The facts

[Go Budaw]

1) As fans, the past two days (and most of the past 2 weeks) have sucked. No question.

2) Margin of victory means jack **** in baseball, in terms of postseason selection. Less than nothing....is literally never mentioned when comparing teams. Run-ruling is embarrassing, but it will not be looked at any differently by the committee than a 4-3 or 2-1 loss in either case.

3) Conference tournament games mean substantially less in the eyes of the committee than regular season games. This has been proven countless times throughout the years, with many examples noted already just today.

4) Our resume is still that of a Top 8 seed. The committee would have to buck a huge number of criteria trends over several seasons to deny us a spot. Conference strength and finish, RPI, quality wins, overall record....you can’t find 8 teams better for any of those criteria (let alone the composite of all of them, which is what it would take).

5) A national seed is important this year....more important than it’s ever been. Without one, we won’t play a super regional at home no matter what happens in the regionals.

We need to turn over a new leaf pretty damn soon. That’s all.

 

[thekimmer]

Yeah, you make some good points. We focus a lot on jeopardizing the national seed but the biggest concern is out of the last 8 games we have played we have lost 4 and looked absolutely dreadful in every loss.

 

[8dog]

I dont understand point 5.

 

[Go Budaw]

Yeah, you make some good points. We focus a lot on jeopardizing the national seed but the biggest concern is out of the last 8 games we have played we have lost 4 and looked absolutely dreadful in every loss.

Absolutely a concern. We have to be better. That’s just something that will play out naturally one way or the other, and it won’t take long for us to find out if these last 4 losses are an aberration or a regression towards the mean. No point in beating a dead horse any further on it.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I dont understand point 5.

COVID. Even if we weren't a National seed we could possibly host a super depending upon how the opposing regional host site's dominoes fell in a normal year. This year we can't. I think.

 

[Go Budaw]

COVID. Even if we weren't a National seed we could possibly host a super depending upon how the opposing regional host site's dominoes fell in a normal year. This year we can't. I think.

(Delete - double post).

 

[Go Budaw]

COVID. Even if we weren't a National seed we could possibly host a super depending upon how the opposing regional host site's dominoes fell in a normal year. This year we can't. I think.

Correct. If we don’t get a natty seed, and the natty seed opposite us gets knocked off, we still play a true neutral site super regional at their place.

 

[MSUDC11]

5) A national seed is important this year....more important than it’s ever been. Without one, we won’t play a super regional at home no matter what happens in the regionals.
.

That’s not correct from my understanding. We would still host the Super as a 9-16 seed if the Top 8 we are paired with doesn’t advance out of a Regional.

The rule you’re referring to only applies if both host schools in a pairing are eliminated, similar to how it played out for us in 2007 and 2018.

 

[8dog]

I dont think thats correct. If we host a regional at 9-16 we can host a super if host opposite us doesnt win. Alls eligible host sites are eligible super host sites

 

[ronpolk]

Correct. If we don’t get a natty seed, and the natty seed opposite us gets knocked off, we still play a true neutral site super regional at their place.

I don’t guess I’ve seen that before. Why could a place host a regional but not a super?

 

[PreacherDog]

1) As fans, the past two days (and most of the past 2 weeks) have sucked. No question.

2) Margin of victory means jack **** in baseball, in terms of postseason selection. Less than nothing....is literally never mentioned when comparing teams. Run-ruling is embarrassing, but it will not be looked at any differently by the committee than a 4-3 or 2-1 loss in either case.

3) Conference tournament games mean substantially less in the eyes of the committee than regular season games. This has been proven countless times throughout the years, with many examples noted already just today.

4) Our resume is still that of a Top 8 seed. The committee would have to buck a huge number of criteria trends over several seasons to deny us a spot. Conference strength and finish, RPI, quality wins, overall record....you can’t find 8 teams better for any of those criteria (let alone the composite of all of them, which is what it would take).

5) A national seed is important this year....more important than it’s ever been. Without one, we won’t play a super regional at home no matter what happens in the regionals.

We need to turn over a new leaf pretty damn soon. That’s all.

I just dont see how we remain a national seed. All this assumes no one else wins anymore. There will be 1 Pac 12 Arizona (at least 1 but possibly 2), probably 3 Big 12, and Notre Dame from ACC will likely be a national seed. If someone else falters like us, we may have a chance. Our resume is good. But there are plenty of other good teams that have good resumes. I think Tennessee is a lock now along with Ark and Vandy. I think Texas will probably get a seed over us even though we beat them. That will suck but if we don't lose to Missouri or win one of these 2 we would have been fine.

 

[Go Budaw]

That’s not correct from my understanding. We would still host the Super as a 9-16 seed if the Top 8 we are paired with doesn’t advance out of a Regional.

