First off...extremely low confidence this far out, but due to it being a holiday with a lot of traveling and the Egg Bowl I'm just going ahead and throwing this out there. Do not alter any plans on this.
Last few days the GFS has been showing a storm system affecting the region around Thanksgiving day. The latest run has sped it up to it impacting the area the Wednesday before. What it has also done is introduce a severe threat...especially for the southern half of the state. Now, tomorrow morning it may all be gone, but given the aforementioned circumstances I wanted to at least mention it. With the model runs at least gaining consistency in the storm system developing, about all that can be said with any confidence (still not very high)is that sometime in the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe there looks to be some inclement weather. As far as saying whether it will be severe all I can say is climatologically we are entering the heart of our fall severe weather season where severe weather is not out of the ordinary. On that Wednesday, the GFS is showing temperatures in the mid 70's to upper 70's with dew points in the mid 60's to near 70. Upper air pattern has a neutral to slightly positively tilted low pressure system that will bring in decent speed and directional shear. Not as much as if it was negatively tilted, but enough. So if this storm system develops with this combination of instability and wind shear, the stage will be set for the possibility of severe weather.
For now, make plans as usual, but at least kick around a plan B just in case. Better to have that thought out and it end up being sunny and 50 than not have any plan B and end up trying to fry that turkey in a tornado warning.
Last few days the GFS has been showing a storm system affecting the region around Thanksgiving day. The latest run has sped it up to it impacting the area the Wednesday before. What it has also done is introduce a severe threat...especially for the southern half of the state. Now, tomorrow morning it may all be gone, but given the aforementioned circumstances I wanted to at least mention it. With the model runs at least gaining consistency in the storm system developing, about all that can be said with any confidence (still not very high)is that sometime in the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe there looks to be some inclement weather. As far as saying whether it will be severe all I can say is climatologically we are entering the heart of our fall severe weather season where severe weather is not out of the ordinary. On that Wednesday, the GFS is showing temperatures in the mid 70's to upper 70's with dew points in the mid 60's to near 70. Upper air pattern has a neutral to slightly positively tilted low pressure system that will bring in decent speed and directional shear. Not as much as if it was negatively tilted, but enough. So if this storm system develops with this combination of instability and wind shear, the stage will be set for the possibility of severe weather.
For now, make plans as usual, but at least kick around a plan B just in case. Better to have that thought out and it end up being sunny and 50 than not have any plan B and end up trying to fry that turkey in a tornado warning.
