The powerful case for Alex
- Thread starter hart2chesson
- Start date
I'm looking for "big" things from AOC this year. I'm hoping that he plays well is the relatively limited minutes he gets this year. Not that he'll play too few minutes this year, just that it will SEEM that way because of how productive he is in his backup, supporting role. Because, I think he could legit be a NPOY candidate as a junior.
Low expectation: 6-8 min off the bench and similar role S last season
High (my) expectation: 14-16 minutes off the bench and be a deadly sniper from 3
High (my) expectation: 14-16 minutes off the bench and be a deadly sniper from 3
If he has worked on his game and strength, I see him as at least a 15-18 minute guy.
Good question Topps. I am happy for Alex so much support is being shown for him. We realized his potential in glimpses last year, and I still have high hopes he can be Dunleavyesque, if you will.
I think the GOAT will have no choice but to leave him on the court for extended minutes this year when we need perimeter shooting(duly noted in the article). Excited to see AOC this year!
OFC
And I think the "high" is more likely and reasonable. Zion is going to start at PF. Cam and/or RJ will play a decent amount at PF in small ball lineups. AOC will NEED to give us 15ish mpg, and a quality 15ish mpg, or we are in trouble this year.
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Unless Cam, Zion, and RJ are so freaking good that it doesn't make sense to play EACH of them less than 33+ MPG. If that is the case, and it could well be (though I personally doubt it), then AOC might creep down to 10ish MPG.
Probably. But, heading into last year, there was a real question about Ayton's motor. In college, he largely put that to rest.
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Cam Reddish has faced similar questions regarding his motor. Similarly, RJ has faced questions about his outside shot (an areas where Cam is better than RJ, but is by no means a great shooter).
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Point being, if Cam gives constant, high level effort, he could beast. If RJ can knock down outside jumpers he'll beast.
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If these guys "fix" their relative weaknesses, AOC might not be good enough relative to those guys that AOC won't play THAT much. 10-15 mpg, just because the other guys at his position are so freaking good. If Zion likewise defends and rebounds well, moving one of CR or RJ to PF, even in a backup or limited (mpg wise) capacity just won't make much sense.
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I like AOC, and I would expect him to make a real impact this year, if not for the presence of two potential studs (each has NBA franchise player potential) at his position.
According to the most recent roster, 6 lbs.
So we can still call him the "Slim" Reaper.
Someone get that young man a few pulled pork sandwiches. He is in North Carolina after all.
I think what I like about Alex best is every-time he lets a 3 fly I think it's going in. Love his quickness when he gets near the basket and I think he really holds his man down rather well.
I can see a lot of RJ at the top of the key, abusing his man into the lane and then a kick out to an open Alex 3, it’s gonna be fun.
Looks like we may have another problem with playing time because Coach K tells every recruit they will be a starter and go to guy. It's a wonder we that we only have 5 scholly players and the rest walk on's. Just kidding guys. I'm being sarcastic again. Just can't help it. 
OFC
OFCI’m sure I’ll get ripped for this but I like the idea of Alex starting and Zion coming off the bench. Having Tre, Marques, and 3 wings would be really effective. Plus it’d get more experience on the floor.
I'll be watching to see how he's used in the second halves of games. If all signs point toward his being in the rotation in the last 10 minutes or so, that's exciting.
Alex received the great compliment from K last year of “he doesn’t hurt us when he’s on the court.” He’s a smart playmaker and deadeye shooter. This team is going to need that, hence why Joey probably won’t redshirt. Alex will get decent time, and if he’s as good as he can be, Duke will have a bench weapon worthy of a title run.
Assuming everyone stays healthy, I would be shocked to see this lineup more than a couple minutes a game. The starting 5 is almost certainly going to be Tre/Cam/RJ/Zion/Marques. Javin probably gets the bulk of the sub minutes at the 4/5. If we end up spending a lot of time in lineups where Cam or RJ are playing the 4, it probably means our frontcourt is bad.
I would probably agree with your starting five. This could be one of those years where IF, one or more starters struggle, we could see different lineups. There's really no upperclassmen for K to rely on, so it's quite possible a guy like White gets at least 8-10 minutes. He could be a wildcard. The kid hustles and seems to understand what is needed. That is worth something.
Not as much depth this year. I think he'll definitely get some significant minutes. There are 4 highly rated freshmen (Reddish, Williamson, Barrett, and Jones) who should all start and get lots of minutes. Then DeLaurier, Bolden, and O'Connell make 7. Joey Baker is a bit more of a wild-card. He may get a ton of time as well ... or not. Either way, that's the top 7-8 and you really need to go at least 7, and really, 8 deep in big games.
