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Week 1 Gambling thread.

R

RPOdawg

Guest
Who do y’all like this week? Some lines that jump out to me are

Georgia -21
Bama -35
Memphis -5.5
Georgia tech +36.5
Mississippi State -21
Auburn -3.5
 
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B

biodawg

Senior
Mar 3, 2008
626
535
93
I really like Notre Dame (-20), Oklahoma State (-14.5) and under 74. I also like Purdue @ Nevada under 58.5

I also like Georgia at (-21) too, but if I was forced to pic the Oregon-Auburn game, I’d go with Oregon. Not gonna touch that one, though, as well as the OM game.
 
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BIGDAWG44

Senior
Aug 22, 2012
650
518
93
RPOdawg said:
Who do y’all like this week? Some lines that jump out to me are

Georgia -21
Bama -35
Memphis -5.5
Georgia tech +36.5
Mississippi State -21
Auburn -3.5
Click to expand...

I like:
West Virginia -7 James Madison
Syracuse -17 liberty
New Mexico State +35 wazzu
Ohio state -24 fau
 
C

Cap'n Geech

Redshirt
Aug 15, 2018
613
0
0
I look for value in the moneylines:
Wake Forest -170
UCLA +145 (L)
Mississippi +175
Coastal Carolina +180
Hawaii +300 (W)
Nevada +300
Colorado State +390
South Florida +400
Oregon State +495
Vanderbilt +900

And before y'all yell at me for betting on Vandy: At +900 the implied probability is 10%. I bet six games at +300 (IP 25%) or better. I only have to hit a couple of these to be in the black. I've already hit one (Hawaii).
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,083
26,683
113
I think Vandy's probability of winning that game is less than 10%.
 
M

msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
Cap'n Geech said:
I look for value in the moneylines:
Wake Forest -170
UCLA +145
Mississippi +175
Coastal Carolina +180
Hawaii +300 (W)
Nevada +300
Colorado State +390
South Florida +400
Oregon State +495
Vanderbilt +900

And before y'all yell at me for betting on Vandy: At +900 the implied probability is 10%. I bet six games at +300 (IP 25%) or better. I only have to hit a couple of these to be in the black. I've already hit one (Hawaii).
Click to expand...

UCLA and OM are good bets. Vandy is throwing money away
 
H

hullabaloodog

Redshirt
Jul 10, 2008
1,238
0
0
I love some moneyline values as well.
Nevada +300
Fresno St +410
UMass +500
Utah St. +150

Also, these O/U:
Cincy/UCLA UNDER 60
Syracuse/Liberty OVER 66
Nevada/Purde OVER 58
 
TheStateUofMS

TheStateUofMS

All-Conference
Dec 26, 2009
10,311
2,346
113
Cap'n Geech said:
I look for value in the moneylines:
Wake Forest -170
UCLA +145
Mississippi +175
Coastal Carolina +180
Hawaii +300 (W)
Nevada +300
Colorado State +390
South Florida +400
Oregon State +495
Vanderbilt +900

And before y'all yell at me for betting on Vandy: At +900 the implied probability is 10%. I bet six games at +300 (IP 25%) or better. I only have to hit a couple of these to be in the black. I've already hit one (Hawaii).
Click to expand...


I like your picks. You did really well last year.
 
dorndawg

dorndawg

All-American
Sep 10, 2012
8,774
9,463
113
There's one absolute truth in gambling, and looks like you're about to learn it: NEVER bet for or against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Lord knows I learned it the hard way.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
14,373
4,875
113
I like OM. If (1) Memphis beats Ole Miss by six or more and I lose a little bit of money or (2) Ole Miss wins and I win a little bit of money, both situations seem ok to me. But then there is the possibility that Memphis wins but doesn't cover, in which case I win money and get to enjoy Ole Miss losing to Memphis. So it's basically a win or break even bet.
 
