UNC Wilmington Preview and Game Thread

[3397char]

That loss to Louisville is going to hurt for a long time Jriv.

Missing layups drive me crazy UNC76, It should be something like 95% makes at worst.

Throw in shooting Free Throws at 75% minimum and it is a big jump for this team.

Being good at layups, seldom throwing the ball away and making FT's would elevate this years team to a very high level.

IMO it is the next step to being a great team.

The completion percentage on layups in D1 WBB is 54%

ShotQuality: Real-Time Sports Intelligence

AI-powered real-time sports intelligence for sportsbooks, syndicates, and prediction markets.

shotquality.com

Obviously defining what a layup is is debatable , but 95% no matter how you define it is never going to happen on any team over a season.

 

[6string]

The completion percentage on layups in D1 WBB is 54%

ShotQuality: Real-Time Sports Intelligence

AI-powered real-time sports intelligence for sportsbooks, syndicates, and prediction markets.

shotquality.com

Obviously defining what a layup is is debatable , but 95% no matter how you define it is never going to happen on any team over a season.

Certainly understand what you are saying but when you are ahead of the defense and just throw the ball off the backboard like you are trying to knock it down, that could be corrected. That has happened.

 

[tarboy]

54% on layups is terrible. Wonder what the top 5 teams do on lay ups? That is the neighborhood we want to be part of.

Maybe a layup would be defined as a shot released from the hand within 3 feet of the basket.

 

[3397char]

54% on layups is terrible. Wonder what the top 5 teams do on lay ups? That is the neighborhood we want to be part of.

Maybe a layup would be defined as a shot released from the hand within 3 feet of the basket.

The site above further breaks down layups into the following categories:

Layup shot Type	NCAAM	NCAAW	NBA
Driving (primary ball handler takes the shot)	47%	43%	50%
Non-Driving (primary ball handler post-up or breakaway)	57%	54%	59%
Cuts (dynamic pass received for shot)	64%	63%	63%
Non-Cuts (stationary pass received for open shot, post up or off. rebound)	54%	53%	54%

From other context in the post it seems clear that this would not include every shot in the paint: high post shots would be mid-range jumpers. But probably does include every variety of a low-post shot.

It seems like the main differentiator they do not include is "contested" versus "uncontested" But I assume you would see the most uncontested shots in the Non-driving and Non-cut categories

This site says they use AI to analyze many thousands of games and create the categories. Who knows how accurate that is. Just a guess but I imagine for NCAAW that means they have more access to P4 games than Gof5 just based on TV/streaming availability.

 

[tarboy]

Wow I would never have thought those low stats would exist.

I still think a good team would make most of their layups.

Low turnovers, high % makes on layups, decent FT % 70%+, and good defense seems to be the winning formula.

 

[tarboy]

Just rewatched UNC vs UNCW UNC 12 out of 21 on layups in the first half. 57%.

If fouled I do not count the attempt unless we make the shot

2nd half = 5 for 8 62.5%

Game 17 out of 29 58.6%

 

[tarboy]

Just rewatched the Boston U game,

We made 11 out of 14 layups for 78.6%

That was more like winning basketball.

 

[tarboy]

I just rewatched UNC vs Louisville thru regulation

We made 11 out of 17 layups for 64.7%

I did not watch OT. Too painful.

 

[Jriv23]

Thanks for doing this tarboy. If we would have made half of those layups we would have won. That is a lot of layups to be missing for college level players. Middle school I can see it.

 

[tarboy]

Glad to run it up Jriv. I plan to do all the games eventually.

If we had made 80% vs Lville we would have coasted to a win.

I did not count them but L-Ville made a higher percentage of layups than we did.

 

[Carolina151]

Glad to run it up Jriv. I plan to do all the games eventually.

If we had made 80% vs Lville we would have coasted to a win.

I did not count them but L-Ville made a higher percentage of layups than we did.

Just out of curiosity, are you including multiple missed layups on each possession in the overall total?

For example, say we missed 4 lay-ups- but 3 were on one possession after collecting 2 offensive boards. That’s -4 points instead of a total of -8 if just one on four different possessions.

 

[tarboy]

I am counting every shot unless fouled in the act. Every shot gets counted by the game stats. A few times we missed an easy layup but got fouled. I do not count those shots but it could have been an and one instead of 2 free throws.

 

[tarboy]

Did UNC vs Texas game.

UNC 18 out of 21 on layups 85.7%

Texas 8 0ut of 9 layups 88.8%

We shot great on layups but poorly on other shots.

Texas made lots of 10 to 12 footers

We made 8 unforced turnovers.

 

[tarboy]

For these 4 games 57 made out of 81 attempts.

70.4%

I will try to grade out the rest of the games

I do not have film on Cancun or ACCNX games.

I would like to see us get to 80% but that will be challenging.

75% on layups, 70% on FT's and 35% on 3"s would probably put us top 10 JMO

 

[Jriv23]

Thanks for the stats tarboy. The Texas game showed us that this team can be lay-up if they stay focus on the task that is at hand.

 

[tarboy]

U R WELCOME Jriv.

Add in the UNCG game. 22 out of 25 layups made. 88% ! Toomey 8 for 8.

6 unforced Turnovers

79 out of 106 = 74.5% Pretty darn good. We have to keep it up against conference teams.

No UNCG's left.

 

[tarboy]

Just graded out the UCLA game
UNC: 11 out of 17 64.7%
UCLA 16 our of 20 80%

UNC for all the games I have access to our grade is now 87-123 70.7%

Toomey, Aarnisalo, Henderson and Brooks are consistently high % on making layups.

Speaks well for the future as they are all young.

I am hoping we can get up to 75% for this year.

75% layups, 65% free throws and 35% 3pts would be a winning formula for this team this year IMO.

 

[kjcooper]

Agree with most of the percentages except FT%, it would nice if they could convert 70 to 75% on FT's that would put them in a great situations to win some tight games going forward.

 

[tarboy]

I totally agree with you. But I do not think we will get there this year,

Not with our bad start.

Maybe we can do 70% in conference play this season. I hope so.

We need to.