The 4A Map Just Got REAL Interesting

[The_Oldfan]

I think this difference is both RB and JCA are much better teams than Rochester and Jacksonville and therefore would have a better chance of being successful using this strategy.

They lost to JCA last year because JCA had
1) a great lock-down defense
2) two of the best HS RBs that I've ever seen. They are, based on the games and game fragments that I've s seen, not as good this year.

R-B has, I think, a better offense than JCA this year but from what I saw against Morris, nothing like those two animals JCA had last year. I think the game would balance on their defense, which like SHG does not seem to have been tested except by Normal West.

Rochester had a much better offense than this year with a player who is starting as a freshman at UIU-C and split with an SHG that was, again IMHO, not as good as this year. Morris didn't look so good against R-B but everyone has down games.

 

[JCHillmen]

They lost to JCA last year because JCA had
1) a great lock-down defense
2) two of the best HS RBs that I've ever seen. They are, based on the games and game fragments that I've s seen, not as good this year.

R-B has, I think, a better offense than JCA this year but from what I saw against Morris, nothing like those two animals JCA had last year. I think the game would balance on their defense, which like SHG does not seem to have been tested except by Normal West.

Rochester had a much better offense than this year with a player who is starting as a freshman at UIU-C and split with an SHG that was, again IMHO, not as good as this year. Morris didn't look so good against R-B but everyone has down games.

Aren’t we all saying the exact same thing here?

SHG the most talented in 4a and likely the favorite behind their talent.

rochester substantially behind in terms of talent but still capable of pulling the upset.

a bevy of 4 or more teams, mostly from the north, who are a notch or several notches behind SHG in terms of talent. Whoever survives could potentially give SHG a game and could get run off the field. Of those 4 contenders, RB and JC likely have the best chance to maybe beat SHG because their style of play can shorten the game and at least in theory attempt to neutralize SHGs superior talent.

From what I can tell, PC and SF would likely try to out SHG SHG and I just don’t know if that’s doable. Perhaps we will know more if SF runs IC off the field this weekend.

but as it is now I think we are all saying the same thing.SHG the likely favorite as they have been all year. RB on the rise and a real threat to beat anyone. If they’re not the favorite, they are right behind SHG. I believe they are capable of winning that matchup if just a few breaks go their way. After those two, JC, SF, PC, and perhaps Rochester and Morris remain potential problems for anyone to deal with.

not really sure why cigaros went and confused the whole thing by essentially saying nobody will play ball control on SHG and be successful this year because they can score too quickly. We all understand they are good and explosive and the pretty clear favorite. Ball control is still the only way they get defeated. And if that’s not possible, then they likely weren’t getting beaten anyway.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Aren’t we all saying the exact same thing here?

SHG the most talented in 4a and likely the favorite behind their talent.

rochester substantially behind in terms of talent but still capable of pulling the upset.

a bevy of 4 or more teams, mostly from the north, who are a notch or several notches behind SHG in terms of talent. Whoever survives could potentially give SHG a game and could get run off the field. Of those 4 contenders, RB and JC likely have the best chance to maybe beat SHG because their style of play can shorten the game and at least in theory attempt to neutralize SHGs superior talent.

From what I can tell, PC and SF would likely try to out SHG SHG and I just don’t know if that’s doable. Perhaps we will know more if SF runs IC off the field this weekend.

but as it is now I think we are all saying the same thing.SHG the likely favorite as they have been all year. RB on the rise and a real threat to beat anyone. If they’re not the favorite, they are right behind SHG. I believe they are capable of winning that matchup if just a few breaks go their way. After those two, JC, SF, PC, and perhaps Rochester and Morris remain potential problems for anyone to deal with.

not really sure why cigaros went and confused the whole thing by essentially saying nobody will play ball control on SHG and be successful this year because they can score too quickly. We all understand they are good and explosive and the pretty clear favorite. Ball control is still the only way they get defeated. And if that’s not possible, then they likely weren’t getting beaten anyway.

We’ve been saying this all thread!!

