Thoughts from experienced Pack Degenerates

[Jwsjr]

Gonna try to make this short. I despise long messages too. I've enjoyed having some action on games my whole life. Made a lot, lost a lot. Started a new method 4 years ago and have made money each year. I do this for fun and don't play enough to matter to me. I play multi game ML pars. Usually play 20-25 games. You have to know going in that you will have VERY few wins each year. I average around 5 wins/year. Quick side note, i had MSU girls +1500 against UConn several years ago on a 25 team par. The odds/payout was incredible. I screwed up one night and played NBA - San Antone v. Lakers when Lakers totally sucked. Played the ML. Don't remember the ML but the game line was 18. you know the rest of the story. Learned my lesson playing NBA on this type of bet.

Fast forward - current. I have a 25 team ML par. Have won the first 23 games. Can fill in the other 2 open spots anytime on any sport. Right now payout (not counting open spots) is 12,500.

Options as i see them

Option 1 - fill in open spots with huge dogs like LSU over Arkansas (playing ML). You get no return on this, would pay out about 12,700 but you feel pretty good Arkansas won't beat LSU - especially at home

Option 2 - fill in open spots with 2 like- 3 point favs (but playing ML) to boost payout and hedge with a good sized bet on other side so i i would be pulling for the par, but would make money either way with the hedge. Would boost payout to around 31K but i would hedge 5-10K of that on straight bets.

Option 3 - fill in with 2 3 or 4 point favs on the line....not money line. Would obviously hedge this bet also. This would boost payout to 45K but you would lose your 5-10 hedge if par won.

What you you do, Pack???? Take the fairly sure thing for 12.5K, or look to boost odds with say a 10K hedge so you know you would still make 10K but have the chance to make 35K. Oh yea, it was a $100 original bet. Was a fun as 17 weekend!! Thought i was gonna lose my **** on the Vikings game.

 

[philduckworth]

You are only risking 2,500 to win 22,500 so Hedging seems like the optimal play.

 

[missouridawg]

Where do you get to play a parlay like this? Never seen something that allows you to have an empty slot to carry over into the future.

And I'm certainly a risk kinda guy... so I would probably play do this.... I would take a 2 to 7 point underdog and play them in the parlay against their respective spread. I'd search long and hard for underdog teams who are fighting for bowl eligibility and are playing against team who are uninterested in the game. I would then hedge that bet with a ML bet on the favorite. I'd try to guarantee myself a 5-6000$ payout this way.

What this does... is gives a slight window into hitting both bets since you'll have one team at +4 and the other team on the ML. Taking the underdog and the points at -110 or so will boost your parlay a lot more than putting the -200 to -400 ML bet.

 

[Jwsjr]

Thought about that also. It will
Increase payout to almost 6 figures but also decreases odds too. I’ve played with a lot of online books. 5Dimes is the only one that I’ve found that lets you keep open slots. You can pick 1 game and have up to 24 open slots.

 

[Jwsjr]

Just ran the payout scenario of picking 2 4-point dogs. Payout 86k. That’s taking the dog to win on ML Tho There’s a 5k bet limit so that’s my max hedge.

 

[tatedog]

It's hard to answer questions like these without knowing your personal financial situation/goals and how much this money means to you. It's life changing to some, and monthly pay for others. My second major thought here is that you seem to be doing pretty well, so why ask strangers what you should do?

How I'd personally handle it? Assuming there is no time limit on the two open spots in your parlay I'd wait for some high stakes games involving State and do an emotional hedge with it. I.e. what is the kind of situation I'd pay that type of money for State to succeed in. For instance, if we make it back to the finals of the CWS I'd wager the other team so that I either get the money or State wins in a big spot. The most favorable type of situation like this would be State being favored by a few points so that you could actually middle (State not cover but win and you get the money and the emotional satisfaction of the win).

 

[philduckworth]

Just ran the payout scenario of picking 2 4-point dogs. Payout 86k. That’s taking the dog to win on ML Tho There’s a 5k bet limit so that’s my max hedge.

Doesn't seem smart. I don't know your financial situation but seems like it would be a shame to not lock in a 10K profit.

 

[Jwsjr]

I do this purely for fun. Period. You can’t go into a 25 team par expecting to win. Odds stacked against you obviously.

 

[tatedog]

Well in that case, take the Cincinnati ML against Pittsburgh Sunday.**

 

[missouridawg]

Just ran the payout scenario of picking 2 4-point dogs. Payout 86k. That’s taking the dog to win on ML Tho There’s a 5k bet limit so that’s my max hedge.

Remember - I'm not saying taking the 2 or 4 point dog on the ML. I'm saying take the 2 or 4 point dog and the points. You'll get that bet at like -110 odds.

 

[Jwsjr]

I get it. Ran both scenarios

 

[missouridawg]

Just ran the payout scenario of picking 2 4-point dogs. Payout 86k. That’s taking the dog to win on ML Tho There’s a 5k bet limit so that’s my max hedge.

Knowing that you are maxed out at $5k certainly makes hitting that window a lot tougher.

I'd probably take a team like LSU this weekend and get my 24th game under the belt and then run a lot of numbers scenarios on the 25th game to figure out exactly how to maximize my floor while increasing my ceiling. If you want some help in this, DM me.

 

[Jwsjr]

Well in that case, take the Cincinnati ML against Pittsburgh Sunday.**

Taking LSU and Bengals payout 44,700. Ha.

 

[tatedog]

I was definitely joking about that bet, but it's not as outlandish as it might sound. Pittsburgh will be playing a backup qb behind a backup center. Cincinnati is garbage, but this game will be their Super Bowl.

 

[Jwsjr]

I know you were but I had to run the numbers just for Sh!ts and Giggles

 

[jdbulldog]

I would guarantee myself $10,000. No need to be greedy.....