The pessimism here is way overdone

[PSAL_Hoops]

i am trying to be kind to the poster who suggested we could be a few bounces away from a fringe bubble team...I think worst case is 9 wins, best case 15

I’m curious if we’re off on our definition of a few unlucky breaks away from a fringe bubble team or on the actual forecast of what the team will be like.

In my opinion, our current positioning is very similar to where we were entering the 2018-19 season. Is that pretty fair? Worse is some ways, but maybe positioned a little better in a few others (for instance, more experienced ball handlers - Corey had handled the point in Geo’s frosh season). Reliant on a lot of frosh. Ogbole sort resembles Shaq Doorson - that was the extent of experience at center (Carter and MJ in their first years). Eugene had shown some flashes the prior year but to that point he wasn’t anything special. Remember - we were a bad team and he didn’t even put up 8 ppg. We were relying on frosh to come in and deliver and our frosh class turned out to be good. Nobody was a double digit scorer off the bat - but they were solid.

That team met your forecast - 14 wins, but also met my definition of being “close” to fringe bubble. They shouldn’t have lost that Iowa game - it was like 1/10000 and still haunts my nightmares. The OT loss to Illinois was another heartbreaker. Pair those 2 games with a reversal of the utter stupidity of scheduling a true road game at Fordham and that team is 17-13 not 14-16 going into the BIG tournament. Still not likely a tournament team, but meeting my definition (I.e. if a few more things went right and our coach didn’t schedule an idiotic game - which lets hope we don’t have next season) 17 wins theoretically could’ve happened.

Basically what I’m saying is - my best case scenario is a team at the level of that team. This would require our frosh turn out like the 2018-19 batch of frosh, Buchanan comes in and had a junior season like Eugene’s, The 3 centers on our roster match the productivity of those 3 centers that year, between the returning / transfer guards (Zrno, Davis, Francis) and forwards (Grant, Dortch) someone makes strides to become a leader and consistent scorer like Geo was.

 

[Rhuarc]

With all due respect, this is why threads get out of hand. Though a mild version of how threads get out of hand.

I disagree with Bac - or really want to.

But he did not say he KNOWS ... he specifically said "I think". So not "know" but "think ... i.e. opinion.

He literally does this in every post now and none of the mods want to stop it so it will just keep on happening.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

And you know this how? If your so certain take a vegas trip and bet your retirement money on it. Be strong.

What about this roster says he's wrong?

They took a PG who would still be looking for a team in June, a big that literally couldn't get on the floor at two different schools, a Euro who no one knows if he can play at the high major level and the final addition is not expected to be anything that wows us.

I get some of you want to live off the hopium that things magically come together but it's really going to be like the first two seasons when Pike was trying to get out from under the Eddie Jordan stink.

 

[ru66]

With all due respect, this is why threads get out of hand. Though a mild version of how threads get out of hand.

I disagree with Bac - or really want to.

But he did not say he KNOWS ... he specifically said "I think". So not "know" but "think ... i.e. opinion.

People place bets on their predictions and opinions and he professes strong ones. My obvious point, no one knows how this team will end up next season , but when you act like an expert and constantly think you're always right you deserve a reality check. Let's see what happens.

 

[Rhuarc]

People place bets on their predictions and opinions and he professes strong ones. My obvious point, no one knows how this team will end up next season , but when you act like an expert and constantly think you're always right you deserve a reality check. Let's see what happens.

If the season goes off the rails, will you come back and apologize to Bac for his predictions on the season? I think that would be only fair considering how much grief you've given him in recent weeks.

 

[ru66]

If the season goes off the rails, will you come back and apologize to Bac for his predictions on the season? I think that would be only fair considering how much grief you've given him in recent weeks.

Would he or you do the same? He hasn't done that in the past when wrong.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Would he or you do the same? He hasn't done that in the past when wrong.

Yes for sure. He routinely switches gears on his positions and even includes things like “boy was I wrong” in his game summaries and such.

 

[bac2therac]

If the season goes off the rails, will you come back and apologize to Bac for his predictions on the season? I think that would be only fair considering how much grief you've given him in recent weeks.

He is a creep with a stalker obsession. Expect more of the same from him until they increase his medication

 

[bac2therac]

People place bets on their predictions and opinions and he professes strong ones. My obvious point, no one knows how this team will end up next season , but when you act like an expert and constantly think you're always right you deserve a reality check. Let's see what happens.

Have you accepted Pat Hobbs was banging the gymnastic coach or is Rutgers still paying you to obfuscate that situation. Julie always said you were a live one.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

What about this roster says he's wrong?

