We will get our first win tomorrow. I guarantee it. Why?

[Biggesthuskerfan]

Simply because we are due. No complicated statistics or science here.

There has been too many close games that we have lost that could of or should have been wins and the law of averages just points to a win.

We are more talented than Minnesota, it’s a home game, and we have basically shot ourselves in the foot time and time again. No team continues
to lose close games time and time again. 1.7% chance for Northwestern to score on that drive, or whatever it was. That’s just bad luck. I know struggling teams find a way to lose close games, but come on.

Can’t see that continuing tomorrow, so I’m basically guaranteeing a win.

 

[cubsker_rivals142943]

Due isn't a thing

 

[Biggesthuskerfan]

Due isn't a thing

Oh yeah. Let’s see. It’s not like this is some high school team playing Alabama. When teams are fairly evenly matched, “due” IS a thing. Sometimes you just lose games by bad luck. Do you think if that drive that Northwestern scores on at the end is replayed 100 times, that they score all 100 times? No. Why? Because sometimes you catch a break. A guy fumbles, QB throws an INT, or a receiver drops a pass.

Is the “It” factor a thing? Yet we talk about it all the time

Teams don’t continue to lose close games unless they just quit. If you keep fighting, breaks start going your way.

 

[BigTal]

Seems like I read this post last Friday ad well.

 

[Huskerfan2112]

I have been wondering.

Will it be harder for the team to learn how to win again ir the fans to accept winning again when it starts to happen.

 

[Biggesthuskerfan]

Winning is contagious to a team. It brings about camaraderie, better attitudes and hope in this case. A new era for a coach and team starting. 0-6. A ray of light that can only get bigger. The next step in Frost era really starts with a win.

Not sure what you mean about the fans being able to handle or accept winning. Why wouldn’t they?

I fully expect a win today. I would be very very surprised if we lost.

 

[huskerssalts]

Simply because we are due. No complicated statistics or science here.

There has been too many close games that we have lost that could of or should have been wins and the law of averages just points to a win.

We are more talented than Minnesota, it’s a home game, and we have basically shot ourselves in the foot time and time again. No team continues
to lose close games time and time again. 1.7% chance for Northwestern to score on that drive, or whatever it was. That’s just bad luck. I know struggling teams find a way to lose close games, but come on.

Can’t see that continuing tomorrow, so I’m basically guaranteeing a win.

I’m definitely with you here. Outside our DBs choking bad the last few drives against NW our Huskers appeared to have turned the corner this past week. I do not see Minnesota passing all over us (which helps us a lot since our biggest weakness is our DBs and pass rush). If our run defense holds up strong all game, we can and should beat Minnesota. But we will see. I foresee our offense taking another step forward with Martinez, Oz and M Washington in the back field. Those three are getting it going. And I love seeing JD Speilman being on fire. Dudes electric. I see a “WIN” coming tomorrow. GBR

 

[huskerssalts]

Seems like I read this post last Friday ad well.

So what...hey if someone keeps posting it every week, sooner or later it’s going to be right

 

[Biggesthuskerfan]

I’m simply saying that there are a certain amount of random good and bad breaks that occur in a game. A player falling down, a bad call, a freak injury to a key player, a dropped pass, a dropped INT., etc.

Good teams tend to be on the right side of these breaks and make their own breaks, but......

We have been disproportionately freaking super unlucky. Almost cursed.

That won’t continue. Law of averages.
I’ll come back to eat crow if I’m wrong.

GBR!

 

[Lolatnebby]

Winning is contagious to a team. It brings about camaraderie, better attitudes and hope in this case. A new era for a coach and team starting. 0-6. A ray of light that can only get bigger. The next step in Frost era really starts with a win.

Not sure what you mean about the fans being able to handle or accept winning. Why wouldn’t they?

I fully expect a win today. I would be very very surprised if we lost.

Lol prepare to be triggered today

 

[Headcard]

Winning is contagious to a team. It brings about camaraderie, better attitudes and hope in this case. A new era for a coach and team starting. 0-6. A ray of light that can only get bigger. The next step in Frost era really starts with a win.

Not sure what you mean about the fans being able to handle or accept winning. Why wouldn’t they?

I fully expect a win today. I would be very very surprised if we lost.

Yep football seasons take on a life of their own. We have seen winning become contagious over and over, look at PSU when they won the B1G, early they were bad took a miracle to beat Pitt, but as they won more and more they believed and played with confidence, same thing with Iowa when they went 12-2. It’s why Snyder always scheduled all those cupcakes early. I really believe that if we hadn’t had the Akron game cancelled and/or pissed away the CU game, things would have been very different for this team.

