Vegas Line
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That's essentially even assuming the typical 3 points for home field.
You are wrong about that. I think we'll win but it won't be easy.
Our secondary had some struggles yesterday. Indiana could exploit them if that recurs on Saturday.
This is an opportunity to play a good game and show how the improvements we have seen in recent weeks are legit.
I'm not sure anyone really thinks we are a top 10 national power but are we good enough to beat the teams in our conference who are also not 10 ten national powers? If we lose to tOSU or even UW you can chalk it up to strength of schedule but if you can beat the Indiana's, Illinois, Purdue's and Minnesota's you show that you are a team on the rise with the potential to be a top ten team. NU needs to be consistent before it can be great IMO.
I'm not sure anyone really thinks we are a top 10 national power but are we good enough to beat the teams in our conference who are also not 10 ten national powers? If we lose to tOSU or even UW you can chalk it up to strength of schedule but if you can beat the Indiana's, Illinois, Purdue's and Minnesota's you show that you are a team on the rise with the potential to be a top ten team. NU needs to be consistent before it can be great IMO.
Agree...it's funny because any handicapper worth a damn would look at NU's home vs. away record and give us an automatic -3 when we're playing elsewhere, and zero it out at home.
Yeah it's always felt that way to me too. So just checked and ran the numbers quickly. Since Fitz took over as head coach in 2006, conference record only to better normalize for opponent:
Home: 16-25
Away: 22-20
That's a big enough sample size that one would think it's meaningful. Wasn't about to go through all the scores and find out total margin of victory or Pythagorean wins or anything, but someone else is welcome to.
Fyi spread is now down to Cats -1.5.
I would have guessed our win % for away games was actually much higher than it apparently is.
well that's conference games only, but you probably realized that. given we are 38-45 overall under Fitz, having 22 of the wins be away is a pretty significant skew. backing out spread from implied ML's based on those win percentages, it would suggest on an average road game we should have been -1, while in an average home game we should have been +4 or so. weird...
in 10 years on the road we have gone 3-1 thrice, 1-3 thrice, and 2-2 four times (2-0 so far this year).
in 10 years at home we have gone 3-1 twice, 2-2 thrice, 1-3 four times, and 0-4 once (0-1 so far this year).
so... all we need to do is win @Purdue and @Minny to complete our first ever home or away conference sweep under Fitz. oh, and win @OSU. hmmmmm
I wondered about that too. My theory is that our guys get a bit demoralized playing at home. The crowds are either not that big and loud or else are made up of 50% or more of the opposing team's fans. That must be a downer. On the road, they get to escape all that and enjoy silencing another team's rabid fans.
It's not a downer, but it is confusing energy. For example, if you're a defensive player, you sit on the sideline with your defensive coaches concentrating on what your unit needs to do, and you don't watch the offense. You suddenly hear the crowd explode with cheers. So you think the offense scored, but it turns out they fumbled and you need to get out there and put the fire out. Sometimes loud noises mean your offense scored, but those are usually not as loud or enthusiastic as the sack or turnover. It's confusing... At worst, the crowd is a nonfactor for you when you're at home. At home, it's supposed to be a factor.
On the road, all the energy is hostile, but it's never confusing. You against the world and you know it and generally love it.
I have clearly not been paying attention. This is shocking to me. It's almost inconceivable that a program that has been relatively consistent like NU could be so godawful at home.
Thank you for this response. This is very enlightening. I guess the next obvious question then is how much do you think this limits the potential for our program? We have obviously had successful teams and some great players come through, but there is no question we lack the depth of high quality recruits that the typical Top25 team gets. In ranking the disadvantages NU faces as a program, where does fan support rank? I would have to think its near the top if not the number one negative.
Maybe I'm overemphasizing this point. There are plenty of state schools that can draw larger, enthusiastic crowds and their program is still mediocre, so its not a magic bullet. But I often wonder if this program had a rabid fan base that could at least fill Dyche Stadium, how much further along we'd be. I hate to talk negatively about the program like this on the board, but we also can't just ignore these things. Besides, this discussion is buried in a thread entitled Vegas Line so hopefully no recruits or families will find it.
I think people forget that these are college kids. Obviously there are a heck of a lot more distractions that come with being on campus.
It's going to keep hurting the team in those early season home games against lousy opponents where we always seem to play like crap win or lose. Shouldn't need a wild crowd to beat those teams though...
However, there were a few games in 1995 and 1996 where our crowd was a legit Big 10 home crowd. Penn State in 1995 and even perhaps Michigan in 1996 (when there were still a lot of UM fans). I guess the secret is to be good for a prolonged period to keep the turnout going.
The problem is less about the lack of home fan numbers and more about the the inability of the fans we do have to show enthusiasm in a way that's consistent with typical B1G fandom. Our fans often act like they're at a movie theatre or something...
I think it is what it is and it shouldn't be an excuse. It may result in making NU a better road team. If you don't live by the home crowd, you won't die by the road crowd.
