The definitive Bowl destination possibilities guide

[615dawg]

I've sourced some things online, talked to a couple of people and here is what we've got.

Let's start with what happened in the Apple Cup. Washington's upset of Washington State means that there will likely be two Pac 12 teams in the New Years 6. The Washington/Utah winner will go to the Rose Bowl, and Washington State is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.

Either Alabama or Georgia is going to the playoff, and the other is going to the New Years 6. LSU beating A&M gives them a New Years 6 game. Throw in the Oklahoma-Texas winner, UCF, Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan and that leaves two New Years 6 spots.

Why is the New Years 6 important to MSU? We need Florida to take a spot. A Florida win over Florida State gives the the top of the two spots. However, Pittsburgh over Clemson or Northwestern over Michigan/Ohio State could hurt Florida.

Florida to the New Years 6 Cheering Guide:
Florida over Florida State
Michigan/Ohio State winner over Northwestern
Clemson over Pittsburgh
Oklahoma over Texas (just to be safe)

The next step down is the Citrus Bowl. Obviously, if Florida does not make the New Years 6, they are going to Orlando. Zero doubt. So lets assume that the Gators take care of business today and head to the New Years 6 - The Citrus will likely take the highest ranked (CFP poll) team between Kentucky, Mississippi State and Missouri. Mizzou will be ranked in the next CFP poll, but not above MSU - so basically the Citrus is in definite play if Florida makes the New Years 6 and Louisville beats Kentucky.

A 2-9 team beating a pretty good Kentucky team is not likely, so the next tier down is the Group of 6 Bowl Games. The SEC considers the Outback, Liberty, Music City, Belk, Texas and Gator Bowls all the same level and works to place teams and bowls together. Here is what I have gathered:

The Gator Bowl is out of play since we played in it last year.
The Music City Bowl will probably take the Tennessee-Vanderbilt winner.
The Liberty really wants Missouri to face them off with a former Big 12 friend.

That leaves the Gator (out of play for MSU) Texas, Outback and Belk Bowls as likely destinations for MSU if the Citrus doesn't happen. These bowls would be picking between Texas A&M, Auburn, South Carolina and MSU.

MSU cant go to the Gator
South Caroina cant go to Outback
Texas A&M cant go to the Belk

So the four possibilities for MSU are:

The Citrus Bowl would be against Penn State or Northwestern (GO LOUISVILLE AND GO FLORIDA)
The Outback Bowl would likely be against a Big Ten team (probable destination if Florida makes NY6)
The Texas Bowl would be against a Big 12 team (probable destination if Florida doesnt make NY6)
The Belk Bowl would be against an ACC team (possible destination)

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Memphis it is!**

 

[thatsbaseball]

What if aTm wins ?

 

[Cap'n Geech]

The magic number is 3. No more than 3 at-large bids to the NY6 can go to non-SEC teams.

12 NY6 spots - 4 SEC teams - 4 non-SEC Power 5 champs - 1 G5 champ = 3 at-large bids to non-SEC teams. 4+ at-large bids to non-SEC teams means less than 4 SEC teams in the NY6.

The Washington State loss puts the 4th SEC team in a precarious position.

Assume the following:
Clemson beats Pittsburgh
Oklahoma beats Texas
Michigan/Ohio State winner beats Northwestern

Non-SEC teams in line for an at-large bid:
1. Notre Dame (at worst 11-1)
2. Washington State (10-2)
3. Michigan/Ohio State loser (10-2)
4. Penn State (9-3 if the beat Maryland, which they should)

That leaves no margin for error. Any upset of Clemson, Oklahoma, or the Michigan/Ohio State winner would prevent the SEC from getting 4 teams in the NY6.

Outside of upsets, Penn State is the key team if they beat Maryland. It will most likely come down to 9-3 Penn State and a 9-3 SEC team (Florida or LSU if they lose to A&M) for the final spot in the NY6. Part of the equation may be that Penn State would be the 3rd Big Ten team while Florida or LSU would be the 4th SEC team. Politically, having 3 teams from both the SEC and the Big Ten is an easier sell than having 4 from the SEC and 2 from the Big Ten. The committee has selected 4 teams from 1 conference once (Big Ten, 2016). In the final CFP rankings that year, the Big Ten had 4 teams in the top-8 while the 3rd highest SEC team was ranked 17th. Florida is currently ranked 11th in the CFP rankings, 1 spot above Penn State.

