The economy

baltimorened

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May 29, 2001
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Yeah, not sure what he wants, magic?

All the data says what he wants is happening. Housing costs coming down, inflation under the intended target, growth good.

I understand his point that your everyday consumer may take a while to feel it, but prices aren’t going back to pre COVID levels, not without crashing the economy. That is just an unrealistic delusion.

I give Trump high marks on the economy, even for the lower class.
I have posted many times, that based on historic norms, prices after periods of high inflation, don't go back to pre high inflation days.

Your last sentence..."you" give the economy high marks...so do I, how many other voters do? We'll find out in November, trump has 6 months to convince them to vote Republican. Who knows, maybe the projected high tax returns may be the catalyst to have the lower earners yelling "four more years"!
 
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fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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I have posted many times, that based on historic norms, prices after periods of high inflation, don't go back to pre high inflation days.

Your last sentence..."you" give the economy high marks...so do I, how many other voters do? We'll find out in November, trump has 6 months to convince them to vote Republican. Who knows, maybe the projected high tax returns may be the catalyst to have the lower earners yelling "four more years"!

The voters consider many issues other than the economy. They may put more weight on other issues and elect someone else. However, if there was a way for people to only vote on the economy, I would mortgage my house to say that Trump or Republicans will win.
 

Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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I have posted many times, that based on historic norms, prices after periods of high inflation, don't go back to pre high inflation days.

Your last sentence..."you" give the economy high marks...so do I, how many other voters do? We'll find out in November, trump has 6 months to convince them to vote Republican. Who knows, maybe the projected high tax returns may be the catalyst to have the lower earners yelling "four more years"!
10 yr yields are going up, not good for mortgage rates and the debt interest
 
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Dadar

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10 year yields going up and dollar index going the other way is not a good combination for debt. The decreasing USD does reduce the payout with cross fx currencies. Japan is the largest holder of US debt.

Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to usd/jpy with an election coming on August 8 and inflation problems. Increasing rates decreases usd/jpy which is a potential flash point for hedge funds.

So far, usd/jpy is holding up today, but not so well against other currencies. The commodity rich AUD has been especially strong.
 
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bdgan

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Oct 12, 2021
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So we need to buy their votes with a stimulus check?
That's what politicians from both sides do all the time.

Look at covid checks. 90% of people were still employed and a lot of them saved money by working from home. They didn't need stimulus checks but they got them anyway. Politicians were buying votes.

During the campaign Trump tried to buy votes by promising no tax on tips. Harris didn't want to be outdone so she also promised no tax on tips then upped the ante by promising a $25k down payment to buy a house.

The votes are more important to politicians than fiscal responsibility.

"Democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over lousy fiscal policy"​

 
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fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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I have posted many times, that based on historic norms, prices after periods of high inflation, don't go back to pre high inflation days.

Your last sentence..."you" give the economy high marks...so do I, how many other voters do? We'll find out in November, trump has 6 months to convince them to vote Republican. Who knows, maybe the projected high tax returns may be the catalyst to have the lower earners yelling "four more years"!
Hopefully this is what happens. Hopefully there is just a lag between the numbers and people feeling the results in their wallet. The numbers are where the "experts" want them or better for most categories.

 
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bdgan

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People have memories longer than a gnat. The inflation under the democrat admin was unbearable. While not where we want it to be, it is undoubtedly better under Trump. Trump hears the concerns and is working on it. Truflation is showing inflation under 1% recently. Not sure what else you want him to do?
A lot of voters will blame the incumbent for the high cost of living. It doesn't matter who caused the problem.

Democrats are blaming Trump which is amazing considering that inflation topped 9% under Biden. They blame tariffs and I agree that's a factor. Sellers might eat some of the cost but eventually a lot of that will be passed onto consumers. But the biggest things people complain about are food, healthcare, and housing. Imports/tariffs aren't much of a cost driver for most of those things. In fact I read that food inflation was "only" 2.2% last year.

My opinion is that one of the biggest drivers was wages. Port workers, UAW, Teamsters, UPS drivers, Nurses, etc all negotiated rather large pay increases and there's no way anybody on either side is going to claw ay of that back. The best they can do is work on thigs like regulations.

My questions are what should Trump do and what do democrats propose? The only thing I've seen from Democrats is more government subsidies that would only partially be paid for by taxes on the rich. That's not lowering costs, it's redistribution.
 

Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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The dollar index is consolidating under the 21 daily exponential moving average. The 21, 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are layered up with the 21 the bottom

Good day for Metals and miners.
Gold march contract hit the 0.5 back at the January 26 high just above 5000.
 