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MRCat, I always appreciate your insight and all you have done for NU football. However, having watched NU football since the late fifties and being a season ticket holder for 50 years, I want to speak up for the fans. While your comments about enthusiasm are well taken, it begins with the team. You cite a couple of games from 1995 and 1996. Those were great games (the Michigan game in 96 was in my opinion one of the best, if not the best game I ever saw), however, in the games leading up to them the team played, as some defensive tackle said after ND in 95, "like our hair was on fire". I think fans came to those games expecting the team to perform at its highest level and responded accordingly. To say I approached the Duke game this year with the same level of anticipation and excitement after watching the WMU and ISU games would be grossly erroneous. I would also note that at the Nebraska game there were many Nebraska fans around me in the heart of a prime NU seat section. While I don't condone selling or giving tickets to opposing fans I can at least understand fans lack of enthusiasm going into the game based on everything they had seen up to that point.
One final comment, having received dozens of questionnaires asking about my "experience" at the previous game relative to parking, concessions, etc., I have been asked "how was the game". Until the athletic department begins to show more concern about how the fans feel about the game part of the "football experience" as opposed to the pregame and timeout fillers I'm not sure they can expect fans are going to give it an all-in priority.
Aren't you saying largely the same thing? Though I would agree with MRCat on a couple points -- the number of times I've been asked to sit down while standing with our defense facing a third down is laughable.
Adding to what MRCat said upthread, I read a book regarding sports statistics that discussed home field advantage at great length, and the authors' conclusion was that the advantage had a lot to do with effect of a highly partisan crowd on referees' decision-making. I understand that a lot of calls can be looked at in replay, mitigating this effect, but there are a lot that can't or won't be overturned by replay because the replay is inconclusive. They also found that the closer the fans to the field and the larger the stadium, the bigger the advantage.
Thanks for sharing that. It is a huge insight coming from you. It makes me want to get to more games and make more noise.
How can we impress on the students and fans that they matter too?
I don't mean to disagree with MRCat other than to which comes first - fan support or on-field performance. I have heard about people objecting to others standing on third down but have not seen it personally. I would love for the whole place to be standing and loud, as I think it should be, but my point was that, in my opinion, that type of atmosphere is built by focused, intense on-field performance over time. When you get out-played by teams you should beat and squeak by teams you should dominate you spend some of whatever bank of fan support you have accumulated. And that will not be overcome by 30 second videos talking about how many personal bests you have achieved when you go out and perform as we did to start the season this year or in 2014.
Nebraska has had some bad games and seasons. Last season they went 6-7 , includes losing to Purdue and Illinois. The have sold their stadium out 347 consecutive games. They have sold out every game since 1962. They aren't fair weather fans.
Of course, but Nebraska is a very different beast. For starters, they have built up a lot of credibility with their fan base due to their mostly successful past. Anyone my age or older still can't stop associating NU with long losing streaks. (MR and company re-wrote the history books for us, but not entirely) And, not to sound like a big-city snob, but Lincoln, Nebraska is not Chicago. So we're not going to match what they have in Nebraska, nor should we be expected to.
But even a program like Minnesota..... I watched their game the other week against Iowa and the crowd shots showed a pretty full stadium, mostly in maroon, making a fair amount of noise.... Minnesota is nothing special. I would think as far as football programs go, we are on par if not above them these days. But I don't think we can get a crowd like that even. So, my question is.. how much does that matter to recruits? Are there high-level recruits out there that like the perk of an NU education, that think highly of Pat Fitzgerald and the type of role model he is, that like the idea of living in Chicago and playing BIG football, but see those crowds and just can't quite pull the trigger? And if that happens frequently, do we have to accept a ceiling on how high this program can go?
So "winning football games is what will fill seats with more enthusiastic fans." That's what MRCat was saying.
The confluence of events leading up to the 1995 PSU game were something that likely can never be duplicated and probably isn't a realistic aspiration for "what could be." It was a home game that really mattered late in a so-called "miracle season." There was a lot on the line for a team that literally had nothing other than pride on the line for the prior ~20 years. The normal (~25 - 30 thousand) tried and true NU fans were there, but so were 15 - 20 thousand that were from out of state flying in for what almost was a bowl game type of game environment. It also didn't hurt that there aren't a lot of PSU alumni in Chicago to eat up ticket capacity compared to UM, OSU, Iowa, UW, etc.
I beg to differ with you about where crowd energy and enthusiasm comes from. It doesn't begin with the team at any place I know of that has a great home environment. It begins with the culture of the place and its fan base. Crowds feed the teams at these places (e.g., UW, OSU, Iowa, etc.) and not the other way around. Only at NU is the team expected to play a football game and then also be responsible for jarring a sleepy crowd out of its slumber.
I've been to many Wisconsin vs. Ball State / Western Illinois type games where Bucky didn't play particularly well, but the crowd still behaved like the game was a Superbowl. I've seen the same thing at Ohio State where the fans are more fired up for Bowling Green coming to town than the players, and they let the OSU players know it through the decibel level they give off...
