Huge upset for him, helped with team score and locked up his spot at NCAAs
UNC Wrestling 2025-2026
- Thread starter 81Heel/M1
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Great effort by Platt against the veteran Stout, before losing 2-4. Think we are tied with state going into the finals with 3 wrestlers each if I am reading this correctly.
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Going into the finals:
Tech - 88.5
Stanford - 78
state - 50
Carolina - 50
Pitt - 37
Virginia - 21.5
dook - 2
Tech - 88.5
Stanford - 78
state - 50
Carolina - 50
Pitt - 37
Virginia - 21.5
dook - 2
We had a chance to edge out State but they had a major in their 2nd finalist tonight whereas we had Dailey lose. Will mean we're finishing 4th overall
Overall, today was more like the early season in terms of good performances from a maybe overmatched team, fun to see
So the tournament is over, and how do you think we did? I feel much better about this year's tournament than last year. That said, here is a weight by weight look at expectations vs results:
125 - Terukina was seeded 4th in a very tough weight class (3 top 10 wrestlers), and he finished in 4th place. He also qualified for the ncaat. On the way to this finish he lost a 2-2 TBRT criteria match to the #1 seed, and #3 wrestler nationally, and lost a 1 point match to last years ncaat champion. He is a graduate transfer that basically replaced Moore with a very similarly ranked wrestler, and represented UNC well. I wish him luck at ncaat, and would not bet against him winning a few matches there. It is hard to say that he exceeded expectations, but he certainly met the expectations that we should have had for him.
133 - Oakley lost 2 straight against wrestlers he was technically supposed to lose to based on seeding. With a 5 seed he was supposed to lose the 4/5 match, and the 3/5 consolation semis match. So he met the expectations based on how he wrestled this year, but if you remember last years dual meet record you would have to be a little disappointed with this result. I am not certain he gets invited to the ncaat at this point, but it is possible. He certainly lost to very good wrestlers, but the fact is that he lost twice. If he is done, I am grateful for the way he represented the University and the team.
141 - Simcox wrestled to seed, and finished 2nd. I still think he is capable of winning this tournament, and he lost on a riding time point (1:30 of riding time). He needed a takedown, but was never able to get it. Still he finished 2nd as a redshirt freshman, and I am looking forward to seeing how far he can go. He is still just a redshirt freshman.
149 - Askew was a true freshman, and I kept hoping he would get that signature win that would change his trajectory. It never came, and he lost twice in the tournament with no wins. It was not fair that he was our starter this year, and I hope he take full advantage of his redshirt year next year. With a 7 seed it is hard to say he did not meet expectations, but this is clearly not a scenario that we can afford going forward. Next year we should have Scott back and some others may bulk up to challenge at this weight.
157 - Root was seeded 4th, and he finished 4th. He could have possibly finished 3rd, as he split with Washleski, winning the 4/5 match before losing to him in the 3rd place match. Again, he is a redshirt freshman, qualified for the ncaat, and I look forward to seeing where he can go in wrestling.
165 - Bryce Hepner, ACC Champion. Enough said, and I think after a rough several week period late in the season he clearly exceeded his seed and the expectations. Great job Hepner, and it seems we may get him for another year. Good luck at the ncaat.
174 - Of all the wrestlers that had to step in and/or step up as a freshman, Carrigan put on the best show today. After winning his last 2 matches in the acc dual meet season, he came on in the acct. He lost to the eventual acc champion at this weight, but he won everything else. He beat the #3 seed in his first match, and beat the #1 seed in his consolation finals match. A 3rd place finish qualified him for the ncaat, and he clearly exceeded expectations. Note that he got that signature win, and the confidence carried over into the acct. Great job by this young wrestler.
184 - I thought Dailey could win this tournament, and a sudden victory loss in the championship match suggests that was a real possibility. He exceeded his 4 seed, and did very well. As with several of the young wrestlers I am really looking forward to seeing how high they can go in the future (starting in about 2 weeks).
197 - Platt has shown some signs of potential that is better than what his average outing looked like this year. He was seeded 5th, and finished 4th. He did not qualify based on only 3 auto bids, but he did make a decent case for him to make the ncaat via an at-large bid. I am not predicting this, but it is possible after solidly beating Brophy and Burrell. He also wrestled well against a very solid Stout from Pitt.
285 - Levy is perhaps the individual most negatively impacted by our 3 season ending injuries. He had to step in late to replace Neves after his injury. He, like Askew, likely needed an extra year to develop. While he ever so slightly underperformed in the tournament today, he only costs the team a half point by losing his second match. Hopefully he and Askew can spend next year learning, developing, and having fun with wrestling.
