When should the shutdown end?

[40 acres and a mule]

It has to end sometime. 15 days ends this weekend. Is it time to open things up and go back to work? The idea is out there and is being pushed by many. I say no more than a week more of this and then it should be much more targeted. If we don't go back to work, we are doing untold damage to our economy and our country.

For the record, I am in my 60's but otherwise in good health as far as I know. Ain't skeered.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

The shutdown hasn't started in most of the country...

 

[TBone.sixpack]

I think it will end sooner than many on here were projecting last week. There is no way in hell we can go into the Summer like this.

 

[johnson86-1]

It has to end sometime. 15 days ends this weekend. Is it time to open things up and go back to work? The idea is out there and is being pushed by many. I say no more than a week more of this and then it should be much more targeted. If we don't go back to work, we are doing untold damage to our economy and our country.

For the record, I am in my 60's but otherwise in good health as far as I know. Ain't skeered.

No earlier than we have testing and masks ready. I think at the end of the day it will look like we overreacted, and we don't need to do an extended shutdown, but I don't think it makes sense at this point to go back to normal without the ability to test more aggressively and at least provide PPE to healthcare workers, ideally have enough that people can wear them in crowded spaces.

 

[rockydawg1013]

The “ain’t skeered” mentality is what will ultimately kill thousands of people.

 

[EagleDawg97]

Yes, we need to be extremely careful with anyone over 65 or with severe underlying health conditions. Everyone else needs to go back to work and just continue practicing good hygiene and caution.

if anything we may have placed more exposure risk in the elderly by closing all the schools and daycares. Who do you think is keeping junior if Mom and Dad’s jobs are deemed essential?

We need to be very careful that our protective measures don’t do more damage than the virus itself. New articles every day no popping up that suggests a more targeted approach instead of cancel everything.

 

[ll Martain ll]

This is my opinion and based on gut feeling / what I’ve seen around the world:

My over/under is still Memorial Day.

I think most people will be out again in June, when sports and events can start back up, slowly getting back to “normal” in July or August, except there will be lots of business casualties that will have to rebuild.

 

[Drebin]

No earlier than we have testing and masks ready. I think at the end of the day it will look like we overreacted, and we don't need to do an extended shutdown, but I don't think it makes sense at this point to go back to normal without the ability to test more aggressively and at least provide PPE to healthcare workers, ideally have enough that people can wear them in crowded spaces.

I think this trial rollout of this anti-malaria medication in New York will tell us a lot. If they see some rapid positive results, that, along with increased testing, will expedite a return to something closer to normal.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

If this shut down goes into summer then the virus will be the least of your problems. You’ll be worrying about protecting yourself from looters and riots.

 

[PBRME]

The “ain’t skeered” mentality is what will ultimately kill thousands of people.

This. If the ain’t scared crowd gets their way the hospitals will be over capacity and turning people away within a month. Then the lockdown will become much more severe.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

The problem the world is facing is that even when a city, province, state or country gets a handle on the outbreak, once travel bans are lifted the virus will simply return. Herd immunity is 60% or greater and we seem to be months away from that. There is no good answer to that question at this time.

 

[J-Dawg]

In my opinion, I think they run it out until the first week or 2 of April for most places that aren’t hot zones such as Nola, Washington or NYC. I think the localized heavy hit areas will be under strict guidelines for longer.

With that said, my wife made a good point. It doesn’t matter if we wait a month, 6 months or a year.... as soon as everything opens back up, this thing is going to continue its course. The only way to eradicate this is to shut the whole world up in their homes with zero movement and/or develop a vaccine. We know the former ain’t happening, so we’ve got to pray for effective treatments for severe cases and a vaccine. I am betting the next few years until a vaccine is developed, that we will have many localized shuts downs periodically across the country.

Maybe just maybe people will learn to place a premium on personal hygiene and sanitation of public places after all of this. And more than anything, it will hopefully shift the mindset of the average American worker (and employer for that matter) that it’s ok to stay home for a while if sick to reduce the risk of spread. Too many idiots out there have to act tough like they are invincible and return to work the day after being diagnosed with the flu or don’t even go to doctor at all. No wonder the flu hangs around as much as it does and how fast COVID has spread.

 

[Dawg1976]

We definitely need testing kits, masks and gloves in place. And hopefully the drugs being mentioned will quickly be approved on a more widespread basis and then I think we can start getting things moving again.

 

[TNT.sixpack]

If you're under 60 and have no underlying health issues, you need to get back to work and let's get this economy working again. Let's get massive numbers of test kits ready to go to every household and get our asses back to work. If you're over 60 or have health issues, stay in quarantine for at least 60 days. Let faith groups and government deliver your food, rx to you. Ironically, my son is an SF soldier and he's been given every vaccine known to man - you name it, including malaria. He's also an ER Nurse at 3 diff hospitals. He's been exposed numerous times. Says there were a couple of times he wasn't wearing a mask due to shortages. He feels fine. There may be something to be learned there.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Real Question. What will be higher... deaths by Coronavirus or deaths by suicide over the next 6 months?