For better or worse, NU grads (and fans) are just less likely to be the folks that get up at 5:00 AM to get to the tailgate early, paint their face, do a beer bong at a tailgate, or stand up and yell on 3rd down. It could be just the nature of people that tend to go to NU, or perhaps it's the 20 year gap in an enthusiastic fan base (or those ~43-63 years of age). Those folks who stayed with the team or became new fans through the dark ages got very used to being quiet and for good reason. Perhaps the most enthusiastic of the that generation never became fans because they couldn't tolerate all the losing...
As an aside, I probably should not have referenced the 1996 Michigan game as a great example of NU crowd behavior. As I recall, despite winning 9 straight Big Ten games up to that point, much of the NU home crowd headed for the exits in the 3rd and 4th quarter when we were down just a couple of scores (before coming back to win 17-16).
My son had plenty of offers with big fan bases. Some schools didn't offer because we told them he wouldn't go to the West coast. I guess everyone picks schools for different reasons. Jango and I loved NU, and it was my dream school for my son. He was a 4.26 student, but still could never have gotten in NU without football. The facilities , stadium, and fan support had nothing to do with our choice. It came down to character of coaches, players, and families we met. It was because we both believe we will win a B1G . Jango and I loved the strength coaches and felt like they would develop him into the best player he could be. We felt like Fitz held his players to a high standard on and off the field. No other school offers what NU does. Recruits and parents are getting smarter about recruiting and picking schools. Players who work their butts off to qualify academically to go to Northwestern are and will more and more chose NU over high profile football factories. I am not going to say many kids are not sucked into the lure of big stadiums and fan bases, I prefer the kid who wants to work and has a chip on his shoulder. I love the kids we have at NU and the families. All coaches say they are family oriented, Fitz means it. We are a family. Our coaches, players, fans, and parents all buy in. Do we get disappointed when we under perform ? of course we do. But at the end of the day we band together and do what we need to do to right the ship. I am proud my son is a Wildcat, and he is extremely happy with his choice. He is excelling at NU . His strength coaches are helping him make amazing gains, his position coach is very positive and supportive,Hanks is the best DC in the B1G, and Fitz and his support staff are amazing. Our AD and President fully support our program, and the small amount of fans we have are passionate. We are going to WIN. Our program is going to continue to show improvement. We have the right staff at every position. We are going to stumble, you are family, be there to help lift us up. Our kids wont embarrass you or your University on or off the field. We are all proud to wear purple and to represent such a great University. By the way, we were pretty loud and proud at MSU.
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My personal opinion is that this is very likely BS. I don't know how you can measure referees' good/bad decision-making and then try to tie it the crowd anyway. How that is measured and then proven seems highly dubious to me.
The huge tangible benefit is to the home team's defense as a loud crowd can really disrupt an offense's ability to communicate with one another (and often cause false starts). This is particularly true on 3rd down or otherwise extremely important red-zone type situations where a QB may not be able to audible (or have to use a valuable timeout) because of the noise.
I think it goes beyond that as that the energy you feel from a loud and energetic crowd can really feed your emotions. When you're on the road, you have to feed yourself and that's harder to do consistently.
They used to be pretty terrible, but our students have really improved over the past decade or so and are actually quite good these days IMO. Given our small enrollment, the student turnout at games is quite fabulous as well. The only problem with our student section is there aren't enough actual students. Keep in mind that Ohio State has ~65,000 students. Wisconsin has ~43,000 of them. Northwestern only has about 8,300 students. If we cloned each student ~8 (for OSU) or ~5 (for UW) times, I think our students would be every bit as loud and terrific as those other schools. I have little doubt that NU gets a much higher turnout as a percentage of the student body as either of those two places.
Without the students, I could hear Fitz fart on the sideline from my Wildcat Den seats under the press box. They're the best thing our crowd has going for it by a mile.
Matt, read the book Scorecasting. It may change your mind on that, even for someone who played the game.
Pretty sick and pretty NU that the criticism (even by some who played) falls on those who actually give a **** enough to show up (not behaving in the loud and animated way that I guess people want them to behave). What about all of the asswipes who can't seem to show up to use their seats (or who blow them out on stubhub) and their precious parking passes? I have been to all of the B10 venues and many others. The hardcore fan base all behaves pretty much the same. More of them for many other programs but that's not my fault.
I have little doubt winning helps to put butts in the seats. However, our fan base has always been "very calm" compared to other B1G fans, even when we have been in the midst of seasons with 8,9 or 10 wins and more of them actually show up.
Coming off a ten win season, my fellow fans in the stands almost put me to sleep in the first half of the home opener against Western Michigan.
Our fans are just inherently calm and quiet. They ALWAYS have been, and they likely will continue to be for the foreseeable future. I don't care if there's a zero win season or a twelve win season.
The typical Wisconsin fan cheering for his 4-8 Badger team will still make more noise than a typical Northwestern fan cheering for his 9-3 team. That's just the way it has been and likely will be for the foreseeable future.