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Stats don't lie

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Bluevalley33

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Mar 17, 2013
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After last season I got on the "maybe we are turning this around" bandwagon so I did some digging.

Dana since 2011 is 49-33 as a head coach.

WVU has been ranked 36 times over those 82 games. WVU is 20-16 when ranked.

Dana's record against quality opponents is not so good.
Over the 82 games WVU is 4-17 against ranked opponents. 2-14 against ranked opponents since Geno left.
WVU is 1-10 against top 10 opponents
WVU is 0-4 following a bye week against a ranked opponent
WVU is 1-11 against ranked opponents at Night
WVU has lost its last 3 night games
WVU is 0-7 against its last 7 ranked opponents during night games
WVU has lost its last 9 consecutive games against ranked opponents

I don't know about you but you really have to ask yourself do you think we are being competitive? You have to go back to 10/18/14 against #4 Baylor to find a quality win against a ranked opponent.

Let that sink in.
 
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers_rivals

Freshman
May 29, 2001
20,973
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Bluevalley33 said:
After last season I got on the "maybe we are turning this around" bandwagon so I did some digging.

Dana since 2011 is 49-33 as a head coach.

WVU has been ranked 36 times over those 82 games. WVU is 20-16 when ranked.

Dana's record against quality opponents is not so good.
Over the 82 games WVU is 4-17 against ranked opponents. 2-14 against ranked opponents since Geno left.
WVU is 1-10 against top 10 opponents
WVU is 0-4 following a bye week against a ranked opponent
WVU is 1-11 against ranked opponents at Night
WVU has lost its last 3 night games
WVU is 0-7 against its last 7 ranked opponents during night games
WVU has its last 9 consecutive games against ranked opponents

I don't know about you but you really have to ask yourself do you think we are being competitive? You have to go back to 10/18/14 against #4 Baylor to find a quality win against a ranked opponent.

Let that sink in.
Click to expand...
Good research. As you know, I prefer to do research before I reach conclusions.
Now the question is: Who would come to WVU for what we're paying Dana who would definitely do a better job than Dana? Look how Butch Jones, who was a hot "catch," is floundering at Tennessee. Phil Fulmer won 74.5% of his Vols games, but Lane Kiffin was a 53.8% disaster, Derek Dooley was even worse at 41.7% and Butch is 58.8% for the Vols despite two 9-4 seasons that aren't good enough for Tennessee fans.

You can't just dump a coach, or a supervisor at your business, without having a better option lined up. Otherwise, you get into a death spiral.

And Nick Saban isn't coming here.

Bluevalley33 said:
After last season I got on the "maybe we are turning this around" bandwagon so I did some digging.

Dana since 2011 is 49-33 as a head coach.

WVU has been ranked 36 times over those 82 games. WVU is 20-16 when ranked.

Dana's record against quality opponents is not so good.
Over the 82 games WVU is 4-17 against ranked opponents. 2-14 against ranked opponents since Geno left.
WVU is 1-10 against top 10 opponents
WVU is 0-4 following a bye week against a ranked opponent
WVU is 1-11 against ranked opponents at Night
WVU has lost its last 3 night games
WVU is 0-7 against its last 7 ranked opponents during night games
WVU has its last 9 consecutive games against ranked opponents

I don't know about you but you really have to ask yourself do you think we are being competitive? You have to go back to 10/18/14 against #4 Baylor to find a quality win against a ranked opponent.

Let that sink in.
Click to expand...
 
Orlaco

Orlaco

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Dec 13, 2007
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers said:
Good research. As you know, I prefer to do research before I reach conclusions.
Now the question is: Who would come to WVU for what we're paying Dana who would definitely do a better job than Dana? Look how Butch Jones, who was a hot "catch," is floundering at Tennessee. Phil Fulmer won 74.5% of his Vols games, but Lane Kiffin was a 53.8% disaster, Derek Dooley was even worse at 41.7% and Butch is 58.8% for the Vols despite two 9-4 seasons that aren't good enough for Tennessee fans.