 

[atrain97]

Accurate…4 FBS scholly offers currently on the roster, 1 FBS preferred walk-on and then a handful of kids with FCS offers and interests.

While it certainly doesn't hurt, recruitable talent doesn't always translate to being a "great" HS player. Many times they are being recruited for their potential, not their current ability. I think we all get caught up in this when evaluating HS teams.

 

[cigaros]

I think this difference is both RB and JCA are much better teams than Rochester and Jacksonville and therefore would have a better chance of being successful using this strategy.

I've seen all 4 teams. JCA has to outscore opponents because it is not stopping ANY of the of the good ones. Against teams with a winning record not from Wisconsin, they are -4 in point differential (I did not include Benet because I anticipate them losing to Naz and finishing 4-5). Richmond Burton is the team to be reckoned with in the Northern bracket. But they will have to stop the big play and the sustained drive. The SHG offense is capable of both. To think Ken will not share insights with Derek should Rochester beat SHG and then face JCA would be foolish. As for Richmond Burton, I am certain revenge would be on their minds as Rochester stopped them on their last drive in 2011 for their 2nd of 8 state championships since 2010. I anticipate a Richmond-Burton vs SHG final. It will be a 4A championship to enjoy no matter who you cheer for.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

While it certainly doesn't hurt, recruitable talent doesn't always translate to being a "great" HS player. Many times they are being recruited for their potential, not their current ability. I think we all get caught up in this when evaluating HS teams.

Totally fair point…

 

[USD24]

I've seen all 4 teams. JCA has to outscore opponents because it is not stopping ANY of the of the good ones. Against teams with a winning record not from Wisconsin, they are -4 in point differential (I did not include Benet because I anticipate them losing to Naz and finishing 4-5). Richmond Burton is the team to be reckoned with in the Northern bracket. But they will have to stop the big play and the sustained drive. The SHG offense is capable of both. To think Ken will not share insights with Derek should Rochester beat SHG and then face JCA would be foolish. As for Richmond Burton, I am certain revenge would be on their minds as Rochester stopped them on their last drive in 2011 for their 2nd of 8 state championships since 2010. I anticipate a Richmond-Burton vs SHG final. It will be a 4A championship to enjoy no matter who you cheer for.

Ken has lost all four games he has coached vs JCA, I am not sure Derek would want his insight . I am not sure revenge would be a factor for R-B. The current players were 5-7 years old in 2011.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

It’s interesting how the perceived north bracket is kinda waiting on what happens in Elmhurst Friday night.

 

[The_Oldfan]

It’s interesting how the perceived north bracket is kinda waiting on what happens in Elmhurst Friday night.

Well, at least there is some drama this week. For most of the contenders, the only questions this weekend are how early they can seat their starters and who they draw in the pairings. Will the game be streamed?

 

[cigaros]

Ken has lost all four games he has coached vs JCA, I am not sure Derek would want his insight . I am not sure revenge would be a factor for R-B. The current players were 5-7 years old in 2011.

JCA wasn't good enough to meet them in the final in 13 or 14. No one was beating SHG in 2020/21. That was a Super Team. And JCA's Super Team was last year. Should Derek's Rockets beat Ken's Cyclones in the 4A semi, Derek has proven himself to be a worthy scout but also a willing recipient of assistance from his Dad who can show him what not to do. Most fans of the Cubs weren't alive to witness their 2nd most recent World Series, but they still found special pleasure in breaking the curse. I would bet thoughts of avenging the RB team of 2011 would come to mind as it did for the hapless Cubs.

 

[The_Oldfan]

JCA wasn't good enough to meet them in the final in 13 or 14. No one was beating SHG in 2020/21. That was a Super Team. And JCA's Super Team was last year. Should Derek's Rockets beat Ken's Cyclones in the 4A semi, Derek has proven himself to be a worthy scout but also a willing recipient of assistance from his Dad who can show him what not to do. Most fans of the Cubs weren't alive to witness their 2nd most recent World Series, but they still found special pleasure in breaking the curse. I would bet thoughts of avenging the RB team of 2011 would come to mind as it did for the hapless Cubs.

