UK #2 in Kenpom

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Yeah essentially it all comes down to placement on the seed line.

Like Gonzaga is going West
Auburn is going South

The next spot would all depend on where you are at on the line. If it's the way the bracket reveal said it would be Arizona MW Kansas E. But if Kansas was ahead of Arizona those would be flipped.

This is why no one should pay attention to the actual bracket. Because two teams flipping spots can drastically change an entire bracket.

The takeaway I think from Sunday is that the committee sees UK at 6th currently.

 

[kywildcat1021979]

I thought they used to take injuries into account too when seeding is that a thing they don’t do anymore?

 

[Bkocats]

I thought they used to take injuries into account too when seeding is that a thing they don’t do anymore?

Depends on the team lol

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

I would say they definitely factored in Baylor's injuries.
And Illinois.

Ours? Hmm dunno. Doesn't seem like it.

 

[Padsfs07]

It depends. Most definitely Kentucky/Kansas will end up in Chicago. One of the two. Maybe in the same bracket. Auburn will go to San Antonio. The wild card is the East region. Maybe they put Arizona in Chicago, but even if it's Kentucky or Kansas as the #2 there, that's a big disadvantage for Arizona.

Kansas and Kentucky in the Elite 8 would set up just like the Fox/Monk season, when UNC had the revenge factor going for them. That wouldn't be great, but I think we would still take them down.

 

[Padsfs07]

Auburn is going South

Auburn would be going to Chicago - Midwest.

 

[kywildcat1021979]

Depends on the team lol

Very true ! Lol

 

[GoZags_rivals83639]

How dare you talk about Gonzaga's conference. Popcorn State and St. Mary's school of the blind are quality quad 6 wins.

Nice, short handed statement win over KenPom #19 Alabama yesterday.

Just thought I'd point out that Gonzaga's next 2 games are @ KenPom #24 USF and at KenPom #21 SMC. And that the "popcorn U" conference has 4 schools dancing as of today (per the committee)
----
Some cherry picked stats

Most NCAA TOURNAMENT wins since 2015
Gonzaga 20, Nova 17, UNC 16, Duke 15, Kentucky 13, Michigan 13, Virginia 11, Baylor 9
-----
Most FINAL FOUR wins since 2017
UNC 2, Nova 2, Virginia 2, Baylor 2, Gonzaga 2, Michigan 1, TexasTech 1, Kentucky 0, Duke 0, Kansas 0

 

[Allcats08]

The mid majors are in some ways tough to evaluate given the lack of opportunities for Quad 1 wins.

IMO what they should do?

Get rid of the committee period.

I'm okay with giving the Zags the overall 1 seed. Based on metrics, they probably are good enough to warrant it but if not most will agree they are somewhere around the top.

But UK is 2nd in Kenpom..........yet 6th overall in the committees eyes. And honestly to me, there's something not right about that.

We'd be favored over Kansas and Baylor on a neutral court. Yet we are behind them on a seed line.

Have caps on their seeds. IMO opinion Gonzaga should have a 2 seed as their cap. They’ve played 4 good teams and are 2-2 against them. The rest of their wins are cupcakes.

 

[Padsfs07]

Just thought I'd point out that Gonzaga's next 2 games are @ KenPom #24 USF and at KenPom #21 SMC. And that the "popcorn U" conference has 4 schools dancing as of today (per the committee)

The metrics also show LSU as a top 16 school. It's a tool, but not the be-all end-all. Also, the committee doesn't list but the top 16 schools. Lunardi, Katz, Palm and the like do the full bracket predictions.

Further, BYU has no shot at getting in at this point and San Francisco is going to drop off soon enough.

 

[Brushy Creek Cat]

How dare you talk about Gonzaga's conference. Popcorn State and St. Mary's school of the blind are quality quad 6 wins.

Don't forget Roast Beef A&M. They've been playing good ball lately.

 

[Untouchables22]

I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Auburn would get a #1 seed. But after yesterday they still have @ Tenn and they have demonstrated they are not the same team playing away from home so another loss early in the SEC tournament could cost them a #1 it’s not over yet.

 

[Urolex]

Nice, short handed statement win over KenPom #19 Alabama yesterday.

