Straightforward Math

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think there are 2 magic numbers and the combinations of who we beat or lose to the rest of the way don’t matter for an odd change. 6 more total wins and 4 more conference wins gets us in - all combos.

That’s similar to saying 19 wins - but I don’t think there’s a path to an at large bid going 3-5 in the next 8 - even with a deep tourney run. How many 15 loss teams have ever made it? It’s a low number and the few that did played really tough OOC schedules. We won’t get it that way IMO so we probably need to go 4-4 in the next 8 to be in the at large picture. Thoughts?

 

[kcg88]

We have no chance at making it at 10-10 unless we win the conference tournament.

11-9 is unlikely, we'd need other bubble teams to lose and no bid thieves (like Oregon State and Georgetown last year) or a big run in the conference tournament, or maybe we'd need all three to happen.

12-8 and we should feel confident, HOWEVER this could mean we're the 5 seed in the conference tournament playing the winner of 12/13 so there's danger of picking up a Q3 loss there. That's a bridge to cross later though. Getting to 12-8 will be very difficult.

 

[rubigtimenow]

I do believe that 19 wins gets us in. Even if that’s 10-10 and then a run to the conference finals. With that said, I’m not close to dreaming about making 19. I felt pretty good going into the msu game but the next 4 are just really really tough.
(I think 17 is the magic number for NIT.)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I do believe that 19 wins gets us in. Even if that’s 10-10 and then a run to the conference finals. With that said, I’m not close to dreaming about making 19. I felt pretty good going into the msu game but the next 4 are just really really tough.
(I think 17 is the magic number for NIT.)

It’s instinctive to think that way because 10-10 in the big would usually put us in striking range with a good tourney showing, but we really screwed up OOC against a very bad schedule.

We already have 7 losses vs. teams that aren’t going to make the field. We need to beat PSU to avoid an 8th. There must be a way to look it up - I think it may be around 5 teams EVER to get at large bigs with 15 losses and I’m pretty sure all of them had that many losses because they played insanely hard comprehensive schedules. We didn’t.