The economy

[Dadar]

The harmony between fibonacci numbers is fun to play with.
For example, the square root of 0.618 is 0.786. The square root of 0.382 is 0.618. The harmonic relationships seem limitless in nature, the environment in which we live and in space that shows in galaxy spirals etc

Ed Dobson in Greenville, in a non discript cement block building housing Traders Press i believe - published a really concise small booklet publication with tables that show the levels. Traders Press was the best source for written trading education material worldwide with many published by Traders Press before everything went digital

TRADER PRESS - Updated March 2026 - 703 Laurens Rd, Greenville, South Carolina

More info about Trader Press. Map. 703 Laurens Rd. Greenville, SC 29607. Directions. (864) 298-0222. Call Now. Hours. What time does Trader Press open

 

[bdgan]

Is there a middle ground?

Yes. Everything isn't about politics and personalities.

 

[bdgan]

Who has lost their rights?

I'm still trying to figure that out but it seems to be the liberal point of view.

 

[Dadar]

I'm still trying to figure that out but it seems to be the liberal point of view.

So the 1st constitutional amendment only applies to the maga zealots? You may want to consider moving to Russia.

 

[bdgan]

So the 1st constitutional amendment only applies to the maga zealots? You may want to consider moving to Russia.

You lost your freedom of speech, religion, press, etc and those things now only apply to Trump voters? Who knew?

 

[Dadar]

VIX above 26

 

[dpic73]

This was Pence's COS

 

[baltimorened]

This was Pence's COS

the problem with all these blanket statements is that folks have a tendency to speak in averages and then are a little loose in how they determine the "actual" numbers. Manufacturing jobs and wages might be up but to the "average worker" they just don't see it or don't see it at the levels government officials say it is.

I tend to believe that the numbers are not as good as republicans might have you believe an not as bad as a democrat tells us. Similarly normally MS NOW looks at a number and calls doom whereas Fox looks at same number and sees utopia.

 

[dpic73]

the problem with all these blanket statements is that folks have a tendency to speak in averages and then are a little loose in how they determine the "actual" numbers. Manufacturing jobs and wages might be up but to the "average worker" they just don't see it or don't see it at the levels government officials say it is.

I tend to believe that the numbers are not as good as republicans might have you believe an not as bad as a democrat tells us. Similarly normally MS NOW looks at a number and calls doom whereas Fox looks at same number and sees utopia.

This was a Republican from Trump's first administration so he's not looking through an MSNow lens

 

[LafayetteBear]

That’s it I would say, unless we can increase Venezuela’s crude output. Maybe we have some LNG excess

Venezuela does not even produce "light, sweet crude," do they? I believe that Venezuelan petroleum requires considerably more refining, and am wondering if it is even viable (particularly from a cost perspective) to use it to make jet fuel or gasoline.

 

[kidmike41]

Venezuela does not even produce "light, sweet crude," do they? I believe that Venezuelan petroleum requires considerably more refining, and am wondering if it is even viable (particularly from a cost perspective) to use it to make jet fuel or gasoline.

No it is heavy crude

 

[LafayetteBear]

Chump change. Are you concerned with the $9.5 billion spent daily on entitlements? For those keeping score it was about $2.3 billion per day in 2000, we’ve managed to 4x that. But Epstein and Iran right?

“Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye? How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ when all the time there is a plank in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye.”

$9.5 billion per day, you say. Where are you getting your information? Your post prompted me to consult my friend Google, and here is what Google came up with:

The U.S. federal government spends billions of dollars daily on entitlements, which constitute the majority of mandatory spending. Major programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, along with other mandatory assistance, account for roughly 66% of the total budget, translating to over $4 billion per day on these programs collectively.

• Daily Spending Magnitude: Federal spending is roughly $6 million per minute, which equals approximately $8.6 billion per day total, with entitlements/mandatory spending making up the largest share.
• Key Programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the largest, accounting for nearly 75% of mandatory spending. In 2024, health programs (Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, ACA) accounted for about $1.7 trillion.
• Total Scope: Mandatory spending has grown from 26% of the budget in 1962 to 66% in 2022, representing over 80 different welfare programs that cost roughly $1.19 trillion in FY2022.

I then asked my friend Google how much the federal government spends per day on the national defense, not just on the Iranian invasion. Here is what Google came up with:

The U.S. government spends approximately $2.4 to $2.5 billion per day on national defense, based on a total annual defense budget that has reached roughly $870–$900 billion in FY 2024–2025. This figure represents over 13% of total federal spending, covering operations, personnel, and equipment.