You can't just dump a coach, or a supervisor at your business, without having a better option lined up. Otherwise, you get into a death spiral.

And Nick Saban isn't coming here.
Click to expand...

You’re right...you don’t just dump a coach without a plan.

The question is....should we start working on one ?
 
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TejasFan

Redshirt
Jun 13, 2004
905
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Dana ain't going no where. I am against throwing money at a new coach. Dana is putting entertainment on the playing field and the Mountaineers are very competitive in the Big. What more do you want? Warez
 
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers_rivals

Freshman
May 29, 2001
20,973
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Orlaco said:
You’re right...you don’t just dump a coach without a plan.

The question is....should we start working on one ?
Click to expand...
Who would you choose who would come here for Dana money and do better than Dana? After all, then Oliver Luck picked Dana he was a hot offensive coordinator candidate. Pitt wanted him, too, so Luck had to act fast.
 
Orlaco

Orlaco

Senior
Dec 13, 2007
29,525
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers said:
Who would you choose who would come here for Dana money and do better than Dana?
Click to expand...

I actually am still good with Dana.

That’s part of the planning...right ? Keep our eyes open. Plus, if something (someone) isn’t working out you don’t take ‘it’s the best we got (can get)’approach. Roll the dice on yet another young guy.

Dana wasn’t exactly in high demand as a head coach when we hired him...you know ? He certainly has yet to do anything special at WVU (Clemson trashing was great).

Don’t fear change but at the same time don’t walk away prematurely from a large investment. Fair ?
 
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Rootmaster

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Apr 16, 2011
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So....if we don't think there is a better coach available...or will be...then we are supposed to be content with ok as the status quo forever? Cuyahoga I just want to understand your researched logic on this one. Really, all the excuses for coaching under performance gets old. Great programs demand results reflected in wins and don't just settle. I, for one, am tired of the current thinking that being West Virginia means just being average at best. There are always options available. WVU can be great, it just takes the right coach with the right vision.
 
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Bluevalley33

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Mar 17, 2013
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When I put this thread together it was to lay out what I could find in terms of meaningful stats. I was not intending it to suggest we need to fire Dana. As I sat there like many of you Saturday after the game with that same nasty taste in my mouth, I started to ask myself when was our last really good win? I mean c'mon we have good talent as the NFL draft would validate, where are the wins? Why have we lost these games? 9 consecutive losses to ranked teams? Holy B-jeeezus we stink against the better teams. We have maybe 3 ranked teams left on our schedule. Why should we think we have a chance to win those games?
 
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers_rivals

Freshman
May 29, 2001
20,973
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Bluevalley33 said:
When I put this thread together it was to lay out what I could find in terms of meaningful stats. I was not intending it to suggest we need to fire Dana. As I sat there like many of you Saturday after the game with that same nasty taste in my mouth, I started to ask myself when was our last really good win? I mean c'mon we have good talent as the NFL draft would validate, where are the wins? Why have we lost these games? 9 consecutive losses to ranked teams? Holy B-jeeezus we stink against the better teams. We have maybe 3 ranked teams left on our schedule. Why should we think we have a chance to win those games?
Click to expand...

Another pretty fair coach who got WVU to a national title game against Notre Dame and an undefeated season till the bowl game against Florida, Don Nehlen, lost EIGHT bowl games in a row from 1987 to 1998. And he is a Hall of Fame coach! Rich Rodriguez had a national title waiting to be snared till he encountered a 4-7 Pitt team. Maybe it's not as easy as you think to win big every year at WVU?

Like the warrior in Monty Python's "Holy Grail" who keeps fighting after he loses both arms and both legs, I won't give up on this season. I still think WVU is capable of winning every game left on the schedule to finish first in the Big 12. I'd rather be a cockeyed optimist than a party-pooper pessimist any day.

We have the weapons to do it. But we have to stop being Barney Fife and shooting ourselves in the foot.

