I know if we just win the games we’re supposed to win that we’re in, but I have a sneaky suspicion that we’ve seen the last victory of the year. Tell me I’m crazy. Be honest, who else is getting worried?
Talk me off the ledge
- Thread starter ouchmyknee
- Start date
Any game can be won or loss but I believe we will win all games except
Michigan and possibly Minnesota
Rutgers offense is concerning but five of the six games Rutgers has a very realistic chance of winning.They only need to win three games.and Northwestern and Nebraska should be the easiest to win if Rutgers has a pulse on offense.
U have to be kidding? The team is back playing hard and with the athletes we have - just the hard effort will get us 3 more wins. Don't let Iowa confuse you. That was a mixture of bad matchup, away game, and refs playing a role. We smoke northwestern tomorrow watch
I think you are crazy. Rutgers will be in (and also win more games) in my opinion...
well in Lunardis bracket we are currently a 6 seed as of this moment. it would take a colossal let down at this point
Can I push you off the ledge?
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anon_xekqhstck0ygt
Guest
I hope you are correct. We will
play hard that should not be an issue but will we rebound , attack the rim , box out ? Will we make our free throws? Will we play team defense? Will we make or 3 point shots? Will we see the old or new Ron Harper Jr.? These games are not a sure win if we come out half assed.
NW is a feisty team that comes back from big deficits.
If you’re not playing on all cylinders...they’ll beat your ***
If you’re not playing on all cylinders...they’ll beat your ***
We were at the RAC though.
Minny is 13-1 (6-1 B1G) at home, including 4 wins against teams currently ranked in the top 25. They're a different team at the Barn. We will be an underdog in that game.
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anon_xekqhstck0ygt
Guest
makes sense (didn't realize their home record) but imo beating a team makes the game winnable. but your point is valid. thanks
uh oh... maybe we should ask for a redo at Minny?
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anon_xekqhstck0ygt
Guest
You are a Rutgers fan so it is totally understandable to be out there. I need to see win number 14 until I feel comfortable. Like you I will assume we will lose every game and wont't breathe easy until we get Win 14.
Versus Iowa we shot like crap and Myles got in early foul trouble and we lost by 13 on the road. We got effort.
Against NW I need to see 2 out of 3 things to get our next victory
1. Shoot is in the same ball park as NW
2. Myles not be in major foul trouble
3. effort
If we get only 1 out of 3 it will be a very difficult game
Versus Iowa we shot like crap and Myles got in early foul trouble and we lost by 13 on the road. We got effort.
Against NW I need to see 2 out of 3 things to get our next victory
1. Shoot is in the same ball park as NW
2. Myles not be in major foul trouble
3. effort
If we get only 1 out of 3 it will be a very difficult game
What has a better chance of occurring?
A. Myles Johnson making his next 3 free throws
B. Rutgers not making NCAA tournament (based on on court performance)
Iowa would have beaten any team in the league the way they were shooting (& fouls getting away with) last night..Rutgers overall may have shot poorly,, but they did not play that bad. Certainly good enough to win most of the remaining games. Magic number is 3..
We had no business losing the Wisconsin game. The announcers even said so. That was a ranked opponent. In a game we shot 10% from 3 and 28% from charity. We still should’ve won because it’s hard to lose games where you outrebound the opponent by 15.
There’s something very wrong if we don’t dominate the glass that way in the game against Nebraska. Can we shoot as badly there? Sure. Even still. The objective announcers couldn’t believe we found away to lose that Wisconsin game based on the way we dominated the paint. We missed a nauseating number of put back bunnies in the game. Could that happen again? Of course. But the 6 point loss was vs. ranked Wisconsin. This would be a drastically less talented Q3-4 opponent. It would easily be the worst RU loss in many years. A bad opponent that also matches up poorly with RU.
There’s something very wrong if we don’t dominate the glass that way in the game against Nebraska. Can we shoot as badly there? Sure. Even still. The objective announcers couldn’t believe we found away to lose that Wisconsin game based on the way we dominated the paint. We missed a nauseating number of put back bunnies in the game. Could that happen again? Of course. But the 6 point loss was vs. ranked Wisconsin. This would be a drastically less talented Q3-4 opponent. It would easily be the worst RU loss in many years. A bad opponent that also matches up poorly with RU.
Myles Johnson making next 3 free throws, approximately 13.76% (37.1% career FT percentage cubed)
Rutgers not making NCAA tournament, approximately 12.40% (Bartorvik model)
Last win of the season? C'mon, man. *sigh* Let's do this with probability again. Assume a very negative outlook of 25% chance of winning each of the remaining home games and at Nebraska. Assume a 10% chance of winning at Michigan or at Minnesota. Odds of losing all six of those games = 0.75^4 * 0.9 * 0.9 = 25.6%.
Assume a more realistic (but still pessimistic IMO) 50% chance of winning each of the remaining home games plus Nebraska and this changes to a 5% chance.
We are going to win tomorrow night.
I put our chances of losing out at roughly 0.15%. It's probably slightly higher because I don't buy that the game results are completely independent (maybe Geo, Ron, and Myles all ran into each other at top speed?) but it's definitely under 1%.
Good call, Myles Johnson percentage is actually 5.11%.
"The Ledge"? Spent a goodly amount of time there, on the "Ledge" during my years on the Banks. Lots of good live music. Good times. Yes.
So, should you find yourself there, embrace it. Enjoy it.
As for RU BB, ease up and enjoy what 2021 offers.
So, should you find yourself there, embrace it. Enjoy it.
As for RU BB, ease up and enjoy what 2021 offers.
We are a lock with 3 wins and might even sneak in with 2. If we can’t do that, we don’t deserve to be in. Simple as that.
has to get its own thread if he nails 3 in a row tomorrow