• Daily Cost: With a 2024 national defense budget of roughly $874 billion, the daily expenditure is roughly
• Total Context: Total defense-related spending, including veteran support, can exceed $1 trillion annually.
• Breakdown: Key areas include operation and maintenance (38%), military personnel (22%), procurement (17%), and research/development (16%).
• Comparison: The U.S. spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined.

Without a doubt, we spend a lot more on entitlements than we do on our military. But the figure for our military spending is gonna go up quite a bit with this Iranian fiasco. If it adds even a "measly" $1.5 billion per day to defense spending (and I use the term "defense" spending with considerable literary license given that Trump chose to attack Iran), that will be roughly $4 billion per day. That is still a bit less than half of total entitlements spending, but I would rather spend money improving the lives of Americans than bombing Iranians. Moreover, as noted above, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid account for nearly 75% of entitlements spending. Do you want to jettison any of those three programs? (I'm confident you would be in a distinct minority if you said yes.) The costs for the Iranian adventure are the very definition of discretionary spending. We could have done without this Iranian adventure, just as we could have done without Bush 43's Iraq war and nation building fiasco. It's no surprise that Trump is steering clear of the term "nation building" even though everything he is doing suggests that is precisely his goal. ("I want a say in who Iran selects as its new leader!")

 

[Dadar]

U.S. Gulf Coast refineries have substantial, high-complexity capacity—estimated at nearly 8 million barrels per day (BPD) across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi—primed for heavy Venezuelan crude. Key facilities, including Marathon’s Garyville (606,000 BPD), Exxon’s Baton Rouge (522,500 BPD), and Citgo’s Lake Charles (459,800 BPD), are equipped to process these barrels

 

[Dadar]

Does Israel ever run low on bombs?

Israel is significantly expanding its military operations in Lebanon as of early March 2026, following the collapse of a 2024 ceasefire. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are engaged in heavy airstrikes, including in Beirut's suburbs, and have initiated a ground invasion in southern Lebanon with over 100,000 reservists called up.

 

[MTTiger19]

$9.5 billion per day, you say. Where are you getting your information? Your post prompted me to consult my friend Google, and here is what Google came up with:

The U.S. federal government spends billions of dollars daily on entitlements, which constitute the majority of mandatory spending. Major programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, along with other mandatory assistance, account for roughly 66% of the total budget, translating to over $4 billion per day on these programs collectively.

• Daily Spending Magnitude: Federal spending is roughly $6 million per minute, which equals approximately $8.6 billion per day total, with entitlements/mandatory spending making up the largest share.
• Key Programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the largest, accounting for nearly 75% of mandatory spending. In 2024, health programs (Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, ACA) accounted for about $1.7 trillion.
• Total Scope: Mandatory spending has grown from 26% of the budget in 1962 to 66% in 2022, representing over 80 different welfare programs that cost roughly $1.19 trillion in FY2022.

I then asked my friend Google how much the federal government spends per day on the national defense, not just on the Iranian invasion. Here is what Google came up with:

The U.S. government spends approximately $2.4 to $2.5 billion per day on national defense, based on a total annual defense budget that has reached roughly $870–$900 billion in FY 2024–2025. This figure represents over 13% of total federal spending, covering operations, personnel, and equipment.

• Daily Cost: With a 2024 national defense budget of roughly $874 billion, the daily expenditure is roughly
• Total Context: Total defense-related spending, including veteran support, can exceed $1 trillion annually.
• Breakdown: Key areas include operation and maintenance (38%), military personnel (22%), procurement (17%), and research/development (16%).
• Comparison: The U.S. spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined.

Without a doubt, we spend a lot more on entitlements than we do on our military. But the figure for our military spending is gonna go up quite a bit with this Iranian fiasco. If it adds even a "measly" $1.5 billion per day to defense spending (and I use the term "defense" spending with considerable literary license given that Trump chose to attack Iran), that will be roughly $4 billion per day. That is still a bit less than half of total entitlements spending, but I would rather spend money improving the lives of Americans than bombing Iranians. Moreover, as noted above, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid account for nearly 75% of entitlements spending. Do you want to jettison any of those three programs? (I'm confident you would be in a distinct minority if you said yes.) The costs for the Iranian adventure are the very definition of discretionary spending. We could have done without this Iranian adventure, just as we could have done without Bush 43's Iraq war and nation building fiasco. It's no surprise that Trump is steering clear of the term "nation building" even though everything he is doing suggests that is precisely his goal. ("I want a say in who Iran selects as its new leader!")

Legal residents (U.S. citizens): Approximately $3.4 trillion annually, or $9.3 billion per day. This group consumes about 89% of total benefits, reflecting their majority population share and full eligibility for all programs.