 

[msudawg1200]

If LSU wins they are in the NY6. I see no way they could jump Florida with Penn State if both win. Texas beating OU next week could be the wrench thrown in the scenarios.

 

[JoMo MoJo]

I think Vegas still has A&M as the favorite against LSU. I don’t know how but Vegas has been on point this year.

 

[thatsbaseball]

but what if LSU loses...they're a 3 pt dog

 

[topbulldawg]

I think you have two really faulty assumptions:
1) I don't see TN/Vanderbilt jumping all those other teams to get into the Music City Bowl.
2) I am not sure the Liberty Bowl has the clout to convince the SEC to send Missouri to the Liberty (although I don't see that as unlikely as #1).

Those two assumptions have dramatic implications on your projection.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

If LSU loses and everybody else takes care of business, the committee will pick 2 out of these 3 for the last two spots in the NY6: LSU, Florida, and Penn State, all at 9-3. In that scenario we would at least get a 3rd team, but the 4th team would have to be selected over Penn State with the same record. There would be pressure on the committee to give the Big Ten a 3rd team rather than the SEC a 4th team, especially with comparable resumes. If LSU wins, they're in, but Florida would still be in competition with Penn State for the last spot.

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

I think you have two really faulty assumptions:
1) I don't see TN/Vanderbilt jumping all those other teams to get into the Music City Bowl.
2) I am not sure the Liberty Bowl has the clout to convince the SEC to send Missouri to the Liberty (although I don't see that as unlikely as #1).

Those two assumptions have dramatic implications on your projection.

Music City = Liberty, Music City would tell their preferences and the SEC works to find the best fit. This is why the Liberty isn't totally out of the realm of possibilities for us.

Liberty makes sense for Mizzou and Outback makes sense for us due to the JoeMo connection to the Big Ten. We will see what happens but we definitely don't need someone upsetting a team outside of the top 12.

 

[topbulldawg]

TN/Vanderbilt would be jumping from the Birmingham bowl and knocking a team down there if they got Music City; I think that is pretty unlikely.

Liberty and Music City on paper are the same but I don't think it's like that in practice. I could definitely see us in the Outback but just don't agree with the original thought process that out is there.

Also keep in mind that the schools also give their preferences on where they go. I don't think the bowls have much say so, other than a few (Citrus, Outback)

 

[8dog]

There is no way those 6 bowls are really treated equally. Liberty didnt get an sec team last year. Does anyone ever think the conference isnt gonna send a team to the outback?

 

[thatsbaseball]

Michigan is getting blasted....who is the 4th playoff team now ?

 

[Cap'n Geech]

3 possibilities: Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.

Georgia is in if they beat Bama. Some say they can also get in at 11-2.

Oklahoma has to beat Texas.

Ohio State has to beat Northwestern.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

2 loss Georgia is more impressive than either Oklahoma or Ohio State if they are somewhat competitive with Bama

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I agree, but I will be surprised if a 2-loss non SEC champ is selected over a 1-loss Big XII or Big Ten champ. I was surprised last year when they selected Alabama over Ohio State though, so you never know.

 

[msudawg1200]

If Oklahoma gets in the playoff that puts the next highest ranked(probably Texas or maybe WVU) in the Sugar. If that happened and everything else plays out to form we’d have:
Cotton- Bama vs OU
Orange-Clemson vs ND
Sugar- UGA(possibly LSU) vs either Texas or WVU
Rose- Ohio St vs PAC 12 winner(Washington or Utah)
Fiesta- probably UCF vs. LSU
Peach- Michigan vs Florida
Questions are: Does Washington State(currently 8) drop below Florida(currently 11), and how far does Michigan(currently 4) drop and Ohio State(currently 10) move up? I think Wazzu drops below UF, but if not they probably get the Fiesta. If Ohio State gets in the playoff over OU that makes it much easier for the 4th SEC team to get in. All that said if LSU loses to the Aggies our bowl fortunes drop tremendously.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I don't see 8-3 West Virginia or 9-4 Texas getting in the NY6 over 10-2 Washington State. West Virginia is done, and Texas has to beat Oklahoma to get in the NY6.

