THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-NEBRASKA PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
A monumental effort and result.
RU 80 Neb 79
RU 80 Neb 79
Flux, check bac’s prediction. No dupes!
Nebraska is like those prime pike teams. Very beatable at home but almost impossible to beat on their court. Wish this was a home game.
A win here would say a whole but I’m not buying it yet - a very young starting five that’s gets off to slow starts does not bode well at a place where the home team has won 22 straight games - 80-69 Nebraska
Likely a close game, win or lose.
IMO, RU has played a tougher schedule. Like RU, Nebraska is a mediocre shooting team, and not dominant on the offensive glass. Nebraska also tends to turn it over a bit. They shoot FTs well.
In recent games against common opponents, Nebraska beat UCLA by 8, and got crushed at Purdue by 36 points. At home, they did beat Indiana but we played that game on the road without Dylan.
Like most games, a lot will depend on matchups and how well the studs play on each team. Nebraska probably has the better bench, and of course, they’re at home.
I see the winning margin at 6 points or less.
Head says NE 73-69, Heart says RU 69-65.
IMO, RU has played a tougher schedule. Like RU, Nebraska is a mediocre shooting team, and not dominant on the offensive glass. Nebraska also tends to turn it over a bit. They shoot FTs well.
In recent games against common opponents, Nebraska beat UCLA by 8, and got crushed at Purdue by 36 points. At home, they did beat Indiana but we played that game on the road without Dylan.
Like most games, a lot will depend on matchups and how well the studs play on each team. Nebraska probably has the better bench, and of course, they’re at home.
I see the winning margin at 6 points or less.
Head says NE 73-69, Heart says RU 69-65.
Yes, but teams that win road games are those more likely to get NCAA bids.The only Rutgers road win was against Notre Dame in Las Vegas by one point.
Idk despite the win the other day I didn't see much to think we're gonna go on a tear. More like, we'll win the occasional game.
Nebraska 87
Rutgers 69
Nebraska 87
Rutgers 69
I mostly agree, with some exceptions. The game was definitely kinda ugly, which I attribute to the UCLA press and them fouling us a lot.
Plus, Dylan only played 24 minutes, when he would normally play at least 32 minutes.
That said, we had 10 offensive rebounds and 7 blocked shots, and only 10 turnovers for the game.
I also liked our switches on D, which looked the best I’ve seen this year.
So, some reason for optimism going forward, imo.
Nebraska 85 RU 70
Gavin Griffiths comes off the bench and hits a bunch of 3 pointers to rub salt in our wounds.
Gavin Griffiths comes off the bench and hits a bunch of 3 pointers to rub salt in our wounds.
I've made peace with myself that this season is a lost cause, and fully expect to lose big tonight.
But this would put me over the edge man. Just no.
Here is what I do know and is supported by the eye test. RU has been sloppy with turnovers and ironically, most (to me) are not forced by the opponent....it is JWill slipping or stumbles because of the crappy Adidas shoes (Sorry I had to put that in here, just the facts) and most are player related.
Why did Pike finally pull the plug on starting JMike, JWill and bolt Derkack to the bench?? Because most nights, the turnover trend is consistently tied to sloppy play at guard....
I have also a bunch of turnovers with Ace and Dylan, but most of those are iso-related where Dylan Harper tries a split of a double team or barrels into a defender in the paint (UCLA). I can live with a stopped play turnover (charge or something), but the unfortunate unforced ones, are killers.
Now 9.5 point spread....seems awfully high but we are starting 4 freshman on the road and 2 haven't started a road game in Lathan and Grant. Here are the Nebraska turnover amounts in games of note. With reasonable Pike level defense, we should be able to turn Nebraska over.....get some runout baskets and see what happens.
11 at Sparty
14 at Iowa
13 vs UCLA
14 vs Indiana
12 vs Oregon State
17 at Purdue
RU turnovers on the other hand (to me) are hit or miss......the more we try to run some detailed play with others who don't need to handle the ball a ton (JMike, Derkack and JWill), the turnovers "should not", be a high turnover game.
9 vs Bama
16 vs A&M (4 Ace, 4 JWill, 2 Martini, Derkack).
14 Ohio State (4 Ace, 3 Dylan, 3 JWill, 2 Lathan)
12 Princeton (4 Ace, 3 Dylan, 3 Derkack)
11 Indiana (3 Lathan, 3 JWill)
8 Wisconsin (4 Derkack)
16 Purdue (3 Ace, 3 JMike, 2 JWill, 2 Dylan Harper)
UCLA 10 (4 Dylan Harper).
Now if I take 11, 8 and 10 turnovers in 3 of the last 4 games, that's a trend I can live with. Purdue was a comedy show with JMike in the 1st 4 minutes with 3 by himself).
Now, can Acuff have a 4 turnover game?? Sure, but it's not because of dribbling into traffic (Derkack). A 3 point attempt, is better than a turnover.
To me, the lineup changes were not about matching up....it is about finding a role for Acuff to play alongside Dylan Harper and finding some 3 point shots.... AND....trying to reduce the amount of turnovers by JWill and JMike as starters....no idea how Derkack AND JWILL and JMike playing a combined 60 to 70 minutes, means RU has a lower turnover game.....especially with a built-in amount of turnovers with high wire acts Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper.
This next comment will drive RU fans crazy.....running ISO ball offense and taking shots, against a team like Nebraska, is your best path to winning.