They took a PG who would still be looking for a team in June, a big that literally couldn't get on the floor at two different schools, a Euro who no one knows if he can play at the high major level and the final addition is not expected to be anything that wows us.

I get some of you want to live off the hopium that things magically come together but it's really going to be like the first two seasons when Pike was trying to get out from under the Eddie Jordan stink.

Correct. On paper, things do not look good at all, but the thing about basketball is that sometimes a few things going better than expected can make a big difference.

Fluox is right though in that the gloom and doom being posted makes it seem like we are back where Eddie Jordan left off. Pike is more comfortable coaching the type of roster we’ll have next season. He’s good at making more with less. Not good at getting the most out of potential when he has it. This evaluation is evident in his history at Rutgers. He’s never won less than 14 games here. That includes the season he inherited a 7 win team.

I imagine BAC will defend his 13 win Vegas line prediction by pointing out, correctly, that those early teams played historically poor OOC schedules which won’t be possible given the Vegas tournament we’ll play in. This is also true, so we’ll just have to see what happens.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

Fluox is right though in that the gloom and doom being posted makes it seem like we are back where Eddie Jordan left off. Pike is more comfortable coaching the type of roster we’ll have next season. He’s good at making more with less. Not good at getting the most out of potential when he has it. This evaluation is evident in his history at Rutgers. He’s never won less than 14 games here. That includes the season he inherited a 7 win team.

The highlighted is classic nonsense that fans dream up and try to propagate as truth. Just like “Schiano liked small, quick DTs” until Greg cleared the air and said that was all he could recruit otherwise he would have brought in the more stereotypical DTs which we see now.

Pike has not been able to recruit the elite players until recently. And when we had Dylan & Ace last year, with NIL being a prime factor, he couldn’t put together an adequate roster around them because of the limited bankroll.

The one thing many of you are not building into the equation when making this false comment is that with NIL driving everything the teams they will be facing will be significantly better. That’s why it’s not going to be pretty. You can inhale all the hopium you want right now, I’m not doing that this year. It’s easy to see where this is headed.

 

[ru66]

Have you accepted Pat Hobbs was banging the gymnastic coach or is Rutgers still paying you to obfuscate that situation. Julie always said you were a live one

What's wiih your dumb and simple mined ,weak attacks about taking meds. By the way for someone that saves crap from 40 years ago and is a hoarder, you're the one needing help. Geez try something original. Go back and read my posts, along with many reasonable and fair people ,unlike yourself who immediately attacks coaches,players, RU, I said wait before " convicting" him and I'd say that agsin. By the way were you one the few idiots that enjoyed or spoke to her?

 

[bac2therac]

What's wiih your dumb and simple mined ,weak attacks about taking meds. By the way for someone that saves crap from 40 years ago and is a hoarder, you're the one needing help. Geez try something original. Go back and read my posts, along with many reasonable and fair people ,unlike yourself who immediately attacks coaches,players, RU, I said wait before " convicting" him and I'd say that agsin. By the way were you one the few idiots that enjoyed or spoke to her?

You have not brought any analysis here in 20 years besides acting as board police and being the CEO of the I hate Julie Hermann Corp

 

[ru66]

Honestly, what purpose does it serve Rutgers to, ad nauseum , tell us we're gonna be losers, why you shouldn't renew tickets or give to your school. It's not close to being " constructive " .The irony is the same folks that are the biggest critics are those that have professed 100 times how they're completely loss interest and it's hopeless . Seems like they want to be right even if it hurts RU. Don't you just love people who kick when one is down.

 

[ru66]

You have not brought any analysis here in 20 years besides acting as board police and being the CEO of the I hate Julie Hermann Corp

Here's your analysis, RU sucks, the coaches suck, the hotdogs suck , I'm a number 3 bracketologist, Julie was wonderful , every recruit will be ineffective ,I know it all, clean the sidewalk, the ticket office sucks, student volunteers suck -- there are literally thousands more. And through it all you really have no inside info--- here's the truth,if you ever paid attention many of us have selectively given info out about players having illnesses or injuries, the status of employment searches and what's happening on campus and lots more. All you have spewed out for 20 years is bullshyt attacks on everyhing RU. I'll say it over and over ,does RU need enemies when you have " friends" like you and who wants to be in the proverbial foxhole with you. Try giving when we're down.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The reasons why last year's hype train went off the rails, was based on 3 BAD theories that were put on the board and never made any sense.

A) Zach Martini would be a good addition, because he "can space the floor, and hit 3s"....

