What's this team's ceiling?

TopCatCal

Heisman
Dec 10, 2012
5,483
21,435
0
IF, we can avoid being a 7,8,9, or 10 seed.so that we won't have to play any of the 1 or 2 seeds until the Sweet 16 & IF we get a few lucky bounces & IF we can avoid John Higgins we might be able to reach the Sweet 16. And finish the season with a 25 &11 type record.
 

HagginHall1999

Heisman
Oct 19, 2018
16,082
28,591
113
I think we can all agree this team isn't very good right now, but let's say Cal rights the ship and we gradually improve throughout the season, what's the "ceiling" for this team come March?

Now obviously due to the nature of the NCAAT pretty much any top-40 team could argue their ceiling is catching fire in a bottle and winning a title, so maybe I should clarify to this to "realistic ceiling" in order to get some decent replies.

Personally, I think this team has two fatal flaws:

1. Guard play. If it's going to change, it's gotta be Hagans as he has a much higher upside than Quickley/Green. But right now the guard play is atrocious on both sides of the ball... sure Hagans can be a pest defensively at times, but his positional sense and decision making on the defensive end are bad right now. And offensively I don't even know where to start.... I will say I've noticed Hagans turning the corner and getting to the rim just a little bit more these last couple of games so hopefully that's a glimpse of things to come. We'll need him to start getting to the rim consistently if we're going to compete against top teams.

2. Lack of length and overall athleticism. Cal's best defensive teams have all had one thing in common: length at all positions. And while Keldon is 6'6 and Hagans has length for a guard, I'm not sure we have enough length across the roster to play defense the way Calipari really wants to. Travis is short and limited athletically and PJ is 6'7". So we're decidedly undersized in the low post in particular. Think this caps the upside of this team from a defensive standpoint and that right there is a major issue considering we're far away from being an elite offensive team that can offset that.

Bottom line: Realistically, I think we could grab a 5-seed and make a run to the Sweet Sixteen, but after that it'll take a lot of luck to advance. Hope I'm wrong.

NCAA Championship
 

HalHR2500

All-Conference
Jan 28, 2002
2,836
4,297
113
24-12 overall record, Sweet Sixteen ceiling type team, 3rd in SEC a 5 or 6 seed
 

mg721

Senior
May 19, 2011
1,483
955
113
At the beginning of the season, it seemed we had a 9' (Pun intended) ceiling. But there appears to have been a 6' drop ceiling put in (first weekend of the tournament) on this team. Just has some mismatched parts on this team.
 

jbubb98

Senior
Mar 26, 2018
717
444
63
This team, as with every young, talented UK team has a high ceiling (or roof) and low potential floor.

Our offensive efiiciency isn't that bad, our defense is a hot mess though. Doesn't help we have had people shooting out of their minds against us (Bubba, #13 for SH, all of Duke from 3).

If they get the defense turned around (and Cal has in the past almost every time) this team has Final Four talent. Add in Herro getting his shot to fall and Hagans getting confidence to score and not just look to pass and we can beat anyone.

Devil's Advocate: keep playing like we are and NIT here we come.

My thought: we win 3 staight against Utah, UNCHeat, and Vacated Title U, and the fan base calms back down.

Just hope no one on those teams starts hitting video game 3s.
Good post, if we do win the next three games, we'll be back in the conversation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AGEE11

mg721

Senior
May 19, 2011
1,483
955
113
At the beginning of the season, it seemed we had a 9' (Pun intended) ceiling. But there appears to have been a 6' drop ceiling put in (first weekend of the tournament) on this team. Just has some mismatched parts on this team.

I want to amend my first statement. Since Quade is gone (not that he is a bad player or a bad guy) I like this team's chances better. he was never a good fit here. He gave his best, I guess, but he just didn't fit. With him out of the way, the minutes and the rotation will be a little more solid and the team can develop better.
 

