UK player stat projections for next year

JonathanW2

Senior
Aug 6, 2025
579
873
93
My personal estimates, assuming we don't add anyone else (which we need to add 1 more scorer).

26-27Ave
YrPosMinc-minpf-minsf-min2g-minpg-minPtsRebAstBlk
Moreno (7'0)2C272713822
O.N'Diaye (6'11)1PF/C242412612
K.Williams (6'8)3F2422210411
Wilkins (6'5)2G302461344
Diallo (6'4)3PG30301445
Kepnang (6'11)4+C12124501
Potter (7'0)3*C1100
McBride (6'7)4PF1414531
B.Hawthorne (6'9)1*F12 12 52
Noah (6'6)3F6631
J.Morton (6'4)4G1515622
D.Williams (6'2)1PG44101
Z.Hawthorne (6'1)1G1100
200​
40​
40​
40​
40​
40​
86​
39​
17​
6​
 

TeamAmerica

All-Conference
Jul 3, 2025
1,360
4,932
113
My personal estimates, assuming we don't add anyone else (which we need to add 1 more scorer).

26-27Ave
YrPosMinc-minpf-minsf-min2g-minpg-minPtsRebAstBlk
Moreno (7'0)2C272713822
O.N'Diaye (6'11)1PF/C242412612
K.Williams (6'8)3F2422210411
Wilkins (6'5)2G302461344
Diallo (6'4)3PG30301445
Kepnang (6'11)4+C12124501
Potter (7'0)3*C1100
McBride (6'7)4PF1414531
B.Hawthorne (6'9)1*F121252
Noah (6'6)3F6631
J.Morton (6'4)4G1515622
D.Williams (6'2)1PG44101
Z.Hawthorne (6'1)1G1100
200​
40​
40​
40​
40​
40​
86​
39​
17​
6​
86 points a game is pretty ambitious.
 

BlueCane

Redshirt
Apr 21, 2026
15
12
3
We won't score 86 points per game. Only 11 teams scored more than 86/game last season. The prior season, only ONE team scored more than 86/game, and that was Bama.
Totally agree. No where close. We will struggle to score. There will be a lot games where the score is 20 to 8 at the 10 minute mark in the first half.
 
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Doc4UK!

All-Conference
Aug 14, 2003
2,818
1,819
113
I also disagree that we will not score. This team has better offensive numbers on paper than last year's team . Zoom, Wilkins, and McBride averaged more than anyone we have brought in via the portal in the past and will likely all average in double figures. Hawthorne, Williams, and Moreno have potential to score in double figures as well. Adding one more proven "bucket getter" would be nice. I think we average 78 pts per game and hope that our defense and physicality is much improved. That will be the key to our success
 
Aug 23, 2024
2,333
5,250
113
We won't score 86 points per game. Only 11 teams scored more than 86/game last season. The prior season, only ONE team scored more than 86/game, and that was Bama.
We did average 84.4 ppg in the '24-'25 season so I wouldn't consider it outlandish necessarily. 86 may be a bit optimistic but I can see us getting close to that realistically.
 

Noledynasty2490

All-American
Jul 31, 2022
4,360
7,960
113
N'Diaye is not starting over McBride IMO

If he's not better than Mcbride that's an issue
 

Noledynasty2490

The Battles's End Collective Member

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#1 cat fan

Senior
May 7, 2009
386
438
63
My personal estimates, assuming we don't add anyone else (which we need to add 1 more scorer).

26-27Ave
YrPosMinc-minpf-minsf-min2g-minpg-minPtsRebAstBlk
Moreno (7'0)2C272713822
O.N'Diaye (6'11)1PF/C242412612
K.Williams (6'8)3F2422210411
Wilkins (6'5)2G302461344
Diallo (6'4)3PG30301445
Kepnang (6'11)4+C12124501
Potter (7'0)3*C1100
McBride (6'7)4PF1414531
B.Hawthorne (6'9)1*F121252
Noah (6'6)3F6631
J.Morton (6'4)4G1515622
D.Williams (6'2)1PG44101
Z.Hawthorne (6'1)1G1100
200​
40​
40​
40​
40​
40​
86​
39​
17​
6​
Wilkins will be the top scorer on the team. He will be 16/18 point guy.
I think Diallo will be around the 14/15 mark
Hoping to get 30 from the other 3 starters
Then 18 or 19 from the bench
 
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Padsfs07

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2013
3,782
3,566
108
We won't score 86 points per game. Only 11 teams scored more than 86/game last season. The prior season, only ONE team scored more than 86/game, and that was Bama.

