The economy

[Rifler]

and yet we keep spending, spending, spending

It seems as if only people on this board are concerned about the debt, not one in Congress appears at all concerned, and the Trump administration puts drunken sailors to shame...

I think most reasonable citizens have some level of concern about the debt,... Problem is that we all tend to look favorably towards addressing issues that we prioritize, while disagreeing with any money spent on "other people's projects",... Republicans spend on "X", while Democrats spend on "Y" with end result being that, no matter who's in power the act of spending remains constant,.. This is why neither party has proven itself capable of actually reducing the bottom line.

 

[Dadar]

How do you think this deregulation is going to end. Maybe your debt end game is to inflate the debt out. For some strange reason I believe global central banks are not run by naive or stupid people. As I have stated before, GS and the World Gold Council have data that has substantiated a significant flow in gold reserves from east to west. It should not take a lot of thought to understand this.

You are right about the high possibility of the market exploding up. It is the drop when delevaging starts that concerns me.

Does this give you more confidence?

Paul S. Atkins - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Palmerhawk]

.Michigan survey for July:

Est: 55
Actual: 51

Sentiment slid most among GOP voters.
Broad-based weakness.
K-shaped....wealthy are fine, the rest are discouraged.

 

[Dadar]

I think most reasonable citizens have some level of concern about the debt,... Problem is that we all tend to look favorably towards addressing issues that we prioritize, while disagreeing with any money spent on "other people's projects",... Republicans spend on "X", while Democrats spend on "Y" with end result being that, no matter who's in power the act of spending remains constant,.. This is why why neither party has proven itself capable of actually reducing the bottom line.

I completely agree and probably sit more on the conservative side. The choices to me pretty much boils down to NO or HELL NO

Since the Buffet solution seems like Scarlett looking back at Tara from times gone by, I keep hoping a viable 3rd & possibly 4th party will grow grassroots and lead to rank voting. Unless one of the 2 choices we currently have gets their head out of the clouds and honors the oath of office they take, surely this would be any improvement.

 

[Dadar]

Gold is looking good today

 

[Rifler]

I completely agree and probably sit more on the conservative side. The choices to me pretty much boils down to NO or HELL NO

Since the Buffet solution seem like Scarlett looking back at Tara from times gone by, I keep hoping a viable 3rd & possibly 4th party will grow grassroots and lead to rank voting. Unless one of the 2 choices we currently have gets their head out of the clouds and honoring the oath of office they take, surely this would be any improvement.

The solution will ultimately have to be implemented by non-career politicians,.. Because the people who actually fix this will become very unpopular with a large portion of the population.

 

[fatpiggy]

With the inflow of machine driven passive index investing from payroll deduction through intra week and month cycles setting up a bearish oversold market into the mechanical bid strictly buying with no regard other than just buy. Tie this in with end of quarter rebalancing from funds with excess cash that exceeds charter limits, and now we have high leverage ETF's. Throw this in with our leadership outright stealing from a public service viewpoint with a quid pro quo ingrained approach to every thing.

Personal and family immunity from IRS regulations. Man, what the hell are you listening to?

I'm listening to the same thing the market is listenting to. If you haven't noticed it closed at record high's yesterday. While the market is not the economy and vice versa, it is certainy a good indicator and highly correlated to the economy.

Despite all of the feelings being hurt on the left, the economy is doing great. The major concern is the price of oil, which i admit is still too high.

I find it hypocritcal of you to be so opposed to DOGE and then a few months later come screaming about the debt. There was no appetite for Doge. Saying you "don't like the way the did it" is a pathetic excuse and show's a severe lack of understanding the problem in my eyes. NO ONE WANTS THERE CHEESE TAKEN AWAY. When you do the cuts the way you want them done, all the other people are going to pitch a fit and whine.

The overall spending is too high to be supported by the current economy. Elon et al looked at the numbers and they said clear as day we will fail under this path. We either cut spending or we spur growth. There was NO APPETITE to cut spending, so Trump gave way to the Hyperscalers.

The Hyperscalers have invested so much into R&D and taken on so much debt, there is no looking back and we can't afford to fail. So we won't. It's going to be a hell of a ride the next 10 years.

 

[bdgan]

I'm listening to the same thing the market is listenting to. If you haven't noticed it closed at record high's yesterday. While the market is not the economy and vice versa, it is certainy a good indicator and highly correlated to the economy.

Despite all of the feelings being hurt on the left, the economy is doing great. The major concern is the price of oil, which i admit is still too high.

I find it hypocritcal of you to be so opposed to DOGE and then a few months later come screaming about the debt. There was no appetite for Doge. Saying you "don't like the way the did it" is a pathetic excuse and show's a severe lack of understanding the problem in my eyes. NO ONE WANTS THERE CHEESE TAKEN AWAY. When you do the cuts the way you want them done, all the other people are going to pitch a fit and whine.

The overall spending is too high to be supported by the current economy. Elon et al looked at the numbers and they said clear as day we will fail under this path. We either cut spending or we spur growth. There was NO APPETITE to cut spending, so Trump gave way to the Hyperscalers.