• Non-legal residents (legal non-citizens/immigrants): Approximately $90 billion annually, or $247 million per day. Legal non-citizens (e.g., permanent residents) have varying access after a typical 5-year waiting period, with higher use in programs like Medicaid and food assistance due to demographics.


• Illegal residents (undocumented immigrants): Approximately $35 billion annually (primarily medical and welfare-related entitlements), or $96 million per day. This includes emergency Medicaid (~$23 billion/year), food programs like SNAP for U.S.-born children (~$6 billion), child nutrition/SSI/TANF (~$5.6 billion), and other indirect benefits. Direct access is limited, and estimates exclude non-entitlement costs like education or law enforcement.

 

[Watson to Renfrow]

Yes. The opportunity for AI in labor replacement is over $7T. McKinsey thinks 30% of labor could be replaced by 2030. I suspect their business will see more than 30% replaced by AI.

McKinsey also advised AT&T that there would be 900k mobile phone users by 2000, missing the mark by a smooth 100 million

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[bdgan]

$9.5 billion per day, you say. Where are you getting your information? Your post prompted me to consult my friend Google, and here is what Google came up with:

The U.S. federal government spends billions of dollars daily on entitlements, which constitute the majority of mandatory spending. Major programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, along with other mandatory assistance, account for roughly 66% of the total budget, translating to over $4 billion per day on these programs collectively.

• Daily Spending Magnitude: Federal spending is roughly $6 million per minute, which equals approximately $8.6 billion per day total, with entitlements/mandatory spending making up the largest share.
• Key Programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the largest, accounting for nearly 75% of mandatory spending. In 2024, health programs (Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, ACA) accounted for about $1.7 trillion.
• Total Scope: Mandatory spending has grown from 26% of the budget in 1962 to 66% in 2022, representing over 80 different welfare programs that cost roughly $1.19 trillion in FY2022.

I then asked my friend Google how much the federal government spends per day on the national defense, not just on the Iranian invasion. Here is what Google came up with:

The U.S. government spends approximately $2.4 to $2.5 billion per day on national defense, based on a total annual defense budget that has reached roughly $870–$900 billion in FY 2024–2025. This figure represents over 13% of total federal spending, covering operations, personnel, and equipment.

• Daily Cost: With a 2024 national defense budget of roughly $874 billion, the daily expenditure is roughly
• Total Context: Total defense-related spending, including veteran support, can exceed $1 trillion annually.
• Breakdown: Key areas include operation and maintenance (38%), military personnel (22%), procurement (17%), and research/development (16%).
• Comparison: The U.S. spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined.

Without a doubt, we spend a lot more on entitlements than we do on our military. But the figure for our military spending is gonna go up quite a bit with this Iranian fiasco. If it adds even a "measly" $1.5 billion per day to defense spending (and I use the term "defense" spending with considerable literary license given that Trump chose to attack Iran), that will be roughly $4 billion per day. That is still a bit less than half of total entitlements spending, but I would rather spend money improving the lives of Americans than bombing Iranians. Moreover, as noted above, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid account for nearly 75% of entitlements spending. Do you want to jettison any of those three programs? (I'm confident you would be in a distinct minority if you said yes.) The costs for the Iranian adventure are the very definition of discretionary spending. We could have done without this Iranian adventure, just as we could have done without Bush 43's Iraq war and nation building fiasco. It's no surprise that Trump is steering clear of the term "nation building" even though everything he is doing suggests that is precisely his goal. ("I want a say in who Iran selects as its new leader!")

Assume the USA spends $20 billion on Iran. Why is that a big problem when the nearly $200 billion spent on Ukraine isn't a big problem?

I have mixed feelings about both wars, mostly because I don't understand the end game. But as far as I'm concerned the people who complain about one but not the other are just playing politics.

 

[Dadar]

Oracle is reportedly planning significant layoffs of thousands of employees, potentially 20,000 to 30,000, across various divisions to manage cash flow for massive AI data center expansions, driven partly by its large OpenAI partnership. These cuts aim to free up $8 to $10 billion in cash, with reductions possibly affecting roles the company needs less due to AI.

 

[kidmike41]

That was the Putin price hike remember?

 

[dpic73]

 

[dpic73]

The jokes write themselves

 

[dpic73]

 

[baltimorened]

I feel for anybody losing their jobs, but subsidies for electric cars was not a great long term plan. Heck, seems like electric car sales doesn't seem like a great long term plan either ...without subsidies.

 

[LafayetteBear]

Assume the USA spends $20 billion on Iran. Why is that a big problem when the nearly $200 billion spent on Ukraine isn't a big problem?