Nebraska plays a much higher level of defense this year, around top 25 range in all of CBB...let me repeat....Top 25 range in defense (i think before the Purdue game).
So....if you run JWill, JMike and Derkack out there for 60 to 65 or 70 minutes against a higher caliber defense like Nebraska AND you want a high turnover prone backcourt of JWill slipping, JMike making crazy post passes and Derkack driving into traffic, good luck....
Running ISO and making Nebraska make individual defensive plays or sending help on Ace and Dylan, should find Acuff and others open to drive or hit shots......i want to see if Nebraska can defend without fouling...and getting to the FT line, which allows the pace to slow down and RU to set their defense.
If Nebraska turnovers are in the 13 to 15 range and RU is around 9 to 10, I'll take my chances.
Why did Pike finally pull the plug on starting JMike, JWill and bolt Derkack to the bench?? Because most nights, the turnover trend is consistently tied to sloppy play at guard....
I have also a bunch of turnovers with Ace and Dylan, but most of those are iso-related where Dylan Harper tries a split of a double team or barrels into a defender in the paint (UCLA). I can live with a stopped play turnover (charge or something), but the unfortunate unforced ones, are killers.
Now 9.5 point spread....seems awfully high but we are starting 4 freshman on the road and 2 haven't started a road game in Lathan and Grant. Here are the Nebraska turnover amounts in games of note. With reasonable Pike level defense, we should be able to turn Nebraska over.....get some runout baskets and see what happens.
11 at Sparty
14 at Iowa
13 vs UCLA
14 vs Indiana
12 vs Oregon State
17 at Purdue
RU turnovers on the other hand (to me) are hit or miss......the more we try to run some detailed play with others who don't need to handle the ball a ton (JMike, Derkack and JWill), the turnovers "should not", be a high turnover game.
9 vs Bama
16 vs A&M (4 Ace, 4 JWill, 2 Martini, Derkack).
14 Ohio State (4 Ace, 3 Dylan, 3 JWill, 2 Lathan)
12 Princeton (4 Ace, 3 Dylan, 3 Derkack)
11 Indiana (3 Lathan, 3 JWill)
8 Wisconsin (4 Derkack)
16 Purdue (3 Ace, 3 JMike, 2 JWill, 2 Dylan Harper)
UCLA 10 (4 Dylan Harper).
Now if I take 11, 8 and 10 turnovers in 3 of the last 4 games, that's a trend I can live with. Purdue was a comedy show with JMike in the 1st 4 minutes with 3 by himself).
Now, can Acuff have a 4 turnover game?? Sure, but it's not because of dribbling into traffic (Derkack). A 3 point attempt, is better than a turnover.
To me, the lineup changes were not about matching up....it is about finding a role for Acuff to play alongside Dylan Harper and finding some 3 point shots.... AND....trying to reduce the amount of turnovers by JWill and JMike as starters....no idea how Derkack AND JWILL and JMike playing a combined 60 to 70 minutes, means RU has a lower turnover game.....especially with a built-in amount of turnovers with high wire acts Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper.
This next comment will drive RU fans crazy.....running ISO ball offense and taking shots, against a team like Nebraska, is your best path to winning.
Nebraska plays a much higher level of defense this year, around top 25 range in all of CBB...let me repeat....Top 25 range in defense (i think before the Purdue game).
So....if you run JWill, JMike and Derkack out there for 60 to 65 or 70 minutes against a higher caliber defense like Nebraska AND you want a high turnover prone backcourt of JWill slipping, JMike making crazy post passes and Derkack driving into traffic, good luck....
Running ISO and making Nebraska make individual defensive plays or sending help on Ace and Dylan, should find Acuff and others open to drive or hit shots......i want to see if Nebraska can defend without fouling...and getting to the FT line, which allows the pace to slow down and RU to set their defense.
If Nebraska turnovers are in the 13 to 15 range and RU is around 9 to 10, I'll take my chances.
RU must lead the league in dribbling into the paint resulting in a held ball. Happens 3 x’s a a game
Nebraska 85, Rutgers 65 as Pike does not have his team prepared to play on the road as always. Probably be down 15 at half, maybe claw back to down 8. Pike goes on to praise Nebraska and say it is tough to win on the road in the B1G.
RU 75
Neb 72
Rutgers up 10 at the half and fends off a late run from Nebraska. Dylan and Ace shine with an assist from Acuff.
Neb 72
Rutgers up 10 at the half and fends off a late run from Nebraska. Dylan and Ace shine with an assist from Acuff.
As posted in an other thread, I think RU either wins a close game or loses by double digits.
As also posted: If RU is playing well enough to win, I think they WILL win. But if RU is not playing well enough to win I think Nebraska wins going away, by double digits ... maybe up double digits much of the game.
As also posted: If RU is playing well enough to win, I think they WILL win. But if RU is not playing well enough to win I think Nebraska wins going away, by double digits ... maybe up double digits much of the game.
I think it’s also possible we fall just short like we have in several other games this year. I would put the odds like this:
- Rutgers loses by 20+ points — 10%
- Rutgers loses by 10-19 points — 35%
- Rutgers loses by 1-9 points — 40%
- Rutgers wins by 1-5 points — 10%
- Rutgers wins by 6-9 points — 4%
- Rutgers wins by 10+ points — 1%
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