The Best Bowl Scenario

[615dawg]

I've been punching some numbers and looking at the best bowl scenarios. In my opinion, without a win over Alabama, we have a very outside shot at a NY6 game, but a really good shot at the Citrus Bowl. If you don't know, the Citrus Bowl is a tier between the NY6 and the Group of 6 games that are all the same. It will be played against the top Big Ten or ACC team not involved in the NY6. Right now, those contenders are Virginia Tech, NC State, and Michigan State

So what has to happen?
We need to go 9-3. That means winning every game we play sans Alabama. Beating Texas A&M should get us into the first CFP rankings which will be released next week. Those are the rankings that matter. The AP and Coaches poll mean nothing after this week. Remember that the statistical rankings weigh heavily on the committee. We are currently #17/#18 in those rankings.

To have a legit shot at the NY6, we need to be #20 or better in the first CFP ranking. I think the committee will devalue UCF and USF, and according to FPI, we would be favored over up to 13 ranked teams right now, 8 of which would not matter where we played.

Ok, we need to beat A&M, but don't we need some help?
Well yes and no. If we end up 9-3, our only competition for the Citrus Bowl would be Auburn. Auburn still has Georgia and Alabama on their schedule. You really want them to lose both those games. Auburn losing to Texas A&M wouldn't hurt either. But if Auburn were to slip up and beat one of them, they would likely get an at-large spot in the NY6 and open up the Citrus Bowl.

Screw the Citrus Bowl, I want the New Years 6!
The most likely NY6 spot for us would be the Peach Bowl. Alabama/Georgia will make the playoff (Sugar Bowl) and the other will make the Orange Bowl like we did in '14. There will be four true at-large spots after the conference champion and the top Non P-5 team (likely the UCF/USF winner) get the spot. What does that mean? It means that in order to end up in a NY6 game, we need to end up in the Top 12 in the final rankings.

There are two paths to this. The hard way and the harder way.

The hard way is to beat Alabama. If we beat Alabama, and take care of business against Arkansas and Ole Miss, we will likely end the season around #8 or so and get one of the at-large spots.

The harder way is to end up #20 after beating A&M, move up a little after beating UMass, play Alabama close and stay around #20. Then cheer against teams ranked #12-#19 in the last two weeks of the season as we win impressively. Its not as long of a shot as it seems, as many of the teams in that group have big games against higher ranked teams.

What if none of this happens?
Like I said, in order to be in play for the Citrus Bowl, we need to win our non-Alabama games. A 9-3 Mississippi State is likely playing in Orlando on New Year's Day. If we lose to A&M, Arkansas or Ole Miss, we drop to the Group of Six Bowls - Liberty, Music City, Belk, Gator, Texas, Outback. My feeling is that we would be headed to Memphis and playing a Big 12 team like Iowa State or West Virginia. The second most probable is going to Houston and playing a little better Big 12 team like Oklahoma State.

Who do you think is in the New Years 6 right now?
Right now, the playoff games are Alabama vs. Clemson and TCU vs. Penn State. This talk of 2 teams from the same conference making the playoffs is garbage. It won't happen. But, there are at least seven teams that have a legit shot at making the playoffs:

Georgia is in if they win the SEC
Wisconsin and Ohio State need to win the Big Ten with no more losses. Penn State can afford a loss this weekend and still be in.
Miami would need to finish undefeated, but could win the ACC.
The Bedlam winner could beat TCU for the Big 12, assuming they don't lose to someone they shouldn't
And Notre Dame looks prime to take a spot if they win out and get a little help.

Georgia Wisconsin, Ohio State, Miami, the Bedlam winner and Notre Dame will take up five of the remaining eight spots in the NY6. The UCF/USF winner will get the sixth. That leaves one spot.

Right now, the top contenders are the Apple Cup winner (Washington/Washington State) and either NC State or Virginia Tech. Michigan State and Auburn are the next two - then it is wide open.

 

[bulldognation]

Birmingham Bowl - Here We Come!

 

[RiverCityDawg]

Maybe I missed it in your post, but could the Citrus Bowl take LSU with the same record as us or LSU/Auburn with one more loss than us? If they can, they will.

 

[HD6]

LSU played in the Citrus last season.

 

[Drebin]

If both Georgia and Alabama are undefeated going into the sec championship and it's a nail biter of a game, both teams are getting into the playoff, period. It's not even a debate. Right now they are the two best teams in the nation.

 

[patdog]

I don't even think it has to be a nailbiter. As long as it's a reasonably close game, I think they'd both be in. Still a long way to go though. When's the last time the SEC (or any major conference) had two undefeated teams at the end of the regular season?