M istakes by special teams + absence of Simms & Long = loss to Virginia Tech, 31-24

O bliterated East Carolina, 56-20

U nhinged Delaware State, 59-16

N ot sharp but beat Kansas, 56-34

T ops statistically but tough loss to TCU, 31-24

A nnihilate Texas Tech

I ncinerate Baylor

N ullify Oklahoma State

E rectile dysfunction Iowa State

E masculate Kansas State

R eam Texas

S hock Oklahoma

 
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TejasFan

Redshirt
Jun 13, 2004
905
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Bluevalley33 said:
After last season I got on the "maybe we are turning this around" bandwagon so I did some digging.

Dana since 2011 is 49-33 as a head coach.

WVU has been ranked 36 times over those 82 games. WVU is 20-16 when ranked.

Dana's record against quality opponents is not so good.
Over the 82 games WVU is 4-17 against ranked opponents. 2-14 against ranked opponents since Geno left.
WVU is 1-10 against top 10 opponents
WVU is 0-4 following a bye week against a ranked opponent
WVU is 1-11 against ranked opponents at Night
WVU has lost its last 3 night games
WVU is 0-7 against its last 7 ranked opponents during night games
WVU has lost its last 9 consecutive games against ranked opponents

I don't know about you but you really have to ask yourself do you think we are being competitive? You have to go back to 10/18/14 against #4 Baylor to find a quality win against a ranked opponent.

Let that sink in.
Click to expand...

The Mountaineers (the stats don't lie) aren't really competitive but they are entertaining. A fan pays his money to be entertained. Period. Holgs teams are certainly entertaining. The Mountaineer budget won't pay for a NC nor will the budget pay for more than 7-10 wins. Get over it. Warez
 
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers_rivals

Freshman
May 29, 2001
20,973
78
0
Bluevalley33 said:
After last season I got on the "maybe we are turning this around" bandwagon so I did some digging.

Dana since 2011 is 49-33 as a head coach.

WVU has been ranked 36 times over those 82 games. WVU is 20-16 when ranked.

Dana's record against quality opponents is not so good.
Over the 82 games WVU is 4-17 against ranked opponents. 2-14 against ranked opponents since Geno left.
WVU is 1-10 against top 10 opponents
WVU is 0-4 following a bye week against a ranked opponent
WVU is 1-11 against ranked opponents at Night
WVU has lost its last 3 night games
WVU is 0-7 against its last 7 ranked opponents during night games
WVU has lost its last 9 consecutive games against ranked opponents

I don't know about you but you really have to ask yourself do you think we are being competitive? You have to go back to 10/18/14 against #4 Baylor to find a quality win against a ranked opponent.

Let that sink in.
Click to expand...

About that headline:

Stats don't line

When I posted how WVU won all the stats against TCU I was told that the only stat that counts is the final score. So, do stats lie or not? I use them all the time to research BEFORE I reach a conclusion. But a lot of people reach conclusions first even when the numbers don't support it.

If WVU can stop being Barney Fife and shooting itself in the foot we'll have a good season and might even finish first in the Big 12. Why not? No one else seems to want the title.


M istakes by special teams + absence of Simms & Long = loss to Virginia Tech, 31-24

O bliterated East Carolina, 56-20

U nhinged Delaware State, 59-16

N ot sharp but beat Kansas, 56-34

T ops statistically but tough loss to TCU, 31-24

A nnihilate Texas Tech

I ncinerate Baylor

N ullify Oklahoma State

E rectile dysfunction Iowa State

E masculate Kansas State

R eam Texas

S hock Oklahoma
 
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WVU80ate_rivals

Redshirt
Jun 10, 2003
4,243
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Why do several fans act like WVU is some second rate program with no money to spend? WVU is paying Dana around 3.5 million a year in a P5 conference.
 
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Bluevalley33

Redshirt
Mar 17, 2013
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EEResistable said:
What is his record against teams with winning records?
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49 wins = 49 teams faced. Of those 49 teams 20 had winning records.

