This is what the election is all about

[atlkvb]

It was 8%, dumbass.

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016

The only people shoving words up asses are me, showing atlkvb what a lying, piece of ****, welcher, *****, he is.

I may be a welcher, but you beat me to it and showed how it's done so I admit I can't compete with you there. I also cannot claim the distinction of being the only member on this forum to be unanimously voted as a liar, a loser, and a racist by a near unanimous vote. That's a hat trick which remains an unprecedented accomplishment in internet annals.

Congratulations

 

[atlkvb]

You better fvcking hope it’s that low. If it’s closer to 20, you guys are toast.

There isn't one credible poll showing anything less than 15% minority support for Trump. Many show double that. I've said he will get between 22% and 28%, which means Democrats go down in a landslide.

 

[atlkvb]

Can you name a single trump policy that has helped African-Americans?

Record low unemployment. Never been better. "Three letters" as Joe Biden would say J-O-B-S.

 

[30CAT]

Can you name a single President Trump policy that has helped African-Americans?

I can name some policies by Pedo-Joe that have disenfranchised blacks. 1994 crime law. Pedo-Joe was responsible for a provision in the 1986 crack law. One of the most racially slanted sentencing policies on record: a rule that treated crack cocaine as significantly worse than powder cocaine and ended up disproportionately punishing black people and sending them to prison but sparing white people who typically used cocaine.

President Trump?

Police-reform executive order, the First Step Act, released thousands of people from jail (90 percent of whom were black). He has promoted “opportunity zones” that incentivized private investment into marginalized communities, and also increased federal funding to historically black colleges and universities by 17 percent — a total exceeding $100 million, more than any president in history.

Here's a link, if you want to learn something besides hate-spew from your leaders.

 

[NYC_Eer]

If I were you, I wouldn't use a poll that used only a couple thousand voters as a sample size like you did in the 2016 one.

The second one was a little less clear on their sampling size.

The danger in trying to use polls as your evidence is that, for the most part, the sample size often doesn't even represent even a fraction of the whole.

Also, when using exit polling, it greatly matters where you set up. For example, if you choose to set up outside polls in predominantly black areas in the inner cities you're going to get as skewed results as if you set up outside polls in rural Oklahoma. Not to mention, you're also going to get a more skewed sample size just from the number of voters in the inner cities than you would in the more rural areas with their much smaller populations.

Its typical. Pew Research is the best at what it does.

Sample Size and MOSE
When it comes to minimizing sampling error, bigger is better—up to a point. The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error. But look at the accompanying chart, which shows the margin of sampling error for a simple random sample of a population where all people are equally likely to respond to the survey. (Note that this condition is not the case for most polls, and is typically corrected through weighting. This does affect the MOSE – more on that below). Notice that as the sample size increases, the margin of sampling error falls dramatically between small sample sizes of say 100 and larger samples of 1,000. But once we get to 1,000, additional sampling error falls only slightly. In fact, doubling the sample size from 1,000 to 2,000 only reduces the margin of sampling error by about a single percentage point.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Res...n-of-Sampling-Error-Credibility-Interval.aspx

 

[GrimReaper82]

Its typical. Pew Research is the best at what it does.

Sample Size and MOSE
When it comes to minimizing sampling error, bigger is better—up to a point. The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error. But look at the accompanying chart, which shows the margin of sampling error for a simple random sample of a population where all people are equally likely to respond to the survey. (Note that this condition is not the case for most polls, and is typically corrected through weighting. This does affect the MOSE – more on that below). Notice that as the sample size increases, the margin of sampling error falls dramatically between small sample sizes of say 100 and larger samples of 1,000. But once we get to 1,000, additional sampling error falls only slightly. In fact, doubling the sample size from 1,000 to 2,000 only reduces the margin of sampling error by about a single percentage point.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Res...n-of-Sampling-Error-Credibility-Interval.aspx

Lol

 

[atlkvb]

Its typical. Pew Research is the best at what it does.

Sample Size and MOSE
When it comes to minimizing sampling error, bigger is better—up to a point. The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error. But look at the accompanying chart, which shows the margin of sampling error for a simple random sample of a population where all people are equally likely to respond to the survey. (Note that this condition is not the case for most polls, and is typically corrected through weighting. This does affect the MOSE – more on that below). Notice that as the sample size increases, the margin of sampling error falls dramatically between small sample sizes of say 100 and larger samples of 1,000. But once we get to 1,000, additional sampling error falls only slightly. In fact, doubling the sample size from 1,000 to 2,000 only reduces the margin of sampling error by about a single percentage point.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Res...n-of-Sampling-Error-Credibility-Interval.aspx

Post the percentages of registered Black voters who turned out for Obama vs Hillary. then post the numbers preferring Trump this cycle vs last one in 2016. That's honest "research" but you won't do it because you're a dishonest racist.