 

[00Dawg]

This is the way to go.

Honestly, it's probably closer to the way we should've gone originally with a few alterations, but I feel lucky the current generation of leadership didn't just tank everything all together (yet).

 

[horshack.sixpack]

How is that possible? I'm over a week in in Mississippi.

At the end of the day there will have to be some return to work within the next few of weeks or we run the risk of the fear of the virus being worse than the reality of the virus. Broke, depressed (add on suicidal for some), stressed and hopelessness are real problems. Usher in a fiscal depression and you can add starvation and general poor health causing deaths to that list. I'm all on board for the 2-4 week deal, but then there should be provisions to shelter in place for the most at risk, provide a way for them to get delivered goods and food safely and move on.

 

[40 acres and a mule]

The “ain’t skeered” mentality is what will ultimately kill thousands of people.

I should have also said that I am following all recommended protocols concerning isolation as well I am able. But, I don't think this shutdown of the economy can go on much longer.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Talk about tough decisions. If you run a company that provides these drugs, do you proactively ramp up production now and take on substantial inventory risk, or do you wait and see and possibly cost lives? Supply chain risk is huge with this one. I have no pharm supply chain knowledge, but raw materials, production capacity and distribution have to all be ready or it won't be easy to meet demand.

 

[57stratdawg]

Honestly, it's going to vary by region and industry.

No way I would go into a crowded movie theater any time soon.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

It ain't rocket science.... But when it is rocket science, you should listen to the rocket scientists.

 

[ezsoil]

The “ain’t skeered” mentality is what will ultimately kill thousands of people.

while put me in the the "ain't skeered" camp....we can all be sensible and protect the vulnerable and live our lives its not hard to identify the people who are dying from this disease..those who have compromised immune systems are almost exclusively the ones who are dying...every day we have to make choices that balance our quality of life vs. perceived safety. More people die in car wrecks every day than will die from this virus..car accidents are completely avoidable if we completely shut down all driving. We as a society have decided that the risk from transportation accidents is acceptable to allow for our freedom of movement. We need to take the panic and emotion out of this situation and take the steps to protect the vulnerable and the rest need to get back to living life.

 

[johnson86-1]

If you're under 60 and have no underlying health issues, you need to get back to work and let's get this economy working again. Let's get massive numbers of test kits ready to go to every household and get our asses back to work. If you're over 60 or have health issues, stay in quarantine for at least 60 days. Let faith groups and government deliver your food, rx to you. Ironically, my son is an SF soldier and he's been given every vaccine known to man - you name it, including malaria. He's also an ER Nurse at 3 diff hospitals. He's been exposed numerous times. Says there were a couple of times he wasn't wearing a mask due to shortages. He feels fine. There may be something to be learned there.

The problem isn't the workers, it's the consumers. To my knowledge, outside of entertainment/hospitality/gaming type industries, and I presumably some personal service industries like salons/spas etc., very few places have just shut down for reasons other than lack of demand.

Much of the economy can keep plugging along, except they will be hurt by the fact that a big percentage of service workers are no longer employed.

 

[PBRME]

If you're under 60 and have no underlying health issues, you need to get back to work and let's get this economy working again. Let's get massive numbers of test kits ready to go to every household and get our asses back to work. If you're over 60 or have health issues, stay in quarantine for at least 60 days. Let faith groups and government deliver your food, rx to you. Ironically, my son is an SF soldier and he's been given every vaccine known to man - you name it, including malaria. He's also an ER Nurse at 3 diff hospitals. He's been exposed numerous times. Says there were a couple of times he wasn't wearing a mask due to shortages. He feels fine. There may be something to be learned there.

Almost half the state is obese. Those people will most likely have underlying conditions caused by obesity. Add on the seniors, and non obese adults with underlying health conditions. Not much of a work force left.

 

[mstateglfr]

It has to end sometime. 15 days ends this weekend. Is it time to open things up and go back to work? The idea is out there and is being pushed by many. I say no more than a week more of this and then it should be much more targeted. If we don't go back to work, we are doing untold damage to our economy and our country.

For the record, I am in my 60's but otherwise in good health as far as I know. Ain't skeered.

Well you appear to be about as far from an expert as one can be, so forgive me if I dont give a 17 when you predict everyone goes back to work. Your 1 week prediction already sucks since most schools are shut down past that predicted date.

As for your 'aint skeered' mentality- nobody in their 60s should say that. Hell, nobody of any age should be using that for at least the last 15 years.

I do agree the economy is hurting, so you earned your econ badge for that observation. Way to go!

 

[mstateglfr]

The problem the world is facing is that even when a city, province, state or country gets a handle on the outbreak, once travel bans are lifted the virus will simply return. Herd immunity is 60% or greater and we seem to be months away from that. There is no good answer to that question at this time.

So I've read that RNA based viruses mutate faster than DNA based viruses. This is important since mutations render the herd immunity idea quite ineffective.

That just summed up my knowledge on the matter and I probably got some of it wrong. But if its accurate, then herd immunity isnt really on the table.

