State's Predicted RPI

[She Mate Me]

We're in the home stretch and projections like this are becoming relevant.

Basically, if we can finish 7-5 over these last 12, we're likely to be around 10 in the RPI (which I continue to 17'n hate in terms of its relevance when better metrics are available).

So, there's a very reasonable path to a Top 16 host spot getting locked up and there's room for overachieving getting us to a Top 8 seed...

 

[Seinfeld]

Really hoping that this weekend was a complete anomaly for our starting pitching because good lord were TV and Stone awful, and it's hard to blame it on the ump or the wind blowing out when virtually every pitcher in our pen came in and shut them down.
If we can get ourselves back into the hosting picture, that's about all I'm hoping for, but no matter what... we need McPherson back in the worst way

 

[She Mate Me]

Really hoping that this weekend was a complete anomaly for our starting pitching because good lord were TV and Stone awful, and it's hard to blame it on the ump or the wind blowing out when virtually every pitcher in our pen came in and shut them down.
If we can get ourselves back into the hosting picture, that's about all I'm hoping for, but no matter what... we need McPherson back in the worst way

Ben M taking last night about being a quality starter was interesting.

Paraphrasing, but I think he said about 1/3 of the time you've got your best stuff and should dominate. 1/3 is decent stuff and you can fight through it and 1/3 you're struggling to land pitches and you've really gotta be crafty and smart to get it done.

Hopefully last two games were just bottom 1/3ds for Duke and TV.

Glad it wasn't against Texas.

 

[She Mate Me]

State's Predicted RPI up to #7 with 11 games to go. Current RPI is #15.

Florida State got swept at Stanford and went 0-4 on the week with a loss to UF as well. Coastal went 2-2 and we moved ahead of them too.

10 of the last 11 will definitely be Quad 1 games so it's peak put up or shut up time.

 

[Colonel Kang]

RPI is a horrible stat but all those G5 ADs on the committee don't want to get rid of it because it helps the G5 schools. Something about the algorithm is slanted towards equity of G5 schools

 

[She Mate Me]

RPI is a horrible stat but all those G5 ADs on the committee don't want to get rid of it because it helps the G5 schools. Something about the algorithm is slanted towards equity of G5 schools

Every data driven poll I look at that uses more data than RPI (just adding game scores in most cases), has us ranked as a clear Top 10 team and often around 5th.

It's going to balance out over the next three weeks because the last three SEC series are against the highest 3 RPI SEC teams on our schedule. We just gotta avoid a bed shatting.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

I don't know how it all works but you would think our venue should give us a leg up on hosting. The Dude is the best college baseball venue and there should be some leanings to want to take advantage of that.

 

[Colonel Kang]

Every data driven poll I look at that uses more data than RPI (just adding game scores in most cases), has us ranked as a clear Top 10 team and often around 5th.

It's going to balance out over the next three weeks because the last three SEC series are against the highest 3 RPI SEC teams on our schedule. We just gotta avoid a bed shatting.

Here is the problem is with RPI.

USM's strength of schedule is 6
MSU's strength of schedule is 30

Pull up MSU's schedule & USM's schedule & tell me what team has played vs higher level players & programs this year.

Something is badly off on the strength of schedule metrics with RPI.

 

[She Mate Me]

There are teams with very impressive resumes.

Even with our WTF two week stretch, we still have one little accomplishment nobody else has. Our worst losses are at home to RPI #29 Tennessee (yeah, three of them), and away to RPI #30 Arkansas (yeah, two of them).

Every other team in the country has multiple losses to teams with RPIs below 30.

 

[Nugdawg]

Here is the problem is with RPI.

USM's strength of schedule is 6
MSU's strength of schedule is 30

Pull up MSU's schedule & USM's schedule & tell me what team has played vs higher level players & programs this year.

Something is badly off on the strength of schedule metrics with RPI.

Throw in the fact USM has 3 losses to teams ranked over 100 in the RPI and I can’t make their rankings make sense. We haven’t had a loss outside of the top 30 RPI.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I don't know how it all works but you would think our venue should give us a leg up on hosting. The Dude is the best college baseball venue and there should be some leanings to want to take advantage of that.

I liked the good ol days where we could just outbid everybody.

 

[patdog]

I don't know how it all works but you would think our venue should give us a leg up on hosting. The Dude is the best college baseball venue and there should be some leanings to want to take advantage of that.

They really don't care about attendance at regionals. At all. I think there are certain minimums you have to meet (like maybe 3,000 capacity and lights so you can play night games), but other than that it's pretty much all RPI.