 

[30CAT]

When did polls start voting?

 

[countryroads89_rivals]

Its typical. Pew Research is the best at what it does.

Sample Size and MOSE
When it comes to minimizing sampling error, bigger is better—up to a point. The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error. But look at the accompanying chart, which shows the margin of sampling error for a simple random sample of a population where all people are equally likely to respond to the survey. (Note that this condition is not the case for most polls, and is typically corrected through weighting. This does affect the MOSE – more on that below). Notice that as the sample size increases, the margin of sampling error falls dramatically between small sample sizes of say 100 and larger samples of 1,000. But once we get to 1,000, additional sampling error falls only slightly. In fact, doubling the sample size from 1,000 to 2,000 only reduces the margin of sampling error by about a single percentage point.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Res...n-of-Sampling-Error-Credibility-Interval.aspx

You're right. I've had statistics classes. This guy is a poser and knows nothing about sampling and statistics. One thing I love about this board, the idiots don't realize they are idiots and their posts show their stupidity and they don't even realize it.

 

[30CAT]

You're right. I've had statistics classes. This guy is a poser and knows nothing about sampling and statistics. One thing I love about this board, the idiots don't realize they are idiots and their posts show their stupidity and they don't even realize it.

Impressive.

Can you spell labeled?

 

[GrimReaper82]

You're right. I've had statistics classes. This guy is a poser and knows nothing about sampling and statistics. One thing I love about this board, the idiots don't realize they are idiots and their posts show their stupidity and they don't even realize it.

Libtards polling libtards. I love people that lack common sense. You will be fooled again, ******* libtard

 

[NYC_Eer]

There isn't one credible poll showing anything less than 15% minority support for Trump. Many show double that. I've said he will get between 22% and 28%, which means Democrats go down in a landslide.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Here is an article that cites several polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/

"So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day. If that happens again this year, Biden’s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. presidential elections."

 

[GrimReaper82]

You have no idea what you're talking about. Here is an article that cites several polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/

"So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day. If that happens again this year, Biden’s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. presidential elections."

Polls.

 

[tOSUGrad90]

You have no idea what you're talking about. Here is an article that cites several polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/

"So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day. If that happens again this year, Biden’s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. presidential elections."

You quote a "538" (whatever the he!! that is) piece over a month old as the source for your argument? Good gawd, libtards are gonna libtard.

 

[atlkvb]

You have no idea what you're talking about. Here is an article that cites several polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/

"So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day. If that happens again this year, Biden’s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. presidential elections."

So are the 10% you mentioned in those polls who will be voting for Trump "Uncle Toms"? Maybe they're not even Black?

I guarantee you more than 10% of Black voters will vote for Trump. I also guarantee Biden will not get the same number of Black voters Obama got, and Hillary got less than him. Trump on the other hand will get more Black votes than any other Republican in history. Know what else? You will be very angry about me being 100% correct about all of that plus the fact you will still be a 100% ignorant racist.

Come back on November 4th and see if I'm right about my race and that you're still a racist. See 'ya next week.

 

[WVU82_rivals]

 

[atlkvb]

You're right. I've had statistics classes. This guy is a poser and knows nothing about sampling and statistics. One thing I love about this board, the idiots don't realize they are idiots and their posts show their stupidity and they don't even realize it.

You call everyone "idiots" and you are proven wrong more than anyone else on this forum. What does that make you then if you are proven wrong more than the idiots you ridicule?

 

[spartansstink]

You're right. I've had statistics classes. This guy is a poser and knows nothing about sampling and statistics. One thing I love about this board, the idiots don't realize they are idiots and their posts show their stupidity and they don't even realize it.

I can attack both arguments from just this one post instead of getting into both individually.

First, for EER's post.

There were roughly 130 million votes cast in 2016. The sample size Pew used was somewhere between 2K and 3K. That's an extremely small sample size, <1%, wouldn't you say? That isn't to say their results aren't close, they may be, but to claim they are exact based on such a small sample size throws the validity of the survey into question. Again, those numbers may or may not be all the close to the exact, and getting the exact is essentially impossible anyway.

Different polls that conducted the same research found different results. Either way, a few percentage points one way or the other isn't really worth arguing about.

What is worth arguing about is the interpretation of those results. What they really mean for future elections and the belief that what the perceived results were in 16 is what they will be in 20 or 24.

Now, on to 89's diatribe...

First, for someone who took some statistics course, why didn't YOU try to correct me instead of riding the coattails of NYEER? Don't bother answering, I'll do it for you. Because you couldn't.

Second, you shouldn't even bother using nationwide polling in trying to determine the next President. Since you've taken these classes you surely can tell us why.