The sum is always 5-10 points higher than the team PPG.

Last years was 82.5 vs 80 without Lowe and Quaintance. It’s usually a bigger spread though.
 

TeamAmerica

All-Conference
Jul 3, 2025
1,360
4,932
113
The sum is always 5-10 points higher than the team PPG.

Last years was 82.5 vs 80 without Lowe and Quaintance. It’s usually a bigger spread though.
usually, but he has the minutes =200 which would be 5 positions at 40 minutes each.
 

moses1uk

All-Conference
Jun 16, 2005
1,065
1,833
113
If he's not better than Mcbride that's an issue
Marisa Tomei Fact GIF
 

Padsfs07

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2013
3,782
3,566
108
usually, but he has the minutes =200 which would be 5 positions at 40 minutes each.

But he's not showing any missed games. For instance, Noah got 3 PPG this year but missed 9 games so 27 points aren't added to the total. The 25/26 team averaged 207 MPG (plus I removed the WOs, Lowe, and Quaintance, which puts us at 245MPG and 96.5 PPG)
 
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CatManFromCa

Sophomore
Jan 8, 2026
82
145
32
Zoom, Wilkins, and McBride all averaged more than any portal guy we’ve brought in the last few years. That’s not potential that’s production.
That’s three double‑figure scorers walking through the door on day one.

We have six legit scoring threats. Six.
But somehow the doubters think we’re going to struggle to put the ball in the basket.🙄

I’m calling it now: 78 points per game.
Not a dream. Not a reach.
A realistic number based on who these dudes already are. The doubters can stay nervous! The GM BATTALION IS WORKING! THIS TEAM WILL EARN POPE A 4TH SEASON!
 

Noledynasty2490

All-American
Jul 31, 2022
4,360
7,960
113
Zoom, Wilkins, and McBride all averaged more than any portal guy we’ve brought in the last few years. That’s not potential that’s production.
That’s three double‑figure scorers walking through the door on day one.

We have six legit scoring threats. Six.
But somehow the doubters think we’re going to struggle to put the ball in the basket.🙄

I’m calling it now: 78 points per game.
Not a dream. Not a reach.
A realistic number based on who these dudes already are. The doubters can stay nervous! The GM BATTALION IS WORKING! THIS TEAM WILL EARN POPE A 4TH SEASON!

At Washington, Furman and James Madison.
 

Noledynasty2490

The Battles's End Collective Member

The Battle's End enables FSU athletes to maximize the value of their NIL. Click Here to Sign Up

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Anon412769

Sophomore
May 9, 2026
77
112
33
Add in 18 a game for Momcilovic
And 17 for Graves. If my math is correct that's 121 pg. OKC Thunder got nothing on us
Zoom, Wilkins, and McBride all averaged more than any portal guy we’ve brought in the last few years. That’s not potential that’s production.
That’s three double‑figure scorers walking through the door on day one.

We have six legit scoring threats. Six.
But somehow the doubters think we’re going to struggle to put the ball in the basket.🙄

I’m calling it now: 78 points per game.
Not a dream. Not a reach.
A realistic number based on who these dudes already are. The doubters can stay nervous! The GM BATTALION IS WORKING! THIS TEAM WILL EARN POPE A 4TH SEASON!
And a lifetime contract after he's the first to run the table since Bob Knight
 
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Padsfs07

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2013
3,782
3,566
108
These numbers kind of remind me of a few teams:

99/00 (5 seed, Prince/Bogans/Magloire)
05/06 (8 seed, Rondo/Crawford/Morris)
13/14 (8 seed, Harrison/Young/Randle)
18/19 (2 seed, Herro/Johnson/Washington)

Without a dominate scorer or two, or an elite 6th man, we haven't had great success with a spread the offense around style.
 