Based on the seeding, we should have been 5th, well behind 4th place Pitt. We actually finished 16 points ahead of Pitt, and 4 points behind state. I would say this clearly ranks as exceeding expectations for the tournament. Tech, Carolina, and Virginia were the 3 teams that most exceeded their seeding for the tournament. While the points over expectations are sort of dramatic, each team finished 1 place higher that the seeding would have predicted.
Overall I am really pleased with this year's acct. On top of that, we should return a champion, and a group of redshirt freshmen that did well (2 in 2nd place, 1 3rd place wrestler, and 2 4th place wrestlers). More on potential holes in the lineup and/or transfer portal possibilities later, but for now it was a good showing, and hopefully we can get 1-2 at-large bids (Oakley and/or Platt). Here is hoping they can do equally as well at the ncaat.
125 - Terukina was seeded 4th in a very tough weight class (3 top 10 wrestlers), and he finished in 4th place. He also qualified for the ncaat. On the way to this finish he lost a 2-2 TBRT criteria match to the #1 seed, and #3 wrestler nationally, and lost a 1 point match to last years ncaat champion. He is a graduate transfer that basically replaced Moore with a very similarly ranked wrestler, and represented UNC well. I wish him luck at ncaat, and would not bet against him winning a few matches there. It is hard to say that he exceeded expectations, but he certainly met the expectations that we should have had for him.
133 - Oakley lost 2 straight against wrestlers he was technically supposed to lose to based on seeding. With a 5 seed he was supposed to lose the 4/5 match, and the 3/5 consolation semis match. So he met the expectations based on how he wrestled this year, but if you remember last years dual meet record you would have to be a little disappointed with this result. I am not certain he gets invited to the ncaat at this point, but it is possible. He certainly lost to very good wrestlers, but the fact is that he lost twice. If he is done, I am grateful for the way he represented the University and the team.
141 - Simcox wrestled to seed, and finished 2nd. I still think he is capable of winning this tournament, and he lost on a riding time point (1:30 of riding time). He needed a takedown, but was never able to get it. Still he finished 2nd as a redshirt freshman, and I am looking forward to seeing how far he can go. He is still just a redshirt freshman.
149 - Askew was a true freshman, and I kept hoping he would get that signature win that would change his trajectory. It never came, and he lost twice in the tournament with no wins. It was not fair that he was our starter this year, and I hope he take full advantage of his redshirt year next year. With a 7 seed it is hard to say he did not meet expectations, but this is clearly not a scenario that we can afford going forward. Next year we should have Scott back and some others may bulk up to challenge at this weight.
157 - Root was seeded 4th, and he finished 4th. He could have possibly finished 3rd, as he split with Washleski, winning the 4/5 match before losing to him in the 3rd place match. Again, he is a redshirt freshman, qualified for the ncaat, and I look forward to seeing where he can go in wrestling.
165 - Bryce Hepner, ACC Champion. Enough said, and I think after a rough several week period late in the season he clearly exceeded his seed and the expectations. Great job Hepner, and it seems we may get him for another year. Good luck at the ncaat.
174 - Of all the wrestlers that had to step in and/or step up as a freshman, Carrigan put on the best show today. After winning his last 2 matches in the acc dual meet season, he came on in the acct. He lost to the eventual acc champion at this weight, but he won everything else. He beat the #3 seed in his first match, and beat the #1 seed in his consolation finals match. A 3rd place finish qualified him for the ncaat, and he clearly exceeded expectations. Note that he got that signature win, and the confidence carried over into the acct. Great job by this young wrestler.
184 - I thought Dailey could win this tournament, and a sudden victory loss in the championship match suggests that was a real possibility. He exceeded his 4 seed, and did very well. As with several of the young wrestlers I am really looking forward to seeing how high they can go in the future (starting in about 2 weeks).
197 - Platt has shown some signs of potential that is better than what his average outing looked like this year. He was seeded 5th, and finished 4th. He did not qualify based on only 3 auto bids, but he did make a decent case for him to make the ncaat via an at-large bid. I am not predicting this, but it is possible after solidly beating Brophy and Burrell. He also wrestled well against a very solid Stout from Pitt.
