What a way to end it!
- Thread starter patdog
- Start date
No kidding. Can’t believe they gave away the last out like that. 4 out of 5 runs with two outs, and Maineri takes the bat out of his player’s hands.
One run down in the 9th. 2 outs. He wanted Duplantis in scoring position so they wouldn't need an extra-base hit or need back-to-back hits.
I see why you would want to get a guy in scoring position but man did they go on the wrong pitch. What a miss on LSU's part.
Suck it LSU! Hail State!
I'm not convinced Maineri called for it. Either way, it's not a bad decision to try to steal a bag to get the tying run into scoring position. It just didn't work. Great throw by Skelton.
Yeah I mean there’s no question why they did it. Thing is they aren’t a running team. Duplantis was only 3-5 on the year, just a shade over 50% (and not even that anymore). That doesn’t exactly jump out as a guy you just commit to sending no matter what, unless the pitcher is completely ignoring him and letting him get a huge jump. That certainly wasn’t the case. I’ll sure take it though.
Are you serious? Next 2 batters were a combined 0-7 and Gordon was dealing, having struck out 3 of 4 batters he had faced. LSU needed Duplantis in scoring position to tie on a single while they still had a batter with an average above .300.
Do the math. Chances of a guy who is 3-5 stealing 2nd vs chances your current batter will get on and the next guy who is 0-3 and batting .157 gets a hit.
”The math” isn’t nearly as simple as you make it out to be.
What if Gordon’s next pitch (or the one after) went to the backstop?
What if Westburg got an easy grounder his way and made yet another bad throw (or dropped another pop up)?
What if the hitter drew a walk?
What if he hit a double, triple, or HR?
What if he hit a single that was misplayed and allowed the run to score?
And on, and on....
So many other options besides “hit” or “not a hit” for those next one or two batters.
But, I’m going to forget all that, and just say that on my 50” television there wasn’t even an LSU player on the screen yet when the throwdown was caught at second base.
That means the guy flat out sucks at stealing bases, and pretty much makes it a terrible decision. That seems to be the LSU fan consensus, too.
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Wow. You just don't know what you're talking about. The math is simple. You factor all of your "what if BS" into the equation and the math still favors the steal attempt. The fact he got a bad jump, went on an outside fastpitch and got caught has ZERO to do with the decision to send him.
Just why do you think we had Cole throw over to first to keep him close? Gordon was not walking batters. He was striking them out. The guy at the plate was batting .304, and is a singles hitter. Dude has had exactly 1 extra-base hit all year. The guy on deck was batting .167.
Percentages SCREAMED steal in that situation, including the fact that Duplantis was successful stealing 3 out of 5 attempts.
Just how deep are you gonna dig this hole? I'm starting to feel sorry for you.
Just why do you think we had Cole throw over to first to keep him close? Gordon was not walking batters. He was striking them out. The guy at the plate was batting .304, and is a singles hitter. Dude has had exactly 1 extra-base hit all year. The guy on deck was batting .167.
Percentages SCREAMED steal in that situation, including the fact that Duplantis was successful stealing 3 out of 5 attempts.
Just how deep are you gonna dig this hole? I'm starting to feel sorry for you.
This is how you sweep. Gotta win a gritty one. LSU on a 4 game skid. Let's make it 6 and get Paul in serious hot water with the swamp cats...can't believe I just said that, but whatevs
There are so many entertaining meltdowns in that GIF.
You’ve heard of pinch hitters, right? They could have put any LH pinch hitters up there in place of those guys. Not saying it would have made a difference, but they definitely didn’t have to commit to the guy hitting .167 or whatever.
Well, he's now 3-6. It's not a black and white situation. Why go off on someone's opinion?
Cool....let’s see those percentages for college baseball, for every situation I mentioned, plus all the other possibilities I didn’t mention. Since you seem to have them on top of your head and all....
I mean ****, we had a guy completely 17 up two routine pop-ups tonight. What does your calculator say those odds were?
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The math isn't that simple, but it still boils down to the percentage play is to steal 2nd down 1 run with 2 outs in the 9th. IF you have a good baserunner on base. Duplantis may be fast, but he doesn't appear to know how to read a pitcher and get a good jump. Still, he was 19-27 stealing last year, so it's not a terrible call. Just terrible execution.
I’m not sure why this is getting down voted. This was a classic situation to attempt to steal once there were two outs. But he probably should have done it in a different count because he made it too predictable.
Boyd hasn't updated this since 2012, but if successful stealing 2nd in that situation, you boost your chances of scoring at least 1 run to tie the game (or take the lead) from 15% to 25%. So, if your runner is greater than 60%, you're better off trying to steal the base. Duplantis was 60% on this year and 70% last year.
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So if that is to be believed, he shouldn’t have run him because he wasn’t greater than 60%. Definitely isn’t greater than 60% now.
I can definitely agree with this. Going on 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2 definitely limits the downside considerably, since the hitter is in the hole and is going to be protecting the plate. Going on 0-1 doesn’t make a lot of sense, especially given that the book on Gordon is that he will throw any of 4 pitches in any count.
This. The steal is only a bad idea because it didn't work. But it's the right thing to do once you get to two outs because you want to put yourself in a situation where the tying run is in scoring position. He just picked the wrong pitch to run on....and you have to credit Skelton for making the play. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the catcher.