Noledynasty2490

All-American
Jul 31, 2022
4,360
7,960
113
One of the dumber things I've read. Oweh, Robinson, Brea, Carr, Sarr, Travis, Reeves, Amari, Mitchell... all double digits and mostly from P5 schools too.

Whats dumb? What he said or my response?
 

Noledynasty2490

The Battles's End Collective Member

The Battle's End enables FSU athletes to maximize the value of their NIL. Click Here to Sign Up

Aug 23, 2024
2,333
5,250
113
These numbers kind of remind me of a few teams:

99/00 (5 seed, Prince/Bogans/Magloire)
05/06 (8 seed, Rondo/Crawford/Morris)
13/14 (8 seed, Harrison/Young/Randle)
18/19 (2 seed, Herro/Johnson/Washington)

Without a dominate scorer or two, or an elite 6th man, we haven't had great success with a spread the offense around style.
2012? 2014? 2015?
 

BlueSince92

All-Conference
Jul 2, 2025
10,757
3,385
230
We did average 84.4 ppg in the '24-'25 season so I wouldn't consider it outlandish necessarily. 86 may be a bit optimistic but I can see us getting close to that realistically.
I agree it's not unreasonable at all in Pope's system when it's manned correctly. What I'm worried about is, it was manned correctly in '24-'25, was not manned correctly in '25-'26, and I'm starting to get vibes from Pope he'll close things down this year before it's manned correctly again. (Which would be hard to do since he was swimming upstream so much in terms of building a roster at all this year, so I'll definitely be impressed if he pulls it off. Minimum one more dog and one more perimeter threat on top of that is what it would take imo.)
 

Anon412769

Sophomore
May 9, 2026
77
112
33
These numbers kind of remind me of a few teams:

99/00 (5 seed, Prince/Bogans/Magloire)
05/06 (8 seed, Rondo/Crawford/Morris)
13/14 (8 seed, Harrison/Young/Randle)
18/19 (2 seed, Herro/Johnson/Washington)

Without a dominate scorer or two, or an elite 6th man, we haven't had great success with a spread the offense around style.
DOMINANT.
 

HipTer

Senior
Apr 11, 2012
1,078
817
113
My personal estimates, assuming we don't add anyone else (which we need to add 1 more scorer).

26-27Ave
YrPosMinc-minpf-minsf-min2g-minpg-minPtsRebAstBlk
Moreno (7'0)2C272713822
O.N'Diaye (6'11)1PF/C242412612
K.Williams (6'8)3F2422210411
Wilkins (6'5)2G302461344
Diallo (6'4)3PG30301445
Kepnang (6'11)4+C12124501
Potter (7'0)3*C1100
McBride (6'7)4PF1414531
B.Hawthorne (6'9)1*F121252
Noah (6'6)3F6631
J.Morton (6'4)4G1515622
D.Williams (6'2)1PG44101
Z.Hawthorne (6'1)1G1100
200​
40​
40​
40​
40​
40​
86​
39​
17​
6​
Respect the work. Also makes for a good jumping off point for discussion - hopefully from posters who watch some games or at least some lengthy highlights. We don't have to be right with opinions about what a player may produce this season, but to engage one ought to bring more knowledge than "rankings" "Pope can't coach them" or even probably any opinion about Pope.
 

JonathanW2

Senior
Aug 6, 2025
579
873
93
We did average 84.4 ppg in the '24-'25 season so I wouldn't consider it outlandish necessarily. 86 may be a bit optimistic but I can see us getting close to that realistically.
They are also forgetting these are obviously rounded for each player. Thus without rounding that could be anywhere in the 80’s
 

HipTer

Senior
Apr 11, 2012
1,078
817
113
I wouldn’t be surprised if B. Hawthorne develops into a major contributor at the 3/4 by mid-February, if not sooner. He seems to have the physical tools - both skills and measurables - and unlike a typical freshman, he also has a year of practice against college players and another year of physical development behind him. I think that gives him a real chance to become a player that impacts winning this season.

