THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-IOWA PREDICTION THREAD

Eagleton95.99

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
7,562
6,490
113
Not a prediction...but a storyline might be the refs allowing Myles to play hard against Garza. A lot of influential voices have spoken up recently saying that Myles hasn't gotten the respect he deserves from the refs. Myles played pretty soft against Purdue, so that wasn't a real test. This is one matchup I'll be watching.
 

RUSCFORMERLYRULOU

All-American
Nov 12, 2017
5,607
7,244
103
Not a prediction...but a storyline might be the refs allowing Myles to play hard against Garza. A lot of influential voices have spoken up recently saying that Myles hasn't gotten the respect he deserves from the refs. Myles played pretty soft against Purdue, so that wasn't a real test. This is one matchup I'll be watching.
Uh, define influential
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
If RHJ plays,

RU 87
Iowa 84

If RHJ is out,

Iowa 89
RU 78
To that end:

Harper plays: RU 89,Iowa 75
If not: Iowa 91 RU 73
With RHJ: RU 81 Iowa 80
Without RHJ: RU 81 Iowa 80

Next man up has already been proven which is why this team is balanced.

These three posters think Harper is worth:
14 points/gm
32 points/gm
0 points/gm

I am not sure how many points he is worth, but I am pretty sure it's none of those.
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
As a rough estimate based on Torvik's PPRG numbers, I put Harper's worth at 4 points per game.
 

RUHouston

All-American
Jul 24, 2009
5,183
5,134
58
These three posters think Harper is worth:
14 points/gm
32 points/gm
0 points/gm

I am not sure how many points he is worth, but I am pretty sure it's none of those.
I didn’t say he was worth 0. He’s worth his average. But if he was invaluable then why didn’t we lose to Perdue by it? And why did we lose to Ohio State even though he played?

My opinion is the TEAM is greater than the sum of its parts. WITH him he accounts for his average. WITHOUT him someone else stepped up.

I don’t think the transitive properties are a guarantee which, to me, you’re implying.
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
I didn’t say he was worth 0. He’s worth his average.

I get that this is just a prediction thread and the scores people post are not necessarily what they deem to be the "fair line" or whatever, so I'm having a bit of fun.

That said, if you think that on average the score would be the same with him as without him that implies he's worth zero (as in, zero over the replacements, not that he is entirely worthless as a player).

But if he was invaluable then why didn’t we lose to Perdue by it? And why did we lose to Ohio State even though he played?

Variance? Certainly no one thinks that we can't win a game with him or lose one without him. And in the post you reply to in addition to yours I included two that were implying his loss was worth way too much.

My opinion is the TEAM is greater than the sum of its parts. WITH him he accounts for his average. WITHOUT him someone else stepped up.

I don’t think the transitive properties are a guarantee which, to me, you’re implying.

I think there is some rough transitivity to these things in general, yes, although for sure there are factors like how players fit together etc that will mean you can't always predict exactly the impact a player has by looking at their stats alone.

But again, it seems obviously wrong to me to imply the team is as good without him as it is with him.
 

Degaz-RU

Heisman
Dec 19, 2002
23,004
28,233
88
Without Harper:
Iowa 96
RU 82

With Harper:
Iowa - 91
RU - 85
(I think he'll be rusty/hobbled even if he plays)
 

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,355
11,286
113
With Ron and Cliff, RU 90 - Iowa 80
With Ron, but not Cliff, RU 89 - Iowa 80
w/o Ron and Cliff, RU 88 - Iowa 80
Some of you are taking about the hoops equivalent of WAR, wins against replacement.

I think we win. Full stop. We play shower without Ron than with so I predict lower scoring without him for both teams.
 

Degaz-RU

Heisman
Dec 19, 2002
23,004
28,233
88
Without Harper:
Iowa 96
RU 82

With Harper:
Iowa - 91
RU - 85
(I think he'll be rusty/hobbled even if he plays)

And before anybody misunderstands, with a fully-healthy Harper and Cliff:
Rutgers - 91
Iowa - 88
 

Scarlet Blind_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 5, 2001
4,731
4,806
62
1. RHJ IS playing against Iowa, no ifs/ands/buts. Pike knew he could beat Purdue without him and wanted him 💯 for Iowa. For whatever reason, he has his best games against Iowa 2018-19 H 16 pts R 27 pts 2019-20 R 29 pts(72/3), Illinois 79/4.

With that said, last year we lost 80-85 @ Iowa
FG 29-63 46% 2pt 22-42 52.4% 3pt 7-21 33%. FT 15-21 71.4%
Iowa 29-55 55.2% 2pt 20-30 66% 3pt 9-25 36% FT 18-25 72%
We are much better offensively this year and we are home.

Rutgers 101
Iowa 94
 

CranfordKnight

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2006
4,137
4,105
113
Not a prediction...but a storyline might be the refs allowing Myles to play hard against Garza. A lot of influential voices have spoken up recently saying that Myles hasn't gotten the respect he deserves from the refs. Myles played pretty soft against Purdue, so that wasn't a real test. This is one matchup I'll be watching.

You're probably going to be disappointed. Whatever slack they would normally give to MJ, if any, will be doubly offset by the insane amount of leeway they give to Garza. Expect to see multiple touch fouls on our bigs and half of your hair pulled out over the amount of elbows, hips and and feet shuffling Garza gets away with.
 

Night Man

All-Conference
Jan 8, 2006
29,783
3,710
113
Think we'd have a decent chance with a fully healthy roster. Without... Iowa 79 RU 75
 

mikefla

All-Conference
Nov 19, 2012
6,450
1,552
0
I believe in our guys....
.without Harpur
Rutgers 82
Iowa 74

With Harper
Rutgers 88
IOWA 71
 

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,469
49,418
113
This has been a tough matchup for Iowa over the last two years when we couldn't shoot the 3. This year we are vastly improved and at home. If Harper plays, we really should be confident sbout a victory. Without... still have a good shot. Oskar shooting open 3's against Iowa stinky D isn't the worst matchup for us to go to with no Harper.

With Harper double digit win. Without, single digit
 

LeapinLou

All-American
Jul 24, 2001
13,514
7,609
113
Does anybody remember a time when Bohannon WASN'T on Iowa? I swear the guy is in his 10th year.

I think he's the key. If Garza is pushing the ball back out to him and he's raining 3s, we're hosed. But if he has an off day, we could steal this one.
 
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