Just thought I'd point out that Gonzaga's next 2 games are @ KenPom #24 USF and at KenPom #21 SMC. And that the "popcorn U" conference has 4 schools dancing as of today (per the committee)
----
Some cherry picked stats

Most NCAA TOURNAMENT wins since 2015
Gonzaga 20, Nova 17, UNC 16, Duke 15, Kentucky 13, Michigan 13, Virginia 11, Baylor 9
-----
Most FINAL FOUR wins since 2017
UNC 2, Nova 2, Virginia 2, Baylor 2, Gonzaga 2, Michigan 1, TexasTech 1, Kentucky 0, Duke 0, Kansas 0

The problem with your cherry picking, aside from the obvious, is that several teams behind gonzaga in that time frame have at least won a championship since 2015. Part of why the zags have 20 wins is because they’re gifted a 1 seed, so naturally they’re going to have an easier path and thus more wins. The point that most of us on here are making is that they’ve shown to not be deserving of their annual 1 seed—and your cherry picked stats reinforce that.

 

[Original_Irish]

The problem with your cherry picking, aside from the obvious, is that several teams behind gonzaga in that time frame have at least won a championship since 2015. Part of why the zags have 20 wins is because they’re gifted a 1 seed, so naturally they’re going to have an easier path and thus more wins. The point that most of us on here are making is that they’ve shown to not be deserving of their annual 1 seed—and your cherry picked stats reinforce that.

Gonzaga has been a 1 seed 4 times if I recall and has made the final 4 and Championship game twice with a 1 seed. Historically, a 1 seed has a 40% chance of making a final 4 and a 24% chance of making the finals. So Gonzaga actually has outperformed their 1 seed rankings based on historical average. Since 2015, the only 1 seed that didn’t make it to a final 4 lost a close game to Texas Tech in the Elite 8. Who ended up in the championship game.

Since 2015, they also have been to the sweet 16 as a 10 seed and a 4 seed. A 4 seed has a 47% chance of making a Sweet 16 and a 10 seed has a 16% chance of making a Sweet 16.

The 1 seed that GU got in 2013 I believe was most likely undeserving when they lost to Wichita State in round of 32. But since then, they have lived up to their ranking.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Yeah I think maybe in the past those seedings were undeserving but recently.............


I mean I don't know how anyone could have watched Baylor and Gonzaga last season and not conclude they were by far the two best teams in America and deserving of 1 seeds.

They aren't bad this season either.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

Yeah essentially it all comes down to placement on the seed line.

Like Gonzaga is going West
Auburn is going South

The next spot would all depend on where you are at on the line. If it's the way the bracket reveal said it would be Arizona MW Kansas E. But if Kansas was ahead of Arizona those would be flipped.

This is why no one should pay attention to the actual bracket. Because two teams flipping spots can drastically change an entire bracket.

The takeaway I think from Sunday is that the committee sees UK at 6th currently.

Just an FYI, Auburn’s closest site is MW not South. The preview show supported that yesterday. Might be a moot point if Zags- West and Zona-South but it’s a common thing I see.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

Yeah, but we're going to ignore the metrics and ignore head to head and just use quad 1 victories to determine who should get 1 seeds.

Gotta love a system where beating South Dakota State or Towson gives you as much credit as beating Kansas.

 

[EliteBlue]

But use metrics to give Gonzaga the overall 1 seed.

Funny huh?

I personally think there should be a rule that if a 1 seed comes from a nonpower5 conference and has a SOS below 100... they should have to play the top 2 seed. They shouldn’t get to benefit from the easiest path after playing the easiest path all year.

 

[Original_Irish]

Just an FYI, Auburn’s closest site is MW not South. The preview show supported that yesterday. Might be a moot point if Zags- West and Zona-South but it’s a common thing I see.

Ya I think as long as Zona and GU get 1 seeds, Zona will get the south bracket as it seems to make sense for 3-4 1 seeds. Kansas would be the one with a rough draw out East.

 

[Original_Irish]

Funny huh?

I personally think there should be a rule that if a 1 seed comes from a nonpower5 conference and has a SOS below 100... they should have to play the top 2 seed. They shouldn’t get to benefit from the easiest path after playing the easiest path all year.

Well as of today, Duke isn't the 2 seed that GU would like to play out of the 4. If we are talking matchups over rankings, Duke isn't favorable for GU.