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bdgan

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Oct 12, 2021
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I have posted many times, that based on historic norms, prices after periods of high inflation, don't go back to pre high inflation days.

Your last sentence..."you" give the economy high marks...so do I, how many other voters do? We'll find out in November, trump has 6 months to convince them to vote Republican. Who knows, maybe the projected high tax returns may be the catalyst to have the lower earners yelling "four more years"!
I don't think higher tax refunds are going to convince many people. They'll get a $3,000 refund instead of a $2,000 refund which will make them temporarily happy but they might not even attribute it to Trump. Even if they do that $1,000 will be long forgotten by November's election. Voters will be preoccupied with things like grocery bills, insurance rates, childcare costs by then.

I remember when Florida received Covid money and Desantis used some of that to give teachers a $1,000 bonus. I told my wife that was a mistake because they'd like the bonus but go back to complaining about their pay in a few months. I told her that Florida should have saved the money and used it to offer higher wages which would have been more permanent. Of course there are union negotiations to deal with.
 

Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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The 30 yr bond and 10 yr treasury are both down along with dollar index.
The long bond is down more more than 2X the 10 yr drop pricing in inflation, also this is relative to the move up in gold.

Tried NQ long after London closed believing the selling would abate, but scratched at slightly +
 
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bdgan

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10 yr yields are going up, not good for mortgage rates and the debt interest
True. Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates but the Fed only impacts the short term discount rate. I think the only thing the government could do is sell off mortgage backed securities it has on it's balance sheet.

Ultimately I think lower rates are needed to lower the rate the country is paying on it's enormous debt. It's a problem when federal receipts are $5 trillion and $1 trillion has to be used to pay interest on the debt.
 

tboonpickens

Heisman
Sep 19, 2001
20,178
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Just pointing out how dumb some of the charts coming out of this administration are, and that charts can both have factual information and be completely misleading with how it's presented.
evergreen





 

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
44,729
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Here's some more stone cold truth about what the Biden admin did to America. Democrats should never have control of the govt again.



Anyone Still Remember Mike?

Let’s pick this up where it actually hurts.

Mike remembers gas lines in the 70s.
He remembers Reagan fixing morale.
He remembers Clinton triangulating.
He remembers Bush wars.
He remembers Obama’s culture shift.
He remembers voting Trump in 2016 and 2020.
He survived Biden.

So Mike shrugs.

“I’ve lived through worse.”

That shrug is how you lose a country without a single shot fired.

Because Biden’s term wasn’t just bad policy.
It was structural damage, and it reached places Mike swore were “safe.”

“That stuff doesn’t reach my town”

That’s what Mike told himself.

Meanwhile, here’s what actually happened:

• Federal migrant relocation programs quietly flew and bused migrants into red states and rural counties, not just NYC or Chicago
• DHS and HHS used NGOs to place migrants directly into mid-sized towns, often without local consent
• School districts in non-border states reported sudden ESL spikes and budget overruns
• Hospitals in rural areas absorbed uncompensated care costs
• Housing shortages worsened as federal placements outbid locals using subsidies

This wasn’t a conspiracy.
It was policy.

The Biden administration expanded parole authority, loosened enforcement, and used air transport and NGO resettlement pipelines to bypass border visibility entirely.

Mike didn’t see tents.
He saw higher rent.
Strained schools.
Overloaded clinics.
Changed neighborhoods.

And he still told himself: “Eh. We’ll be fine.”

Culture didn’t stay in the cities either

Mike thought culture wars were “online nonsense.”

Then:
• DEI mandates hit his workplace via federal compliance rules
• Gender policy showed up in his kid’s school handbook
• Speech policies shifted HR rules
• Law enforcement stopped enforcing certain crimes — selectively

None of this required a vote. None of it required tanks. It only required bureaucratic capture.

That’s the part Mike keeps missing.

“Trump’s back. Damage control.”

Here’s the hard truth Mike hates:

You can win the White House
and still be governed by the Left.

Why?

Because:
• Agencies don’t reset every 4 years
• Judges don’t retire on election night
• Bureaucrats don’t care who you voted for
• Rules outlive presidents

The Left understands this. Mike doesn’t.

They lost elections and still:
• Rewrote enforcement priorities
• Locked in judges
• Expanded administrative power
• Changed election mechanics
• Shifted demographics

That’s not politics. That’s infrastructure.

Where Mike screws up

Mike treats midterms like a nuisance.

The Left treats them like oxygen.

Midterms decide:
• Whether Trump is blocked or backed
• Whether investigations are weaponized or shut down
• Whether agencies get funded or starved
• Whether judges get confirmed or stalled
• Whether border policy is enforced or sabotaged

Mike skipping midterms because “Trump’s got this” is the political version of cutting his nose to feel principled.