I have mixed feelings about both wars, mostly because I don't understand the end game. But as far as I'm concerned the people who complain about one but not the other are just playing politics.

I would be OVERJOYED if we end up spending only $20 billion on Iran. But we have likely already exceeded that amount, or at least come close to it. And we are nowhere close to getting out of Iran at this point.

As for comparing the wars in Iran and Ukraine, Russia invaded Ukraine, and we are merely helping Ukraine defend itself and taking down Russia's military capabilities at the same time. This will help prevent additional Russian adventurism. Putin now fully understands that there is a cost attending such adventurism. We also have our European allies (if I can still call them that) assisting in this effort.

By contrast, Trump invaded Iran, and without making any effort to build support for it in Congress, with the American people, or with our Allies. This fiasco in Iran is, at its very essence, a war of choice. Trump clearly wants regime change, and it is a war despite what Trump's toadies in the GOP House and Senate caucuses say. Trump has publicly demanded an "unconditional surrender" from Iran, and a role in choosing Iran's new leader. We've already killed the first four layers of Iranian leadership. WHO is gonna do the surrendering? And why would the Iranians surrender? Why should they believe anything Trump has to say at this point? Trump bombed them while negotiations were going on and, as noted by the Omani government official who was mediating those negotiations, when it appeared that some kind of settlement was within reach.

Some years ago, Iraq invaded Iran, and had significant early military success against Iran with its relatively advanced weaponry. Iraq demanded that Iran surrender. Iran said no, and the two countries fought on for another eight (8) years, with over 1 million deaths. Iran has a history of not surrendering. And how do you administer a full surrender and the selection of a new government without boots on the ground? Putting boots on the ground in Iran will without doubt lead to a bunch of American soldiers getting killed. This war is already unpopular. According to polls, 69% of Americans oppose it. Imagine how that figure will grow as the war becomes more expensive, both in terms of treasure and blood.

 

[TigerGrowls]

That was the Putin price hike remember?

That was the dems cya story for sure.

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[kidmike41]

That was the dems cya story for sure.

I just like saying Putin Price Hike

 

[dpic73]

I just like saying Putin Price Hike

Putin picked a peck of pickled price hikes.

 

[dpic73]

 

[fatpiggy]

I feel for anybody losing their jobs, but subsidies for electric cars was not a great long term plan. Heck, seems like electric car sales doesn't seem like a great long term plan either ...without subsidies.

We will see about that. I think electric cars will ultimately win out because they are a better product. It will be a gradual transition over a decade or two, but ultimately 90% or more of cars will be electric. You will have your special use cases for gasoline, like towing and long hauls etc. But the majority of driving will be electric in the not too distant future.

 

[baltimorened]

We will see about that. I think electric cars will ultimately win out because they are a better product. It will be a gradual transition over a decade or two, but ultimately 90% or more of cars will be electric. You will have your special use cases for gasoline, like towing and long hauls etc. But the majority of driving will be electric in the not too distant future.

I'm old school, in a lot of ways. You may be 10% right, but subsidies are not the way to go. If electric cars are going to dominate they should do it on the basis of the car and not the subsidy. IMO

 

[fatpiggy]

I'm old school, in a lot of ways. You may be 10% right, but subsidies are not the way to go. If electric cars are going to dominate they should do it on the basis of the car and not the subsidy. IMO

Sure. But Oil and Gas must be held to the same standard. End all subsidies and may the best product win.

 

[Dadar]

I just like saying Putin Price Hike

This will put pressure on Ukraine to quit blowing up Russia oil structure. Putin got a big help on crude at prime prices

Being named Putin, no wonder he has no value for others lives.

 

[kidmike41]

This will put pressure on Ukraine to quit blowing up Russia oil structure. Putin got a big help on crude at prime prices

They have been pretty active lately doing that. You are correct.

 

[Dadar]

This oil mess hits about everything other than defense stocks outside of thr US oil producers and oil service like slb and bkr. Hitting in convergence with credit defaults and high overall debt, etc etc etc

 

[Dungeon09]

Oil markets are global and so is demand. We may not import much of our oil from the gulf but countries who do will be turning to the same supplies we rely on.

 

[Dadar]

The 200 ema on NQ continuous contract is in the dust, 23,019 to 23,533 looks like the next support area with the 23,019 retracting 38.2 % back at the low preceeding the TACO liberation crack bounce

 

[Dadar]

Petrodollars are doing well, gold is taking a hit off of the USD rise

 

[Dadar]

This is when trading futures and having globex hours to trade through foreign markets is especially helpful.