Time to Buy stocks

[TheStateUofMS]

If you have a long time horizon or even retired but have at least 1-2yrs of cash on hand, it's time to buy some stocks.

My favorites:
AMZN, HD, CVS, NVDA, CRM, MSFT, PEP, SAM, AAPL, UBER, V, AXP, SQ, LULU, NKE, UNH, KO, JNJ, DIS, ADBE, PG, DUK, AEP, AMD, GOOG, INTC, CLX, T, DG


I would not try and catch:
BA, F, GM, Oil stocks other than (CVX), Hotel/Casino stocks, restaurant stocks and God forbid Cruise or airline stocks. The financials are interesting but not quite ready to say buy some yet but JPM is best of breed.

^^^Any rally in those names are likely to be sold.

GLTA

 

[MaroonCrusader]

Load up on credit cards: V, AXP, DISC

 

[TBone.sixpack]

I read time to buy socks. Lol

This makes more sense

 

[HotMop]

I looked at CLX yesterday, it is currently at a 5 year high, why is it getting so much attention? It seems like a short term win.

 

[Shmuley]

Given the toilet paper situation, socks makes sense, too.

 

[turkish]

You don’t think we have another week or more of really bad news with this virus?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Never a bad idea to buy socks though. What brands do you like?

 

[johnson86-1]

You don’t think we have another week or more of really bad news with this virus?

Well, it matters how bad the news will be compared to what people have priced in now. I think people have priced in an extended shutdown at this point. I'm not putting what little dry powder I have in b/c I need the insurance if **** really is bad. But I wouldn't feel bad about going in right now if I had some more cash.

ETA: delete "back"

 

[TheStateUofMS]

The bad news hasn't even hit the headlines yet. Market has priced in a ton of bad news. It hasn't priced in worst case scenario at all by any means. Market could easily fall much further. I just think if you fit the criteria I listed above, it's time to do some buying. Don't use all your cash at once.

If market comes down another 5-10%, do some more buying.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

If you're aware what of CLX makes and you've been to a super market lately, you should be able to answer that question. Solid dividend too. It had a better yield when the stock was lower, but they'll probably raise their dividend.

CLX is a defensive stock generally as well.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

I bought some weeks ago after it already went up. More or less, people are buying their products way more than normal. Even if it does not gain much over the next year, it's a better option than 99% of the S&P 500 right now, so money is heading that way.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

How far has the market dropped since you got out?

 

[o_Spectre]

We haven't seen overloaded ICU's or significant death yet. Because Americans are dumb this thing will be spread far and wide. The market has quite a ways to go. Calls for nationwide shelter in place will go out within three weeks once this ramps up.

 

[johnson86-1]

How far has the market dropped since you got out?

I mis typed. I haven't gotten out. I'm 100% stocks other than some rentals and unfortunately haven't changed that allocation through the crisis. I just happen to have some cash savings right now that I semi-inadvertently built up thinking I wanted to buy some property but never quite finding what I wanted. Not a ton, but would let me replace about half of what I've lost if I put it in now. Think I'll have to wait until we see some certainty on how long it will take to come out of this though.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I think that'll be good for market: shelter in place. Virus will die quicker and biz would return to normal quicker.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I thought you said you moved to all or mostly cash for first time in your life recently? Maybe I'm thinking of another poster....

 

[JML105]

I bought BA yesterday when it hit 90. Just a few short months ago it was hovering around 400. It hasn't been sub 100 in almost 10 years. Will it go down significantly more? Maybe, but people will be flying again and the Max will be selling when this is all over. In the meantime, the gov will be placing a few more Apache orders I'm sure.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I bought BA yesterday when it hit 90. Just a few short months ago it was hovering around 400. It hasn't been sub 100 in almost 10 years. Will it go down significantly more? Maybe, but people will be flying again and the Max will be selling when this is all over. In the meantime, the gov will be placing a few more Apache orders I'm sure.

Go do some homework on the cash flow and debt ratings. If they get cut another notch to junk tons of funds who hold Investment Grade Corp Bonds will be forced to sell BA bonds.

You're too complacent on airline industry coming back quickly as well especially world wide. Many airlines will probably delay or cancel deliveries.