285 - Levy is perhaps the individual most negatively impacted by our 3 season ending injuries. He had to step in late to replace Neves after his injury. He, like Askew, likely needed an extra year to develop. While he ever so slightly underperformed in the tournament today, he only costs the team a half point by losing his second match. Hopefully he and Askew can spend next year learning, developing, and having fun with wrestling.
Based on the seeding, we should have been 5th, well behind 4th place Pitt. We actually finished 16 points ahead of Pitt, and 4 points behind state. I would say this clearly ranks as exceeding expectations for the tournament. Tech, Carolina, and Virginia were the 3 teams that most exceeded their seeding for the tournament. While the points over expectations are sort of dramatic, each team finished 1 place higher that the seeding would have predicted.
Overall I am really pleased with this year's acct. On top of that, we should return a champion, and a group of redshirt freshmen that did well (2 in 2nd place, 1 3rd place wrestler, and 2 4th place wrestlers). More on potential holes in the lineup and/or transfer portal possibilities later, but for now it was a good showing, and hopefully we can get 1-2 at-large bids (Oakley and/or Platt). Here is hoping they can do equally as well at the ncaat.
Very satisfying performance yesterday, after it looked like our momentum built earlier in the season was gone.
Not having anyone “underperform” is unusual and was key for us outperforming expectations overall.
We stole two bids that weren’t allocated to our wrestlers. Root had a great tournament, he wrestled very aggressively and smartly. Too bad he lost the 3rd place match but beating that guy in the first round was the key to getting the NCAA bid. Carrigan was outstanding and really proud of how he has progressed.
Not having anyone “underperform” is unusual and was key for us outperforming expectations overall.
We stole two bids that weren’t allocated to our wrestlers. Root had a great tournament, he wrestled very aggressively and smartly. Too bad he lost the 3rd place match but beating that guy in the first round was the key to getting the NCAA bid. Carrigan was outstanding and really proud of how he has progressed.
Bids will likely go out tomorrow for the at-large bids to the ncaat. 6 are automatically qualified based on their tournament showing (Terukina, Simcox, Root, Hepner, Carrigan, and Dailey. The 2 wrestlers that might be in the conversation for an at-large bid are Oakley and Platt.
The case for Oakley to get a bid is that he was ranked around 27 prior to the acct, and lost to the #26 wrestler (in SV) and to the #21 wrestler. Neither would be considered a bad loss, and in essence he could have possibly won, but was actually predicted to lose. The other point would be that theoretically 6 wrestlers with a better resume would have needed to have missed getting an auto bid in order to knock him out of the tournament. This could come from a higher ranked wrestler having a bad conference tournament, or a lower ranked wrestler have a good tournament though not quite qualifying. The argument for him not making the tournament is that he did nothing to claim his spot in the acct. The other point is Tallmadge from Pitt also didn’t get an auto bid after finishing 4th and beating Oakley, so he will likely get a bid. After that bid is awarded the question is will they give the acc 2 at-large bids?
For Platt you are hoping for the opposite logic to play out. Going into the acct he was on the outside looking in (not ranked in the top 33 wrestlers at the weight). Unlike the 133 pound weight class where there were 3 top 21 ranked wrestlers and 2 mid-20s ranked wrestlers the acc only had 3 top 12 wrestlers ranked at this weight. So in spite of finishing 4th behind 3 highly ranked wrestlers, the acc has no other potential qualifier whose bid Platt could steal. He will likely need 1 or more low ranked wrestlers to have under performed in their conference tournament, and/or some ranked wrestlers to have been hurt and unable to compete with no more likely replacement criteria than Platt’s 4th place acct finish.
If I had to guess, I would guess that we get 1 at-large bid. Oakley seems the more likely, but Platt could be more helpful down the road if he got to experience the ncaat early on. You just never know what will happen. Some years back we had a wrestler that got a bid and was placed in the pigtail match pitting the 32 vs 33 seed. He picked up a pin, with the extra bonus points for the team, before facing the 1 seed in the first round. Even getting to the pigtail match puts you in the experience, and a bonus points for win in pigtails adds the same bonus points as any other match.
Final note on at-large bids is that Carrigan stole the bid awarded to the acc for Augustine from Pitt. Augustine will certainly get a bid, but someone else will not because of Carrigan. To that I say job well done young man.
Adding a post script: Last year we qualified 8 for the ncaat, and this year only 6. Of note is the fact that we lost 3 wrestlers for the season, and all 3 were qualifiers last year. Only 1 of the backups qualified for ncaat, so it is reasonable to think that if they had been healthy we might have again qualified at least 8 wrestlers.