This was based on the "Pike doesn't run an offense or "set screens", for supposedly will work for ANY subpar players who cannot generate their own shot OR cannot do anything else at a high level in the B1G.....why was this hyped up last year?? Because it was based on a dumb basketball narrative that "Dylan and Ace will do all the work and draw double teams, leaving Martini wide open....."......LMAO

Once teams decided to let Ace and Dylan score and guarded Martini like a normal player, he offered nothing else on a B1G level, beyond an open shot attempt.....he was not a B1G caliber defender, rebounder, playmaker, or did NOT generate any individual offense or defensive playmaking. He had 7 good games out of 33 in total, if we are judging his overall season. That was 100% on Pike listening to Ivy league pop-pom people.

B) Acuff would be a nice scoring threat.....that "could have" happened, except Acuff broke his foot and missed 4 months and essentially ALL workouts, training, conditioning and team workouts. He was the best of the portal pickups and even during the season, did not look to be fluid or moving well. Even with that, he should have been the complimentary 3rd scoring option from the beginning of the season. You can't pick up defense, rotations, understanding concepts by missing 4 months of essential training summer.

C) Miscalculation on how badly a miss it was, to not get a 3 & D wing via the portal. We tried to get Jadon Jones from Long Beach State, but he opted for more money at Oklahoma and fit the ideal protocol, as a late portal entry. IF he had entered the portal earlier MAYBE we dont take Jordan Derkack and have the funds for Jones, but Jones wound up getting injured and missed the season......we wind up with PJ Hayes, another Ivy League caliber player, who did not offer any other team strengths, other than the potential 3 point shot.....not a playmaker, rebounder, defender etc.....

Once you add those 3 huge items to the offseason, that most mods (Martini specifically) thought would work, we were sunk.

I can't even blame all of these items on circumstances.....We actually pursued other subpar defensive players like Matt Allocco from Princeton, who had a "eh" season at ND around 10PPG and a more advanced level of PJ Hayes.........he was abused on defense most of the year at and wouldn't have helped, so even if we got Allocco AND Martini, neither was a B1G caliber player or playmaker......the choices made last spring were BAD players.....that didnt fit how RU needed to play.

The overall problem is how badly underrated this 2025 freshman class is.....and that's where the problems with pessimistic people come from.....and that's where some fans are going to eat a lot of their words for 2025-26.

I feel 1000% better about this portal and freshman class, because the tape indicates there are shot makers and play makers and good defenders at most spots. We addressed rebounding, defense and hustle with Buchanan, Nwuli, Mark and Fall (more of a risk, but worth a shot)

Keep in mind, Grant and Sommerville got around a combined 14PPG and 7 RPG on an average of 20 MPG as freshman.....

Why are we assuming that those numbers cannot be delivered, with Chris Nwuli and Baye Fall or Lino Mark and Zrno in the same amount of minutes, with MORE shot attempts available to them??

It is HIGHLY unlikely that Lino Mark, Zrno and Nwuli average less than 8PPG, if they play 20MPG.....there's opportunities and shots to be made and converted. This is closer to the RHJ, Mathis, Caleb 2018-19 season, with Buchanan in the Eugene role, Fall in the Myles Johnson role and more guards to be in the Geo Baker role.

That team (I think) went 7-10 in the B1G, before the Iowa miracle 3 from Weiskamp and finished with 4 straight losses. I'm certain that these freshman, especially Kaden Powers, are being overlooked. Notice I didnt even mention, Tariq Francis ......

This roster has potential to make real noise in 2026-27, IF we pick up 2 to 3 solid HS recruits, to backfill any transfers out of the program after 2025-26......i feel like there is less reliance on the portal in a year and YES we still need more funds, but there's a path towards success, with recruiting high school players and retaining MOST of them, over a 4 to 5 year period.

 

[NickRU714]

The highlighted is classic nonsense that fans dream up and try to propagate as truth. Just like “Schiano liked small, quick DTs” until Greg cleared the air and said that was all he could recruit otherwise he would have brought in the more stereotypical DTs which we see now.

100%

It used to be "Rutgers and HC Pike actually don't want one and done players. That's not the type of program Pike wants to run. One and done players isn't what Rutgers basketball is about. We're not Duke or Kentucky. Look at how Coach K sold his soul and went the one and done route. It's not what college basketball should be about."

The defense for a coach being "He's not good with talented players" isn't exactly a great omen for the future.

 

[bac2therac]

Here's your analysis, RU sucks, the coaches suck, the hotdogs suck , I'm a number 3 bracketologist, Julie was wonderful , every recruit will be ineffective ,I know it all, clean the sidewalk, the ticket office sucks, student volunteers suck -- there are literally thousands more. And through it all you really have no inside info--- here's the truth,if you ever paid attention many of us have selectively given info out about players having illnesses or injuries, the status of employment searches and what's happening on campus and lots more. All you have spewed out for 20 years is bullshyt attacks on everyhing RU. I'll say it over and over ,does RU need enemies when you have " friends" like you and who wants to be in the proverbial foxhole with you. Try giving when we're down.