BA is one of the most important companies in the world. The US Gov won't let them fail, but they are no where close to resolving their issues. It's just begun. BA is a no touch for now. If you do buy, buy 1/4 of your ultimate position (share count goal) at a time and after every 10% decline.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I also forgot to mention, this morning's intraday reversal (opening and immediately selling off to the lows of the day early in the trading session then reversing and finishing the day higher) is something technicians would look for to try and spot a bottom. Not to mention yesterday we tested and broke the 12/24/18 lows but more importantly yesterday we closed above that 12/24/18 closing price.

Not trying to call a bottom, but the market IS trying to at least stabilize. Market has priced in really bad news. Really really awful news could send it much lower, but bad but not awful news could stabilize this thing.

Like I said, this advice was for the long term investors or investors who are retired but have 1-2yrs of living expenses cash on hand.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

So why not buy cruise and airline stocks? They are obviously very low and neither industry is going away. After the Great Recession, cruise stocks bounced back at a faster clip than the rest of the market. I’m not arguing, just asking for a free explanation.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

You can count on another drop tomorrow. Next two week will be more big losses followed good gains... may hover around 19, but wouldn't be shocked to see it end up closer to 1700, maybe less.

We won't know what our Covid 19 Curve is going to look like until mid-April. Be cautious with your buys. real cautious.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Doggie, do yourself a favor and don't try and think you can predict what the market is going to do each of the next few days. You'll just look silly in the end.

ETA: Btw, not trying to a douche, it's just an eye roll when I hear people speaking like they know exactly what the market is going to do and get very specific like you did.

 

[MechEnDawg]

If you have a long time horizon or even retired but have at least 1-2yrs of cash on hand, it's time to buy some stocks.

My favorites:
AMZN, HD, CVS, NVDA, CRM, MSFT, PEP, SAM, AAPL, UBER, V, AXP, SQ, LULU, NKE, UNH, KO, JNJ, DIS, ADBE, PG, DUK, AEP, AMD, GOOG, INTC, CLX, T, DG


I would not try and catch:
BA, F, GM, Oil stocks other than (CVX), Hotel/Casino stocks, restaurant stocks and God forbid Cruise or airline stocks. The financials are interesting but not quite ready to say buy some yet but JPM is best of breed.

^^^Any rally in those names are likely to be sold.

GLTA

I just moved 80% of my tsp to the G fund this morning. Was that a mistake? I have always left it alone in C,S,I. Also bought my first AMZN (1) stock this morning. I've been lucky with NFLX, and TSLA keeping me well into the black.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I feel ya and I know where you're coming from.

These industries are going through a liquidity crisis at the moment. You can't simply shut down operations for AT LEAST 2 months (the cruise lines) and make a quick recovery from that. There could be psychological factors at play for people being more reluctant to go on cruises once the virus leaves us. That's a little speculation, but what if the two months is extended? I think that's likely. It's also world wide too, so even if USA isn't hit as hard as feared, other parts of the world are.

The entire travel and leisure industry world wide is grinding to a dead end halt for at least 2 months, but likely more. The airlines I would feel more comfortable with than the cruise stocks, but even some airline CEOs are saying this is the worst demand drop in the history of the industry. Oil prices collapsing should help them, but hell they aren't flying many people so they don't need the jet fuel.

Airlines and Cruise Lines are furloughing people that has high costs, then when they can bring them back on there will be a ramp up process that'll be costly.

Look, very very long term, you are probably getting a good deal on the stocks, but I don't think they'll be back to their highs for years.

If I had to pick one, it'd be airlines and a name like DAL. AAL has a scary debt load. Dividends likely will be cut as well.

I'm sure the shorts will be targeting these stocks as well.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I'm not sure what the G fund is, but I'm guessing Growth?

Like I said, if you have a long time horizon, or even medium like 5-10yrs, it's a good time to put some money in stocks. If you're near retirement, but under allocated to equities, it's time to allocate some money to stocks. I'm not trying to say we've definitely bottomed, but I think this is an attractive entry point to put some money to work.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Btw, it was Patdog I think who said he got out of the market or moved a huge chunk to cash for the first time in his life.