C

CadaverDawg

Redshirt
Dec 5, 2011
6,409
0
0
Is Freeze coaching game 1, or is he still recovering? Either way, is it super far fetched to think his air raid couldn't upset Syracuse week 1? I don't know a damn thing about Liberty, but at +675 on the money line I'm tempted. Thoughts?
 
C

Cap'n Geech

Redshirt
Aug 15, 2018
613
0
0
I like Liberty +675 at home. If I had not already made my 10 bets for the week, I'd consider betting that.
 
R

RPOdawg

Guest
I teased the Georgia (-21) and bama (-35) games down 7 points to

Georgia (-14) and bama (-28).
 
C

campshelbydog842003

Redshirt
Sep 25, 2013
1,627
0
0
dorndawg said:
There's one absolute truth in gambling, and looks like you're about to learn it: NEVER bet for or against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Lord knows I learned it the hard way.
Click to expand...

This is an all time bad take that fans of every team make about their own team. You should know your own team better than any other team in the country and if you can look at things objectively you should be able to bet for or against your team better than the average fan. State does not burn people ats any more than any other team.
 
jethreauxdawg

jethreauxdawg

Heisman
Dec 20, 2010
10,845
14,306
113
How does this work?

RPOdawg said:
I teased the Georgia (-21) and bama (-35) games down 7 points to

Georgia (-14) and bama (-28).
Click to expand...

On a hundred dollar bet, what does it cost to tease the line down by a touchdown? Does it vary by game?
 
C

Cap'n Geech

Redshirt
Aug 15, 2018
613
0
0
Let's test this.

SEC teams winning % ATS since 2012 (expansion):
Vanderbilt-55.2%
Mississippi State-54.9%
Missouri-53.9%
South Carolina-53.4%
Georgia-53.2%
LSU-50.6%
Alabama-50.5%
Ole Miss-50.0%
Auburn-49.5%
Florida-48.9%
Texas A&M-48.4%
Arkansas-46.4%
Tennessee-43.7%
Kentucky-39.1%
 
S

sandwolf.sixpack

Junior
Feb 19, 2013
1,247
377
83
Cap'n Geech said:
I look for value in the moneylines:
Wake Forest -170
UCLA +145
Mississippi +175
Coastal Carolina +180
Hawaii +300 (W)
Nevada +300
Colorado State +390
South Florida +400
Oregon State +495
Vanderbilt +900

And before y'all yell at me for betting on Vandy: At +900 the implied probability is 10%. I bet six games at +300 (IP 25%) or better. I only have to hit a couple of these to be in the black. I've already hit one (Hawaii).
Click to expand...

Do you keep track of your record for each year? From what I remember, seems like you consistently did really well. I'd be interested to know what your overall record/return was last year.
 
R

RPOdawg

Guest
jethreauxdawg said:
On a hundred dollar bet, what does it cost to tease the line down by a touchdown? Does it vary by game?
Click to expand...

It was -120 to tease them both down. I put 200 on it to win 166. All teasers are -120 with who I bet with.
 
M

MSU601Dawg

All-Conference
Nov 17, 2002
2,560
3,967
81
Vegas makes a killing the first couple of weeks when no one knows how good anyone's going to be. General public predominantly best favorites, and week 1 has a lot of lopsided favorites, which are risky bets. Wise betters seem to bet on dogs a lot

I think Ole Miss and Oregon (and maybe Boise) are great Moneyline values, I think they've all got a great shot to win while being 6/7 point dogs.

With teasers, you can usually move the line by 10 points and get close to a 1:1 bet (you just have to hit 3 games). To move the line 6 points, you have to include 2 games to get a 1:1 payout

The other unorthodox thing I like to do (especially in week 1) is to play Moneyline parlays. What I usually try to do is pick 10-15 HUGE favorites (15-50 point favorites). The payout varies depending on how big of favorites you bet obviously (and how many games), but the idea is to stick 10-15 no brainer games in there that you know who's going to win
 
N

Nunya.sixpack

Redshirt
Jun 10, 2019
3,175
0
0
campshelbydog842003 said:
Which means you should be making a killing betting against them, DUMBASS. If a team is really good or really bad ATS, that is a good thing in the gambling world.
Click to expand...

