So I've brought it up before, but it appears UM is going to fight hard not to vacate any games despite numerous ineligible players hitting the field for them. So, I decided to take a look at what's at risk.
For starters, the NCAA only stated that two sets of players participated while ineligible: the second player to get a loaner truck, and the ACT trio.
After reading through everything again, I think are two more sets of potentially ineligible players just from this NOA:
1. Whomever brought their whole posse to Oxford and had their visits paid for, plus probably received a cash handshake (assumed to be Tunsil from all accounts).
2. The Memphis recruits, now known to include Christian Morris and Herbert Moore.
If Potential Group 1 is ruled ineligible, the following games are affected:
1. Every game of 2013 except the Music City Bowl
2. Every game of 2014 except Auburn (L) and Presbyterian
3. The 2015 games against TAMU, Auburn, Arkansas(L), LSU, State, and Sugar Bowl
If Potential Group 2 is ruled ineligible, the following games are affected:
2014 - ULL, Presbyterian, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas (L), Peach Bowl (L)
2015 - UT Martin, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Memphis (L), TAMU
Since the NCAA didn't mention it, I'm guessing the chances of these players being ruled ineligible is low. Not sure exactly why, though.
Meanwhile, there are two groups definitely ruled ineligible, and UM is appealing: the second player to get a loaner truck, and the ACT trio.
Message board rumors are that Definite Group 1 consists of CJ Hampton.
If true, the following games are affected:
2014 LSU (L), Auburn (L), Presbyterian, Arkansas (L), State, Peach Bowl (L)
For Definite Group 2, things aren't quite as locked down on potential inclusions, but I did some quick comparisons to the 2010 signing class.
One player listed in the NOA competed in the 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons, and that someone has a very short last name.
5 players meet Criteria 1:
Vincent Sanders (redshirted in 2010, so probably not him)
Brishen Mathews
Chase Hughes (great academics, so probably not him)
Jared Duke
Jeff Scott
Applying Criteria 2, that leaves us with Scott and Duke as possibles.
Jeff Scott played in 10 games each year in 2010 and 2011, in every game in 2012 except Central Arkansas, in 8 games in 2013 (missed LSU, Idaho, Arkansas, and State plus one more not listed).
Duke played in every game in 2011, 2012, and 2013, plus the final 9 games of 2010.
Note that message board rumors pointed to Florida recruits taking the ACT in Waynesboro, which would align with Scott.
Either way, I expect to see the 2012 and 2014 Egg Bowls on the list of vacated games unless UM can convince the NCAA to back off. Their logical arguments are pretty weak to me, but I'm biased.
The 2015 Egg Bowl will probably hinge on the draft night investigation. I'd love to see these as forfeits, particularly since the school was repeatedly at fault with the loaner cars, but I'm not holding my breath.
Hugh Freeze's official record against State will likely soon be 1-1, or hopefully 0-1.
For starters, the NCAA only stated that two sets of players participated while ineligible: the second player to get a loaner truck, and the ACT trio.
After reading through everything again, I think are two more sets of potentially ineligible players just from this NOA:
1. Whomever brought their whole posse to Oxford and had their visits paid for, plus probably received a cash handshake (assumed to be Tunsil from all accounts).
2. The Memphis recruits, now known to include Christian Morris and Herbert Moore.
If Potential Group 1 is ruled ineligible, the following games are affected:
1. Every game of 2013 except the Music City Bowl
2. Every game of 2014 except Auburn (L) and Presbyterian
3. The 2015 games against TAMU, Auburn, Arkansas(L), LSU, State, and Sugar Bowl
If Potential Group 2 is ruled ineligible, the following games are affected:
2014 - ULL, Presbyterian, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas (L), Peach Bowl (L)
2015 - UT Martin, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Memphis (L), TAMU
Since the NCAA didn't mention it, I'm guessing the chances of these players being ruled ineligible is low. Not sure exactly why, though.
Meanwhile, there are two groups definitely ruled ineligible, and UM is appealing: the second player to get a loaner truck, and the ACT trio.
Message board rumors are that Definite Group 1 consists of CJ Hampton.
If true, the following games are affected:
2014 LSU (L), Auburn (L), Presbyterian, Arkansas (L), State, Peach Bowl (L)
For Definite Group 2, things aren't quite as locked down on potential inclusions, but I did some quick comparisons to the 2010 signing class.
One player listed in the NOA competed in the 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons, and that someone has a very short last name.
5 players meet Criteria 1:
Vincent Sanders (redshirted in 2010, so probably not him)
Brishen Mathews
Chase Hughes (great academics, so probably not him)
Jared Duke
Jeff Scott
Applying Criteria 2, that leaves us with Scott and Duke as possibles.
Jeff Scott played in 10 games each year in 2010 and 2011, in every game in 2012 except Central Arkansas, in 8 games in 2013 (missed LSU, Idaho, Arkansas, and State plus one more not listed).
Duke played in every game in 2011, 2012, and 2013, plus the final 9 games of 2010.
Note that message board rumors pointed to Florida recruits taking the ACT in Waynesboro, which would align with Scott.
Either way, I expect to see the 2012 and 2014 Egg Bowls on the list of vacated games unless UM can convince the NCAA to back off. Their logical arguments are pretty weak to me, but I'm biased.
The 2015 Egg Bowl will probably hinge on the draft night investigation. I'd love to see these as forfeits, particularly since the school was repeatedly at fault with the loaner cars, but I'm not holding my breath.
Hugh Freeze's official record against State will likely soon be 1-1, or hopefully 0-1.