The dream of all true Cyclone fans is meeting JCA with one of our top teams. Instead we always seem to go up against them with a team of average overachievers meeting their great teams. We thought it was there in 2010 with Peterman and Robinson before the "upset" by Jacksonville. Last time our team of mostly underclassmen was not even supposed to get past Rochester. Spring 21 SHG was unstoppable but there was no playoff.

Some of us don't want to play Rochester a second time. But truth be told, it doesn't matter who is in the South Bracket. The goal of the season is Thanksgiving Friday and it will be ideal if somehow the Hilltoppers are waiting.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

The dream of all true Cyclone fans is meeting JCA with one of our top teams. Instead we always seem to go up against them with a team of average overachievers meeting their great teams. We thought it was there in 2010 with Peterman and Robinson before the "upset" by Jacksonville. Last time our team of mostly underclassmen was not even supposed to get past Rochester. Spring 21 SHG was unstoppable but there was no playoff.

Some of us don't want to play Rochester a second time. But truth be told, it doesn't matter who is in the South Bracket. The goal of the season is Thanksgiving Friday and it will be ideal if somehow the Hilltoppers are waiting.

The Peterman and Robinson team was in 2004. They had lost to JCA 24-21 in the championship game the year before (2003), the closest game between the two by far. In 2010 they lost to J'ville in the 1st round in a truly bizarre game at Memorial Stadium. Heard some rumors about why the Cyclones played so "great" in that game. What many may have forgot is the Cyclones were almost beat at Jacksonville in the 2003 playoffs. The only reason they weren't is that Peterman, put in on defense, slapped away a potential game winning pass in the end zone. It was almost ordained that the following year )2004) the Crimsons would get them.

 

[pjjp]

It’s interesting how the perceived north bracket is kinda waiting on what happens in Elmhurst Friday night.

Very true. I can only speak for myself, but the IC team I saw in Week 2 was awfully good. If the Spartans can handle those guys in Elmhurst, it will more than prove their playoff pedigree.

 

[Rockets9900]

Is ball control not one way to win if you can finish drives? A couple 8 minute drives in the first half both punctuated with scores is an effective way to shorten the game. This is football 101 when one team has more talent (SHG) and the team with less talent but immense discipline and composure (RB) wants to counter their advantage by shortening the length of the game. When both teams are throwing the ball and scoring quickly the more talented team with more weapons will win 97 percent of the time. When the game gets compressed and each team only gets 6 possessions, one turnover by the superior team can swing the game.

I don’t eee Rochester or st Francis beating SHG. RB and JC would likely be underdogs but I could see them having a better chance because of how they would almost certainly shorten the game and put premiums on each possession . They would create a leverage point in a game with only 5 to 8 possessions per team. Any fumble can swing the game and if you can steal just one possession on a turnover or onside kick or defensive stop, that may be enough to win the game if you can convert on your drives.

in a track meet, you either have to score 9 to 10 times or create more turnovers/get more stops. And against SHG that sounds like it’s not likely.

this is what RB did to JC last year and it almost worked. They weren’t going to beat a physically superior opponent by going score for score with them over 12 possessions apiece. Sounds like SHG is the same juggernaut this year. Wont that be every teams approach? I know it’s easier said than done, but isn’t ball control how lesser talented teams beat more talented teams? Like how ESL lost last year??? Yes you still have to get a few stops and convert on offense, but if the recipe for Cary grove to beat esl was 30 plus minutes of possession and 60 rushing attempts, that is the template for any 4a team to have a chance against SHG.

or is SHG even more beyond the 4a field than ESL was the 6a field last year where even a perfectly placed ball control game of keep away won’t be able to stop then? If so, are they even beatable? If so, do you suggest attempting to go toe to toe in a shootout with ken Leonard’s best offense ever?

Best take on this thread

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Is ball control not one way to win if you can finish drives? A couple 8 minute drives in the first half both punctuated with scores is an effective way to shorten the game. This is football 101 when one team has more talent (SHG) and the team with less talent but immense discipline and composure (RB) wants to counter their advantage by shortening the length of the game. When both teams are throwing the ball and scoring quickly the more talented team with more weapons will win 97 percent of the time. When the game gets compressed and each team only gets 6 possessions, one turnover by the superior team can swing the game.