The rule you’re referring to only applies if both host schools in a pairing are eliminated, similar to how it played out for us in 2007 and 2018.

That’s not what was announced by the NCAA initially, but they’ve not made up their minds a bit on the hosting criteria with COVID, so I’m not going to call you a liar.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Maybe I was thinking of dropping all the way down to be in someone else's regional. You're right it wouldn't make sense to be "safe enough" for a regional but not a super.

 

[Drebin]

I dont think thats correct. If we host a regional at 9-16 we can host a super if host opposite us doesnt win. Alls eligible host sites are eligible super host sites

This is how it's supposed to work.

 

[Go Budaw]

I don’t guess I’ve seen that before. Why could a place host a regional but not a super?

Great question, but that seemed to be the consensus for COVID protocols when their whole plan was rolled out initially. Think they wanted staffing and resources pre-allocated for 2 weekends at the super sites for sanitation, testing, and whatever else. It may have all been thrown out the window by now based on virus trends from the past 4-6 weeks, but I haven’t seen anything official that it had.

 

[8dog]

Right if 2 non hosts win a paired regional they would play the super at one of those two host sites even though its not home to either school

 

[ronpolk]

That’s not what was announced by the NCAA initially, but they’ve not made up their minds a bit on the hosting criteria with COVID, so I’m not going to call you a liar.

I’m not sure when I read it, so it could have been once the sites were announced. But my understanding is only host sites of regionals can host a super. So, if 2 non- hosts win their regionals that super will be at one of the host sites that got beat.

 

[johnson86-1]

That’s not what was announced by the NCAA initially, but they’ve not made up their minds a bit on the hosting criteria with COVID, so I’m not going to call you a liar.

What the NCAA announced initially was vague and unclear. They referenced having to honor the bid even if the team didn't advance, but they never specified that a national seed that didn't advance would have to host a one seed that had already had their covid protocols approved. THe only reason people thought that might be the case is just consistent training by the NCAA to assume they would do the dumbest thing possible as long as it's worse for the athletes and/or fans.

 

[Go Budaw]

I’m not sure when I read it, so it could have been once the sites were announced. But my understanding is only host sites of regionals can host a super. So, if 2 non- hosts win their regionals that super will be at one of the host sites that got beat.

That’s definitely the case. Lower seed host advancing and natty seed host getting eliminated seems to be the gray area.

 

[wsjmsu75]

Correct. If we don’t get a natty seed, and the natty seed opposite us gets knocked off, we still play a true neutral site super regional at their place.

I'm trying to make sense out of that and I just can't. How would it be any safer covid wise (if that is the reason for this), for us to play a neutral site super regional than at home, where we were previously approved as a "covid safe" site. What genius came up with that?

Eta- unless the thinking is that it would assure almost no fans in the stands at the neutral site, thus making it more "covid safe". Still stupid though, imo. It is like they are looking for ways to make the supers less exciting with way less fans, and therefore less money in their own pockets.

 

[Go Budaw]

Right if 2 non hosts win a paired regional they would play the super at one of those two host sites even though its not home to either school

I hope ya’ll are right. If so, scratch point 5.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

That’s not correct from my understanding. We would still host the Super as a 9-16 seed if the Top 8 we are paired with doesn’t advance out of a Regional.

The rule you’re referring to only applies if both host schools in a pairing are eliminated, similar to how it played out for us in 2007 and 2018.

This is correct. If we are #9 and win our regional and #8 loses their regional, super in Starkville.

 

[Cooterpoot]

This team doesn't have the talent we hoped for. Some is young and inexperienced and it's just missing in some spots. Compare it to the '19 team and it's worse in hitting, fielding, and pitching numbers for the most part. I won't be surprised if they go out in the regional, but I won't be surprised if they get to the CWS.
The concern for me is their inability to handle adversity and punch back. We seem to just roll over at times.

 

[Go Budaw]

I just dont see how we remain a national seed. All this assumes no one else wins anymore. There will be 1 Pac 12 Arizona (at least 1 but possibly 2), probably 3 Big 12, and Notre Dame from ACC will likely be a national seed. If someone else falters like us, we may have a chance. Our resume is good. But there are plenty of other good teams that have good resumes. I think Tennessee is a lock now along with Ark and Vandy. I think Texas will probably get a seed over us even though we beat them. That will suck but if we don't lose to Missouri or win one of these 2 we would have been fine.

There will be 4 SEC, 2 Big 12, 1 Pac-12, and 1 from either ACC or CUSA (probably ND).

Three from the Big 12 ain’t happening. TCU would be the 3rd team, they lost 3 series in a row to end the year and are 14th in ELO.