2011 10-3 5 out of 10 teams had winning records
2012 7-6 3 out of 7 teams had winning records
2013 4-8 2 out of 4 teams had winning records
2014 7-6 3 out of 7 teams had winning records
2015 8-5 4 out of 8 teams had winning records
2016 10-3 4 out of 10 teams had winning records
2017 3-2 0 out of 3 teams have winning records.

2017 wins East Carolina 1-5, Delaware St 0-4 and Kansas 1-4.
 
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spartansstink

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Sep 24, 2005
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There are some good and bad points.

The bad, of course, are the stats. They don't lie... and it doesn't look good at all.

On the brighter side, one has to look behind the stats. Now, when we are losing, we are losing by a touchdown or so. Remember, it wasn't that long ago we were losing to the Baylor's and Oklahoma's by about 40.

Maybe we'll get over the hump some day. Hopefully, sooner rather than later.
 
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spartansstink

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Sep 24, 2005
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Rootmaster said:
Wasn't long ago when the Mountaineers beat the Sooners either...before we switched to flag football.
Click to expand...

Very true.

But, there is an old saying that goes "Offense wins games, defense wins championships".

Until we get that defense, we aren't going to win anything more than a few games here and there anyway.
 
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Bluevalley33

Redshirt
Mar 17, 2013
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spartansstink said:
Very true.

But, there is an old saying that goes "Offense wins games, defense wins championships".

Until we get that defense, we aren't going to win anything more than a few games here and there anyway.
Click to expand...

I think this is the most true statement on this board and something I have believed for a longtime. The teams ending up in the playoffs all have top 10-15 defenses. We will never win anything as long as we stay with this 3-3-5 bend dont break philosophy. What is our defense ranked right now?
 
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WVU80ate_rivals

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Jun 10, 2003
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Bluevalley33 said:
I think this is the most true statement on this board and something I have believed for a longtime. The teams ending up in the playoffs all have top 10-15 defenses. We will never win anything as long as we stay with this 3-3-5 bend dont break philosophy. What is our defense ranked right now?
Click to expand...
In fairness, we switched back to the 3-3-5 because it’s easier to recruit those needs. We were having trouble getting the big guys to run a conventional 4-3. That’s the difference between the blueblood schools and the rest of us. It’s all about those big, fast, and strong NFL caliber DT’s, and DE’s.
 
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spartansstink

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Sep 24, 2005
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Its kind of a chicken/egg conundrum. You go to the 3-3 and all you can get are those that can play the 3-3. But I agree with your statement overall.
 
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Cuyahoga Falls Eers_rivals

Freshman
May 29, 2001
20,973
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Bluevalley33 said:
I think this is the most true statement on this board and something I have believed for a longtime. The teams ending up in the playoffs all have top 10-15 defenses. We will never win anything as long as we stay with this 3-3-5 bend dont break philosophy. What is our defense ranked right now?
Click to expand...
#77 in total yards allowed on defense.
#15 in passing defense (in the Big 12!)
#37 in rushing defense
#67 in points allowed (but, to be fair, a lot of the points and yardage came against 2nd and 3rd teams in the 3 games we won fairly easily; Kansas took a while, but became an easy victory)
Make of it what you will.
 
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ColoradoMountaineer

Freshman
Sep 2, 2007
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Rootmaster said:
So....if we don't think there is a better coach available...or will be...then we are supposed to be content with ok as the status quo forever? Cuyahoga I just want to understand your researched logic on this one. Really, all the excuses for coaching under performance gets old. Great programs demand results reflected in wins and don't just settle. I, for one, am tired of the current thinking that being West Virginia means just being average at best. There are always options available. WVU can be great, it just takes the right coach with the right vision.
Click to expand...
If people are content with 7 wins a year then why pay 3.5mil for it? Several coachs have already proven that 7 wins is attainable at wvu. The excuse makers will tell you were in the big 12 now blah blah blah. The current Trajectory of the program is beat the weak, Split with the average and get devoured by the strong. This has been par for the course for most of wvu's history. If someone is willing to accept this. Then there are probably quite a few coachs that can produce the same results. Wvu should just hire a coach for a couple years. Let them produce their average at best results and then fire them when the contract is up. You could start the same process over and over again and keep the costs down instead giving and extension. You might eventually find someone who could get wvu to a new year's six game like we had a decade ago. Its better than the cactus bowls and whatever other low level bowl game were getting now.
 