The Hyperscalers have invested so much into R&D and taken on so much debt, there is no looking back and we can't afford to fail. So we won't. It's going to be a hell of a ride the next 10 years.

Dems say that they want to eliminate waste and that the problem with DOGE is how they went about it. So how many bills or task forces have they promoted to eliminate waste the right way? Why do blue states deny access to records about social welfare programs?

 

[bdgan]

Neither of you think non citizens pay taxes? You both would be wrong.

+1 In 2023, immigrants overall contributed $651.9 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenues. Out of this total, households led by undocumented immigrants generated nearly $90 billion in tax payments, with $33.9 billion going to state and local governments and $55.8B to the federal government.In Florida specifically, undocumented immigrants contribute approximately $1.8 billion annually in state and local taxes, largely through sales, excise, and property taxes.Because undocumented immigrants generally use Individual Tax Identification Numbers (ITINs) or pay taxes through payroll deductions, they contribute billions to programs they cannot legally access, such as Social Security and Medicare.If you want to understand how these numbers impact your specific community or need details about other specific visa categories, let me know.

Notice the difference between immigrants and undocumented immigrants. $55 billion is probably less than governments spent to house, feed, and care for these people.

 

[fatpiggy]

.Michigan survey for July:

Est: 55
Actual: 51

Sentiment slid most among GOP voters.
Broad-based weakness.
K-shaped....wealthy are fine, the rest are discouraged.

Seems the Treasury Secretary disagrees with you.

"What we’ve seen over the past year is that wages for the bottom 25% of working Americans were up 5.5%."

 

[Thefunksouljon]

Are you kidding? How about you explain it to me.

He already tried. His explination
They tried, you complained online, they were shut down. It wasn't successful because of that, but you can't be pro fiscal responsibility AND prolaw at the same time.

 

[Dadar]

Bessent was a lot smarter when he worked under George Soros? Are you familiar with the treasury BOJ coordinated ntervention with JPY to buffer Japan unloading US treasury holdings. This pretty much woke gold up from a very bullish decending wedge. Also, treasury sold eur holdings without any advance notice to the ECB to finance the attemp to ease the us treasury outflows. His hedge fund experience on his own after Soros did not turn out very well.

He may just be a smart egghead

 

[fatpiggy]

Bessent was a lot smarter when he worked under George Soros? Are you familiar with the treasury BOJ coordinated ntervention with JPY to buffer Japan unloading US treasury holdings. This pretty much woke gold up from a very bullish decending wedge. Also, treasury sold eur holdings without any advance notice to the ECB to finance the attemp to ease the us treasury outflows. His hedge fund experience on his own after Soros did not turn out very well.

He may just be a smart egghead

That's not what Bessent claims.

He claims he took a couple Bill off Soros in 2016.

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

DOGE was the chance to tackle the debt.

We now get the opposite, hyperscalers

DOGE was the right intention ruined by an approach that should have included Congress from the start. Musk thought he could treat the federal budget like Twitter: come in, fire a bunch of people, see what breaks then add back. That does not work in government and he/Trump were naive to think it would. Congress controls the purse so you have to get cults past Congress.

The sad reality is we NEED a massive cost cutting exercise and now it is completely branded as a massive mistake.

And even that won’t be enough…we unfortunately need a massive tax increase as well. Every single one of us has borrowed from our children’s future. The debt obligation is going to come home to roost and it sure would be nice to have the income to pay that debt down. But we are like people who bought a house they cannot afford, who never manage to raise their income to get to affordability hand so they just take out equity lines of credit over and over and over again.

 

[Dadar]

DOGE was the right intention ruined by an approach that should have included Congress from the start. Musk thought he could treat the federal budget like Twitter: come in, fire a bunch of people, see what breaks then add back. That does not work in government and he/Trump were naive to think it would. Congress controls the purse so you have to get cults past Congress.

The sad reality is we NEED a massive cost cutting exercise and now it is completely branded as a massive mistake.

And even that won’t be enough…we unfortunately need a massive tax increase as well. Every single one of us has borrowed from our children’s future. The debt obligation is going to come home to roost and it sure would be nice to have the income to pay that debt down. But we are like people who bought a house they cannot afford, who never manage to raise their income to get to affordability hand so they just take out equity lines of credit over and over and over again.

Unfortunately we are on a track to monetizing the debt unless someone does some MMT magic and finds a golden goose. The golden goose would likely reside in the ballroom vault if things keep moving in the current direction.

 

[Palmerhawk]

Seems the Treasury Secretary disagrees with you.

"What we’ve seen over the past year is that wages for the bottom 25% of working Americans were up 5.5%."

Remember Howard lutnick promised 6+% growth by 2nd qtr of 26?
We.got an anemic 1.2.
So now you're taking bessents word on how the economy is humming?

When you pack an administration with compliant yes men, things will always be portrayed as tremendous....like saddam's spokesman.