 

[msudawg1200]

It’s in the Sugar Bowl contract that in years that they don’t host a playoff game they take the champions of the SEC and Big 12. If the champion of the conference is on the playoff they take the highest ranked CFP team of said conference. So, if our champ is Bama and the Big 12’s is OU and they make the CFP, then the next highest ranked teams go which I’d assume would be UGA or LSU for the SEC and Texas or WVA for the Big 12.

 

[Go Budaw]

Liberty makes sense for Mizzou and Outback makes sense for us due to the JoeMo connection to the Big Ten. We will see what happens but we definitely don't need someone upsetting a team outside of the top 12.

It will be a cold day in hell before we ever play in the Outback. We’ve had a thousand chances to go there over 20 years and they have shunned us every time. They want either an East team not named Missouri, or a big name West team (Auburn, Alabama, LSU, or A&M). We aren’t going there.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I see. So if Oklahoma loses, we lose a spot to Texas. If Oklahoma wins and is in the CFP, we lose a spot to a lower ranked West Virginia or Texas. We need Oklahoma to win but not make the playoff. Georgia beating Bama could solve that.

 

[615dawg]

Yes. An 8-4 Auburn team went to the Sugar Bowl for the same reason. If Oklahoma makes the playoff, Texas or West Virginia is guaranteed the Sugar Bowl.

Conference Champs + UCF and Notre Dame = 7 spots
Likely Big 12 Contractual = 1 spot
Georgia, Michigan = 2 spots

2 spots for Florida, Washington State, LSU + below possibilities

Ohio State (if loss to NW)
Clemson (if loss to Pitt)

No room for error from here on out. Basically a Louisville win moves us up a spot, but a Texas A&M win moves us down a spot. Northwestern and Pitt winning next week would move us down a spot each.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I don't see how Washington State is left out at 10-2. So if West Virginia or Texas is in either by Texas beating Oklahoma or Oklahoma winning and making the CFP, I don't see the SEC getting 4 teams in the NY6.

Am I wrong about Washington State? Somebody please make the argument for 9-3 Florida in the NY6 over 10-2 Washington State.

 

[8dog]

I think okl winning the big 12 and missing the playoffs is about the only shot at 4 sec teams in the ny6 . That may happen if oh st goes abead of them or if ga beats bama and they both make the playoff

 

[Cubswillwinitonedaydawg]

Here's CBS latest for playoff and NY6.
They bumped Ohio state all the way up to the playoff.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...-begins-for-the-college-football-playoff/amp/

 

[msudawg1200]

That would be the best scenario for us. Everything hold true to form from here on out(no upsets), and for Ohio State to make the playoffs and Oklahoma win the Big 12 title game.

 

[mount lefroy]

3 possibilities: Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.

Georgia is in if they beat Bama. Some say they can also get in at 11-2.

Oklahoma has to beat Texas.

Ohio State has to beat Northwestern.

So Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State all lose in conference championships. Georgia by a large margin.

Does LSU go in over UCF?

 

[was21]

LSU has to get by ATM first

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I would think in that crazy scenario Georgia could still get in with a respectable loss to Alabama on a neutral field.

But my dream scenario is Georgia beats Alabama, and the playoff is Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama. 3 of the Power 5 conferences left out. I would expect an 8 team playoff before the end of the current CFP contract if that happens.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

Can UK move up to NY6 if LSU loses?

Yes. An 8-4 Auburn team went to the Sugar Bowl for the same reason. If Oklahoma makes the playoff, Texas or West Virginia is guaranteed the Sugar Bowl.

Conference Champs + UCF and Notre Dame = 7 spots
Likely Big 12 Contractual = 1 spot
Georgia, Michigan = 2 spots

2 spots for Florida, Washington State, LSU + below possibilities

Ohio State (if loss to NW)
Clemson (if loss to Pitt)

No room for error from here on out. Basically a Louisville win moves us up a spot, but a Texas A&M win moves us down a spot. Northwestern and Pitt winning next week would move us down a spot each.

And will LSU go to Citrus Bowl for 3rd consecutive year? Lots of unknowns

 

[8dog]

Very. Very. Unlikely