Feels good. Looks stupid. Ends badly.

The real wake-up call

It’s not fear. It’s accountability.

Mike isn’t dumb. He’s just complacent.

And complacency is what the Left has been counting on for decades.

If Mike wants:
• His town to stay his town
• His kids to inherit stability, not permission slips
• His vote to actually matter

Then he stops thinking like a spectator.

Presidential years are the headline. Midterms are the machinery.

Countries aren’t lost in landslides. They’re lost when guys like Mike assume someone else is holding the line.

Don’t be Mike.
 
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tboonpickens

Heisman
Sep 19, 2001
20,178
35,820
113
This is anecdotal, but Idk why it's so hard to find a non-immigrant that can pass a piss test. It seems damn near impossible to hire any operators that are first gen americans whose piss test won't come back screaming hot.
my dad used to run a massive operation in SC. he told me that once the migrant population started to infiltrate the local workforce that it was amazing how much better they were to deal with than the locals. he said there were no issues with drug tests, no workplace drama, and they worked like damn dogs. he said the only problem they ever had was when they'd just pick up and go back to Mexico for a couple weeks to tend to their families.
 

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,528
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my dad used to run a massive operation in SC. he told me that once the migrant population started to infiltrate the local workforce that it was amazing how much better they were to deal with than the locals. he said there were no issues with drug tests, no workplace drama, and they worked like damn dogs. he said the only problem they ever had was when they'd just pick up and go back to Mexico for a couple weeks to tend to their families.
Seasonal migrant farmers were and still are a vital part of our economy until we have robots that can do the hand picking in agriculture.
 
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dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
30,329
22,890
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my dad used to run a massive operation in SC. he told me that once the migrant population started to infiltrate the local workforce that it was amazing how much better they were to deal with than the locals. he said there were no issues with drug tests, no workplace drama, and they worked like damn dogs. he said the only problem they ever had was when they'd just pick up and go back to Mexico for a couple weeks to tend to their families.
If you ever watched the Obama produced documentary about the Chinese glass company that opened a plant in Ohio, the difference between the work-ethic of the Chinese and American born workers was eye opening. It just illustrates that Americans really don't want to return to a manufacturing economy - they're much too lazy and spoiled. They were losing **** tons of money due to the lacksadaisical pace of their American employees until they did did a massive restructuring. I highly recommend it to anyone interested in the subject.

 

PawPride

Heisman
Nov 28, 2004
53,139
10,417
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my dad used to run a massive operation in SC. he told me that once the migrant population started to infiltrate the local workforce that it was amazing how much better they were to deal with than the locals. he said there were no issues with drug tests, no workplace drama, and they worked like damn dogs. he said the only problem they ever had was when they'd just pick up and go back to Mexico for a couple weeks to tend to their families.
It's the #1 issue Volvo/Boeing/Mercedes have in their Charleston plants. That's why they've had to import workers from other areas because the locals down here aren't what Haley advertised them as when she negotiated with V/B/M about setting up plants in the lowcountry.
 
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Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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This bitcoin drop is piling on the pressure in other markets.
 

anon1772460595

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Aug 31, 2025
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This bitcoin drop is piling on the pressure in other markets.
I’m curious how we still have this huge AI selloff with the jobs report and tech layoffs. If anything, the expectation seems to be that we’ll need less people. SaaS getting smacked too.

I’m not betting against NVDA or Broadcom. They aren’t going anywhere; we haven’t even reached the tip of the iceberg when it comes to AI applications.
 
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Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
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I’m curious how we still have this huge AI selloff with the jobs report and tech layoffs. If anything, the expectation seems to be that we’ll need less people. SaaS getting smacked too.

I’m not betting against NVDA or Broadcom. They aren’t going anywhere; we haven’t even reached the tip of the iceberg when it comes to AI applications.
I have forgotten the particulars, but Bloomberg explained it this AM and in areas not attributed to AI.
 

Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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I feel a lot better trading gold futures right now than doing anything with NQ.

Tomorrow with weekly options expiration will be interesting to watch and how the balance plays out tomorrow.
 
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Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
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I’m curious how we still have this huge AI selloff with the jobs report and tech layoffs. If anything, the expectation seems to be that we’ll need less people. SaaS getting smacked too.

I’m not betting against NVDA or Broadcom. They aren’t going anywhere; we haven’t even reached the tip of the iceberg when it comes to AI applications.
I agree, but a lot of this is how things are moving through markets. Seems to be a lot of revaluation going on
jmho