Updated B1G Standings

[Loyal_2RU]

A lot more extensive than the 8 or so scenarios I ran .

My only concern is that these scenarios (all 100k) likely don’t account for mag (and possibly Caleb) being out.

they include the last 4 games that build those aspects in

 

[RUsojo]

Doubt your facts. Minnesota , Michigan and Northwestern have to be more likely wins than losses and Penn State must be close like 47-48%.

They’re not “my facts” they’re facts lol

Win probabilities over the next three games are something like give or take:

Michigan 56%
Penn St 58%
Minnesota 98%

That’s 2.12 wins over the next 3 games. I could see both Michigan and Penn St a shade closer to 50/50 especially if Caleb injury news is known but wanted to give us benefit of the doubt.

 

[fatsam98]

I put us at 3-1 (loss at PSU)... 2nd place.

2-2 (losses vs Michigan and at PSU)... 9th place

Wild

 

[Knight Shift]

A lot more extensive than the 8 or so scenarios I ran .

My only concern is that these scenarios (all 100k) likely don’t account for mag (and possibly Caleb) being out.

I could not handle it. It was too much like work. Was hoping someone more knowledgeable would interpret/comment.

 

[RedTeamUpstream94]

I put us at 3-1 (loss at PSU)... 2nd place.

2-2 (losses vs Michigan and at PSU)... 9th place

Wild

And yet there are some that still say the OSU- robbery won’t have an impact

If ever there was a season where something like that matters - this is it. Literally EVERY game is HUGE

That ONE play

 

[goru7]

They’re not “my facts” they’re facts lol

Win probabilities over the next three games are something like give or take:

Michigan 56%
Penn St 58%
Minnesota 98%

That’s 2.12 wins over the next 3 games. I could see both Michigan and Penn St a shade closer to 50/50 especially if Caleb injury news is known but wanted to give us benefit of the doubt.

So you left out NW but the probability says Michigan 56% and Minnesota98% so that is 2 and I presume NW is 3. Is Penn State the 58% or are we? 3-1 seems like the most probable if Penn State is the 58%. , otherwise it is 4-0?
But this likely before the Caleb news that seems to be breaking now , whereas it was likely thought Caleb was only going to miss 1 game.

 

[RUsojo]

So you left out NW but the probability says Michigan 56% and Minnesota98% so that is 2 and I presume NW is 3. Is Penn State the 58% or are we? 3-1 seems like the most probable if Penn State is the 58%. , otherwise it is 4-0?
But this likely before the Caleb news that seems to be breaking now , whereas it was likely thought Caleb was only going to miss 1 game.

They’ll all be close to pickems and one possessions spreads which puts win probability at around 2.5/2.6 wins.

 

[RUsojo]

So you left out NW but the probability says Michigan 56% and Minnesota98% so that is 2 and I presume NW is 3. Is Penn State the 58% or are we? 3-1 seems like the most probable if Penn State is the 58%. , otherwise it is 4-0?
But this likely before the Caleb news that seems to be breaking now , whereas it was likely thought Caleb was only going to miss 1 game.

We almost went 4-0

 

[RUsojo]

Doubt your facts. Minnesota , Michigan and Northwestern have to be more likely wins than losses and Penn State must be close like 47-48%.

So you left out NW but the probability says Michigan 56% and Minnesota98% so that is 2 and I presume NW is 3. Is Penn State the 58% or are we? 3-1 seems like the most probable if Penn State is the 58%. , otherwise it is 4-0?
But this likely before the Caleb news that seems to be breaking now , whereas it was likely thought Caleb was only going to miss 1 game.