Newcat38

Freshman
Sep 18, 2018
153
56
0
National Championship if players even reach 75% potentional.
Avg 6 3ptr
Continue rebounding as we have.
Keep fta and ft% as it is.
BUT something has to happen to pull this team together. Only seen individual performances.
seems like KJ pj Reid has reached the level, if we can the guards and bench of green nick baker n ej producing positively then we will have something indeed
We're not a Natty contender this year and won't be next unless we get an RJ Hampton type to run the offense. Hagans won't cut it. He's an offensive liability and not really a natural pg.
 

caneintally

Heisman
Oct 1, 2002
27,455
17,056
0
The floor of this team is a 5-6 seed IMO . Worst case scenario completely . This team is one of the 3 most talented teams 1-10 Cal has ever had . It is one of the 2 most talented teams in the land ( and easily the most talented 1-10) . The Ceiling is the a national title. Not sure how anyone can argue that. No one did before the season and the talent hasn't gone down. Losing Green IMO if anything helps as it gives the stud guards ( Herro and Quickley especially ) more time.

But IMO the ceiling is 5-6 losses and a 1/2 seed ( no difference really in those 2 seeds )

The floor is 8-9 losses and 5 seed or so. ( Like last year as the SEC is considered really good so going 11-7 in it would still warrant a high seed )

But as I say on here often Sports fan ( it isn't UK fan in particular or anything ) always thinks things are much worse then they really are. You couldn't convince some that UK is actually 8-2 and going to ranked in the top 15 today. 2-8 seems more likely to them. So there will be some who act like this is an NIT team lol.
 

Cowtown Cat

Heisman
Aug 23, 2015
24,144
54,893
100
After re-watching the Seton Hall game, we really didn't play that terribly. If Powell doesn't hit 4-5 HIGHLY contested 3's in the final minutes, we win by 10+, even if he still went 2-5. Still yet, we got a rebound up by 1 with 30 seconds left that should have sealed it and a 85% FT shooter in Hagans went 1-2 leaving to door open. It was just a fluke-ish ending that they couldn't duplicate if we played the final minutes over again 10 times. The defense realistically wasn't that bad overall minus a handful of obvious lapses that proved costly in the end.

Our 3 defense improves. Our shooters find their rhythm. We become a F4 team.
Seemed as if Powell got away with at least two or three push offs in order to create space. Maybe I'm just biased, but would swear he did. Someone help me out here. The wife has since deleted the game off the DVR.

As for the OP, I still believe the ceiling is a national title. Especially if we can shoot the 3 ball at a decent clip.
 

Newcat38

Freshman
Sep 18, 2018
153
56
0
The floor of this team is a 5-6 seed IMO . Worst case scenario completely . This team is one of the 3 most talented teams 1-10 Cal has ever had . It is one of the 2 most talented teams in the land ( and easily the most talented 1-10) . The Ceiling is the a national title. Not sure how anyone can argue that. No one did before the season and the talent hasn't gone down. Losing Green IMO if anything helps as it gives the stud guards ( Herro and Quickley especially ) more time.

But IMO the ceiling is 5-6 losses and a 1/2 seed ( no difference really in those 2 seeds )

The floor is 8-9 losses and 5 seed or so. ( Like last year as the SEC is considered really good so going 11-7 in it would still warrant a high seed )

But as I say on here often Sports fan ( it isn't UK fan in particular or anything ) always thinks things are much worse then they really are. You couldn't convince some that UK is actually 8-2 and going to ranked in the top 15 today. 2-8 seems more likely to them. So there will be some who act like this is an NIT team lol.
Not sure how anyone who actually KNOWS the game of basketball can look at this present team and think it has National Championship potential. Nope. Try again.
 

armchairpg

All-Conference
Oct 24, 2012
2,608
1,736
113
If I make a few assumptions and those come true then I think we can make it to E8 or final four.

The assumptions are:
1)Team defense will continue to improve like it usually does
2)Hagans becomes a solid PG for us by tournament time (i.e. he can get into the lane when needed and shoot barely well enough from outside to keep defenses from collapsing (see Teague)
3)no injuries
4)Camp cal give us a bump in cohesion like it does most years.
5)PJ plays to win every game.
 

JC CATS

Heisman
Jun 18, 2009
23,517
12,221
0
Haven't seen anything from Herro to suggest he's a knock down shooter. He's got a hitch in his shot and it shows out with the poor percentages he's put up. Can he correct it? Sure, but I have to see it for an extended period of time before I'm convinced he's a good shooter.
I missed the hitch, he seems to have a good shot that just isn't falling right now, but it will