 

[bac2therac]

The reasons why last year's hype train went off the rails, was based on 3 BAD theories that were put on the board and never made any sense.

A) Zach Martini would be a good addition, because he "can space the floor, and hit 3s"....

This was based on the "Pike doesn't run an offense or "set screens", for supposedly will work for ANY subpar players who cannot generate their own shot OR cannot do anything else at a high level in the B1G.....why was this hyped up last year?? Because it was based on a dumb basketball narrative that "Dylan and Ace will do all the work and draw double teams, leaving Martini wide open....."......LMAO

Once teams decided to let Ace and Dylan score and guarded Martini like a normal player, he offered nothing else on a B1G level, beyond an open shot attempt.....he was not a B1G caliber defender, rebounder, playmaker, or did NOT generate any individual offense or defensive playmaking. He had 7 good games out of 33 in total, if we are judging his overall season. That was 100% on Pike listening to Ivy league pop-pom people.

B) Acuff would be a nice scoring threat.....that "could have" happened, except Acuff broke his foot and missed 4 months and essentially ALL workouts, training, conditioning and team workouts. He was the best of the portal pickups and even during the season, did not look to be fluid or moving well. Even with that, he should have been the complimentary 3rd scoring option from the beginning of the season. You can't pick up defense, rotations, understanding concepts by missing 4 months of essential training summer.

C) Miscalculation on how badly a miss it was, to not get a 3 & D wing via the portal. We tried to get Jadon Jones from Long Beach State, but he opted for more money at Oklahoma and fit the ideal protocol, as a late portal entry. IF he had entered the portal earlier MAYBE we dont take Jordan Derkack and have the funds for Jones, but Jones wound up getting injured and missed the season......we wind up with PJ Hayes, another Ivy League caliber player, who did not offer any other team strengths, other than the potential 3 point shot.....not a playmaker, rebounder, defender etc.....

Once you add those 3 huge items to the offseason, that most mods (Martini specifically) thought would work, we were sunk.

I can't even blame all of these items on circumstances.....We actually pursued other subpar defensive players like Matt Allocco from Princeton, who had a "eh" season at ND around 10PPG and a more advanced level of PJ Hayes.........he was abused on defense most of the year at and wouldn't have helped, so even if we got Allocco AND Martini, neither was a B1G caliber player or playmaker......the choices made last spring were BAD players.....that didnt fit how RU needed to play.

The overall problem is how badly underrated this 2025 freshman class is.....and that's where the problems with pessimistic people come from.....and that's where some fans are going to eat a lot of their words for 2025-26.

I feel 1000% better about this portal and freshman class, because the tape indicates there are shot makers and play makers and good defenders at most spots. We addressed rebounding, defense and hustle with Buchanan, Nwuli, Mark and Fall (more of a risk, but worth a shot)

Keep in mind, Grant and Sommerville got around a combined 14PPG and 7 RPG on an average of 20 MPG as freshman.....

Why are we assuming that those numbers cannot be delivered, with Chris Nwuli and Baye Fall or Lino Mark and Zrno in the same amount of minutes, with MORE shot attempts available to them??

It is HIGHLY unlikely that Lino Mark, Zrno and Nwuli average less than 8PPG, if they play 20MPG.....there's opportunities and shots to be made and converted. This is closer to the RHJ, Mathis, Caleb 2018-19 season, with Buchanan in the Eugene role, Fall in the Myles Johnson role and more guards to be in the Geo Baker role.

That team (I think) went 7-10 in the B1G, before the Iowa miracle 3 from Weiskamp and finished with 4 straight losses. I'm certain that these freshman, especially Kaden Powers, are being overlooked. Notice I didnt even mention, Tariq Francis ......

This roster has potential to make real noise in 2026-27, IF we pick up 2 to 3 solid HS recruits, to backfill any transfers out of the program after 2025-26......i feel like there is less reliance on the portal in a year and YES we still need more funds, but there's a path towards success, with recruiting high school players and retaining MOST of them, over a 4 to 5 year period.

this is totally disregarding that players are looking for bags...the liklihood of keeping playing who were decent this year is small...could we keep a couple...yes but if some freshmen blows up big time, they are gone...

less reliance on the portal...how can you even say that...college hoops is almost entirely about the portal now...did last year having 2 nba players teach you that lesson

 

[Rhuarc]

Would he or you do the same? He hasn't done that in the past when wrong.