I'm basing that on the available evidence: his shooting, the way he handles and moves with the ball in high school videos, and what respected observers have said about his performance in practices and scrimmages. That’s still less than game evidence, so I could very easily be wrong. But it's more supported by evidence than those dismissing the possibility outright.
 

RedwoodHigh

All-Conference
Nov 18, 2025
822
1,186
93
I wouldn’t be surprised if B. Hawthorne develops into a major contributor at the 3/4 by mid-February, if not sooner. He seems to have the physical tools - both skills and measurables - and unlike a typical freshman, he also has a year of practice against college players and another year of physical development behind him. I think that gives him a real chance to become a player that impacts winning this season.

I'm basing that on the available evidence: his shooting, the way he handles and moves with the ball in high school videos, and what respected observers have said about his performance in practices and scrimmages. That’s still less than game evidence, so I could very easily be wrong. But it's more supported by evidence than those dismissing the possibility outright.
Totally agree. Hawthorne is our Nate Ament & Pope likes him so he & Potter will get the chance to prove themselves.
Pope will play at least 10 players every game for 12 minutes or more .
 
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JonathanW2

Senior
Aug 6, 2025
579
873
93
Everyone is saying well this guy is wrong, or that guy is wrong. There are only 200 minutes to go around. So if you think someone will play significantly more (than speculated), then you had better also say who is losing minutes.

I am also hopeful that Hawthrorne could be an Ament type player for us. Time will tell. But Kam W is more of a known quantity at this point.

I thought Kepnang as 12 might be low. But if Moreno develops and is as good as some of us think, how do you not play him at least 26mpg, but maybe even high 20's, which just leaves 11-14 for Kepnang, since I don't think either fits in at PF so can't play together.

For those of you speculating McBride starts. Maybe he does, but maybe not. I value a guy who has played against him, yet at the same time played 2 years at UK (Kyle Wiltjer) opinion more than yours. And even though I like N'Daiye offensive potential, I think his defense is what puts him on the court more than McBride. But sure, it could be closer to a 20/20 split especially if N'Daiye makes 30% of his 3's and McBride makes 40% (& isn't a liability on defense).

I still don't love our backup guard situation (Morton, FR D.Williams, & FR lil' Hawthorne), but it is what it is. If we had to play someone else at the 2 (e.g. foul trouble or injury, or one of those simply not good enough to be on the floor), who do ya'll think the most likely to do that (KamW, Noah, B.Hawthorne)?

And of course, maybe we add someone else, which just mixes all this up again (except probably not at C & PG).
 

megablue

Heisman
Oct 2, 2012
15,987
16,350
113
"I thought Kepnang as 12 might be low. But if Moreno develops and is as good as some of us think, how do you not play him at least 26mpg, but maybe even high 20's, which just leaves 11-14 for Kepnang, since I don't think either fits in at PF so can't play together."
First off, THANK YOU for taking the time to present your projections. You have spurred interesting discussion during this slow, drought period.

Yes, I agree with you, other than the probably rare occasions where Moreno and Kepnang might play together as DUAL BIGS in certain situations, I do not see either of them "fitting" as PF. My thinking is ... Garrison played 16.3 mpg last year, Moreno (although a Freshman and playing 22.6 mpg last year) tended to disappear in more than a few games, we have lost Dioubate's physicality, Kepnang played 22.9 mpg last year and has averaged 17.3 mpg for his six (6) previous season, Kepnang has more physical and mental maturity at his age, fatigue and foul trouble, etc ... I just think Kepnang's productivity and presence will command more than 12 mpg, as he has only played less than that his Freshman season at Oregon with 8.6 mpg.

A comparison of PER 40 splits from last year:
Moreno: 13.8 / 11.2 / 2.6
Kepnang: 10.8 / 11.0 / 3.6


I agree that Moreno should start and play more, but I can see something like at 24 / 16 split, at least, assuming Moreno has greatly IMPROVED !!
I certainly believe Moreno has far more potential, but I'm not sure he's there yet ... he'll have to show me ... and hopefully, he will.

 
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