 

[otismotis08]

Due isn't a thing

You couldn't be more wrong. Flip a coin a million times, it will come out 50% heads, 50% tails. We are due and the stats will bear it out. Not necessarily today, but eventually.

 

[cecilB]

Simply because we are due. No complicated statistics or science here.

There has been too many close games that we have lost that could of or should have been wins and the law of averages just points to a win.

We are more talented than Minnesota, it’s a home game, and we have basically shot ourselves in the foot time and time again. No team continues
to lose close games time and time again. 1.7% chance for Northwestern to score on that drive, or whatever it was. That’s just bad luck. I know struggling teams find a way to lose close games, but come on.

Can’t see that continuing tomorrow, so I’m basically guaranteeing a win.

It’s going to Nebraska’s day. However, what are your reasons for stating Nebraska has more talent?

If we combined rosters, which one has more starting ? 50/50 at best

 

[cecilB]

I’m simply saying that there are a certain amount of random good and bad breaks that occur in a game. A player falling down, a bad call, a freak injury to a key player, a dropped pass, a dropped INT., etc.

Good teams tend to be on the right side of these breaks and make their own breaks, but......

We have been disproportionately freaking super unlucky. Almost cursed.

That won’t continue. Law of averages.
I’ll come back to eat crow if I’m wrong.

GBR!

Outside of Mother Nature preventing Akron, where would you say we’ve been unlucky

 

[bloodredd]

Love it when fans guarantee things they have no control over. Guess some folks just gotta blow hot air to feel important.

 

[janne]

You couldn't be more wrong. Flip a coin a million times, it will come out 50% heads, 50% tails. We are due and the stats will bear it out. Not necessarily today, but eventually.

True, but let's assume that you flip a coin and get tails 6 times in a row, your odds of getting heads on the 7th toss is still 50%.

 

[TarheelHuskerFan_rivals]

We get a win today and husker fans will complain because it’s minnesota. If we lose, they’ll say fire frost.
Can’t win. Gotta start somewhere

 

[cubsker_rivals142943]

You couldn't be more wrong. Flip a coin a million times, it will come out 50% heads, 50% tails. We are due and the stats will bear it out. Not necessarily today, but eventually.

Flip a coin and wait for heads to come up 3 times in a row. Then flip it again. Head and tails will still come up 50 percent of the time on that 4th throw. I cant believe this even needs to be explained.

 

[hddude55]

Reading this thread I’d think we have good talent and coaching but terrible luck. I guess we have been very unlucky for most of this century.

As for today, 0-7 or 1-6, whoopee, I’m stoked. GO BIG splatttt.

 

[SoFL Husker]

I am only 0-2 on the Huskers betting this year, so first off, that's not so bad.

Betting them to cover, hopefully 1-2 after today. GBR

 

[Husker4real_rivals373787]

I think NU gets their first win next week. Not today. My spirit was broken last week. I just can't see this team overcoming their proclivity to make ridiculous, yet catastrophic, mistakes. Opponents could punt on every play and this Nebraska team would find a way to lose. I'm sure it won't be that way forever, but that's the way I feel today.

This season is really happening.

 

[NikkiSixx_rivals269993]

Flip a coin and wait for heads to come up 3 times in a row. Then flip it again. Head and tails will still come up 50 percent of the time on that 4th throw. I cant believe this even needs to be explained.

There is always a reversion to the mean. The odds of that 4th throw may still be 50/50, but only when your time period or number of attempts is 1. The odds of coming up with tails 3 times in a row as a reversion to the mean actually increase with a longer time period/larger N size.

 

[NikkiSixx_rivals269993]

You couldn't be more wrong. Flip a coin a million times, it will come out 50% heads, 50% tails. We are due and the stats will bear it out. Not necessarily today, but eventually.

You are correct about the coin, because each side has an equal amount of chance. Playing a football game is not about chance though.. yes there are two probable outcomes, but the probability of each one occurring are not equal.

 

[janne]

There is always a reversion to the mean. The odds of that 4th throw may still be 50/50, but only when your time period or number of attempts is 1. The odds of coming up with tails 3 times in a row as a reversion to the mean actually increase with a longer time period/larger N size.

Are you saying that if you just got 3 heads in a row, your odds of seeing 3 tails in a row are increased? Or, for that matter, that any odds going forward are in any way dependent on the history of previous flips? If so, that's simply incorrect.