I would always man up to being wrong. Besides, I want to be wrong. I want Rutgers to be successful, that's why I have season tickets, don't cheap out and pay parking and donate to NIL.

I can't speak for Bac, but he's manned up to other takes before why would this be any different? I don't see how people can see positivity in our hoops offseason this year. I'm sorry, but I don't. We have a bunch of 2nd and 3rd string transfers coming in, a possible deep threat and we're relying on freshmen and sophomores to take huge leaps. I doubt this will be Eddie Jordan bad, but I think it's going to be pretty bad.

 

[RUChoppin]

In my opinion, our current positioning is very similar to where we were entering the 2018-19 season. Is that pretty fair? Worse is some ways, but maybe positioned a little better in a few others (for instance, more experienced ball handlers - Corey had handled the point in Geo’s frosh season). Reliant on a lot of frosh. Ogbole sort resembles Shaq Doorson - that was the extent of experience at center (Carter and MJ in their first years). Eugene had shown some flashes the prior year but to that point he wasn’t anything special. Remember - we were a bad team and he didn’t even put up 8 ppg. We were relying on frosh to come in and deliver and our frosh class turned out to be good. Nobody was a double digit scorer off the bat - but they were solid.

I don't see this at all.

2018-19 season, by minutes played for Rutgers prior to the season:
Returners:
(1556 min, 65 games) Thiam - Junior, entering 3rd year in Pike's system
(1089 min, 64 games) Omoruyi - Rising Jr, entering 3rd year in Pikiell's system, coming off a sophomore season that was showing improvement and then ran into injuries
(1044 min, 33 games) Baker - Sophomore, coming off a surprisingly strong freshman season
(931 min, 90 games) Doorson - 5th yr Senior, 3rd year under Pike
(444 min, 34 games) Doucoure - Sophomore
(0 min, RS yr) Johnson - Redshirt frosh coming off a year in Pike's system where Pike said he could have played in prior season
(0 min, RS yr) Kiss - Transfer sophomore coming off a redshirt year in Pike's system from MAAC (1 prior game vs major conf)

Newcomers:
(0 min) Mathis - 4 star frosh (Rivals 150)
(0 min) Harper - 4 star frosh (Rivals 150)
(0 min) McConnell - frosh
(0 min) Carter - Juco transfer

7 guys had practiced together the prior year (Baker, Omoruyi, Doorson, Johnson, Doucoure, Kiss, Thiam), with 4 going into their 3rd year with Pike.... and the two freshmen that saw significant minutes that year (Harper/Mathis) were 4-star Rivals 150 recruits.

This season, by total prior Rutgers minutes played:
Returners:
(1281 min, 63 games) Davis - Rising junior, entering 3rd year in Pike's system
(394min, 21 games ) Grant - Rising soph, entering 2nd year in Pike's system
(386 min, 33 games) Ogbole - Rising senior, entering 3rd year in Pike's system
(78 min, 12 games) Dortch - Rising soph, entering 2nd year in PIke's system

Newcomers:
(0 min) Buchanon - 1806 min across 2 years in the A10, with just 2 career games vs major conf teams (1 B12, 1 SEC)
(0 min) Francis - 1678 min across 2 years in the AEC, with 4 career games vs major conf teams (2 ACC, 2 BE)
(0 min) Fall - 71 total min played across 2 years at P4 level
(0 min) Nwuli - 4-star frosh (Rivals 150)
(0 min) Zrno - 3-star frosh, 21yo player from overseas with no intercollegiate experience
(0 min) Ware - 3-star frosh
(0 min) Mark - 3-star frosh
(0 min) Powers - 3-star frosh

Just 4 guys played together with Pike last year (Davis, Grant, Ogbole, Dortch), with just 1 going into his 3rd year with Pike and 2 having a a full season's worth of games in scarlet. None of the incoming transfers have more than scant experience playing teams at the B1G level.

Hard to compare those two seasons, to me.

 

[cicero grimes]

The question will be, if we are below .500, will we be in a spot to make a change

That will be up to the new AD

We finish below .500 I have to think the pike era is over. A new ad will want to put their stamp on the program.

 

[RUDivision]

They will no doubt play better defense because it can’t get worse. The Pike apologists and analytic guys will post ad nauseam that Pikes figure it out! (Lol). We currently have 1 power 4 player on the team. The best thing about next year is it will be Pikes last!

The posts should be centered on our coaching search not on a coach who destroyed the program

 

[ScarletJocko]

I don't see any real chance at Pike getting fired next year even if they only win 1-3 B1G games. RU is not an institution where you come in as an AD and make a big expensive firing.