 

[turkish]

G fund is treasuries.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

I think now is a good time to start buying in slowly. Never catch a falling knife, but I don’t think easing in a few positions now is a bad thing, especially with the stocks you KNOW will rebound like Disney.

 

[o_Spectre]

I think now is a good time to start buying in slowly. Never catch a falling knife, but I don’t think easing in a few positions now is a bad thing, especially with the stocks you KNOW will rebound like Disney.

You do realize what the headlines are going to be in 2-3 weeks, right? If we get a National "shelter-at-home" WTF do you think the markets are going to do? Because THAT is not already priced in.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

You do realize what the headlines are going to be in 2-3 weeks, right? If we get a National "shelter-at-home" WTF do you think the markets are going to do? Because THAT is not already priced in.

I have no clue what the headlines will read in 2-3 weeks because I can’t see into the future. I also don’t know what the market will do either.

That’s why I said buy in “slowly”. I didn’t say push it all in.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

If you have a long time horizon or even retired but have at least 1-2yrs of cash on hand, it's time to buy some stocks.

My favorites:
AMZN, HD, CVS, NVDA, CRM, MSFT, PEP, SAM, AAPL, UBER, V, AXP, SQ, LULU, NKE, UNH, KO, JNJ, DIS, ADBE, PG, DUK, AEP, AMD, GOOG, INTC, CLX, T, DG


I would not try and catch:
BA, F, GM, Oil stocks other than (CVX), Hotel/Casino stocks, restaurant stocks and God forbid Cruise or airline stocks. The financials are interesting but not quite ready to say buy some yet but JPM is best of breed.

^^^Any rally in those names are likely to be sold.

GLTA

no ZM?

 

[Dawgzilla]

Georgia Pacific (GPX). Anyone who makes toilet paper may as well be printing money.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

ZM I left out because it's run up so much and I was giving a list of what I'd buy right now. ZM will probably correct once the virus gets more under control. Definitely on the shopping list though.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

The market may see that as a positive because the market is going to react a lot worse to sky rocketing confirmed cases and no sign of a spread slow down, rather than an action that is definitely going to slow the spread and flatten the curve sooner, giving the economy a quicker recovery time.

Worse case scenario is seeing this spread rapidly through the summer. You lose a year of the economy or more if that happens.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Just don't go all in on long term bonds. I feel like the TLT is a very crowded trade right now.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

The market may see that as a positive because the market is going to react a lot worse to sky rocketing confirmed cases and no sign of a spread slow down, rather than an action that is definitely going to slow the spread and flatten the curve sooner, giving the economy a quicker recovery time.

Worse case scenario is seeing this spread rapidly through the summer. You lose a year of the economy or more if that happens.

COVID-19 dies at 80 degrees I think I saw. So warmer weather should help out.

 

[coach66]

It’s as tough of a situation as I have seen. I’m

60 yo and went to all cash after 18 percent loss
From market highs, not fun. With that said I’m at least sleeping now and trying to decide good reentry point which I believe will be lower than we are today. Unfortunately I think this crisis is going to get worse but sincerely hope I’m wrong. My biggest issue as an income investor is that seems almost an impossible strategy at this point with zero rates taking hold. Everyone will be forced into equities unless I’m missing something here. If I had not gotten out when I did I would be down 50 percent right now, it’s absurd.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

This will be over by the end of April. Quite a few older sickly people will die in the meantime. The end is near.

 

[patdog]

Yeah. I moved 40% of my holdings to cash last week when the Dow was at 25,000. I'm now at 40% cash, 20% preservation funds, and 40% in allocated funds that are about 60% exposed to the stock market. I guess I'm gonna stay that way for a while and then slowly move back into the market over the next 6 months. I still think the markets headed lower before it starts to really recover, but that's just a semi-educated guess.

 

[codeDawg]

Y’all are crazy. Thing thing may fizzle our thanks to current efforts and warmer temperatures, but current estimates out the peak in late April and early May. The Treasury Secretary is predicting 20% unemployment. Maybe this is wrong, but the downside is way deeper than the upside is high.