This team vs the 2011 team

[CappyNU]

I've felt for a while now that this year's team's closest analogue is our 2011 team which was the 3rd of the 4 NIT teams.

Both teams were very good on one side of the ball, and mediocre to bad on the other side:
2011: 15th ranked O, 152nd ranked D
2019: 102nd ranked O, 34th ranked D

Both teams relied heavily on the starters:
2011: 22.9% bench minutes, 313th ranked
2019: 24.7% bench minutes, 316th ranked

Both teams had a relatively weak non-conference schedule:
2011: 325th ranked, toughest 3 games (41st St. John's L, 98th Creighton W, 100th GT W)
2019: 327th ranked, toughest 3 games (24th Oklahoma L, 62nd Fresno L, 98th GT W)

Both teams started 0-3 in conference, including a blowout in the 3rd game:
2011: @Purdue 69-82, MSU 62-65, @Illinois 63-88
2019: @IU 66-68, Michigan 60-62, @MSU 55-81

Both teams had a strong remaining schedule per KenPom:
2011: 8 "A" games, 5 "B" games out of 15
2019: 10 "A" games, 5 "B" games out of 17

Now, the 2011 team went 17-12, 7-11 plus 1-1 in the B1G tourney, with a 1-10 record in "A" games and a 3-3 record in "B" games, in a year when the B1G was ranked as the top conference and sent 7 of 11 teams to the NCAA tourney. This netted them a 4-seed in the NIT.

KenPom currently predicts us to go 17-14, 8-12 in the regular season, and I have to imagine pulling that off plus 1-1 or better in the B1G tourney would put us in the NIT as well this year. At this point, until the team shows it can pull some upsets, I think that's the minimum that we need to expect.

Thoughts?

 

[DaCat]

For this team, I think making the NIT would make it a successful season.

 

[EagerFan]

I thought the 2011 team really underperformed.
I still have hope this team will come together, get comfortable, and have a great season.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

I truly believe this is an on the bubble NCAA team in terms of how good they are. The problem is it’s early January and there is nothing even close to a resume building win. Making the tourney is of course still possible, but the hole is big, and it’s increasingly looking like this will be remembered as a good team that underperformed. There’s just a lot that has to go right these next two months.

 

[mikewebb68]

I truly believe this is an on the bubble NCAA team in terms of how good they are. The problem is it’s early January and there is nothing even close to a resume building win. Making the tourney is of course still possible, but the hole is big, and it’s increasingly looking like this will be remembered as a good team that underperformed. There’s just a lot that has to go right these next two months.

The good thing is that most every remaining game on our schedule after tomorrow is a potential top-100 win.