Now, if Pike completely bottoms out next year which very well may be the case, AND his '24 + '25 HS recruiting class bails on the program and transfers then yes, I do see 26-27 season as effectively a lame duck last season and our slow moving athletic dept. will get the ducks lined up to turn the page on the Pike era

 

[RUDivision]

I don't see any real chance at Pike getting fired next year even if they only win 1-3 B1G games. RU is not an institution where you come in as an AD and make a big expensive firing.

Now, if Pike completely bottoms out next year which very well may be the case, AND his '24 + '25 HS recruiting class bails on the program and transfers then yes, I do see 26-27 season as effectively a lame duck last season and our slow moving athletic dept. will get the ducks lined up to turn the page on the Pike era

Any AD being interviewed is already making it clear on what changes they are going to make after they are hired. Any competent AD would be laying out their plan prior to taking the job. Pike is a good defensive coach who caught lighting in a bottle for 2 years and was helped by a pandemic. His salary, lack of production, and historic awful season last year sealed his fate. Great guy but it’s over

 

[RUChoppin]

Pike is a good defensive coach who caught lighting in a bottle for 2 years and was helped by a pandemic.

Not sure how he was especially helped by the pandemic. Imo, he was hurt more than he was helped.

The pandemic added an extra year of eligibility - but we only got to take advantage of that for 3 players (Baker, McConnell, Hyatt), and two of those extra years were in seasons we missed the tourney anyway. In exchange, we missed out on probably our best tournament shot - including recruiting off that tournament appearance and benefiting from a year's worth of tournament experience leading into 2020-21. During the same span, several of our opponents got as much (or more) advantage with extra covid years as we did.

2019-20 would have been Rutgers' first tournament in decades, with an expected 9 seed, but the pandemic cancelled the Dance.
2020-21 would have been the same team as we had, which was a tournament 10 seed.
2021-22 would have lost Baker a year earlier (significant... good chance we'd have missed the First Four, but that would have been dependent on who he was replaced with)
2022-23 would have lost McConnell a year earlier (significant... but we missed the tourney that year anyway)
2023-24 would have lost Hyatt a year earlier (missed the tourney anyway)
2024-25 wouldn't have mattered.

 

[fluoxetine]

And then this is my personal opinion, but I think Pike’s defense is gimmicky and good teams have figured out it is not hard to defeat with ball movement. As college becomes more like the pros, with more focus on getting more good 3 point looks, Pike is a dinosaur, who can’t stop teams that shoot lots of threes.

This is pretty silly considering we had the #5 defense TWO YEARS AGO and the #6 defense the year before that. Disclaiming something as your “personal opinion” doesn’t make it non ridiculous

 

[fluoxetine]

Not sure how he was especially helped by the pandemic. Imo, he was hurt more than he was helped.

The pandemic added an extra year of eligibility - but we only got to take advantage of that for 3 players (Baker, McConnell, Hyatt), and two of those extra years were in seasons we missed the tourney anyway. In exchange, we missed out on probably our best tournament shot - including recruiting off that tournament appearance and benefiting from a year's worth of tournament experience leading into 2020-21. During the same span, several of our opponents got as much (or more) advantage with extra covid years as we did.

2019-20 would have been Rutgers' first tournament in decades, with an expected 9 seed, but the pandemic cancelled the Dance.
2020-21 would have been the same team as we had, which was a tournament 10 seed.
2021-22 would have lost Baker a year earlier (significant... good chance we'd have missed the First Four, but that would have been dependent on who he was replaced with)
2022-23 would have lost McConnell a year earlier (significant... but we missed the tourney that year anyway)
2023-24 would have lost Hyatt a year earlier (missed the tourney anyway)
2024-25 wouldn't have mattered.

There is literally no evidence the pandemic helped Rutgers. He points to some players we got to keep longer while neglecting the fact that literally every player on every team got the same extra eligibility year. When you add on the fact that he doesn’t count that as a tournament year because there was no tournament then the argument becomes even more absurd; yes cancelling the tournament for what was probably his best team.. definitely helpful!

 

[fluoxetine]

There is no reality for this post when you are talking about few lucky bounces from fringe bubble team

The likely Vegas line sits at 13-18

Almost every team plays a number of close games. For most 13-18 teams you could probably change the result of <10 plays to make them 18-13 and similarly 8-23. Of course there will be some teams that won or lost all their close games and thus can only go one way with that but the margins are generally pretty thin.

Even this year..

Change one play against Princeton, one against Michigan, a couple against Bama, boom you are 18-13.