Two from the Pac 12 also ain’t happening. They are the #4 RPI conference….no way they get 2 national seeds.

As for Notre Dame, they really don’t deserve one, but the NCAA always throws at least one bone to that midwest / northern footprint whenever they get a chance.

Overall, there are 5 stone cold locks in Ark, Vandy, Tenn, Texas, and Arizona. Stack our measurables against Texas Tech, TCU, and Notre Dame and you’ll find that we are no worse than the 2nd best in that grouping.

 

[Dawgg]

Few things I'm going to say here. It's not just about us. Look at what has happened to the teams around us in the D1 poll and RPI ranking:

1. Texas lost yesterday. We'll see how they shake out against OU today, but they were only up 2-1 when I checked earlier.
2. There is NO Pac-12 tournament. Arizona already has their AQ bid as regular season champ. They play Dixie State (235 RPI) this weekend. That can't help their RPI.
3. Stanford sweeping Oregon State is not a foregone conclusion. I feel like they would have to before they jump us.
4. Oregon sweeping California is not a foregone conclusion. I feel like they would have to before they jump us.
5. East Carolina got run ruled by Memphis, the last place team in the American, Tuesday. They beat Cincinnati, but Cincy is like 80 in RPI.
6. TCU and Texas Tech have to play each other today. One of them has to lose. Same thing that happened to us with Tennessee today.
7. Ole Miss lost several series in a row and we beat them head to head. Maybe if they win the SEC Tournament.
8. Has anybody ever compared D1Baseball's 'projected' field in past years vs who actually was chosen and who actually hosted? I'm asking that in earnest.

Some of you guys need to step away from the ledge.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

1) As fans, the past two days (and most of the past 2 weeks) have sucked. No question.

2) Margin of victory means jack **** in baseball, in terms of postseason selection. Less than nothing....is literally never mentioned when comparing teams. Run-ruling is embarrassing, but it will not be looked at any differently by the committee than a 4-3 or 2-1 loss in either case.

3) Conference tournament games mean substantially less in the eyes of the committee than regular season games. This has been proven countless times throughout the years, with many examples noted already just today.

4) Our resume is still that of a Top 8 seed. The committee would have to buck a huge number of criteria trends over several seasons to deny us a spot. Conference strength and finish, RPI, quality wins, overall record....you can’t find 8 teams better for any of those criteria (let alone the composite of all of them, which is what it would take).

5) A national seed is important this year....more important than it’s ever been. Without one, we won’t play a super regional at home no matter what happens in the regionals.

We need to turn over a new leaf pretty damn soon. That’s all.

Actually I think the selection committee came out last year and said they counted these games like conference games bc they were. So MSU is currently 20-12 in the SEC.

Also I totally agree, definitely a top 8 resume. However the SEC has never gotten more than 4 national seeds, and can't see SEC getting more than 4 this year. Very clear there are 3 locked up. If FLA gets to the championship game, even if they lose, would be an interesting call because us and them. Ole Miss even if they win it would be interesting.

Florida and Ole Miss are both currently 19-13 overall, again MSU finished 20-12 in ALL conference games.

Florida or Ole Miss runs table they would finish 22-13, if they lose in championship would be 21-14. Think it would take ole miss winning to make a case, but FLA is someone that could jump MSU, especially with a strong finish as opposed to how we finished

 

[hdogg]

I mean, regardless of not using our bullpen to it's full potential, we still were outscored 25 to 3 in 2 games...
That's embarrassing.

 

[MSUDC11]

Actually I think the selection committee came out last year and said they counted these games like conference games bc they were. So MSU is currently 20-12 in the SEC.

Also I totally agree, definitely a top 8 resume. However the SEC has never gotten more than 4 national seeds, and can't see SEC getting more than 4 this year. Very clear there are 3 locked up. If FLA gets to the championship game, even if they lose, would be an interesting call because us and them. Ole Miss even if they win it would be interesting.

Florida and Ole Miss are both currently 19-13 overall, again MSU finished 20-12 in ALL conference games.

Florida or Ole Miss runs table they would finish 22-13, if they lose in championship would be 21-14. Think it would take ole miss winning to make a case, but FLA is someone that could jump MSU, especially with a strong finish as opposed to how we finished

I just wonder with Florida if they have too big of an RPI hill to climb. They weren’t even a slam dunk to host before this week. RPI is only at 18 and they don’t have great metrics otherwise. Beating Bama today wouldn’t do much to move the needle.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

I just wonder with Florida if they have too big of an RPI hill to climb. They weren’t even a slam dunk to host before this week. RPI is only at 18 and they don’t have great metrics otherwise. Beating Bama today wouldn’t do much to move the needle.