The case for Oakley to get a bid is that he was ranked around 27 prior to the acct, and lost to the #26 wrestler (in SV) and to the #21 wrestler. Neither would be considered a bad loss, and in essence he could have possibly won, but was actually predicted to lose. The other point would be that theoretically 6 wrestlers with a better resume would have needed to have missed getting an auto bid in order to knock him out of the tournament. This could come from a higher ranked wrestler having a bad conference tournament, or a lower ranked wrestler have a good tournament though not quite qualifying. The argument for him not making the tournament is that he did nothing to claim his spot in the acct. The other point is Tallmadge from Pitt also didn’t get an auto bid after finishing 4th and beating Oakley, so he will likely get a bid. After that bid is awarded the question is will they give the acc 2 at-large bids?
For Platt you are hoping for the opposite logic to play out. Going into the acct he was on the outside looking in (not ranked in the top 33 wrestlers at the weight). Unlike the 133 pound weight class where there were 3 top 21 ranked wrestlers and 2 mid-20s ranked wrestlers the acc only had 3 top 12 wrestlers ranked at this weight. So in spite of finishing 4th behind 3 highly ranked wrestlers, the acc has no other potential qualifier whose bid Platt could steal. He will likely need 1 or more low ranked wrestlers to have under performed in their conference tournament, and/or some ranked wrestlers to have been hurt and unable to compete with no more likely replacement criteria than Platt’s 4th place acct finish.
If I had to guess, I would guess that we get 1 at-large bid. Oakley seems the more likely, but Platt could be more helpful down the road if he got to experience the ncaat early on. You just never know what will happen. Some years back we had a wrestler that got a bid and was placed in the pigtail match pitting the 32 vs 33 seed. He picked up a pin, with the extra bonus points for the team, before facing the 1 seed in the first round. Even getting to the pigtail match puts you in the experience, and a bonus points for win in pigtails adds the same bonus points as any other match.
Final note on at-large bids is that Carrigan stole the bid awarded to the acc for Augustine from Pitt. Augustine will certainly get a bid, but someone else will not because of Carrigan. To that I say job well done young man.
Adding a post script: Last year we qualified 8 for the ncaat, and this year only 6. Of note is the fact that we lost 3 wrestlers for the season, and all 3 were qualifiers last year. Only 1 of the backups qualified for ncaat, so it is reasonable to think that if they had been healthy we might have again qualified at least 8 wrestlers.
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Agree with all you wrote. Oakley is definitely a possible at-large, but it will be very close. Intermat has a good rundown of who needs at-large bids. According to Intermat rankings, there are 3 guys ranked higher than Oakley that didn't get an auto-bid. In addition, there are two guys ranked lower who were "allocated" a bid for their conference. Oakley was not. That could affect things. As well as Oakley's performance at NCAA last year where I believe he was 0-2.
Platt is probably unlikely. there are only 4 at-larges at 197 and there are 7 guys ranked ahead of Platt that need one.
Platt is probably unlikely. there are only 4 at-larges at 197 and there are 7 guys ranked ahead of Platt that need one.
Looks like we didn't get an at large bid for either guy, a little disappointed but not completely surprised. Brackets should be out tomorrow and will be interesting to see how our guys are seeded and start looking at matchups and paths.
As stated it’s not a huge surprise that neither wrestler got a bid, but there is still a very legitimate question of why did Oakley not get invited. In the ncaa d1 rankings released after the conference tournament, Oakley was ranked 26. That is 5 spots higher than Lopez and 7 spots higher than Willochell, and both of them got at-large bids. I am not saying that Oakley should have gotten in, but the logic for leaving him out is difficult to see. He clearly did not have a great year, and obviously needed to win something at the acct to improve his case. While he is certainly capable of competing at a high level and winning matches at the ncaat, there is little to suggest he would have contributed much to the team score at there.
I will take a closer look at prospects after seeding has been announced, but we have 1 wrestler ranked to lose 2 straight matches and not score. 3 wrestlers are ranked to lose 1 match, win 1 match, and then be eliminated. We have 1 wrestler ranked to lose in the blood round. As noted above the rankings will not necessarily match the committee’s thoughts, so seedings will likely vary some.