Of those, there are only 3 upper classmen and you need upper class leadership. Bolden is soft-spoken and still needs to develop some intensity to his game. I think the upper class "vocal-leadership" will come from Javin and Alex and they'll get some minutes.
I think the rest of the minutes will be an up and down scenario depending on matchups and how they are practicing, between White, Vrank, Robinson, and Goldwire.
Of those, there are only 3 upper classmen and you need upper class leadership. Bolden is soft-spoken and still needs to develop some intensity to his game. I think the upper class "vocal-leadership" will come from Javin and Alex and they'll get some minutes.
I think the rest of the minutes will be an up and down scenario depending on matchups and how they are practicing, between White, Vrank, Robinson, and Goldwire.
Goldwire also looks to get some time. Maybe 5 a game to keep Tre’s stress injury at bay.
As usual for K, it’d be appropriate to expect a team of 7. Probably Bolden and the 4 original freshmen and Alex and Javin off the pine. As mentioned above, if RJ and Cam are seeing the floor at the 4, something went drastically wrong or a severe mismatch was found.
I think we’ll see the typical “message sent” subs and we’ll see the “he earned it in practice subs.” I think at some point Jack or JRob or Jordan will force K’s hand into playing an 8th in big games. And I think at some point this season we’ll say “Antonio really saved the day for us in that first half.”
Either way, I just want this team to have a reliable identity by February.
I feel like Tre, Cam, and RJ are set in stone. If not, we won't need to worry about next year, because after all the current OADs leave, there won't be another top 20 talent considering Duke for the foreseeable Future.
Yeah, because playing future NBA franchise wing out of position at Duke worked out so well for us, right?
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Does everyone, or, hell, ANYONE realize what would have happened 2 years ago if K had let Tatum play SF, Amile at PF, and one of the actual C at his natural position? Well, if not, I can tell you: UNC for sure doesn't win the national title that year. With the correct players playing their correct positions, Duke finishes top 2 in the ACC reg season, while still winning the tourney. We are a 1 seed, and it isn't 30 minutes away from our opponents campus.
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You people realize that when K said "we don't have positions" that he didn't actually mean it, right? He just meant that he (K) was going to play whom he darn well wanted to play, and if it didn't work out, then everyone could kindly EFF OFF and not question his decision.
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Every team that has won a national title has had fairly well defined positions. Every national title team has had fairly well defined positions.
While I somewhat I agree with you, I’ll also look at 2015 when Justise was our 4. Also went with a well defined positional lineup last season with supposedly the best recruiting class of all time and see how that turned out. I think it varies year to year depending on the personnel. I like the idea of alex being out there because of his shooting, hustle, and experience. You’re probably right that it’ll never happen though.
My prediction. If one player suprises, we win it all...lmao ...think hard about that
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Yes,but he might not be finished his cross country bike ride by then!
I LOVE the way Alex shoots his jumper. He springs into that shot quickly, confidently and probably releases it 9+ feet off the ground. When he can step into a jump shot, it looks like it is going in every time. While it might be unrealistic to expect 48% from 3 for his career at Duke, it is not unrealistic to see numbers like that if he takes good open looks this year in a larger volume. Later in his career he will have to take tougher shots and a player's percentage will drop on contested and end of clock situations. But a shot released from that high is beautiful in that it is very hard to block. It is tough for a defender to get his hand that high that quick. That makes him a go-to sniper on drive and kick situations... And his all around game is good also due to his athleticism. He knows he belongs, no matter how many OAD's are around him... he needs to play!
Justice Winslow started at 4 for our title run in '15 and Shane Battier was our 4 in '01. They are both NBA wings. We didn't lose that year because Tatum played the 4.
And what K means when he says we don't have positions is, "I'm going to get the 5 guys that give us the best chance to win, even if it means I play two PGs (Cook/Tyus, JWill/Duhon) or a 3 slides down to 4 (Winslow, Tatum, Singler, Battier, etc) or we just have backcourt and frontcourt with no further definition ('10)." Also similar to GSW's Hamptons 5 lineup where they play a 4 at 5 and have 4 wings.
In 2002, Dunleavy and Dahntay Jones played the “4” with Boozer at the 5. Certainly wasn’t the reason that team blew the game vs the Hoosiers.