I don’t eee Rochester or st Francis beating SHG. RB and JC would likely be underdogs but I could see them having a better chance because of how they would almost certainly shorten the game and put premiums on each possession . They would create a leverage point in a game with only 5 to 8 possessions per team. Any fumble can swing the game and if you can steal just one possession on a turnover or onside kick or defensive stop, that may be enough to win the game if you can convert on your drives.

in a track meet, you either have to score 9 to 10 times or create more turnovers/get more stops. And against SHG that sounds like it’s not likely.

this is what RB did to JC last year and it almost worked. They weren’t going to beat a physically superior opponent by going score for score with them over 12 possessions apiece. Sounds like SHG is the same juggernaut this year. Wont that be every teams approach? I know it’s easier said than done, but isn’t ball control how lesser talented teams beat more talented teams? Like how ESL lost last year??? Yes you still have to get a few stops and convert on offense, but if the recipe for Cary grove to beat esl was 30 plus minutes of possession and 60 rushing attempts, that is the template for any 4a team to have a chance against SHG.

or is SHG even more beyond the 4a field than ESL was the 6a field last year where even a perfectly placed ball control game of keep away won’t be able to stop then? If so, are they even beatable? If so, do you suggest attempting to go toe to toe in a shootout with ken Leonard’s best offense ever?

I think Aidan Voss was the key to JCA last year. He gave the Hilltoppers the arm and play action capability to keep defenses off balance enough to make their running attack even more potent. I remember the first half of their semifinal game against RB last year as I'm sure you do. RB was containing the run game until Voss hit a long pass in the second quarter. I felt the momentum shift on that single play. Once RB knew that they also had to contend with JCA's passing game, I almost sensed a feeling of doubt start to seep into the Rockets' defense.

 

[USD24]

JCA wasn't good enough to meet them in the final in 13 or 14. No one was beating SHG in 2020/21. That was a Super Team. And JCA's Super Team was last year. Should Derek's Rockets beat Ken's Cyclones in the 4A semi, Derek has proven himself to be a worthy scout but also a willing recipient of assistance from his Dad who can show him what not to do. Most fans of the Cubs weren't alive to witness their 2nd most recent World Series, but they still found special pleasure in breaking the curse. I would bet thoughts of avenging the RB team of 2011 would come to mind as it did for the hapless Cubs.

I disagree. I think JCA beats them in 2020/21, but we will never know.

 

[DMurph11]

I disagree. I think JCA beats them in 2020/21, but we will never know.

Not to be the “BUT THE SPARTANS” guy (which I am)…but SF also was poised to have their best team that year. Absolutely trounced everyone on their schedule that spring, IC included. I think automatically handing the theoretical title to SHG in 2020/2021 would be silly given how strong JCA and SF were that season.

 

[cornerrat]

JCA wasn't good enough to meet them in the final in 13 or 14. No one was beating SHG in 2020/21. That was a Super Team. And JCA's Super Team was last year. Should Derek's Rockets beat Ken's Cyclones in the 4A semi, Derek has proven himself to be a worthy scout but also a willing recipient of assistance from his Dad who can show him what not to do. Most fans of the Cubs weren't alive to witness their 2nd most recent World Series, but they still found special pleasure in breaking the curse. I would bet thoughts of avenging the RB team of 2011 would come to mind as it did for the hapless Cubs.

All.... This ^ as it applies to SHG and JCA. The "stars" never seem to align correctly for the Cycs when a different outcome would happen between the two. But they couldn't get there. Would like to see JCA get out of the north and SHG out of the south make it to Champaign. I'd even take the Hilltoppers dropping into the south. Wouldn't that be fun. The Rockets, Cyclones, and Hilltoppers all in that bracket of 16. Ribeye steaks at the tailgate! Ratsy

 

[DMurph11]

All.... This ^ as it applies to SHG and JCA. The "stars" never seem to align correctly for the Cycs when a different outcome would happen between the two. But they couldn't get there. Would like to see JCA get out of the north and SHG out of the south make it to Champaign. I'd even take the Hilltoppers dropping into the south. Wouldn't that be fun. The Rockets, Cyclones, and Hilltoppers all in that bracket of 16. Ratsy

I would also like JCA to drop out of the North bracket…..