I will take a closer look at prospects after seeding has been announced, but we have 1 wrestler ranked to lose 2 straight matches and not score. 3 wrestlers are ranked to lose 1 match, win 1 match, and then be eliminated. We have 1 wrestler ranked to lose in the blood round. As noted above the rankings will not necessarily match the committee’s thoughts, so seedings will likely vary some.
was hoping we would have done a little better in the seeding, obviously going to have to pull some upsets for most of our guys, though Hepner is seeded only one spot off of AA so that is good opportunity. Of interest Spencer Moore got the 18 seed so he and Terukina continue to be neck and neck in how they have performed on the season
Looking ahead at the matchups....
At 125, Terukina has a tough matchup in 6th year / grad student Moran, who only has 5 losses on the season, with 2 being to Lilledahl and 2 to Bouzakis (and the fifth interestingly to Spencer Moore in SV). He is also active, with 3 wins by MD and 8 by TF. If Terukina drops that match, he'll likely get one of the 30-33 seeded wrestlers in the wrestleback. Side note, surprised to see Robinson (NCSU) as a 12 seed here. I think he was 5th ranked going into ACCs and only dropped one match there (though he didn't look good / like his old self against Roller and Terukina).
At 141, Simcox gets another experienced opponent in 21 seed Wells (OK) who is making his third NCAA appearance, and picked up multiple wins in the 2024 and 2025 NCAAs while with Minnesota. If he gets by Wells, he likely sees undefeated Stanich from Lehigh, who was an AA in 2024, finishing 5th, and was 12-1 wrestling unattached in 2025. That'd be a tough one for sure.
At 157, Root drew the 3 seed and 2x AA Shapiro (Cornell), which will of course be difficult. Barring an upset there, he'll at least have a winnable first match in the wrestleback pigtail against the 32 or 33 seed. Side note, tough draw for Washleski to get Watters as an 11 seed. Watters was AA (4th) in 2024 and only has 3 losses, 2x to the 4 seed Larkin and 1x to the 12 seed Zerban. I could see a Watters/Shapiro matchup in the quarters.
At 165, Hepner faces 24 seed and RS-Jr Seefeldt (Penn) who is making his first NCAA appearance, He's coming off an Ivy League tournament where he entered as the 3 seed and dropped his first match against 6 seed from Cornell (who he'd MDd 15-2 previously) and then wrestled back to finish 3rd. I like Hepner to advance here. If he does, he probably gets RS-Sr Bianchi (UALR) who was a 2025 AA, likely wrestling for a chance to face Mesenbrink in the quarters.
At 174, Carrigan faces conference opponent Singleton who has defeated him twice this year (8-3 and 11-2). Maybe the familiarity will help. Unless he pulls off the upset, he'll get loser of the 11/22 match (both of which are multiple past NCAA qualifiers) and hope to avoid 0-2.
Finally, at 184, Dailey faces a RS-Sr and 2x qualifier in 15 seed Perrine (Ohio) who is coming off a MD in the MAC championships against the 25 seed from GMU. He's mowed through MAC opponents. Three of his four losses were at the Cliff Keen back in December, to the 20 seed Soldano (OK) and 2x to 13 seed Dean (ISU). If Dailey gets by him, he'll surely get RS-Fr Sinclair from Mizzou, who only has 1 loss on the year, to Ferrari (Iowa) in tiebreakers. If Dailey loses in first round, he'll see the 31 seed.
So, certainly never easy at NCAAs but it seems like most of our guys will have winnable matches at one point or another. Hopefully at least Simcox, Hepner, and Dailey can get by their first round opponents, and we'll also pull off some upsets here and there.
At 125, Terukina has a tough matchup in 6th year / grad student Moran, who only has 5 losses on the season, with 2 being to Lilledahl and 2 to Bouzakis (and the fifth interestingly to Spencer Moore in SV). He is also active, with 3 wins by MD and 8 by TF. If Terukina drops that match, he'll likely get one of the 30-33 seeded wrestlers in the wrestleback. Side note, surprised to see Robinson (NCSU) as a 12 seed here. I think he was 5th ranked going into ACCs and only dropped one match there (though he didn't look good / like his old self against Roller and Terukina).
At 141, Simcox gets another experienced opponent in 21 seed Wells (OK) who is making his third NCAA appearance, and picked up multiple wins in the 2024 and 2025 NCAAs while with Minnesota. If he gets by Wells, he likely sees undefeated Stanich from Lehigh, who was an AA in 2024, finishing 5th, and was 12-1 wrestling unattached in 2025. That'd be a tough one for sure.