 

[HawkeyeinOmaha_rivals]

You couldn't be more wrong. Flip a coin a million times, it will come out 50% heads, 50% tails. We are due and the stats will bear it out. Not necessarily today, but eventually.

Tell that to Northwestern after they lost to Iowa 21 times in a row.

 

[HuskerBorn]

Yep. I'm on board. We gone win today and win big baby! Revenge for last year

 

[NikkiSixx_rivals269993]

Are you saying that if you just got 3 heads in a row, your odds of seeing 3 tails in a row are increased? Or, for that matter, that any odds going forward are in any way dependent on the history of previous flips? If so, that's simply incorrect.

I beg to differ. With a large N size, it always reverts to 50/50. If you get 3 heads in a row on an N size of 1000, chances are that you will receive 3 tails in a row to balance that out.
You're confusing things here because you are taking something with an N size > 1 and comparing it to a situation where N = 1, and therein lies the inequality.

 

[hddude55]

I beg to differ. With a large N size, it always reverts to 50/50. If you get 3 heads in a row on an N size of 1000, chances are that you will receive 3 tails in a row to balance that out.
You're confusing things here because you are taking something with an N size > 1 and comparing it to a situation where N = 1, and therein lies the inequality.

Time for you to do a retake on that statistics class. Obviously too much sleeping through the lectures the first time. Each flip is 50-50 even if previous 100 were all heads.

 

[NikkiSixx_rivals269993]

Time for you to do a retake on that statistics class. Obviously too much sleeping through the lectures the first time. Each flip is 50-50 even if previous 100 were all heads.

When you're looking at a single instance, it is always 50/50
When you're looking at a large sample size, it there will always be reversion to the mean of 50/50.

People love to start out with this word problem I got X amount of heads in a row type of situation, where by the sample size is already set to greater than 1.

Then they love to change the equation by saying the next flip is 50/50, which is technically true, however you just changed the focus of the equation from a large sample to a singular event.

It is like changing an equation mid proof.

If you have a sample size of 1000, and you're on flip 475 and heads are winning by 52% to 48% tails, the probability is that the next 525 flips will return a heads of 48% and tails 52% thus bringing the entire sample size into balance because we are looking at the entire sample, not a singular event within that sample.

 

[cubsker_rivals142943]

Are you saying that if you just got 3 heads in a row, your odds of seeing 3 tails in a row are increased? Or, for that matter, that any odds going forward are in any way dependent on the history of previous flips? If so, that's simply incorrect.

Are you sure the coin doesn't remember what it did before?

 

[cubsker_rivals142943]

If you have a sample size of 1000, and you're on flip 475 and heads are winning by 52% to 48% tails, the probability is that the next 525 flips will return a heads of 48% and tails 52% thus bringing the entire sample size into balance because we are looking at the entire sample, not a singular event within that sample.

Jesus Christ, no.

 

[NikkiSixx_rivals269993]

Jesus Christ, no.

no reason to break a commandment over it, and the coin doesn't have to know anything about it's previous history, because by design, it will always revert to the mean.

 

[oldjar07]

Why do good teams always seem to pull out wins and bad teams always find a way to lose? I don't think it's an accident.

 

[F5Tornado]

Only thing that is due is the game is due to start this afternoon. If Nebraska wins, that will be a bonus.

 

[otismotis08]

no reason to break a commandment over it, and the coin doesn't have to know anything about it's previous history, because by design, it will always revert to the mean.

Some people just won't ever get it.

 

[bloodredd]

Wow, some SERIOUS dumb in this thread.

 

[cubsker_rivals142943]

Some people just won't ever get it.

you are among them.

 

[otismotis08]

you are among them.

Sorry. My statistics courses tell me otherwise.

 

[cubsker_rivals142943]

your statistics course tells you that previous results can change future results? no, it doesn't. every toss is 50/50, it does not matter if the previous 100 tosses were tails, the odds are still the same of all future tosses. this isn't hard at all. the coin has no memory. the roulette ball has no memory. if what you were saying was true, we could all just sit at roulette tables wait for 55 percent blacks and then just start betting red because we would know red is due. it does not work, it will not work, and anyone arguing otherwise certainly does not understand statistics.

 

[huskerssalts]

Love it when fans guarantee things they have no control over. Guess some folks just gotta blow hot air to feel important.

Yep that’s what it is, that’s all the OP was after. He just wants to feel important. I disagree, the OP is like me, sees some progress and sees a team starting to turn the corner and feels good about the Minnesota game. I won’t guarantee a win but I feel we will win.