Agree. But they run the table. Either win it or get there. They will have to have beaten Vandy or Arkansas. If they win it all, likley both or throw Tenn in there.

I do agree, I think MSU gets the 4th. But Florida winning it or even playing for it, would be a interesting case. Especially with our finish compared to theirs if they win it

 

[Go Budaw]

Actually I think the selection committee came out last year and said they counted these games like conference games bc they were. So MSU is currently 20-12 in the SEC.

Also I totally agree, definitely a top 8 resume. However the SEC has never gotten more than 4 national seeds, and can't see SEC getting more than 4 this year. Very clear there are 3 locked up. If FLA gets to the championship game, even if they lose, would be an interesting call because us and them. Ole Miss even if they win it would be interesting.

Florida and Ole Miss are both currently 19-13 overall, again MSU finished 20-12 in ALL conference games.

Florida or Ole Miss runs table they would finish 22-13, if they lose in championship would be 21-14. Think it would take ole miss winning to make a case, but FLA is someone that could jump MSU, especially with a strong finish as opposed to how we finished

Didn’t see where the committee ever said that, but if they did, it’s complete ********. Actions speak louder than words, and their actions don’t match those words. Again, 2012, we won 21 SEC games. Twenty-17ing-one. And not only were we not a national seed, we didn’t even host.

You win the SEC Tournament, which is best case scenario for any team, the committee views it as like 1-2 additional regular season conference wins....at best. They absolutely do not weigh them the same as regular season games.

 

[8dog]

Yes. They treat them all the same which is just absurd.

 

[Go Budaw]

Few things I'm going to say here. It's not just about us. Look at what has happened to the teams around us in the D1 poll and RPI ranking:

1. Texas lost yesterday. We'll see how they shake out against OU today, but they were only up 2-1 when I checked earlier.
2. There is NO Pac-12 tournament. Arizona already has their AQ bid as regular season champ. They play Dixie State (235 RPI) this weekend. That can't help their RPI.
3. Stanford sweeping Oregon State is not a foregone conclusion. I feel like they would have to before they jump us.
4. Oregon sweeping California is not a foregone conclusion. I feel like they would have to before they jump us.
5. East Carolina got run ruled by Memphis, the last place team in the American, Tuesday. They beat Cincinnati, but Cincy is like 80 in RPI.
6. TCU and Texas Tech have to play each other today. One of them has to lose. Same thing that happened to us with Tennessee today.
7. Ole Miss lost several series in a row and we beat them head to head. Maybe if they win the SEC Tournament.
8. Has anybody ever compared D1Baseball's 'projected' field in past years vs who actually was chosen and who actually hosted? I'm asking that in earnest.

Some of you guys need to step away from the ledge.

Points 1 and 2 - AZ and Texas are natty seeds....doesn’t matter what happens from here on out.

Point 3 - Stanford is playing OSU at home, and even with a sweep I don’t see them overtaking us. Oregon State is outside the RPI top 20....not some juggernaut. If it was a road series, they would have a bigger opportunity for RPI jump. And again, the PAC 12 is the #4 RPI conference....I see no way they get 2 national seeds.

Point 4 - Oregon has no chance to jump us, for same reasons as mentioned for Stanford above....but they are even further back. Not even worth discussing.

Point 5 - That helps, but really no impact. ECU is on the outside looking in either way. There’s only 1 national seed for the ACC and CUSA put together, at most. Look for ND to get it.

Point 6 - We need to root for Texas Tech, but I still feel good about our chances vs. TCU either way. If TCU wins the Big 12 tourney it wouldn’t be great, though.

Point 7 - OM is a host but not a national seed. End of discussion.

Point 8 - I don’t know. Good question though.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

You can absolutely host a Super if you host a Regional.

Now, if you were matched up against, say, Arizona, and they were the 8 and MSU the 9, and both of you lost your regional, then the Super would be played at Arizona. But if Arizona lost and MSU won, it would be in Starkville.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

Didn’t see where the committee ever said that, but if they did, it’s complete ********. Actions speak louder than words, and their actions don’t match those words. Again, 2012, we won 21 SEC games. Twenty-17ing-one. And not only were we not a national seed, we didn’t even host.

You win the SEC Tournament, which is best case scenario for any team, the committee views it as like 1-2 additional regular season conference wins....at best. They absolutely do not weigh them the same as regular season games.

2012 was 10 years ago.

Ray Tanner I believe was the committee head. Said if they are going to play these games they are going to count them and if they are conference games that’s how they are going to treat them.

Not splitting hairs but to say they absolutely do not... guess you are in the room to know. I know what was said by the selection committee on the last show.