At 157, Root drew the 3 seed and 2x AA Shapiro (Cornell), which will of course be difficult. Barring an upset there, he'll at least have a winnable first match in the wrestleback pigtail against the 32 or 33 seed. Side note, tough draw for Washleski to get Watters as an 11 seed. Watters was AA (4th) in 2024 and only has 3 losses, 2x to the 4 seed Larkin and 1x to the 12 seed Zerban. I could see a Watters/Shapiro matchup in the quarters.
At 165, Hepner faces 24 seed and RS-Jr Seefeldt (Penn) who is making his first NCAA appearance, He's coming off an Ivy League tournament where he entered as the 3 seed and dropped his first match against 6 seed from Cornell (who he'd MDd 15-2 previously) and then wrestled back to finish 3rd. I like Hepner to advance here. If he does, he probably gets RS-Sr Bianchi (UALR) who was a 2025 AA, likely wrestling for a chance to face Mesenbrink in the quarters.
At 174, Carrigan faces conference opponent Singleton who has defeated him twice this year (8-3 and 11-2). Maybe the familiarity will help. Unless he pulls off the upset, he'll get loser of the 11/22 match (both of which are multiple past NCAA qualifiers) and hope to avoid 0-2.
Finally, at 184, Dailey faces a RS-Sr and 2x qualifier in 15 seed Perrine (Ohio) who is coming off a MD in the MAC championships against the 25 seed from GMU. He's mowed through MAC opponents. Three of his four losses were at the Cliff Keen back in December, to the 20 seed Soldano (OK) and 2x to 13 seed Dean (ISU). If Dailey gets by him, he'll surely get RS-Fr Sinclair from Mizzou, who only has 1 loss on the year, to Ferrari (Iowa) in tiebreakers. If Dailey loses in first round, he'll see the 31 seed.
So, certainly never easy at NCAAs but it seems like most of our guys will have winnable matches at one point or another. Hopefully at least Simcox, Hepner, and Dailey can get by their first round opponents, and we'll also pull off some upsets here and there.
Thanks ivyheel. Great information. If they wrestle to seed, we will score roughly 5 team points. If each wrestler gets 1 extra win over what is expected based on seeding, the we will score roughly 14 team points. Obviously most of the difference comes from extra wins by Hepner and Simcox, as their seeding suggest that hey will lose in the blood round. Terukina and Dailey would have to win 3 matches beyond their seeded expectation to get past the blood round and score significant extra team points.
Separate from what it does for team score it, making All American can be a springboard for further success, especially with young wrestlers as it can be a huge confidence boost. Even with a good tournament from multiple people we are unlikely to have a team score we would be happy with, but it could set us up for success next year if some of our guys have some success and can carry that momentum into next season
Happy to see the team heading in a positive direction.
4 freshmen ncaat qualifiers. Most ever at UNC
I am quoting ivyheel, as I thought his analysis was very good. I will add some perspective to his comments, after going over some broad observations first.
Tech qualified all 10 wrestlers for the ncaat, followed by Stanford and Pitt with 8 wrestlers. Pitt got 3 of the 4 at-large bids for the acc, otherwise they auto-qualified just 5. Note that dook got the 4th at-large bid. Tech and Stanford should finish high at the ncaat, and state will likely do well with Trumble leading the way for their 7 qualifiers. We had the 6 qualifiers, followed by UVa with 3 and dook with just the 1.
Last year the tournament team results had the 21 team scoring 20 team points. For perspective a single champion will score 20 points or more (4 advancement points and 16 placement points + any bonus point wins). By contrast an 8th place finish will qualify as an AA, and score 5-6 team points. With our top 2 wrestlers seeded to lose in the blood round, we are likely to finish out of the top 30. But this is the ncaat, and there are always upsets and surprises. Some due to nerves and pressure. Seniors tighten up knowing this is their last shot, and freshmen get overwhelmed. Then again experience generally works to the wrestlers advantage, and occasionally freshmen come in with nothing to lose and rise to the occasion. How will our wrestlers react, I cannot say. I will point out that they seemed ready to wrestle last week, and that is a good sign. Seeding is important, but if wrestlers are within 5 seeding spots of each other that could easily be a virtually even match. A difference of 10 spots typically becomes more of a certain win for the higher seed.
Terukina is a multiple year qualifier, and hopefully the experience is a help to his preparation. Moran is seeded 5 spots higher, but it should be noted that he lost in SV to Spencer Moore on January 30. If Terukina wins he will likely face #3 Bouzakis from tOHSU. If he loses he should face either the 30, 32, or 33 seeded wrestler in his first consolation round match (the pigtail loser, from the 32/33 seeds wrestles the 30 seed to see who faces the loser of Terukina's first match). According to his seed, Terukina should win 1 match for 0.5 team points. I think he is capable of winning 3-4 matches, but I will be pleasantly surprised if he wins more than 2.