Similarly change one against Seton Hall, Washington, Minnesota and we are 12-19

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I don't see this at all.

2018-19 season, by minutes played for Rutgers prior to the season:
Returners:
(1556 min, 65 games) Thiam - Junior, entering 3rd year in Pike's system
(1089 min, 64 games) Omoruyi - Rising Jr, entering 3rd year in Pikiell's system, coming off a sophomore season that was showing improvement and then ran into injuries
(1044 min, 33 games) Baker - Sophomore, coming off a surprisingly strong freshman season
(931 min, 90 games) Doorson - 5th yr Senior, 3rd year under Pike
(444 min, 34 games) Doucoure - Sophomore
(0 min, RS yr) Johnson - Redshirt frosh coming off a year in Pike's system where Pike said he could have played in prior season
(0 min, RS yr) Kiss - Transfer sophomore coming off a redshirt year in Pike's system from MAAC (1 prior game vs major conf)

Newcomers:
(0 min) Mathis - 4 star frosh (Rivals 150)
(0 min) Harper - 4 star frosh (Rivals 150)
(0 min) McConnell - frosh
(0 min) Carter - Juco transfer

7 guys had practiced together the prior year (Baker, Omoruyi, Doorson, Johnson, Doucoure, Kiss, Thiam), with 4 going into their 3rd year with Pike.... and the two freshmen that saw significant minutes that year (Harper/Mathis) were 4-star Rivals 150 recruits.

This season, by total prior Rutgers minutes played:
Returners:
(1281 min, 63 games) Davis - Rising junior, entering 3rd year in Pike's system
(394min, 21 games ) Grant - Rising soph, entering 2nd year in Pike's system
(386 min, 33 games) Ogbole - Rising senior, entering 3rd year in Pike's system
(78 min, 12 games) Dortch - Rising soph, entering 2nd year in PIke's system

Newcomers:
(0 min) Buchanon - 1806 min across 2 years in the A10, with just 2 career games vs major conf teams (1 B12, 1 SEC)
(0 min) Francis - 1678 min across 2 years in the AEC, with 4 career games vs major conf teams (2 ACC, 2 BE)
(0 min) Fall - 71 total min played across 2 years at P4 level
(0 min) Nwuli - 4-star frosh (Rivals 150)
(0 min) Zrno - 3-star frosh, 21yo player from overseas with no intercollegiate experience
(0 min) Ware - 3-star frosh
(0 min) Mark - 3-star frosh
(0 min) Powers - 3-star frosh

Just 4 guys played together with Pike last year (Davis, Grant, Ogbole, Dortch), with just 1 going into his 3rd year with Pike and 2 having a a full season's worth of games in scarlet. None of the incoming transfers have more than scant experience playing teams at the B1G level.

Hard to compare those two seasons, to me.

I was referring strictly to talent level / skill potential. I think the two teams have similar forward looking potential entering the respective season.

Also - I don’t think Thiam’s 29 mpg or Duke’s 13 mpg in 2017-18 mattered at all the following season. They were not really contributors on that team. MJ was in Rutgers system but had not yet played a single possession. J Mike brings an extra year of experience at Rutgers compared to Geo. J Mike arguably will have learned what Pike wants from him as a PG over 2 seasons. Geo played the 2 his first 2 seasons. Grant has one less year compared to Eugene.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

This is pretty silly considering we had the #5 defense TWO YEARS AGO and the #6 defense the year before that. Disclaiming something as your “personal opinion” doesn’t make it non ridiculous

Bruh, the numbers can be deceiving. They couldn’t stop Stonehill with 6 scholarship players and a bunch of walk-ons ran a layup drill against us. One game Purdue pulled most of their starters with over 10 minutes to go because they were beating us so badly. That wasn’t a good team and it didn’t have a good defense.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Almost every team plays a number of close games. For most 13-18 teams you could probably change the result of <10 plays to make them 18-13 and similarly 8-23. Of course there will be some teams that won or lost all their close games and thus can only go one way with that but the margins are generally pretty thin.

Even this year..

Change one play against Princeton, one against Michigan, a couple against Bama, boom you are 18-13.

Similarly change one against Seton Hall, Washington, Minnesota and we are 12-19

I agree with the concept broadly, however, I think your floor is a bit low considering we probably won’t have games like Kennesaw or Princeton on the schedule. It’ll likely be 7 cupcakes at home, plus if we lose the first two games in Vegas the third opponent will also be a team that lost twice. Even with the negative outlook things would have really hit a dumpster fire for us not to win more than 8.