 

[Xenomorph]

The NCAA's reliance on RPI isn't changing any time soon. We need to learn how to game the system. All it would take is some minor tweaks in how we schedule (or don't schedule) ~12 games and we'd be sitting pretty right now.

 

[MStateDawg]

View attachment 1272811

That predicted "7" has us sweeping A&M in College Station which seems highly unlikely: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2026/team-predict-schedule?team=Mississippi-State

 

[patdog]

Crazy thing about "predicted RPI". Last week our predicted RPI was #17. We swept a bad LSU team (although they did predict us to only take 2) and it moves all the way to #7.

 

[quickstrike2]

The SOS of schedule is definitely an interesting component. I also think the non-conference is off with its weighting. The RPI specifically breaks that number out, so it has to have a lot of weight. I think USM gets maximum credit for playing 5 SEC games in the non-conference, where we may not get as much credit for playing 30 SEC games, really 31.

 

[She Mate Me]

That predicted "7" has us sweeping A&M in College Station which seems highly unlikely: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2026/team-predict-schedule?team=Mississippi-State

Yeah, I saw that. It also has us losing two at home to Auburn. The specific results make little sense, but the overall outcome record wise is similar to what would be expected looking at the schedule. My feel says expected would be tossup with OM, 1 at Texas, 2 vs Auburn, 1 at TAMU and 1 vs Nicholls. So 5 or 6 wins expected.

Even if we don't get 7 wins, I think 5 or 6 puts us squarely in the Top 16 and hosting with the RPI boost we're getting just playing these top level games.

 

[She Mate Me]

Crazy thing about "predicted RPI". Last week our predicted RPI was #17. We swept a bad LSU team (although they did predict us to only take 2) and it moves all the way to #7.

There's obviously something way off about how it predicts individual game results as indicated by the prediction of us sweeping in College Station.

That's why I only start paying attention late in the season. There's no question we're going to help our RPI if we can perform decently against all the Quad 1 teams we're about to play.

 

[johnson86-1]

I liked the good ol days where we could just outbid everybody.

They really don't care about attendance at regionals. At all. I think there are certain minimums you have to meet (like maybe 3,000 capacity and lights so you can play night games), but other than that it's pretty much all RPI.

Yup. Just our luck that the one place where the NCAA isn't a complete ***** for money is in baseball, the one place where we'd actually produce top 16 revenue for the NCAA anytime we made it to a regional if they let us bid.

 

[patdog]

There's obviously something way off about how it predicts individual game results as indicated by the prediction of us sweeping in College Station.

That's why I only start paying attention late in the season. There's no question we're going to help our RPI if we can perform decently against all the Quad 1 teams we're about to play.

Yeah. They e got us losing 2 of 3 to Auburn at home then sweeping A&M on the road. Thats very unlikely.

 

[Darryl Steight]

Yeah. They e got us losing 2 of 3 to Auburn at home then sweeping A&M on the road. Thats very unlikely.

No Pat, I think we could very easily lose 2 to Auburn**

 

[patdog]

No Pat, I think we could very easily lose 2 to Auburn**

Heck, with this team not much would surprise me. Good or bad.

 

[Villagedawg]

Heck, with this team not much would surprise me. Good or bad.

It's not out of the realm of possibility/maybe even likely that we get swept in one or more of the last three conference series. I'm wondering where we land if we only win 3 more conference games plus Nichols. Would we absolutely have to have the Ole Miss mid week?

 

[She Mate Me]

Damn y'all are some sourpusses on a team that's won 8 in a row and is 34-10 on the season.

Anything could happen, but I'm not quickly coming down on the woe is us column. We could have a bad weekend. I don't see us having 3 of them. And we're playing good teams, but this ain't the Dodgers. They have college kids (mostly) playing for them too.

 

[leeinator]

Really hoping that this weekend was a complete anomaly for our starting pitching because good lord were TV and Stone awful, and it's hard to blame it on the ump or the wind blowing out when virtually every pitcher in our pen came in and shut them down.
If we can get ourselves back into the hosting picture, that's about all I'm hoping for, but no matter what... we need McPherson back in the worst way

On the bright side.....if, and a big IF.......we can get McPherson back in full form before his injury....AND.....if, maybe we saw the coming out party for Jack Bauer on Saturday evolve into the hurler we all hoped he'd be....by regional play, then that would be a Gargantuan Tectonic shift in our pitching staff.

