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We will finish 4th if.......

2

216 Row E

Senior
Jan 21, 2004
693
603
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We win our last 2 games (12-8) and
Iowa beats Michigan and loses to Illinois (12-8) and
Michigan St beats both Ohio St and Maryland (12-8) and
Michigan loses to Iowa and beats Ohio St (11-9) and
Ohio St loses to both Michigan and Michigan St (11-9)

All these results seem realistic.
 
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rubigtimenow

All-Conference
Mar 4, 2015
2,257
2,915
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I actually think it is:
- We win next 2
- Iowa loses 1 game
- OSU loses 1 game
This is Very possible IF we beat Indiana.

We have tie breaker over Iowa, OSU, MSU, and Michigan.
The first 3 because of tiebreaker #1, head to head. we are 1-0 vs all 3.
We also have it over Michigan by virtue of 2nd tiebreaker which is record against #1 seed, if tied #2 seed. Etc. Michigan is 0-1 v Wisky and 0-2 v Illinois.
Somebody correct me where I’m mistaken.
 
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RUtrumpet92_rivals498139

All-American
Feb 5, 2003
10,971
9,373
113
rubigtimenow said:
I actually think it is:
- We win next 2
- Iowa loses 1 game
- OSU loses 1 game
This is Very possible IF we beat Indiana.

We have tie breaker over Iowa, OSU, MSU, and Michigan.
The first 3 because of tiebreaker #1, head to head. we are 1-0 vs all 3.
We also have it over Michigan by virtue of 2nd tiebreaker which is record against #1 seed, if tied #2 seed. Etc. Michigan is 0-1 v Wisky and 0-2 v Illinois.
Somebody correct me where I’m mistaken.
Click to expand...
You are correct. If we win the next two and Iowa and Ohio State both lose one more, we will be the 4 seed. Anyone can play around with different results here.

B1G seeding projector
 
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wicker

Senior
Jan 29, 2002
29,914
947
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Even if you were to get all ten results to have a ridiculously high probability of 80% each, the chance of going ten for ten is 10.7%

At 50% each, the probability becomes 9 in 10,000
 
fatsam98

fatsam98

Heisman
Mar 23, 2005
43,423
37,941
113
erdelyaj said:
I almost think at this point it’s better to NOT get the double bye so we have a more winnable neutral site game in the B1G tournament
Click to expand...
Yeah I go back and forth too. One advantage of getting 4th is we'll be rested and whoever we're playing has either played the night before or two nights in a row
 
P

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,307
12,628
78
Really doesn’t matter. Like not at all.

Some of you really aren’t grasping how hard tonight’s game is. In true road environments (not counting last year) - how many BIG games have we ever won against teams not named Nebraska? This is senior night in a hostile environment going up against another team playing for extremely high stakes. A massive challenge. The last thing to be thinking about are sim scenarios that pre-assume we pull this off. Oh yeah -2 years ago at Mackey was hardly like this. So get that out of your head too. That Purdue team was an extreme long shot to make the field. They needed a deep tourney run to even be in the discussion. Indiana all but clinches a bid with a win tonight.
 
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rubigtimenow

All-Conference
Mar 4, 2015
2,257
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PSAL_Hoops said:
Really doesn’t matter. Like not at all.

Some of you really aren’t grasping how hard tonight’s game is. In true road environments (not counting last year) - how many BIG games have we ever won against teams not named Nebraska? This is senior night in a hostile environment going up against another team playing for extremely high stakes. A massive challenge. The last thing to be thinking about are sim scenarios that pre-assume we pull this off. Oh yeah -2 years ago at Mackey was hardly like this. So get that out of your head too. That Purdue team was an extreme long shot to make the field. They needed a deep tourney run to even be in the discussion. Indiana all but clinches a bid with a win tonight.
Click to expand...
Nobody pre-assuming anything.
Tonight will be a dog fight. (Or as the broadcasters Will undoubtedly say more than once, a rock fight).
Very difficult road game that is essentially a bubble elimination game.
But a message board post about the possibility of a top four seed is a legit topic to discuss even before tonight’s game.
 
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gregkoko

All-Conference
Sep 22, 2016
1,646
3,218
113
PSAL_Hoops said:
Really doesn’t matter. Like not at all.

Some of you really aren’t grasping how hard tonight’s game is. In true road environments (not counting last year) - how many BIG games have we ever won against teams not named Nebraska? This is senior night in a hostile environment going up against another team playing for extremely high stakes. A massive challenge. The last thing to be thinking about are sim scenarios that pre-assume we pull this off. Oh yeah -2 years ago at Mackey was hardly like this. So get that out of your head too. That Purdue team was an extreme long shot to make the field. They needed a deep tourney run to even be in the discussion. Indiana all but clinches a bid with a win tonight.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin a few weeks ago
 
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motorb54

All-Conference
Dec 22, 2005
10,065
4,437
113
When determining seeds isn't a pod is created with all teams with the same record?
Record in that pod then determines seed? If tied in the pod then record against #1 team, then #2...etc... until a tie break?
11-7 Ohio State has Mich. St. and Michigan
11-7 Iowa has @Michigan and @Illinois
10-8 Rutgers has @Indiana and Penn St.
10-8 Michigan State has @Ohio State and Maryland
10-8 Michigan has Iowa and @ Ohio State
9-9 Indiana Has Rutgers and Purdue
Too many possibilities but multiple teams being tied is expected at this point.
Could be for 4th or 5th.
Rutgers sits well in tie breakers and will be in great shape if beats Indiana.
Rutgers is 1-1 or 1-0 against all the other teams
 
R

RUtrumpet92_rivals498139

All-American
Feb 5, 2003
10,971
9,373
113
motorb, yes, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head vs all teams in a tie in the standings. You are correct, we are in great shape in those scenarios for once.

