By my count, there are 64 teams that have at least 6 wins already. Colorado State probably makes 65 tonight. There are 80 bowl bids, meaning 15 more spots.
At 5-7, we would be behind any 6-6 team, no matter what. If all the 6-6 teams are in bowls, and there are still spots available, it goes by the APR ratings. If there are 5 slots available for 5-7, the best 5-7 teams in APR are the ones the get the bids, regardless of prestige. Our APR is 971.
These teams are definitely in line ahead of us, no matter if they win their last game or not, because their APR is better than ours:
992 5-6 Northwestern
990 5-6 Vanderbilt
984 5-6 North Texas
981 5-6 Boston College
979 5-6 Indiana
977 5-6 Maryland
That leaves 9 more slots we'd potentially compete for. These are teams that could still get to 6-6 with APRs worse than ours. If they make it to 6-6, they're ahead of us. If not, they're behind us:
5-5 South Alabama. Ugh. Plays Idaho and New Mexico State. Probably gets to 6-6.
5-5 TCU. Plays Texas and Kansas State. Probably gets to 6-6.
5-6 Miami OH. Plays Ball State. Probably a win.
5-6 NC State. Plays North Carolina. Probably a loss.
5-6 Arizona State. Plays Arizona. Probably a win.
5-6 Ole Miss. Would have to lose for this thread to be worth talking about.
5-6 UTSA. Plays Charlotte. Probably a win.
5-6 Southern Miss. Plays Louisiana Tech. Probably a loss.
5-6 Akron. Plays Ohio. Probably a loss.
5-6 SMU. Plays Navy. Probably a loss.
4-6 Louisiana-Lafayette. Plays Arkansas State and LA-Monroe. Probably doesn't get to 6-6.
So that's ~5 more bowl eligible teams. That means there may be 4 more slots we could get. (obviously speculating here. It's possible that we could get to 80 6-6 teams just with those above) These teams have APRs better than us, but may or may not make it to 5-7.
4-7 Duke. Plays Miami FL. Probably a loss.
4-7 Notre Dame. Plays USC. Probably a loss.
4-7 Syracuse. Plays Pittsburgh. Probably a loss.
4-6 UCLA. Losing to USC right now. Plays Cal next week. Probably makes it to 5-7.
That leaves 3 more slots potentially. The slots on the APR list are 971:
5-6 Texas. Plays TCU next week and could qualify for a bowl outright.
5-7 Hawaii
4-7 Mississippi State
Not sure what happens if there are 1 or 2 slots and all of us tied at 971. But it looks like there's a decent chance that we get a bowl if we beat Ole Miss. Obviously there's a whole lot of moving parts here and a few upsets (either from teams below us in APR getting to 6 wins, or teams above us in APR getting to 5-7) and there's no space, but I think we're better than 50-50 to get one IF we win next Saturday.
At 5-7, we would be behind any 6-6 team, no matter what. If all the 6-6 teams are in bowls, and there are still spots available, it goes by the APR ratings. If there are 5 slots available for 5-7, the best 5-7 teams in APR are the ones the get the bids, regardless of prestige. Our APR is 971.
These teams are definitely in line ahead of us, no matter if they win their last game or not, because their APR is better than ours:
992 5-6 Northwestern
990 5-6 Vanderbilt
984 5-6 North Texas
981 5-6 Boston College
979 5-6 Indiana
977 5-6 Maryland
That leaves 9 more slots we'd potentially compete for. These are teams that could still get to 6-6 with APRs worse than ours. If they make it to 6-6, they're ahead of us. If not, they're behind us:
5-5 South Alabama. Ugh. Plays Idaho and New Mexico State. Probably gets to 6-6.
5-5 TCU. Plays Texas and Kansas State. Probably gets to 6-6.
5-6 Miami OH. Plays Ball State. Probably a win.
5-6 NC State. Plays North Carolina. Probably a loss.
5-6 Arizona State. Plays Arizona. Probably a win.
5-6 Ole Miss. Would have to lose for this thread to be worth talking about.
5-6 UTSA. Plays Charlotte. Probably a win.
5-6 Southern Miss. Plays Louisiana Tech. Probably a loss.
5-6 Akron. Plays Ohio. Probably a loss.
5-6 SMU. Plays Navy. Probably a loss.
4-6 Louisiana-Lafayette. Plays Arkansas State and LA-Monroe. Probably doesn't get to 6-6.
So that's ~5 more bowl eligible teams. That means there may be 4 more slots we could get. (obviously speculating here. It's possible that we could get to 80 6-6 teams just with those above) These teams have APRs better than us, but may or may not make it to 5-7.
4-7 Duke. Plays Miami FL. Probably a loss.
4-7 Notre Dame. Plays USC. Probably a loss.
4-7 Syracuse. Plays Pittsburgh. Probably a loss.
4-6 UCLA. Losing to USC right now. Plays Cal next week. Probably makes it to 5-7.
That leaves 3 more slots potentially. The slots on the APR list are 971:
5-6 Texas. Plays TCU next week and could qualify for a bowl outright.
5-7 Hawaii
4-7 Mississippi State
Not sure what happens if there are 1 or 2 slots and all of us tied at 971. But it looks like there's a decent chance that we get a bowl if we beat Ole Miss. Obviously there's a whole lot of moving parts here and a few upsets (either from teams below us in APR getting to 6 wins, or teams above us in APR getting to 5-7) and there's no space, but I think we're better than 50-50 to get one IF we win next Saturday.