 

[tls]

I would say they definitely factored in Baylor's injuries.
And Illinois.

Ours? Hmm dunno. Doesn't seem like it.

Not Baylor. Chair was asked about it and said they would keep an eye on Baylor. Meaning if Baylor starts to falter now with a key guy ot it will affect their seeding. But so far it hasn’t affected them.

 

[tls]

Well as of today, Duke isn't the 2 seed that GU would like to play out of the 4. If we are talking matchups over rankings, Duke isn't favorable for GU.

Duke beat them but Nembhard had a horrible game. OTOH Griffin is now a force for Duke. I’d pick Zags in a rematch.

 

[YouKay]

They will not give UK a #1 seed unless it is super obvious. Thats why UK will need to win out and win the SECT to get one.
They will most certainly screw Kentucky a seed line if they think they can get away with it. It has happened before.

I don’t care about the seed as much as who else is in our top 4 and where we play. It’s going to be criminal if UK ends up in the East with Villanova playing on their home court as a lower seed. Or playing a lower seeded Baylor in San Antonio.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Just an FYI, Auburn’s closest site is MW not South. The preview show supported that yesterday. Might be a moot point if Zags- West and Zona-South but it’s a common thing I see.

Yep that's right. So they would go MW obviously as the 2.

lol for some reason it's hard to wrap my brain around that. When I think of Auburn, I think South lol.

It's still possible too that even tho the closest site is MW, they still could technically stick them in the S.

I think the bigger reason they stick them in MW is because then they can put Arizona in S and not force them into MW.

 

[Original_Irish]

Yep that's right. So they would go MW obviously as the 2.

lol for some reason it's hard to wrap my brain around that. When I think of Auburn, I think South lol.

It's still possible too that even tho the closest site is MW, they still could technically stick them in the S.

I think the bigger reason they stick them in MW is because then they can put Arizona in S and not force them into MW.

100% agree.

 

[Original_Irish]

Duke beat them but Nembhard had a horrible game. OTOH Griffin is now a force for Duke. I’d pick Zags in a rematch.

It would be a great game just like the earlier game this year. Duke beat Gonzaga the way teams typically beat them though. They have great length and their ball pressure was excellent. Historically, Gonzaga struggles in the tournament when teams can do that. It's why I agree that the WCC doesn't help them in season. The teams are getting better in the WCC, but they don't have those athletic lengthy dudes.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

It's not hard really. The way Gonzaga schedules today, they should be capped as a 2 seed. We play just as many tough OOC games each year, then have to go in conference for 7-8 quad 1 games a year. If they want to justify a 1 seed, they should have 7-8 tough games all through November and December.

But with the way it is, there is no point in doing that. All they have to do is put up a winning record in their 5-6 tough OOC games, then cruise in conference play. This year they went 3-2 in those games. Last year, they went 5-0. In 19/20, they went 5-1. While in 18/19, they went 5-2. In 17/18, they went 4-3. The most recent 4 seasons garnered them a 1 seed each year (covid year just a prediction)

Exactly, this is absolutely not one of the better Zag teams yet they are poised for the #1 overall seed. Mind numbing.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

It depends. Most definitely Kentucky/Kansas will end up in Chicago. One of the two. Maybe in the same bracket. Auburn will go to San Antonio. The wild card is the East region. Maybe they put Arizona in Chicago, but even if it's Kentucky or Kansas as the #2 there, that's a big disadvantage for Arizona.

And that's deserved because they have a SOS that will probably end up around 80.
They deserve zero favors.
That said I think both Zona and UK will be 1 seeds:
Zags
Zona
UK
Duke

 

[HerrosHeroes]

That's where they put them on the bracket reveal yesterday and someone asked them about it and the committee member said the rules state as long as they don't play 3 or more games at a venue, they are allowed to be there.

Which fine rules are rules but what happened to protecting the 1 and 2 seeds to not be at a disadvantage lol.

EAST REGION (PHILADELPHIA)
4. Kansas
6. Kentucky
9. Villanova
13. Wisconsin

How on earth is this fair to UK or KU? lol

We will be in the East with Nova but probably as a 1 seed. It will be a defacto home game in the EE for Nova v UK.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

I don’t care about the seed as much as who else is in our top 4 and where we play. It’s going to be criminal if UK ends up in the East with Villanova playing on their home court as a lower seed. Or playing a lower seeded Baylor in San Antonio.