1-0 vs Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa
1-1 vs Michigan

If we beat Indiana, we cannot finish tied with them regardless. If we go 1-1 and they manage to beat Purdue, things can get messy.

It is crazy that with two games to play, we can finish anywhere from 4th to 9th.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,307
12,628
78
gregkoko said:
Wisconsin a few weeks ago
Click to expand...
Yes - that game, the win at Mackey, Maryland, and I think maybe a road win once at Iowa? Would have to look back but that might be it (4 total non-Nebraska road wins) throughout Pike’s RU tenure. It’s not a big number.

Winning that Wisconsin game involved us shooting lights out - over 58% from 3 and going 16-18 from charity. Wisconsin was also 52% from charity in that game and 21% from 3.
 
P

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,307
12,628
78
rubigtimenow said:
Nobody pre-assuming anything.
Tonight will be a dog fight. (Or as the broadcasters Will undoubtedly say more than once, a rock fight).
Very difficult road game that is essentially a bubble elimination game.
But a message board post about the possibility of a top four seed is a legit topic to discuss even before tonight’s game.
Click to expand...
It’s not that it’s not out there as a possibility it just feels like the least of our concern one way or the other right now.
 
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ScarletDave

ScarletDave

Heisman
Oct 7, 2010
34,597
15,352
85
Rutgers winning in Assembly Hall on Senior night to end the Hoosier’s season is not to be understated in difficulty .. will need 100.00% focus for 40 minutes
 
R

RutgersDom

All-American
Nov 18, 2003
5,972
7,405
113
erdelyaj said:
I almost think at this point it’s better to NOT get the double bye so we have a more winnable neutral site game in the B1G tournament
Click to expand...
I agree with this...Rather have the extra game...Don't think it hurts us IF we win the next two. Obviously, if we lose tonight we'll have the extra game and will need to win at least 2 int he tourney
 
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mikeyoc

All-Conference
Apr 19, 2005
1,250
1,238
113
PSAL_Hoops said:
It’s not that it’s not out there as a possibility it just feels like the least of our concern one way or the other right now.
Click to expand...
Yep. Look wasn't all that
long ago that we were
destined to play in the 1st
round year after year. 3rd
year in a row we are still
relevant. Let's win tonight
 
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ScarletDave

ScarletDave

Heisman
Oct 7, 2010
34,597
15,352
85
2003alyssa said:
I agree with this...Rather have the extra game...Don't think it hurts us IF we win the next two. Obviously, if we lose tonight we'll have the extra game and will need to win at least 2 int he tourney
Click to expand...
It will work out either way. If we win 2 we won’t need another W in the tourney so might as well get the double bye. If we lose 1 we’ll need the W and better that we play a lower seed first
 
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read option

All-Conference
Nov 12, 2013
2,835
3,236
0
Win the last 2 regular season games to setup an easier 2nd Rd B1G tourney game and win that one. 19-13 winning 3 of the last 4 we play gets us in.
 
J

JavaDunk18

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2011
1,102
1,014
0
Winning the next 2 should at least get us to Dayton. If we lose tonight but beat Penn St, we would probably need 2 to get into the tourney, possibly 1, if it was over a team we are competing for a slot against - and that would just get us to Dayton. A win tonight, being a difficult road game could still put us on the right side of the bubble, regardless of what happens the rest of the way..
 
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Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,233
11,049
113
ScarletDave said:
It will work out either way. If we win 2 we won’t need another W in the tourney so might as well get the double bye. If we lose 1 we’ll need the W and better that we play a lower seed first
Click to expand...
I'm thinking we have a shot to win the tourney whether we need to or not. Especially if not. Who can't we beat?
 
N

njrexguy

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2007
2,173
1,531
113
The team is on a 3 game skid.

Winning tonight is a real stretch. With the way things have been going, not likely to be a W.

If a couple guys get hot on offense and the defense is burning it up, could be close.
 
S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,448
49,369
113
PSAL_Hoops said:
Really doesn’t matter. Like not at all.

Some of you really aren’t grasping how hard tonight’s game is. In true road environments (not counting last year) - how many BIG games have we ever won against teams not named Nebraska? This is senior night in a hostile environment going up against another team playing for extremely high stakes. A massive challenge. The last thing to be thinking about are sim scenarios that pre-assume we pull this off. Oh yeah -2 years ago at Mackey was hardly like this. So get that out of your head too. That Purdue team was an extreme long shot to make the field. They needed a deep tourney run to even be in the discussion. Indiana all but clinches a bid with a win tonight.
Click to expand...
How many people think tonight's game won't be hard?

Destroying that straw man
 
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