 

[fluoxetine]

Bruh, the numbers can be deceiving. They couldn’t stop Stonehill with 6 scholarship players and a bunch of walk-ons ran a layup drill against us. One game Purdue pulled most of their starters with over 10 minutes to go because they were beating us so badly. That wasn’t a good team and it didn’t have a good defense.

You’re ******* dumb and Stonehill only scored 58 points.

You don’t get the #5 ranked defense while “not having a good defense” that is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen someone write, good god.

 

[fluoxetine]

I agree with the concept broadly, however, I think your floor is a bit low considering we probably won’t have games like Kennesaw or Princeton on the schedule. It’ll likely be 7 cupcakes at home, plus if we lose the first two games in Vegas the third opponent will also be a team that lost twice. Even with the negative outlook things would have really hit a dumpster fire for us not to win more than 8.

I mean it’s super unlikely for a team to win or lose all of its close games so it’s always a bit deceiving. IN THEORY you can usually contrive a 5 game swing by changing <= 10 possessions though.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

You’re ****ing dumb and Stonehill only scored 58 points.

You don’t get the #5 ranked defense while “not having a good defense” that is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen someone write, good god.Ehat

I could have beat Stonehill by 20 with a bunch of guys from Rucker Park.

If our defense was so suffocating in 2023-24, which games did we make our mark? The answer is none of them.

 

[fluoxetine]

I could have beat Stonehill by 20 with a bunch of guys from Rucker Park.

If our defense was so suffocating in 2023-24, which games did we make our mark? The answer is none of them.

Bro, we had the 5th ranked defense. This “sure no one was able to score against us but trust me the defense sucked” would sound silly coming from a 5 year old, much less a supposedly grown man who has watched a basketball game before.

Virtually every game we won was won off the back of the defense because WE HAD AN ABSURDLY BAD OFFENSE. With an average defense that team would’ve won <10 games. Literally everyone who is not twisting themselves in knots trying to make themselves more miserable knows this.

 

[RUChoppin]

So, looking at Buchanan and Francis, there's very little to look at with regard to high major opponents.

Buchanan's high major experience are games @South Carolina and Kansas St. Per bart, he's had 4 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (VCU and Boise St last year, South Carolina and Dayton the year before).

Francis' high major experience are games @Miami, @Wake, @SHU, and @Villanova. Per bart, he's had just 2 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (Nova last year, Wake the year before).

Then there's Baye Fall, who's had just 2 games with double digit minutes (11 min vs. Cleveland State, 10 min vs. Gardner-Webb). Through 2 seasons he's averaging 8.5 fouls per 40 minutes and has attempted just 15 FTs (none last year across 26 minutes).

The incoming transfers aren't inspiring a lot of confidence, tbh. And I'm thinking we may be done adding right now with 12 scholarship players.

 

[ancienthooper]

Any AD being interviewed is already making it clear on what changes they are going to make after they are hired. Any competent AD would be laying out their plan prior to taking the job. Pike is a good defensive coach who caught lighting in a bottle for 2 years and was helped by a pandemic. His salary, lack of production, and historic awful season last year sealed his fate. Great guy but it’s over

Ooof. “Destroyed the program and helped by the pandemic.” Posts that make day drinking look like a bad thing.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Bruh, the numbers can be deceiving. They couldn’t stop Stonehill with 6 scholarship players and a bunch of walk-ons ran a layup drill against us. One game Purdue pulled most of their starters with over 10 minutes to go because they were beating us so badly: that wasn’t a good team and it did t have a good defense.

Huh? Stonehill shot 31% from the floor against them. That’s not exactly good.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Bro, we had the 5th ranked defense. This “sure no one was able to score against us but trust me the defense sucked” would sound silly coming from a 5 year old, much less a supposedly grown man who has watched a basketball game before.

Virtually every game we won was won off the back of the defense because WE HAD AN ABSURDLY BAD OFFENSE. With an average defense that team would’ve won <10 games. Literally everyone who is not twisting themselves in knots trying to make themselves more miserable knows thi

Bruh, no one was getting amped up to play Rutgers, and a bunch of teams still had their way with us. If u throw out the 2 Michigan games (and they were a major underachieving team that eventually led to the coach being fired) and one bad game from Wisconsin, most good teams just rolled through us. Purdue had a 96 point game (which would have easily been well over 100 if they didn’t pull all of their starters), Illinois went for 86 and 76 in two very easy wins, Iowa torched us for 86, Minnesota had an 81 point game, Wisky took it to us in the rematch with 78, Ohio State had 76 and 73, and Waie Forest had 76 and Michigan state had 73 in easy victories. Are defense generally could not do anything against good teams.