What did Austin Williams say?

[dpwhite]

I started this thread just to see if it was a justified call as the RAC was starting to roar.

But.. ok

 

[fluoxetine]

When the RAC sustains 110 decibels, and gets to 120 when you sink a shot, its factor.

That's home court advantage. I've yet to see anyone deny that it exists (though people greatly exaggerate that as well).

 

[Kbee3]

Can I give a really old example? The Cubs led the National League East most of the 1969 season. The Mets rallied in September and tied the Cubs for 1st. As Jim Bouton , then pitching for Houston, commented at the time, there was no doubt which team felt better about that -- and the rest is history. Momentum may be intangible, but intangibles can be quite real.

Who was it that said that momentum was tomorrow's starting pitcher ?

 

[Retired711]

Who was it that said that momentum was tomorrow's starting pitcher ?

Earl Weaver. Of course, he had pitchers like Jim Palmer.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Momentum is mostly an illusion.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology)

When your focue is interrupted, so is your performance. Momentum can impact performance

 

[fluoxetine]

It's telling that not one you presents any data showing the impact of momentum and instead resort to Wikipedia articles on psychological concepts and anecdotes about baseball teams from 1969.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

It's telling that not one you presents any data showing the impact of momentum and instead resort to Wikipedia articles on psychological concepts and anecdotes about baseball teams from 1969.

Cheap shot. There is an entire literature, here's a review.

https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.645498/full

 

[fluoxetine]

Cheap shot. There is an entire literature, here's a review.

https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.645498/full

Maybe it was a cheap shot to call it out as a Wikipedia article, but that wasn’t my point. I wasn’t denying the existence of the flow state. There is a lot of work to do to get from there to proof of a significant impact of momentum, especially in a team sport.

Also, the people talking about baseball are giving an example of momentum that they believe has persisted across multiple days.. even for an individual a flow state is not going to last this long.

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

There are studies like these that strike down the "momentum" argument...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028585900106

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Maybe it was a cheap shot to call it out as a Wikipedia article, but that wasn’t my point. I wasn’t denying the existence of the flow state. There is a lot of work to do to get from there to proof of a significant impact of momentum, especially in a team sport.

Also, the people talking about baseball are giving an example of momentum that they believe has persisted across multiple days.. even for an individual a flow state is not going to last this long.

Let's bring it down to more specific.
Sometimes you hear folks described as unconscious in their performance. Flow . Technical foul. Conscious. End of flow

 

[fluoxetine]

Let's bring it down to more specific.
Sometimes you hear folks described as unconscious in their performance. Flow . Technical foul. Conscious. End of flow

This is not evidence of anything lol come on. You’re just describing plausible ways in which such a phenomenon could happen. You need to find some evidence of it ACTUALLY happening. And that’s more than just showing that a player’s mental state affects their performance. I’ll even grant you that sans data. You still need to show that this mental state can be predicted in some way from the game action.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

This is not evidence of anything lol come on. You’re just describing plausible ways in which such a phenomenon could happen. You need to find some evidence of it ACTUALLY happening. And that’s more than just showing that a player’s mental state affects their performance. I’ll even grant you that sans data. You still need to show that this mental state can be predicted in some way from the game action.

10-0 run, followed by 0-7 drug is pretty competing to me. And if I had the days I could show is more than random variance.

 

[fluoxetine]

10-0 run, followed by 0-7 drug is pretty competing to me. And if I had the days I could show is more than random variance.

Really, one example of back to back runs is convicing you? That's.. not really how any of this works.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Really, one example of back to back runs is convicing you? That's.. not really how any of this works.

No but there is evidence that such runs exceed normal variance. Too busy to do the work so looking to engage in a narrative way. Also the track for calling time out to break up a run

 

[fluoxetine]

No but there is evidence that such runs exceed normal variance. Too busy to do the work so looking to engage in a narrative way. Also the track for calling time out to break up a run

Is there? Virtually everything I've seen says the opposite. For example, the below:

There are studies like these that strike down the "momentum" argument...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028585900106

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Is there? Virtually everything I've seen says the opposite. For example, the below:

These articles typically look at one players performance and variance. But in team sports, the connectedness may benefit from the flow. Overall variance at a team level is a portfolio of individual players so it is less than individual variance. Hence the signal to noise ratio is higher because the noise is less.

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

Pomeroy did this article a few years ago on the topic (don't think you need a subscription to view)...

https://theathletic.com/862703/2019...entum-does-a-comeback-team-really-have-in-ot/

 

[fluoxetine]

These articles typically look at one players performance and variance. But in team sports, the connectedness may benefit from the flow. Overall variance at a team level is a portfolio of individual players so it is less than individual variance. Hence the signal to noise ratio is higher because the noise is less.

"May benefit". Sure. You said there was data.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Need a subscription to the athletic to read that article.

So where is the data/studies that PROVE it cannot be a thing in sports?

It is intuitively obvious to me that it can be a real thing. As I said earlier I'm this thread, these are not robots. Mental state can affect performance, for better or worse. A few plays in a row go your way, guys on the other team get rattled/lose focus, and bang! Momentum has changed.

Is every basketball shot an independent random variable, or do guys get hot/slump?

Was it just random luck that we played like hot trash in the last minute at Minnesota last year, or did we panic when Minnesota had the momentum going their way and hit some big shots?

 

[fluoxetine]

Was it just random luck that we played like hot trash in the last minute at Minnesota last year, or did we panic when Minnesota had the momentum going their way and hit some big shots?

Not sure luck is the right word, but yeah probably