. The guards would just have to be adequate.
I would agree that losing Young in the spring would be enormously detrimental, but one could have said the same about losing Knight in the spring of '10 from a guard level or Jones in the same period from a frontcourt level of impact (or Noel in '11, as well as a dozen other guys who decided late).