Calling raiderdawg!

 

[My Bru]

Well you appear to be about as far from an expert as one can be, so forgive me if I dont give a 17 when you predict everyone goes back to work. Your 1 week prediction already sucks since most schools are shut down past that predicted date.

As for your 'aint skeered' mentality- nobody in their 60s should say that. Hell, nobody of any age should be using that for at least the last 15 years.

I do agree the economy is hurting, so you earned your econ badge for that observation. Way to go!

It's not about who's the expert, it's about what's best for the most amount of people.

The sweet spot is a month in my opinion. Mid-April. Then slowly start opening back up. Beyond that the damage is too severe, and it's a parabolic curve.

In my observation, it's the 60 and older crowd who does not care at all about the virus, just going about their daily lives. Followed closely by the 23 and under crowd.

 

[EAVdog]

Part of flattening the curve was reduction in social interactions. Smaller groups, etc... We've since gone to almost zero interaction. Starting next week we (in Mississippi) should begin to open things back up slowly and be back full swing by April 17th when the schools open.

Flattening the Curve never was intended to stop all spread of the virus just to allow us time to prepare and manage. I think we're seeing that the mortality rate is not what was predicted and 9 out of 10 who get tested DO NOT have the virus. Of the ones who test positive 90% do not need hospitalization. Fear of this has gotten worse than the virus.

 

[SirBarksalot]

There’s an actual study. As J-dawg mentioned this isn’t going away till there is a vaccine, or until everyone gets it.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...B1yh5NTGy3_2q529qbRCU8gcvwJW5BSkmnh-5rp3y5A1g

 

[SirBarksalot]

India is locked down for the most part 1.3 Billion people.
It’s going to be interesting what happens there. It could be catastrophic.

 

[Hankp22]

yep

The shutdown hasn't started in most of the country...

During the press briefing yesterday, Trump mentioned returning to normal and ending the strict social distancing guidelines. Those guidelines really never started in my community. Some have been home taking this serious. Others are are treating it as a normal day.

I want it to end as soon as possible. But we need to do it right the first time.

 

[Hankp22]

The “ain’t skeered” mentality is what will ultimately kill thousands of people.

This is the most concise explanation of it I've seen yet. You're right.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

My understanding is that once a vaccine is successfully engineered and tested for the two current strains of Covid-19, the unknown variables of (x) time and efficacy of all subsequent vaccines will become quantifiable estimates instead of guesses.

 

[mstateglfr]

It's not about who's the expert, it's about what's best for the most amount of people.

The sweet spot is a month in my opinion. Mid-April. Then slowly start opening back up. Beyond that the damage is too severe, and it's a parabolic curve.

In my observation, it's the 60 and older crowd who does not care at all about the virus, just going about their daily lives. Followed closely by the 23 and under crowd.

But it is about being an expert when a prediction/claim like this is made-
I say no more than a week more of this and then it should be much more targeted.

How the 17 can anyone take someone serious who claimed they 'aint skeered' and think that person knows what is best for the most amount of people?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Wow. Where is your community?

Mine's been pretty much shut down. I go to the grocery store once a week and get a normal amount of food and that's about it.

 

[Southern Law Dawg]

During the press briefing yesterday, Trump mentioned returning to normal and ending the strict social distancing guidelines. Those guidelines really never started in my community. Some have been home taking this serious. Others are are treating it as a normal day.

I want it to end as soon as possible. But we need to do it right the first time.

This is correct.

The end date is 14 days after everyone gets their asses inside, but people still aren't getting their asses inside so 14 days hasn't started yet.

 

[J-Dawg]

In my observation, it's the 60 and older crowd who does not care at all about the virus, just going about their daily lives. Followed closely by the 23 and under crowd.

That’s been mine as well. I’m sure many elderly have the “if it’s my time to go, it’s my time to go” mindset. They most definitely exhibit less fear. There may be a lesson in there to be learned about how we react to situations.

 

[J-Dawg]

Part of flattening the curve was reduction in social interactions. Smaller groups, etc... We've since gone to almost zero interaction. Starting next week we (in Mississippi) should begin to open things back up slowly and be back full swing by April 17th when the schools open.

Flattening the Curve never was intended to stop all spread of the virus just to allow us time to prepare and manage. I think we're seeing that the mortality rate is not what was predicted and 9 out of 10 who get tested DO NOT have the virus. Of the ones who test positive 90% do not need hospitalization. Fear of this has gotten worse than the virus.

I believe in the next week or two we will see the effects of closing all mass gatherings (ie sporting events). I still think you keep huge gatherings like that shut down until summer, as they are obviously locations with higher probability of spread. But sports teams should be able to at least practice/work out once the distancing is lifted.

 

[deadheaddawg]

When is the shut down going to start?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Yep, as I posted elsewhere, that country is around 87% daily wage earners. Like get paid at the end of the day and go buy food for that 24 hour period. Roughly 13% of that population has capacity to buy any food in advance. Shelter in place will be a huge problem.