 

[She Mate Me]

Speaking of sourpusses. Y'all remember Huntdawg? He would be all up in these threads the last few years telling everybody what's what about basically everything.

I just looked and he seems to have just disappeared about this time last year, unless he's under a different name.

 

[Seinfeld]

On the bright side.....if, and a big IF.......we can get McPherson back in full form before his injury....AND.....if, maybe we saw the coming out party for Jack Bauer on Saturday evolve into the hurler we all hoped he'd be....by regional play, then that would be a Gargantuan Tectonic shift in our pitching staff.

Absolutely. With a healthy McPherson back and Saturday night's version of Bauer, it would be difficult to find a better set of 4 starting pitchers anywhere. Plus, I like the idea of Foster coming out of the pen for a few innings way more than I like him starting. Guys like him, Sweeney, and Billingsley are gonna have it one night and then they're gonna be a trainwreck the next. It's a lot easier to pull the plug on the off nights when they're coming in from of the pen than it is when you badly need 4-5 innings out of your starter.

 

[paindonthurt]

State's Predicted RPI up to #7 with 11 games to go. Current RPI is #15.

Florida State got swept at Stanford and went 0-4 on the week with a loss to UF as well. Coastal went 2-2 and we moved ahead of them too.

10 of the last 11 will definitely be Quad 1 games so it's peak put up or shut up time.

View attachment 1272811

Does 6-5 keep us top 8?

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

The WarrenNolan predictor now has us finishing 18-12 in the SEC

 

[She Mate Me]

Does 6-5 keep us top 8?

I think that's bubble territory for Top 8. 7-4 is close to a lock

 

[She Mate Me]

I feel like Ole Miss is going to really want that game tomorrow. They don't need to lose to us 4 times.

I guess we've got Pitzer ready to go, which should be good.

 

[paindonthurt]

I think that's bubble territory for Top 8. 7-4 is close to a lock

We need 7-4 but someone may die in the district if we achieve it.

 

[patdog]

I feel like Ole Miss is going to really want that game tomorrow. They don't need to lose to us 4 times.

I guess we've got Pitzer ready to go, which should be good.

Meh. Both teams want it. But that has very little to do with who wins. It’s which team pitches & hits better. I don’t think wants it more matters as much as people like to think it does in any sport. But it would matter least in baseball.

 

[Pak Drescott]

I feel like Ole Miss is going to really want that game tomorrow. They don't need to lose to us 4 times.

I guess we've got Pitzer ready to go, which should be good.

Sweeney was announced as the starting pitcher for tomorrow. I'd imagine we're going with the pitch by committee approach so should still see Pitzer and several others

 

[leeinator]

I feel like Ole Miss is going to really want that game tomorrow. They don't need to lose to us 4 times.

I guess we've got Pitzer ready to go, which should be good.

Yeah, this is the biggest OOC game for us barring the UCLA loss.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Seems like the weather may win tomorrow night!

 

[M_over_S]

RPI is a horrible stat but all those G5 ADs on the committee don't want to get rid of it because it helps the G5 schools. Something about the algorithm is slanted towards equity of G5 schools

Yeah, feels like especially so this year. I mean I just don’t understand how USM’s RPI is holding up, it’s insane. Their non con schedule wasn’t even that good

That’s their non conference weekend series games. I mean, some decent teams sure, but that’s no gauntlet that sets your RPI up to become untouchably high and weather the whole conference schedule. It’s not just bc they play strong midweeks, look we play USM twice and Ole Miss once just like we do and ole Miss does, they added bama too, wow big deal.

that’s their Midweek slate, so basically like I said, typical midweek slate: the Mississippi big 3 midweek series, and Bama.

this combo of non con weekends and midweeks does not come close to making up for the difference in a sun belt 30 game schedule and a SEC 30 game schedule. It’s not even close, by any stretch of the imagination. Yet USM’s keeps taking 2 of 3 from South Alabama’s in the world and their RPI is plastered to the top 10. I don’t get it

here’s the conference slate for good measure. Make it make sense.