 

[msstate7]

First of all, great post. With that said, I don’t think penn st can lose this week and make the playoffs. If they lose, Ohio st almost certainly wins out and beats Wisconsin in big 10 championship. Winner of Saturday’s game (OSU-Wisconsin) will play Wisconsin for playoff spot imo

ETA... I’ll be pretty surprised if auburn loses both of Georgia and Bama. They’re at home and I think auburn will give both trouble

 

[johnson86-1]

Maybe I missed it in your post, but could the Citrus Bowl take LSU with the same record as us or LSU/Auburn with one more loss than us? If they can, they will.

It used to be that the loser of the SEC Championship game was guaranteed to not fall below the Citrus (I think? Or maybe not below the outback/cotton bowls?) and you couldn't pass a team over for another team with a record more than one game worse.

Can't find anything on the rules now. All I can find is this:

http://www.secsports.com/article/18165241/bowl-selection-process

which just says Citrus gets first pick after CFP and NY6 bowls.

 

[kired]

Of the SEC 6 --- Texas is a Tuesday night (12/27) between Christmas & New Years. I guess it's an easy trip for everyone who can take off work that whole week, which I plan to do anyway. Belk & Music are Friday afternoon, Gator & Liberty are Saturday noonish, and Outback is noon New Years Day (basically same time as Citrus).

Looking at it like that, my personal preference of the 6 would be Music or Texas, followed by Liberty, Gator, Belk & Outback in that order. I don't really want to be in Tampa for a game New Years day on a Monday (but I'd take Citrus at the same time just because it's the next best thing to NY6).

 

[HD6]

Yes, but the loser of the SEC Championship game this year will either still be in the Playoff or at worst in one of that top tier bowls. Alabama and Georgia aren't falling to the Citrus.

 

[johnson86-1]

Yes, but the loser of the SEC Championship game this year will either still be in the Playoff or at worst in one of that top tier bowls. Alabama and Georgia aren't falling to the Citrus.

I was just pointing out how it used to be. Even as weak as some of the East champions have been, I'm not sure when the last time that guarantee was necessary, because even if the East Champ was weak, the west has consistently had two or even three west teams competitive for better bowls.

 

[Xenomorph]

UGA would have to keep it close. Look bad in a loss to Bama and the rest of college football will scream that their best two wins weren't even from the SEC East. Basically if they got left out its UF's and UT's fault for sucking so bad. Nobody will care how good UGA is... It'll all be about who they beat.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Of the SEC 6 --- Texas is a Tuesday night (12/27) between Christmas & New Years. I guess it's an easy trip for everyone who can take off work that whole week, which I plan to do anyway. Belk & Music are Friday afternoon, Gator & Liberty are Saturday noonish, and Outback is noon New Years Day (basically same time as Citrus).

Looking at it like that, my personal preference of the 6 would be Music or Texas, followed by Liberty, Gator, Belk & Outback in that order. I don't really want to be in Tampa for a game New Years day on a Monday (but I'd take Citrus at the same time just because it's the next best thing to NY6).

Give me Outback in Tampa on New Year's Day. Last year on NYD it was 70 degrees and sunny.

Spend the weekend in Tampa/St Pete then head back after the game on Monday. I could make that work.

 

[00Dawg]

We're not getting in the NY6 at 9-3 barring a near-miraculous scenario.

If this was a year the Sugar Bowl was free, we'd have a shot tied to UGA making the CFP, but since it's hosting a playoff game this year, we lose that tie-in. We actually have to finish in the Top 11 unless the highest-ranked G5 team meets or exceeds that mark.

Assuming we beat TAMU and hang with Bama, these are the things that would help:
Part 1 is keeping the ACC champion out of the playoff so they eat up that guaranteed ACC Orange Bowl slot while the rest of the ACC teams falter (unlikely).
Part 2 is Washington winning out to take the PAC-12 champion slot, but not making the CFP (quite possible).
Part 3 is a series of Big 10/Notre Dame stumbles that leave only one of that group in the CFP, and another in the Orange Bowl (unlikely).
Part 4 is TCU running the table to the CFP while OU and OSU stumble down the stretch (possible).
Part 5 is A&M and LSU beating everyone but Bama down the stretch so that both are quality wins, but still ranked below us, while Auburn drops 3 of their last 4 (possible).
Part 6 is no one else getting hot and making a run (unlikely).


You need probably 4 of those things to happen for us to land in the top 11.

 

[615dawg]

SEC gets an Orange Bowl bid when the Sugar hosts a playoff game. That's how we ended up there in 2014.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

The dream that we are "hanging with Bama" is tied to it being at home? Nothing else says we are hanging with them. We come into the game ranked and saban is going for points to secure their spot.