But we know thats exactly what they will do.
But the joke will be on them as this team has proven road wins v Kansas and Alabama.
Listen, if UK is healthy we are going to be an extremely tough out for anyone, anywhere.

 

[kyjeff1]

It would be a great game just like the earlier game this year. Duke beat Gonzaga the way teams typically beat them though. They have great length and their ball pressure was excellent. Historically, Gonzaga struggles in the tournament when teams can do that. It's why I agree that the WCC doesn't help them in season. The teams are getting better in the WCC, but they don't have those athletic lengthy dudes.

I'm trying to figure out how in the heck Gonzaga got handled by Alabama. In their own backyard no less.

Bama is long, but definitely not known for their defense.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

I'm trying to figure out how in the heck Gonzaga got handled by Alabama. In their own backyard no less.

Bama is long, but definitely not known for their defense.

Looking at that game, the numbers were pretty much even across the board. Similar shooting %, same amount of turnovers, offense rebound %.

The biggest cause of the difference in that game seems to me Gonzaga only hit 53% of their free throws. Definitely an outlier on the season.

 

[kywildcat1021979]

But we know thats exactly what they will do.
But the joke will be on them as this team has proven road wins v Kansas and Alabama.
Listen, if UK is healthy we are going to be an extremely tough out for anyone, anywhere.

With a full healthy team we have played great games at neutral sites, at home, and on the road. This team is really going to be battle tested come tournament time. If we have too we will spank Villanova in the Philadelphia location won’t matter as long as we have a full healthy team!

 

[kyjeff1]

One thing nobody is talking about is Auburn. There is a world in which they slip off the 1 line.

They just lost at Florida, they still have road games at Tennessee and a desperate Mississippi State.

They don't play well away from home. Damn near lost to Missouri and… .checks notes… Georgia.

Plus, they can lose early in the SECT.

 

[kywildcat1021979]

I'm trying to figure out how in the heck Gonzaga got handled by Alabama. In their own backyard no less.

Bama is long, but definitely not known for their defense.

Hasn’t Bama also beat Baylor this year too?

 

[TortElvisII]

Uk will get the murderers row in the ncaat, as usual. Meanwhile dook will get a cakewalk. Mark it down.

Good.

UK has traditionally done better in the tournament with a murderer's row than when the bracket falls apart. I cannot explain it and I'm jealous of the dukes of the world who get brackets falling apart continually.

I do think the murderers row in 2014 kept Kentucky from winning it all at the end because of injuries. I really doubt UCONN would have gotten to the finals playing who we did. 8 seeds can't complain though.

 

[kyjeff1]

Looking at that game, the numbers were pretty much even across the board. Similar shooting %, same amount of turnovers, offense rebound %.

The biggest cause of the difference in that game seems to be Gonzaga only hit 53% of their free throws. Definitely an outlier on the season.

They lost by 9 or so IIRC and now that we know who and what Alabama is, that’s a strange loss.

 

[kyjeff1]

Hasn’t Bama also beat Baylor this year too?

Yeah, at home, but Baylor was down 2 guards, I believe Cryer was one of them and he's extremely important to Baylor, but then again, we were down our starting 2 point guards, took a bunch of punches to the face and beat their asses.

I just think the SEC is really good, but the projections show only 6 SEC teams getting in… .9 BIG10 teams are showing in. Thats ridiculous.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

They lost by 9 or so IIRC and now that we know who and what Alabama is, that’s a strange loss.

It's weird team.

They have beaten some very good teams but also lost to some bad teams. You could say well a team that takes a ton of 3s when they are on they are going to win. But that really wasn't the case in the Baylor or Zags game. I mean they shot okay but they didn't go crazy from 3 in either of those games.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

It's weird team.

They have beaten some very good teams but also lost to some bad teams. You could say well a team that takes a ton of 3s when they are on they are going to win. But that really wasn't the case in the Baylor or Zags game. I mean they shot okay but they didn't go crazy from 3 in either of those games.

They have very little help in the paint. Thats a problem.