 

[She Mate Me]

Yeah, feels like especially so this year. I mean I just don’t understand how USM’s RPI is holding up, it’s insane. Their non con schedule wasn’t even that good
View attachment 1273921
That’s their non conference weekend series games. I mean, some decent teams sure, but that’s no gauntlet that sets your RPI up to become untouchably high and weather the whole conference schedule. It’s not just bc they play strong midweeks, look we play USM twice and Ole Miss once just like we do and ole Miss does, they added bama too, wow big deal.
View attachment 1273923
that’s their Midweek slate, so basically like I said, typical midweek slate: the Mississippi big 3 midweek series, and Bama.

this combo of non con weekends and midweeks does not come close to making up for the difference in a sun belt 30 game schedule and a SEC 30 game schedule. It’s not even close, by any stretch of the imagination. Yet USM’s keeps taking 2 of 3 from South Alabama’s in the world and their RPI is plastered to the top 10. I don’t get it

here’s the conference slate for good measure. Make it make sense.


View attachment 1273924

I'm not going to go through their whole schedule, but it's pretty high quality if you look at it honestly. They played a much better non conference than we did and the Sun Belt ain't the SEC but it's still a strong baseball conference.

They haven't played a single SWAC team, so they don't have teams with records like 3-34 Alcorn weighing them down.

We've played 3 SWAC teams along with 3' game series against Hofstra, Delaware and Lipscomb. all have losing records and the best RPI of the bunch is 135.

Bama, big deal, you say? Bama's RPI is 7. They have 3 game conference series against teams with RPI's of 37, 47, 51 and 60. Those are as good as or better than our series with USC, LSU and Vandy RPIwise.

Also, the toughness of their conference schedule is about to drop off significantly, while ours is about to ratchet up significantly, so it'll even out some. But we gotta win games for that to happen.

 

[615dawg]

Yeah, feels like especially so this year. I mean I just don’t understand how USM’s RPI is holding up, it’s insane. Their non con schedule wasn’t even that good
View attachment 1273921
That’s their non conference weekend series games. I mean, some decent teams sure, but that’s no gauntlet that sets your RPI up to become untouchably high and weather the whole conference schedule. It’s not just bc they play strong midweeks, look we play USM twice and Ole Miss once just like we do and ole Miss does, they added bama too, wow big deal.
View attachment 1273923
that’s their Midweek slate, so basically like I said, typical midweek slate: the Mississippi big 3 midweek series, and Bama.

this combo of non con weekends and midweeks does not come close to making up for the difference in a sun belt 30 game schedule and a SEC 30 game schedule. It’s not even close, by any stretch of the imagination. Yet USM’s keeps taking 2 of 3 from South Alabama’s in the world and their RPI is plastered to the top 10. I don’t get it

here’s the conference slate for good measure. Make it make sense.


View attachment 1273924

USM played the RPI game PERFECTLY this season

Started with UCSB - who is a top 40 RPI

Road game at SE Louisiana - who is a top 100 RPI

Purdue, Oregon State and Baylor - all top 60 with OSU being top 10

Alabama - a top 10 RPI

Series with La Tech - top 75 RPI

Beat us in Hattiesburg - top 15 RPI

They were 12-1 before they faced a sub 100 RPI team, and it was #112 Nichols and a series with #164 UNA.

Ole Miss - top 15 RPI

Then their Sun Belt series

47 Arkansas State
60 Troy
105 App State
138 Old Dominion
51 Louisiana
37 Texas State
84 South Alabama

Mix in another game with State and a couple with Tulane/SE Louisiana

They have not played a game against a team with higher than a 164 RPI. We have played 10. Ole Miss has played/will play 6.

They have the weakest teams in the SBC left so their RPI will drop.

142 ULM
149 JMU
223 Georgia Southern


More Tulane, SE Louisiana, South Alabama, Troy, Samford and less Alcorn/Grambling/Jackson State/Delaware

 

[patdog]

Yeah, feels like especially so this year. I mean I just don’t understand how USM’s RPI is holding up, it’s insane. Their non con schedule wasn’t even that good
View attachment 1273921
That’s their non conference weekend series games. I mean, some decent teams sure, but that’s no gauntlet that sets your RPI up to become untouchably high and weather the whole conference schedule. It’s not just bc they play strong midweeks, look we play USM twice and Ole Miss once just like we do and ole Miss does, they added bama too, wow big deal.
View attachment 1273923
that’s their Midweek slate, so basically like I said, typical midweek slate: the Mississippi big 3 midweek series, and Bama.

this combo of non con weekends and midweeks does not come close to making up for the difference in a sun belt 30 game schedule and a SEC 30 game schedule. It’s not even close, by any stretch of the imagination. Yet USM’s keeps taking 2 of 3 from South Alabama’s in the world and their RPI is plastered to the top 10. I don’t get it

here’s the conference slate for good measure. Make it make sense.


View attachment 1273924

We'd win 48 games in regular season with that schedule.