Simcox is seeded 12 as a freshman, meaning he is a wildcard. As ivyheel pointed out he got a tough draw from the 21 seed Wells from Oklahoma. Against common opponents they have had similar results. If he wins this match he is rewarded with a match against #5 Stanich from Lehigh. A loss sends him to the consolations against #28 Manville. If this happens he has a chance to run several matches in consolations and should be able to settle in and make a run. According to seed he is supposed to win 3 matches, but I think he is capable of winning 5 and making AA if things go his way.
At the 30 seed, Root is expected to lose 2 straight, except that if he loses the first match he has the consolation pigtail match against the loser of the pigtail match between the 32 and 33 seed. Because he gets this pigtail match he is expected to lose, win, then lose his elimination match in the first full round of consolations (likely against #19 Owens from Columbia). If he wins his first match, he likely gets Miller from Tech in the round of 16. I like Root's style, and I think he has a chance to get up to 3 wins if he gets going.
Hepner is seeded #9, 1 spot out of AA status. After a rough stretch, he looked good in the acct. Like Simcox he drew a tough first round match for his seed. Their record against common opponents is similar as well. A win gets him a match against #8 Bianchi from Little Rock, and a loss gets him a rematch against Church from Tech. They split matches during the season. Hepner is supposed to win 3, but is capable of winning 5-6 matches if he is ready.
Carrigan, #27 seed, is once again my wrestler to watch. He has a tough first match against Singleton from state, #6 seed. Drawing Singleton in the first round might actually be lucky him, as it will be the 3rd time they have wrestled and all the pressure will be on Singleton. Carrigan has won 4 out of his last 5 matches I believe, with the sole loss against Singleton in the acct. The average score differential in his 2 losses to Singleton has been 7 points, so I would not pencil in a win. That said, both Carrigan and Singleton split matches against Augustine (Pitt). In the end it may be the best first round matchup he could have gotten with a #27 seed. A win against Singleton likely matches him up with Gaitan (ISU) in the second round, and a loss pits him against #22 Bauman (Pur) in the consolation first round. With a #27 seed he is supposed to lose 2 in a row, but I think he is capable of winning 2. Even 1 win coming into the lineup after 2 wrestlers went down would be huge for this young man.
Dailey has perhaps been the most consistent of the young wrestlers, and he was rewarded with the #18 seed. Not bad for a freshman, but still expected to lose, win, and lose in the tournament. The #18 vs #15, Perrine from Ohio is about as close a pairing as you can get (behind the 16 vs 17 matchup) in the first round. If he is fortunate enough to win the first match, he gets to wrestle the #2 seed, Sinclair (Mizz). A loss would likely match him up with #31 Ruston (UNCO). As he is only expected to win 1 match, I think he is capable of winning 3-4 if he is ready and a little lucky.
This team is not supposed to be a good tournament team and lost 3 veteran qualifiers during the season. I will be very pleased if they can slip into the top 30. After being a little too optimistic last season, I am trying to keep perspective. Hoping that the good acct performance is a good sign that someone, or a couple of our wrestlers will come in ready to announce themselves as better than seeded.
Sorry for another long post, but the team should already be in the broader Cleveland area and getting ready for Thursday afternoon. It would be wonderful if at least 1 of them had to make weight on Saturday (3rd day in a row). This is a fun time of the year, though last year was a little disheartening. I am hopeful that my expectations can stay in check, and their expectations are higher that anyone else thinks they should be. Go Heels.
Hepner seems like the most likely Heel to sneak in bonus point(s) in an early match or two.
Based on wrestling style Hepner wrestling like he did in early January is probably the most likely candidate to come up with a bonus point win. Because Simcox is very tough on top, he is another candidate for bonus point wins. Both drew tough first round opponents, and the fact is it’s tough to get bonus points at the ncaat. Another possible source of bonus points would be from Root. On the assumption that he loses against the #3 seed in the first round, he will go to the pigtail match for consolations and wrestle the loser from the pigtail match for the #32 vs #33 seeds. This is a situational opportunity that other wrestlers won’t have.
Another way to look at bonus points is any win that is unexpected is a bonus for the team. Carrigan is not going to be favored in any of his matches based on seeding. Root will only be a slight favorite in the consolation pigtail match. Dailey and Terukina are expected to lose in the first round, win in their first consolation match, and then lose their next match based on seeding. This yields them a half team point each, so anything better than that is a bonus for the team.