 

[Dadar]

This article on the connections to Norman Vincent Peal directly and philosophically checks a lot of boxes.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/donald-trump-2016-norman-vincent-peale-213220/

 

[Dadar]

How Roy Cohn Taught Donald Trump Everything

How Roy Cohn taught Donald Trump to ignore the rules, avoid a paper trail, and make up a good story for the media.

www.newyorker.com

 

[Dadar]

Remember Howard lutnick promised 6+% growth by 2nd qtr of 26?
We.got an anemic 1.2.
So now you're taking bessents word on how the economy is humming?

When you pack an administration with compliant yes men, things will always be portrayed as tremendous....like saddam's spokesman.

Bagdad Bob

 

[dpic73]

 

[dpic73]

Unusual Machines, UMAC up big pre market.

President Donald Trump signed a proclamation titled "Securing American Drone Dominance," imposing 10% to 100% tariffs on imported drones and components to curb foreign reliance. This protectionist policy caused domestic industry stocks, including Unusual Machines (UMAC), to surge significantly following the announcement. [1, 2, 3]

This is gross

 

[Rahskie]

Google $99B of debt counted in July because Aug 1st fell on a saturday....nevermind, I will do it for you.

Yes, the $99 billion increase in the July 2026 budget deficit was caused by a calendar shift because August 1, 2026, fell on a Saturday (a non-business day).

This timing quirk accelerated approximately $99 billion in benefit payments—including military active duty and retirement, veterans benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare—from August into late July. The U.S. Treasury adjusted the unadjusted July deficit of $432 billion down to an adjusted figure of $333 billion to account for this shift.

I am NOT saying this isn't a problem...I am saying it is inflated by an accounting quirk.

 

[dpic73]

Google $99B of debt counted in July because Aug 1st fell on a saturday....nevermind, I will do it for you.

Yes, the $99 billion increase in the July 2026 budget deficit was caused by a calendar shift because August 1, 2026, fell on a Saturday (a non-business day).

This timing quirk accelerated approximately $99 billion in benefit payments—including military active duty and retirement, veterans benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare—from August into late July. The U.S. Treasury adjusted the unadjusted July deficit of $432 billion down to an adjusted figure of $333 billion to account for this shift.

I am NOT saying this isn't a problem...I am saying it is inflated by an accounting quirk.

OK, I'll take your word for it but that would still make it our largest July budget deficit on record.

 

[bdgan]

Great. How much do they cost? I know for a fact California (they reported) spent $10 billion on illegals healthcare alone. So per your own numbers 15% of the tax revenue they create is spent on healthcare in one fvcking state. That doesn’t count food or shelter, fraud (hello NY, MN and CA) etc… just doctors visits. Answer this - what has gotten less expensive since the explosion of illegals in 2020? Name one thing that’s better, just one.

Recent official figures: ~$9.5 billion total funds in the 2024–25 budget period for undocumented individuals in Medi-Cal

What percentage of Somali population is receiving gove...

 

[bdgan]

They’re here to work. Not to get paid by the government. If they need government assistance, they aren’t good enough at working to be here.

And I specifically said “not legally permitted to work in the US.” I supposed you could make an argument that green card holders or H-1Bs may qualify for some VERY temporary assistance between jobs or something. But I see absolutely no argument that truly undocumented workers should receive a single penny from the government.

And think about the incentive free food/shelter/etc adds to illegal immigration. Of course we shouldn’t provide any of that. It’s insane to think otherwise.

Illegals claim asylum which is a problem from the start. If you're a political refugee you should make your claim at a legal port of entry. In fact you should claim asylum in the first country you enter. Immigrants continue to the USA because we offer the best benefits and job opportunities but that doesn't qualify someone for asylum.

We provided even more incentive by giving them temporary protected status with a court date 2-3 years in the future. At that point they're not considered illegal and they're given SS numbers. This is how the game is played.

 

[baltimorened]

Surprised, but proud of you Ned, unless we are on the opposite sides of comprehension.

surprised, I've been saying this since debt was about $5 trillion...but nobody listens to me...according to Tom Paris I don't even believe what I post

 

[baltimorened]

DOGE was the right intention ruined by an approach that should have included Congress from the start. Musk thought he could treat the federal budget like Twitter: come in, fire a bunch of people, see what breaks then add back. That does not work in government and he/Trump were naive to think it would. Congress controls the purse so you have to get cults past Congress.

The sad reality is we NEED a massive cost cutting exercise and now it is completely branded as a massive mistake.

And even that won’t be enough…we unfortunately need a massive tax increase as well. Every single one of us has borrowed from our children’s future. The debt obligation is going to come home to roost and it sure would be nice to have the income to pay that debt down. But we are like people who bought a house they cannot afford, who never manage to raise their income to get to affordability hand so they just take out equity lines of credit over and over and over again.

I agree with whomever though DOGE was a good idea but executed incorrectly...

Now having said that, the fraud committee headed by Vance is an very distant offshoot - more a tribute to Nick Shirley - but even if they stop what is estimated at $500billion in fraud, that still leaves us with a $1.5 trillion annual deficit.

Not good