Was it 99 that anytime you saw us, we never covered the spread when favored and always busted the spread when against?
 
dorndawg

dorndawg

All-American
Sep 10, 2012
8,774
9,463
113
You may wanna sit a couple plays out and learn a little about how things work around here. And while you're doing that, learn how to reply correctly.
 
Duggar Hall Desk

Duggar Hall Desk

All-Conference
Mar 2, 2008
1,390
1,048
113
Cap'n Geech said:
I look for value in the moneylines:
Wake Forest -170
Vanderbilt +900

And before y'all yell at me for betting on Vandy: At +900 the implied probability is 10%. I bet six games at +300 (IP 25%) or better. I only have to hit a couple of these to be in the black. I've already hit one (Hawaii).
Click to expand...

I'd be more afraid of betting on Wake Forest at -170, even against Utah State.
 
dorndawg

dorndawg

All-American
Sep 10, 2012
8,774
9,463
113
CONGRATS on learning how to reply! While I am flattered by the offer, just not something I'm in to.

 
o_dawgnabit

o_dawgnabit

All-American
Oct 13, 2016
4,526
6,488
113
My book has a MSU total at 40.5 and that to me looks easy. Our offense should get that
 
TheStateUofMS

TheStateUofMS

All-Conference
Dec 26, 2009
10,311
2,346
113
Utah -6.5 @ BYU last night WIN

So far...
Wisc -11 @ USF 8/30 WIN
CU v CSU OVER 82.5 (live line bet) 8/30 WIN
MSU -19 v ULL 8/31 12pm et
Memphis -4.5 v Ole Miss 8/31 12pm et
ECU +17.5 @ NCST 8/31 12pm et

4 team par lay (all noon et kick offs)
Ohio St -29 v FAU
MSU -19 v ULL
Memphis -3.5 v OM
Kentucky -10 v Toledo
 
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Jwsjr

Redshirt
Oct 8, 2013
147
7
18
Ozarka'sIllegitimate said:
Vegas makes a killing the first couple of weeks when no one knows how good anyone's going to be. General public predominantly best favorites, and week 1 has a lot of lopsided favorites, which are risky bets. Wise betters seem to bet on dogs a lot

I think Ole Miss and Oregon (and maybe Boise) are great Moneyline values, I think they've all got a great shot to win while being 6/7 point dogs.

With teasers, you can usually move the line by 10 points and get close to a 1:1 bet (you just have to hit 3 games). To move the line 6 points, you have to include 2 games to get a 1:1 payout

The other unorthodox thing I like to do (especially in week 1) is to play Moneyline parlays. What I usually try to do is pick 10-15 HUGE favorites (15-50 point favorites). The payout varies depending on how big of favorites you bet obviously (and how many games), but the idea is to stick 10-15 no brainer games in there that you know who's going to win
Click to expand...

I’ve been doing the big fav ML pars for 3 years now. Have not had a down year. I boost the odds by picking 2 line games early in the par. I also leave several open spots at the end and if your par has amounted to a decent anoint of money you can hedge your bet.
 
T

tatedog

Redshirt
Mar 28, 2015
8,739
0
0
campshelbydog842003 said:
This is an all time bad take that fans of every team make about their own team. You should know your own team better than any other team in the country and if you can look at things objectively you should be able to bet for or against your team better than the average fan. State does not burn people ats any more than any other team.
Click to expand...

In purely mathematical principle I agree with you. However, there is another reason people are prone to bet against their own team more readily in some cases. If you lose, you get some emotional equity in your team doing better than you expected. The emotional hit of your team losing is somewhat offset by your personal satisfaction of being "right" and collecting money. It' s basically an emotional hedge. I don't mind it because the reality is a very, very small % of gamblers come out ahead regardless of betting methodology, so might as well just have fun with it.
 
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