Where are we ceiling/floor now?

[Seinfeld]

Surely the floor is 4-8 with wins against Vandy and TN St, right?

Does anyone see a ceiling any higher than 7 wins? Beat LSU, UK, and somehow one of either A&M, Ark, or OM? I don’t think I’m speaking out of turn when I say that we’re probably going to be 7-10 pt underdogs against each of the last three

 

[57stratdawg]

So, basically we're roughly where everyone thought we would be..? I understand the frustration with the team so far under Leach, but sometimes I think we lose sight of the fact that everyone expected this team to win between 5 and 7 regular season games.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

It feels like a high ceiling, but yes 7 would be the top. ARK and A&M will be tough. Those defenses are really, really good. Especially against the pass. ARK is only giving up 142 passing yards per game so far... A&M is at 77. That's crazy low.

I also worry about UK, but I think our defense can steimy them. Stoops always has a good secondary and linebackers and he is a DB coach by trade. Those 6 interceptions last year are hard to forget, it's almost as if UK new where the ball was going every throw.

 

[patdog]

We're right where I thought we would be right now at 2-1. But I think our floor/ceiling is 1 game lower. I'm revising 5-7 wins to 4-6 wins.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Still sticking with 6-6.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

I see a ceiling of 9. Injury luck. Turnover luck. Quarterback improvement. There's all kinds of things that can happen.

Of course, that could work against us too. But it's not crazy to think we beat just about anyone on our schedule other than Bama.

 

[Cooterpoot]

I'm not sure the floor and ceiling aren't the same- 4 wins. I can't see a win beyond that without some luck other than maybe KY.

 

[dickiedawg]

If we find a way to win this weekend, we’re right back on track. (You could say since most expected a loss to NC State, we were never on track to begin with)
The ceiling is probably 7 wins and it will be very tough to get there. To get to even 6 wins we’ll have to win 2 games we’re picked to lose. The smart money right now would be on 5 wins. This is a crappy place to be.

 

[dorndawg]

I see a ceiling of 9. Injury luck. Turnover luck. Quarterback improvement. There's all kinds of things that can happen.

Of course, that could work against us too. But it's not crazy to think we beat just about anyone on our schedule other than Bama.

If you're gonna dream big, why not put us down for beating Bama?

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

But it's not crazy to think we beat just about anyone on our schedule other than Bama.

That’s not crazy. That’s a redheaded hairdresser named Candi kind of crazy.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

 

[Smoked Toag]

I see a ceiling of 9. Injury luck. Turnover luck. Quarterback improvement. There's all kinds of things that can happen.

Of course, that could work against us too. But it's not crazy to think we beat just about anyone on our schedule other than Bama.

You need to get off that crack

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

That’s not crazy. That’s a redheaded hairdresser named Candi kind of crazy.

The question was ceiling. So name me the team on our schedule that we absolutely cannot beat no matter what. Guaranteed loss. Other than Bama of course.

 

[the dog is on the loose]

Honestly this isn’t meant to be a pick on Rogers but an honest opinion but if he can’t hit receivers downfield any and he’s still throwing 3-5 yard passes then good defenses will eat us alive. I can’t see but two more wins tops.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I am extremely pessimistic right now. I am a firm believer in the idea that there are light years of difference between the caliber of athletes on an SEC defense and Memphis/LaTech. It just feels like those little floaters all over the middle of the field will get picked/knocked down a whole lot more against SEC speed. And I am damn certain the offensive line will be facing much better athletes. The O-line has to improve starting this week.

SE Louisiana put up 42 on LA Tech and Arkansas State put up 50 on Memphis. 114th and 127th ranked defenses and we still put up less than the average yards against both. We only put up 316 against NC State.

With all that said, I think LSU is a **** team with great athletes. If we score 25-30+ against them, I will completely change my tune. It just feels like the offense already bogs down at times against inferior competition. Hopefully it's just growing pains.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

If you're gonna dream big, why not put us down for beating Bama?

Is the question what is our ceiling or how many do we think we will win? Those seem like different questions but I did make higher than 24 on the reading section of the ACT so what do I know?

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

I see a ceiling of 9. Injury luck. Turnover luck. Quarterback improvement. There's all kinds of things that can happen.

Of course, that could work against us too. But it's not crazy to think we beat just about anyone on our schedule other than Bama.

YES WE CAN BEAT ANYONE ON OUR SCHEDULE, INCLUDING BAMA!

but only if...
on at least 5 of the other team's offensive possessions, the ball is fumbled or tipped right into the hands of a State defender and that defender is able to run the ball all the way into the endzone for Touch Down! (but, he's got to score, we can't depend on our offense to punch it in).

Then we have to successfully kick the extra point each time. Can that happen? Hell, yeah, it can happen. It could happen in each of our next 9 games.

And if that happens, IT IS A FACT: we beat just about anyone on our schedule - including Bama!

Hail State!

 

[Seinfeld]

You’re not wrong. I think the first issue is that while I never saw this team’s ceiling as being anything more than 7 wins, I did think we’d comfortably get to 6. Now, I’m fairly certain that we’re not going to be favored in more than two remaining games, and we’re gonna have to pull a few upsets just to get to that.