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TRU2WVU

Redshirt
Oct 10, 2017
42
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0
Bluevalley33 said:
After last season I got on the "maybe we are turning this around" bandwagon so I did some digging.

Dana since 2011 is 49-33 as a head coach.

WVU has been ranked 36 times over those 82 games. WVU is 20-16 when ranked.

Dana's record against quality opponents is not so good.
Over the 82 games WVU is 4-17 against ranked opponents. 2-14 against ranked opponents since Geno left.
WVU is 1-10 against top 10 opponents
WVU is 0-4 following a bye week against a ranked opponent
WVU is 1-11 against ranked opponents at Night
WVU has lost its last 3 night games
WVU is 0-7 against its last 7 ranked opponents during night games
WVU has lost its last 9 consecutive games against ranked opponents

I don't know about you but you really have to ask yourself do you think we are being competitive? You have to go back to 10/18/14 against #4 Baylor to find a quality win against a ranked opponent.

Let that sink in.
Click to expand...

Never thought Holgorsen was the right coach for WVU. He's done an a semi-adequate job but I don't like his style. Too bad, we're stuck with him for the next 5 seasons? Joe Moorehead will be long gone by then.
 
WVUALLEN

WVUALLEN

All-American
Aug 4, 2009
72,671
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I get the feeling if Holgorsen went 10-2 for the rest of his coaching career, People would still cry about something.
 
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WVU80ate_rivals

Redshirt
Jun 10, 2003
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WVUALLEN said:
I get the feeling if Holgorsen went 10-2 for the rest of his coaching career, People would still cry about something.
Click to expand...
If the only teams he’s beating are the FBS teams, Kansas, ECU, and schools hovering around .500 or worse; then yes, people will complain. At some point, we need to start beating teams with 8 or more wins. Is anyone else concerned we consistently out gain everyone we play in yards, but lose against the good teams? If we are gaining 600-700 total yards and losing, we have a problem.
 
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spartansstink

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Sep 24, 2005
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You have to look at why we are gaining 600 yards a game. Its because our defense can't get enough stops deep in the opposing teams territory to give us decent field position. Instead, we get the ball inside the 5 from short pooch punts and have to drive 95 yards just to score.
 
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WVU80ate_rivals

Redshirt
Jun 10, 2003
4,243
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spartansstink said:
You have to look at why we are gaining 600 yards a game. Its because our defense can't get enough stops deep in the opposing teams territory to give us decent field position. Instead, we get the ball inside the 5 from short pooch punts and have to drive 95 yards just to score.
Click to expand...
Yes, it’s Dana’s job to see it’s corrected. It’s every year. How many yards did we put on LSU a few years ago, only to lose?
 
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Bluevalley33

Redshirt
Mar 17, 2013
73
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WVU80ate said:
In fairness, we switched back to the 3-3-5 because it’s easier to recruit those needs. We were having trouble getting the big guys to run a conventional 4-3. That’s the difference between the blueblood schools and the rest of us. It’s all about those big, fast, and strong NFL caliber DT’s, and DE’s.
Click to expand...
WVU's defense is ranked 105.
 
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Rootmaster

Redshirt
Apr 16, 2011
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Defense...think about it. When WVU scores it usually is quick in terms of time of possession. When WVU goes three and out it is usually quick as well. Stir in poor special teams play and it means the defense is on the field way too many times...for way too long. Control the football. Control the clock. You will end up with a ranked defense that everyone raves about.
 
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