But if the situations were reversed....I'd want us trying to steal second somewhere in that at bat.....trying to be aggressive and put yourselves in a position to stay in the game.
He was 60% with a sample size of 5. He was 70% with a sample size of 27 last year. He's now 22-33 over the last 2 years for 66.7%. He's not a great baserunner, but he's good enough that statistically, it's the right play. Not sure what you mean by "so if that is to be believed." It doesn't matter if you believe it or not. The statistics are facts.
Sometimes it's best to just stop posting.
I'm not a guy who goes by stats alone either, but in this case, it's a pretty standard call to try and steal.
Might as well save your breath. Go Budlaw is incapable of grasping the facts. He seems to think hindsight should factor in the pre-action decision. Of course this is impossible, but that's how shallow his thinking is. "But he's 3 of 6 now" as justification for an ignorant statement is an example.
So now you want to know the odds we'll have another case of fielders running into each other on an easy fly ball in a specific at bat? Are you serious?? What next...you gonna ask us to factor in a, "what if there were suddenly a 100 mph gust blow in at the moment we're about to make a catch"? Or, "What if, just at the moment our guy is about to make the catch, the Bluebird of Happiness flies by and craps in his eye, causing him to lose site and drop it"?
Just keep digging. Unreal.
Just keep digging. Unreal.
Laughable. So, of the pinch hitters he hadn't already used, who is going to save your awful theory? The guy batting .238 or the one batting .143? (Lest you think that choice is easy, might want to consider the one batting .238 has a much worse strikeout to bb ratio than the guy batting .143)
And let me save you another possible embarrassing, uninformed statement. Don't look at their roster and say, "Gavin Dugas. He' batting .600". That dude had surgery a month ago and can't play.
It does not matter how many others on here are willing to thumb-up your posts. They're just being equally ignorant on this subject as well. Both HC's thought stealing was a good option. Their's because they tried it. Ours because we threw over to keep him close or catch him going.
Keep digging.
And let me save you another possible embarrassing, uninformed statement. Don't look at their roster and say, "Gavin Dugas. He' batting .600". That dude had surgery a month ago and can't play.
It does not matter how many others on here are willing to thumb-up your posts. They're just being equally ignorant on this subject as well. Both HC's thought stealing was a good option. Their's because they tried it. Ours because we threw over to keep him close or catch him going.
Keep digging.
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The part being left out is this, Gordon isn't quick to the plate and skelton doesn't have the greatest pop time. We threw him out, but w all the info there, it was a good call on LSU's part, just a bad result.
Were they gonna use some new NCAA rule that allows them to add more players to the roster during the game? Maybe pull somebody from the stands? I ask because they had already used every available LH hitter on their roster.
Just stop, man. You are so wrong and so uninformed it's making you look foolish. Sometimes it's just best to recognize you are wrong and stop beating that dead horse.
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And Pat, those are based on averages. When you have a batter on deck with a below average batting average, and a lack of quality PH's available, the numbers would suggest stealing even more. It's a bell curve, no doubt.
Poor wording on the “to be believed” part. I just think you have to be careful when painting with too broad of strokes with statistics. The sample size may only be 5, but that’s still this year’s data, not last year’s, which I would think should be weighted more heavily. Who knows what could have changed from last year? He could be 10 lbs heavier and a step slower on the bases. He could be playing with a nagging injury currently that slows him down. Also, who was he running against last year? Is he getting those SB’s against the Grambling’s and SE Louisiana’s in the midweek games, or doing most of it against SEC pitching? Can he get there on fastballs, or is he only good on breaking balls? One thing that LSU fans who have been watching him his whole career said was that Duplantis has been terrible at getting jumps and stealing bases for 4 years, and the result wasn’t at all surprising. I don’t think they’d be saying that about a career 70% base stealer if he didn’t have a tendency to get thrown out in some big spots (conference games, with equal competition).
The overall point is that college baseball is especially precarious for diving too deep into the sabremetrics realm, because the level of competition varies so widely and the general skill level across the board isn’t nearly as good as MLB, and that affects the statistics because the total number of statistcallly possible outcomes is so much larger. Baseball is and always has been a situational game. The statistics should be used as a tool, but not the sole deciding factor for any decision. The situation last night was that we had thrown over 2 or 3 times to hold the runner and immediately before the steal (not ignoring him and not allowing any sort of big lead), we had a pitcher who throws any pitch in any count, and the count was still fairly neutral for the hitter to possibly get a pitch to hit. That, in my mind, makes it a bad situational play to run at that time in that count. With another strike on him and 3 of 4 hitters K’d, I think it makes more sense.
I do agree on this part. I haven't been watching him his whole career, but he was thrown out so easily, I thought he should have tried to get into a rundown instead of just run into the tag like he did. Fast runner, but not a great baserunner. Even at 70% last year, that's not a particularly good percentage for such a fast runner.
It never gets old. Too bad it got buried under a statistics slapfest thread highjack.
You also had a TON of LSU fans on that board claiming stealing in that situation is just wrong, period. Lot of uninformed folks over there. Using them in an attempt to add credence is a mistake.
C'mon, man. Don't you see the entertainment value? It's a spirited debate and it is tied to the topic, not a hijack. I think it's fun.
If he had been safe, and then came home to score on a single, they would have all been talking about Mieneri's "girodos" instead.
You have to try to steal a base there. You just must. That he got thrown out doesn't make it a bad call. Maybe he should have gone on a different pitch.
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