Saw a post that they worked out in Parkersburg WV on the way to Cleveland. I am assuming they head to Cleveland today, but they may have traveled after their workout yesterday. The next task is making weight for weigh-ins, and then getting ready to wrestle. It all starts in just over 24 hours.
Exciting time of year, for sure. Ivyheel and 81Heel did a great job of analyzing the first couple rounds. I'm excited to see what our wrestlers can do. The ACCT performance was really good and indicates that possibly we are peaking at the right time.
Particularly interested to see how the young guys respond and hoping at least one of the four can significantly outperform their seed. I read that this is the first time ever UNC has 4 Freshmen qualifiers. Simcox is tough to beat, has a lot of tricks up his sleeve, and seems to have gotten better on bottom which is important. Completely agree that Singleton is the best draw Carrigan could have hoped for as such a low seed. I don't think he'll win but having wrestled Singleton twice already and generally stayed in the match makes it a possibility. He's got to be very confident right now.
Finally, one tidbit on Hepner. He went to high school with his first round opponent. This is probably a slight disadvantage as Hepner has a very unorthodox style which could cause problems for guys that aren't familiar. That won't be the case with Seefeldt since they were probably training partners for a year or two at least.
Particularly interested to see how the young guys respond and hoping at least one of the four can significantly outperform their seed. I read that this is the first time ever UNC has 4 Freshmen qualifiers. Simcox is tough to beat, has a lot of tricks up his sleeve, and seems to have gotten better on bottom which is important. Completely agree that Singleton is the best draw Carrigan could have hoped for as such a low seed. I don't think he'll win but having wrestled Singleton twice already and generally stayed in the match makes it a possibility. He's got to be very confident right now.
Finally, one tidbit on Hepner. He went to high school with his first round opponent. This is probably a slight disadvantage as Hepner has a very unorthodox style which could cause problems for guys that aren't familiar. That won't be the case with Seefeldt since they were probably training partners for a year or two at least.
Thank you all for your input and analysis. This is always one of my favorite weekends of the year, and I'll definitely have multiple TVs set up for the next three days.
Just wanted to add that it's a shame that Oakley won't be competing this weekend. I was looking back over his results this season, and he didn't have it easy, but he won a lot of matches. He dropped a couple matches at the Southeast Open way back in November but after that he was pretty solid - forfeit win over No 13 Serrano (NCU), decision over No 19 Andrick (WVU), and wins vs Navy, Davidson, Virginia, Duke, plus four wins at the Soldier Salute. His dual losses were to No 8 Van Dee (NEB), No 26 Farber (No IA), Redding (NCSU), No 30 Tallmadge (PITT), and No 8 Knox (STAN). Going 0-2 in ACC didn't help, but I still thought he'd get an at large over a guy like Willochell (who was pinned by our FR Botello at the Soldier Salute, and also lost twice to Andrick, who Oakley had beaten) or Lopez (SIUE). I suppose he had chances and perhaps should've beaten guys like Tallmadge or Redding at least once, but still tough to get no bid from last year's 12 seed (who was 13 ranked at 133 coming into the year).
Just wanted to add that it's a shame that Oakley won't be competing this weekend. I was looking back over his results this season, and he didn't have it easy, but he won a lot of matches. He dropped a couple matches at the Southeast Open way back in November but after that he was pretty solid - forfeit win over No 13 Serrano (NCU), decision over No 19 Andrick (WVU), and wins vs Navy, Davidson, Virginia, Duke, plus four wins at the Soldier Salute. His dual losses were to No 8 Van Dee (NEB), No 26 Farber (No IA), Redding (NCSU), No 30 Tallmadge (PITT), and No 8 Knox (STAN). Going 0-2 in ACC didn't help, but I still thought he'd get an at large over a guy like Willochell (who was pinned by our FR Botello at the Soldier Salute, and also lost twice to Andrick, who Oakley had beaten) or Lopez (SIUE). I suppose he had chances and perhaps should've beaten guys like Tallmadge or Redding at least once, but still tough to get no bid from last year's 12 seed (who was 13 ranked at 133 coming into the year).
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Root is on deck on mat 6.
For anyone interested Moore and McNeil both won their first round matches.
We need Terukina and Simcox to turn it up in consolations.
For anyone interested Moore and McNeil both won their first round matches.
We need Terukina and Simcox to turn it up in consolations.
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