 

[cornerrat]

I would also like JCA to drop out of the North bracket…..

All.... Haaaaaaa. Ok.... Stranger things have happened. I don't recall the year but when the postseason qualifiers were announced real geography and everyone following who goes where had JCA in the south. The Ihsa said nope we are putting them north. Maybe the opposite happens this time around. Ratsy

 

[USD24]

The dream of all true Cyclone fans is meeting JCA with one of our top teams. Instead we always seem to go up against them with a team of average overachievers meeting their great teams. We thought it was there in 2010 with Peterman and Robinson before the "upset" by Jacksonville. Last time our team of mostly underclassmen was not even supposed to get past Rochester. Spring 21 SHG was unstoppable but there was no playoff.

Some of us don't want to play Rochester a second time. But truth be told, it doesn't matter who is in the South Bracket. The goal of the season is Thanksgiving Friday and it will be ideal if somehow the Hilltoppers are waiting.

Average overachievers? Three of the four times JCA has played SHG in the playoffs, the Cyclones have come into the game undefeated. The 2000 and 2021 JCA teams that beat SHG were two of JC'S better teams, however, the 2011 JCA team that beat SHG 49-7 had 3 losses and the 2003 team had a regular season loss. And I would put the Spring 21 JCA team up against anyone in the state.

From everything I have seen and read, this is a great SHG team and I would also love for the Hilltoppers to meet up with them on Thanksgiving, although at this point, I think there are a few teams in the north with a better shot than JC.

 

[iamgroot_rivals225093]

It’s interesting how the perceived north bracket is kinda waiting on what happens in Elmhurst Friday night.

It just goes to show that there are two days of championship games on Thanksgiving weekend after all and that the schools that play on Friday night deserve at least a bit of attention. (tl;dr: There are classes below 5A)

 

[STIX815]

Not to be the “BUT THE SPARTANS” guy (which I am)…but SF also was poised to have their best team that year. Absolutely trounced everyone on their schedule that spring, IC included. I think automatically handing the theoretical title to SHG in 2020/2021 would be silly given how strong JCA and SF were that season.

All... Don't forget that RB had about two-thirds of their team back in the shortened spring season coming off an 2019 state title in which they DISMANTLED the 4A field. I'd take the 2020 RB team over SF and JCA, and then whoever came out of the South, including SHG. RB was LOADED that year. I thought they had a serious chance to repeat prior to COVID derailing that season. All just opinions of course.

 

[USD24]

All... Don't forget that RB had about two-thirds of their team back in the shortened spring season coming off an 2019 state title in which they DISMANTLED the 4A field. I'd take the 2020 RB team over SF and JCA, and then whoever came out of the South, including SHG. RB was LOADED that year. I thought they had a serious chance to repeat prior to COVID derailing that season. All just opinions of course.

I'm pretty sure if they would have played a 2020 fall season, both JCA and SHG would have been in 5A, so they would have not played RB in the playoffs.

 

[STIX815]

I'm pretty sure if they would have played a 2020 fall season, both JCA and SHG would have been in 5A, so they would have not played RB in the playoffs.

Good point. Probably would have had to play IC again that year. I'm guessing some of these 4A schools are wishing they were 5A this year. That looks easier to win than 4A...

 

[The_Oldfan]

I disagree. I think JCA beats them in 2020/21, but we will never know.