Second, it’s always tougher when you see your counterparts like Ark and OM taking off. These teams were in significantly worse positions less than two years ago, but they have blown by us like an I-40 trucker on Friday afternoon

 

[johnson86-1]

The question was ceiling. So name me the team on our schedule that we absolutely cannot beat no matter what. Guaranteed loss. Other than Bama of course.

If you are taking that definition of ceiling, that's fine I guess, but then our floor is 2 or possibly 3.

 

[johnson86-1]

I am extremely pessimistic right now. I am a firm believer in the idea that there are light years of difference between the caliber of athletes on an SEC defense and Memphis/LaTech. It just feels like those little floaters all over the middle of the field will get picked/knocked down a whole lot more against SEC speed. And I am damn certain the offensive line will be facing much better athletes. The O-line has to improve starting this week.

SE Louisiana put up 42 on LA Tech and Arkansas State put up 50 on Memphis. 114th and 127th ranked defenses and we still put up less than the average yards against both. We only put up 316 against NC State.

With all that said, I think LSU is a **** team with great athletes. If we score 25-30+ against them, I will completely change my tune. It just feels like the offense already bogs down at times against inferior competition. Hopefully it's just growing pains.

I'm pretty much right there with you, except that I think Will might actually play better against better competition. I think it will force him to be more aggressive.

The problem is that I'm not sure what is going to happen to our OLine play against SEC athletes. Outside of the penalties, they've looked pretty good to me and Will has had plenty of time to throw. I am expecting to either add to penalties or for Will to start getting sacked a lot more. So I'm still pretty pessimistic that Will playing better is going to result in enough improvement to offset having to deal with our OL getting beat more often.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

If you are taking that definition of ceiling, that's fine I guess, but then our floor is 2 or possibly 3.

What other definition is there?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

If we lose to Tennessee State, we've got a sinkhole.

 

[Dawgg]

Our ceiling at this point is 8. Our floor is 4.

Wins: Vanderbilt, Tennessee State
Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama
Swing Votes: LSU, Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss


My thinking right now is 6 wins in order of confidence from most to least:
Vanderbilt, Tennessee State, Kentucky, Arkansas or Auburn (but not both)

 

[paindonthurt_]

Its never as good as it seems and never as bad as it seems. That includes with ole miss and arkansas.

 

[FlotownDawg]

The year where Leach took off at Washington State (2015, when they won nine games and a bowl game for the first time in forever) they opened the season with a loss to Portland State. Also remember, Ole Miss’ Sugar Bowl winning team in 2015 that won at Alabama and was as high as #3 in the country, lost on the road at Memphis by two touchdowns. So let’s not jump off a cliff. Sometimes crazy losses happen. The key is to not let them affect the rest of the season.

 

[johnson86-1]

What other definition is there?

Most people that talk about ceiling have some sort of "realistic" qualifier on there. That's obviously subjective, but you don't see people at the beginning of seasons saying our floor is 0 and ceiling is 15, or even a floor of 1 and and ceiling of 11. It's some sort of subjective "if things go really well for us but still within the reasonable range of possibility" standard when they say ceiling.

 

[HumpDawgy]

Birmingham will decide what our ceiling or floor is........like always.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

The year where Leach took off at Washington State (2015, when they won nine games and a bowl game for the first time in forever) they opened the season with a loss to Portland State. Also remember, Ole Miss’ Sugar Bowl winning team in 2015 that won at Alabama and was as high as #3 in the country, lost on the road at Memphis by two touchdowns. So let’s not jump off a cliff. Sometimes crazy losses happen. The key is to not let them affect the rest of the season.

Sorry Flowtown, you are on crack now.***

The truth is that there are a group of posters on this board who desperately want us to lose because they hate Mike Leach’s style of football. It’s not the way we’ve always done it and they are just itching for it to fail so they can say, “See, you have to run the football in the ESS EEE SEE!”

Me? I don’t care how we do it. We can run the wishbone or the air raid. I’d just like to see us win and Leach is a guy who has won at situations worse than ours. So I’m willing to give him a chance.

Who knows? Maybe we’ll get better.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

The question was ceiling. So name me the team on our schedule that we absolutely cannot beat no matter what. Guaranteed loss. Other than Bama of course.

To put it another way, according to you our ceiling is 2 losses? I would bet you $10,000 right now we won’t be a 2 loss team at the end of the year. What odds do you want to give me? Same question for 3 losses? Same for 4?

 

[CadaverDawg]

So, basically we're roughly where everyone thought we would be..? I understand the frustration with the team so far under Leach, but sometimes I think we lose sight of the fact that everyone expected this team to win between 5 and 7 regular season games.

While in theory I agree with you, that was based on many people thinking we would lose to NC State. Once we beat NC State and Memphis gave up 600 yards to Arkansas St and looked like a "should win", that floor shot up a game or two in most people's minds, and rightfully so. Or at least, that's how I saw it.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Mathematically speaking, our ceiling is 11 wins and our floor is 2 wins. Regular season only, hope this helps. ***