I think we can all agree this team isn't very good right now, but let's say Cal rights the ship and we gradually improve throughout the season, what's the "ceiling" for this team come March?
Now obviously due to the nature of the NCAAT pretty much any top-40 team could argue their ceiling is catching fire in a bottle and winning a title, so maybe I should clarify to this to "realistic ceiling" in order to get some decent replies.
Personally, I think this team has two fatal flaws:
1. Guard play. If it's going to change, it's gotta be Hagans as he has a much higher upside than Quickley/Green. But right now the guard play is atrocious on both sides of the ball... sure Hagans can be a pest defensively at times, but his positional sense and decision making on the defensive end are bad right now. And offensively I don't even know where to start.... I will say I've noticed Hagans turning the corner and getting to the rim just a little bit more these last couple of games so hopefully that's a glimpse of things to come. We'll need him to start getting to the rim consistently if we're going to compete against top teams.
2. Lack of length and overall athleticism. Cal's best defensive teams have all had one thing in common: length at all positions. And while Keldon is 6'6 and Hagans has length for a guard, I'm not sure we have enough length across the roster to play defense the way Calipari really wants to. Travis is short and limited athletically and PJ is 6'7". So we're decidedly undersized in the low post in particular. Think this caps the upside of this team from a defensive standpoint and that right there is a major issue considering we're far away from being an elite offensive team that can offset that.
Bottom line: Realistically, I think we could grab a 5-seed and make a run to the Sweet Sixteen, but after that it'll take a lot of luck to advance. Hope I'm wrong.