Strictly imaginary, I know. But this is the kind of 'past projection' that makes Calpreps fun. 'Twould have been a hell of a game.


neutral field
[2020] Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 35, [2020] Joliet Catholic Academy (Joliet, IL) 31

 

[USD24]

Strictly imaginary, I know. But this is the kind of 'past projection' that makes Calpreps fun. 'Twould have been a hell of a game.


neutral field
[2020] Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 35, [2020] Joliet Catholic Academy (Joliet, IL) 31

FWIW
[2020] Joliet Catholic Academy (Joliet, IL) 31, [2020] St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 30

neutral field
[2020] Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 35, [2020] St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 28

 

[The_Oldfan]

FWIW
[2020] Joliet Catholic Academy (Joliet, IL) 31, [2020] St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 30

neutral field
[2020] Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 35, [2020] St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 28

We have almost a bye week this week. Valiant but utterly undermanned Springfield Southeast (aside: no sympathy, they have routinely killed us in basketball and track over the years). I'm leaning hard to being disloyal to my own this week to see that IC/SF game (NFHS. 7:15 CDT)

 

[pjjp]

Take it for what it's worth. In Soucie's latest projection, SHG moved from two schools below the 3A line to two schools above the 4A line. Richmond-Burton is now 4-deep in the 4A field. He claims SHG could still move to 3A, but R-B is virtually assured of being 4A.

 

[pjjp]

In reading this thread, FWIW, I'm in the camp of SHG just catching JCA at the wrong time. Not sure how significant historical records are in this case. Ken Leonard has proven (does this even need to be stated?) that when he has the horses, SHG tends to win the title. He has the horses this year, it will be a major upset if anyone beats the Cyclones, IMO. But, as others have pointed out, who saw ESL losing last year in 6A?

 

[CCHS-Fan]

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the JCA/SHG match-ups over-the-years!
Great games.

 

[iamgroot_rivals225093]

We have almost a bye week this week. Valiant but utterly undermanned Springfield Southeast (aside: no sympathy, they have routinely killed us in basketball and track over the years). I'm leaning hard to being disloyal to my own this week to see that IC/SF game (NFHS. 7:15 CDT)

FWIW, their Pixellot has worked fine in the past so the stream should be good.

 

[4hhsbulldog]

Take it for what it's worth. In Soucie's latest projection, SHG moved from two schools below the 3A line to two schools above the 4A line. Richmond-Burton is now 4-deep in the 4A field. He claims SHG could still move to 3A, but R-B is virtually assured of being 4A.

How about Highland? Does Souc have them 5A lock or still could move down to 4A?

 

[foneguy2]

How about Highland? Does Souc have them 5A lock or still could move down to 4A?

he has them as the biggest school in 4A

 

[4hhsbulldog]

No thank you. That would be just awful for them lol

 

[The_Oldfan]

No thank you. That would be just awful for them lol

What? You don't want to meet Rochester in the quarter for the opportunity to meet SHG in the semi? 4A looks nastier by the day. Is it too late to petition up?

FWIW, their Pixellot has worked fine in the past so the stream should be good.

Anything would be better than SHG's stream (single fixed location camera, no zoom, limited traverse and frequent brown outs due presumably due to insufficient bandwidth t

 

[4hhsbulldog]

I am counting 26 teams with enrollment between Highland and SHG at 5 or more wins. I project two more with good chance of winning at 4 wins and another 4 teams with toss ups to slight underdogs in enrollment between them. Would need all of those games to ensure different classes. Of course a few smaller teams pushing Highland back up to 5A could also get them away from SHG.

 

[4hhsbulldog]

4A would be very nasty. Would much prefer 5A as far as a path to Champaign.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... If Soucie's projection with Highland would hold Morris would firmly be in the north bracket. Ratsy

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

What? You don't want to meet Rochester in the quarter for the opportunity to meet SHG in the semi? 4A looks nastier by the day. Is it too late to petition up?

Anything would be better than SHG's stream (single fixed location camera, no zoom, limited traverse and frequent brown outs due presumably due to insufficient bandwidth t

Better than the sideline camera they used to have. You ONLY saw the two opposing teams' lines (offensive vs. defensive) and almost none of the field. At least now you get a good view of the action except at the extreme northwest side of the north end zone and some of northwest (Cyclone side) side line. I 'll take that over the lousy setup they had before. And I can live w/o the zoom feature as long as I can see the whole field as plays develop.