 

[johnson86-1]

If this was a year the Sugar Bowl was free, we'd have a shot tied to UGA making the CFP, but since it's hosting a playoff game this year, we lose that tie-in. We actually have to finish in the Top 11 unless the highest-ranked G5 team meets or exceeds that mark.

Assuming we beat TAMU and hang with Bama, these are the things that would help:
Part 1 is keeping the ACC champion out of the playoff so they eat up that guaranteed ACC Orange Bowl slot while the rest of the ACC teams falter (unlikely).
Part 2 is Washington winning out to take the PAC-12 champion slot, but not making the CFP (quite possible).
Part 3 is a series of Big 10/Notre Dame stumbles that leave only one of that group in the CFP, and another in the Orange Bowl (unlikely).
Part 4 is TCU running the table to the CFP while OU and OSU stumble down the stretch (possible).
Part 5 is A&M and LSU beating everyone but Bama down the stretch so that both are quality wins, but still ranked below us, while Auburn drops 3 of their last 4 (possible).
Part 6 is no one else getting hot and making a run (unlikely).


You need probably 4 of those things to happen for us to land in the top 11.

I was about to argue with you that we don't need a miracle since the computer ratings have us in the high teens and Ole Miss made it to a NY6 bowl in 2014 at 9-3, but looking at our best case scenario resume, I'm not sure.

Our best potential resume is likely going to be a loss to Bama, blowout loss to UGA, a blowout loss to an 8-4 Auburn team, and then our best win will be a win over either an 8-4 A&M team and then a 7-5 LSU team, (or an 8-4 LSU and 7-5 A&M). If we don't just destroy people from here on out, I'm not sure that gets us the hype we need. That would probably be sufficient if we had started with some hype, but not where we are right now.

Alternatively I guess there is an extremely slim chance we could have a win over a 9-3 A&M team, a blowout win over a 7-5 LSU team, and then a blowout loss to a 7-5 Auburn team to go along with losses to Bama and UGA. Then we'd just have two understandable losses and an awful inexplicable loss to Auburn. But then A&M would of course be ahead of us, at least in conference record.

 

[jcdawgman18]

Who do you think is in the New Years 6 right now?
Right now, the playoff games are Alabama vs. Clemson and TCU vs. Penn State. This talk of 2 teams from the same conference making the playoffs is garbage. It won't happen. But, there are at least seven teams that have a legit shot at making the playoffs:

Georgia is in if they win the SEC
Wisconsin and Ohio State need to win the Big Ten with no more losses. Penn State can afford a loss this weekend and still be in.
Miami would need to finish undefeated, but could win the ACC.
The Bedlam winner could beat TCU for the Big 12, assuming they don't lose to someone they shouldn't
And Notre Dame looks prime to take a spot if they win out and get a little help.

Georgia Wisconsin, Ohio State, Miami, the Bedlam winner and Notre Dame will take up five of the remaining eight spots in the NY6. The UCF/USF winner will get the sixth. That leaves one spot.

Right now, the top contenders are the Apple Cup winner (Washington/Washington State) and either NC State or Virginia Tech. Michigan State and Auburn are the next two - then it is wide open.

Isn't the PAC-12 champ guaranteed a spot in the NY6? Wouldn't that take that last spot you're pointing out?

 

[00Dawg]

Not that simple, I'm afraid.

This year the Orange Bowl gets the highest-rated team out of the SEC, Big 10, or ND not in the playoff, and that team cannot be a conference champion. If the season ended today that would be Wisconsin.
In 2019, with both the Sugar and Orange Bowl available, the Sugar gets first pick of an SEC team after the CFP, but it is possible that both bowls get an SEC team.

In 2014, we got the slot because we were the highest-ranked SEC/Big 10/ND team not in the CFP, we weren't the conference champs, and the Sugar Bowl wasn't available.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings/_/week/16/year/2014/seasontype/2

 

[00Dawg]

Yeah, Part 5 includes a 9-3 TAMU and an 8-4 LSU.

Auburn does drop to 7-5 in that scenario. A&M would be ahead of us in the SEC standings, but not in the CFP rankings. I don't think a loss on the road to Auburn would be an albatross to the committee, although maybe the score does make a difference.

I suppose the "nightmare scenario" here is Part 5 happens, but not much else. That puts us out of the NY6 range, makes 9-3 TAMU justifiable to the Citrus (conference standings), 8-4 LSU attractive to the Outback, and a 9-3 State heads to Houston, Nashville, or Jacksonville. I don't give that scenario much credence, though.